BlackMask Breaking News

Jan 18 (Reuters) – Microsoft Corp (MSFT.O) said on Wednesday it would cut 10,000 jobs by the end of the third quarter of fiscal 2023, the latest sign that layoffs were accelerating in the U.S. technology sector as companies brace for an economic downturn. The layoffs and costs related to hardware-portfolio and other changes will result in a charge of $1.2 billion in the second quarter of fiscal 2023, representing a negative impact of 12 cents on per share profit, Microsoft said. In a note to staff, shared with Reuters, Microsoft Chief Executive Satya Nadella said customers wanted to “optimize their digital spend to do more with less” and “exercise caution as some parts of the world are in a recession and other parts are anticipating one.” The news of layoffs, reported by media publications on Tuesday, follows some reductions last year. Microsoft said in July last year that a small number of roles had been eliminated, while news site Axios in October reported that the company had laid off under 1,000 employees across several divisions.

Global oil demand is set to rise by 1.9 mb/d in 2023, to a record 101.7 mb/d, with nearly half the gain from China following the lifting of its Covid restrictions. Jet fuel remains the largest source of growth, up 840 kb/d. OECD oil demand slumped by 900 kb/d in 4Q22 as weak industrial activity and weather effects lowered use, while non-OECD demand was 500 kb/d higher.

World oil supply growth in 2023 is set to slow to 1 mb/d following last year’s OPEC+ led growth of 4.7 mb/d. An overall non-OPEC+ rise of 1.9 mb/d will be tempered by an OPEC+ drop of 870 kb/d due to expected declines in Russia. The US ranks as the world’s leading source of supply growth and, along with Canada, Brazil and Guyana, hits an annual production record for a second straight year.

Russian oil exports fell by 200 kb/d m-o-m in December to 7.8 mb/d, as crude shipments to the EU declined after the EU crude embargo and G7 price cap came into effect. Russian diesel exports surged to a multi-year high of 1.2 mb/d, of which 720 kb/d was destined for the EU. Record discounts for Russian benchmark Urals grade saw Russian revenues slip by $3 bn m-o-m to $12.6 bn.

Two wild cards dominate the 2023 oil market outlook: Russia and China. This year could see oil demand rise by 1.9 mb/d to reach 101.7 mb/d, the highest ever, tightening the balances as Russian supply slows under the full impact of sanctions. China will drive nearly half this global demand growth even as the shape and speed of its reopening remains uncertain.

NN BlackMask Blog: Dodging the bullet no more

To view the complete report click on the link below:

IEA (2023), Oil Market Report – January 2023, IEA, Paris

Jan 17 (Reuters) – Microsoft Corp (MSFT.O) plans to cut thousands of jobs with some roles expected to be eliminated in human resources and engineering divisions, according to media reports on Tuesday. The expected layoffs would be the latest in the U.S. technology sector, where companies including Amazon.com Inc (AMZN.O) and Meta Platforms Inc (META.O) have announced retrenchment exercises in response to slowing demand and a worsening global economic outlook. Microsoft’s move could indicate that the tech sector may continue to shed jobs. “From a big picture perspective, another pending round of layoffs at Microsoft suggests the environment is not improving, and likely continues to worsen,” Morningstar analyst Dan Romanoff said. U.K broadcaster Sky News reported, citing sources, that Microsoft plans to cut about 5% of its workforce, or about 11,000 roles. The company plans to cut jobs in a number of engineering divisions on Wednesday, Bloomberg News reported, according to a person familiar with the matter, while Insider reported that Microsoft could cut recruiting staff by as much as one-third. The cuts will be significantly larger than other rounds in the past year, the Bloomberg report said. Microsoft declined to comment on the reports. The company had 221,000 full-time employees, including 122,000 in the United States and 99,000 internationally, as of June 30, according to filings. Microsoft is under pressure to maintain growth rates at its cloud unit Azure, after several quarters of downturn in the personal computer market hurt Windows and devices sales. It had said in July last year that a small number of roles had been eliminated. In October, news site Axios reported that Microsoft had laid off under 1,000 employees across several divisions.Shares of Microsoft, which is set to report quarterly results on Jan. 24, were marginally higher in late afternoon trading. NN: Microsoft joins a growing list of investment banks and high tech companies telling us all is well as they slash and burn their model to reduce costs….. Something smells like Anchovies in Denmark

China’s top economic official told an audience of international billionaires and bankers that his country’s economy will likely rebound to its pre-pandemic growth trend this year after coronavirus infections passed their peak. Vice Premier Liu He addressed the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland, just hours after Beijing released better-than-expected economic data for the fourth quarter, fueling hopes of a more rapid recovery in 2023. With Chinese gross domestic product expanding just 3% for the whole of last year, Liu expressed confidence of a return to the rates of close to 6% witnessed prior to the Covid-19 shock. “We are confident China’s growth will most likely return to its normal trend,” Liu said, adding that life in China had been “restored to normal” following the lifting of pandemic restrictions. Beijing’s focus this year will be on boosting domestic demand, which will lead to a notable increase in imports, Liu said. Addressing the wave of Covid infections which has strained hospitals in China, Liu said that the peak of infections had passed and consumption-related industries have returned to normal. Liu, a close confidante of China’s President Xi Jinping, sought to allay international concern that Beijing is turning away from globalization to focus on self-sufficiency. “China’s national reality dictates that opening up to the world is a must, not an expediency,” Liu said.  “We must open up wider and make it work better. We oppose unilateralism and protectionism,” he said, adding that opening up “is a key driver of economic progress.” Liu also tried to address concerns that Beijing is clamping down on private businesses. He said a return to a planned economy was impossible, while a government drive for “common prosperity” does not mean enforcing strict equality, and requires entrepreneurial effort.  Several Davos delegates pointed to a reopened China as reason to be tentatively optimistic about the global economic outlook. “The lockdown of the last three years has created pent-up demand domestically, so I would see increased domestic consumption and of course the manufacturing sector will pick up,” said Laura Cha, chair of Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing Ltd. “All those will be good factors for global growth.”

Citing a growth forecast of around 4.5% for China this year, Credit Suisse Group AG Chairman Axel Lehmann said “I would not personally be surprised when that would be topped.”

DP World Chairman and CEO Sultan Ahmed Bin Sulayem told Bloomberg Television that China’s emergence from Covid Zero will be a key factor in boosting international trade. NN: it seems to me the world is underestimating 1.4 billion captives being set free. After the Chinese New Year die off and mass inoculation through infections it will be of to the races… As far as the premature celebration about the ha ha ha victory over inflation, that party is about to be busted. Energy prices and raw materials like cooper prices are what are driving the inflation indexes. No China little demand prices dropped. That is all about to change. Prices are not only done dropping, they will soon soar again…… So much for the victory over inflation myth.

Morgan Stanley Q4 EPS plunges 37% to $1.26

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said in its monthly report released on Tuesday that it now expects the global economy to grow by 2.8% in 2022 and by 2.5% in 2023. The 2022 figure marks a slight upward revision from its previous forecast, while the figure for 2023 is unchanged, APA reports citing Teletrader. The US GDP growth was revised up to 1.7% for this year and was unchanged at 0.8% for 2023, while the Eurozone economy is still seen growing 3% in 2022 and 0.3% next year. China’s economic growth outlook was also unchanged 3.1% in 2022 and at 4.8% for 2023, while the Russian economy is now seen contracting 5% this year and growing 0.2% next year. The report stressed that the upward revisions resulted from “slightly better-than-expected” GDP reports in several economies but warned that risks to growth remain “skewed downward” due to high inflation, monetary tightening by central banks, supply chain issues and geopolitical uncertainty. NN: if i count and my fingers and toes i come up with 2 to 3 million BPD in increased demand….

• Two fifths fear company failure within decade, PWC poll finds
• Inflation, volatility and geopolitical conflict top risk list

The World Economic Forum’s annual meeting began in Davos with corporate executives and economists warning a global recession is likely this year. Of 4,410 business leaders surveyed by PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP in October and November last year, 73% predicted global growth to decline over the coming 12 months. The reading was the worst since the consulting firm began polling in 2011. Two out of five even expressed concern their companies may not last a decade.  A separate survey of chief economists, released by the Forum, found two-thirds expect a worldwide recession in 2023 as businesses cut costs; 18% viewed such a downturn as “extremely likely.” The concerns are likely to be rife this week as more than 2,700 executives, bankers and economists head to the Swiss ski resort of Davos for the first time in January since 2020. While recent data has raised hopes economies can still pull off a soft landing, last year’s surge in inflation and the subsequent hiking of interest rates by central banks have many braced for economies to contract. PWC global chairman Bob Moritz nevertheless said the level of concern in his company’s poll was probably overstated. Expectations of a slowdown are baked into predictions because people have seen it coming for a long time, he said. Compared with the financial crisis in 2008, bosses are more fearful for the economy now but are more confident that their companies will “manage through this downturn.”

Business leaders’ confidence in their own company’s growth prospects dropped the most since the 2008 crisis.

This year’s big three risks are inflation, macroeconomic volatility and geopolitical conflict, the survey found. PWC’s Moritz said the main surprise has been the long-term outlook, with 40% of chief executives convinced “their organizations will not be economically viable in 10 years if they do not transform.” He said: “The short term is about how to manage cost pressures and the longer term is about supply chains, climate, technological disruption.” Bosses need to take action now to “survive two years to thrive in the next 10” while ensuring they have the capital to deploy for the future. Last year, chief executives were worried about cyber, health and climate threats. Moritz said the climate crisis remained an urgent issue. “I’m not concerned it’s dropped down the lists. Things are relative — 60% to 70% of chief executives are already taking action,” he said. Geopolitical threats are not isolated to Russia and China. “If Russia-Ukraine can happen, what else?” Moritz asked. “What about the Middle East and the role of Iran? Even the Inflation Reduction Act in the US is a potential risk.” The IRA’s hundreds of billions of dollars of subsidies for clean energy projects is causing geopolitical tensions in Europe. On staffing, 60% of bosses do not plan to reduce headcount and 80% will not cut compensation as they hang on to employees rather than go through expensive recruitment processes. Staff churn is expected to be high once again this year.  “Power remains with workers who have the right skills,” Moritz said. Business leaders in France, Germany and the UK are even less optimistic about domestic growth than global expansion. However, the UK has improved as a chosen business location with chief executives ranking it the third most important country for revenue growth, behind the US and China and equal with Germany. It has previously never ranked higher than fourth.