BlackMask Breaking News

Jan 12 (Reuters) – Federal Reserve policymakers on Thursday expressed relief that inflation continued easing in December, paving the way for a possible step down to a quarter point interest rate increase when the U.S. central bank meets in just under three weeks. U.S. consumer prices fell in December in the first month-to-month decline in more than 2-1/2 years, and underlying inflation slowed, government data showed on Thursday. In the 12 months through December, the so-called core CPI increased 5.7%, the smallest gain since December 2021 and fresh evidence the Fed’s aggressive rate increases are having the desired effect. “We are in fact constraining the economy and presumably in the process constraining inflation. That means for me I can be a little more nuanced,” in deciding the size of upcoming rate increases, Richmond Federal Reserve president Tom Barkin said in comments to reporters in Richmond. After raising rates by half a point at its December meeting, Barkin said he was “in concept supportive of a path that is slower but longer and potentially higher” depending on how inflation behaves. “Hikes of 25 basis points will be appropriate going forward,” Philadelphia Fed president Patrick Harker said in a speech to a local group in Malvern, Pennsylvania, adding that once rates get just above 5%, “I expect that…will be restrictive enough that we will hold rates in place to let monetary policy do its work.” NN: Stupidity. Inflation has not “moderate” its still zooming ahead at 6.5% year over year. An the FED is not Not NOT done raising interest rates. Its going to raise them slower for longer. This is notNotNot good news for the markets or the economy. Because this means a longer sharper recession… Let them have their WallStreet circle jerk… Next stop for starters is a 25% plunge in the stock market. Then things will really get going. The street wants you to believe that the stock market will have a big rally. As they baton down the hatches, preparing for the coming depression… Look at the chart below titled.  US inflation shows signs of slowing… its rate of growth…..The Critical core PCE and core CPI have leveled off…… they are flat lining at above 5%. They have to drop to 2% before the Fed is done….. And that my friend is a long way to go!

A second haul of classified documents belonging to President Biden have been located, a new report revealed Wednesday — two days after the White House admitted secret papers were kept at an office the commander-in-chief used after leaving the Obama administration. NBC News reported the new documents were found at a separate location from the Penn Biden Center for Diplomacy and Global Engagement in Washington, where an initial tranche of 10 sensitive files — some of them marked “top secret” — were retrieved on Nov. 2, 2022. It was not immediately clear when or where the second group of documents were found, when they date from, and what level of classification they have been given. The first batch of 10 documents included intelligence memos and other materials concerning Iran, Ukraine and the United Kingdom, CNN reported Tuesday. The papers were dated between 2013 and 2016 and mixed in with Biden family documents, including details on the funeral arrangements for the president’s late son, Beau. Biden made his first public comments about the matter Tuesday during a news conference in Mexico City, saying he was “surprised” to learn that records from the Obama White House had been found at his office in the Penn Biden Center — which he used for almost two full years after leaving the vice presidency. “I don’t know what’s in the documents,” the president said. “My lawyers have not suggested I ask what documents they were. I’ve turned over the boxes, they’ve turned over the boxes to the [National ]Archives, and we’re cooperating fully, cooperating fully with the review, which I hope will be finished soon, and there’ll be more detail at that time.” Chicago US Attorney John Lausch, an appointee of former President Donald Trump, reportedly has submitted a preliminary report on the documents to Attorney General Merrick Garland. It is not clear whether Lausch only reviewed the documents recovered from the Penn Biden Center or whether he had access to any other documents that may have been found. On Wednesday, White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre deflected further questions about the scandal, citing what she called the “ongoing process.”  At one point in the briefing, which took place just before the report emerged that additional documents had been found, Jean-Pierre was asked: “There are no assurances that you can provide at this point that there are no other classified documents out there in any other office and/or home?” “Again, this is an ongoing process, so I’m going to let the process continue,” Jean-Pierre said. “It is being reviewed by the Department of Justice, and I’m just going to leave it there.” Privately, an administration official told The Post that the White House was reluctant to shed more light on the document issue because “anything you say could potentially f— up” the Justice Department review by appearing to influence the process.While Democrats and Biden allies have tried to absolve the 80-year-old president of wrongdoing by claiming that the documents were immediately turned over to the National Archives upon their discovery, that does not explain why the papers were allowed to leave the White House and be kept out of federal custody for almost six full years. It’s also unclear what the lawyers who found the documents at the Penn Biden Center were looking for or why they were clearing out an office that apparently sat unused for more than three years. It’s also not known where else the documents may have been kept before the Penn Biden Center opened in February 2018. Republicans, meanwhile, have expressed outrage at the difference in treatment of Biden and former President Donald Trump, 76, who is under a federal investigation led by special counsel Jack Smith for storing classified information at his Mar-a-Lago resort after leaving office in January 2021. “If you believe a special counsel’s necessary to assure the public about the handling of classified documents by Donald Trump, you should apply a special counsel to the mishandling of classified documents by President Biden when he was vice president,” Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) told Fox News.

“The idea of prosecuting President Trump for mishandling classified information after this has gone down dramatically.”

“Special counsel,” Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) reacted to the latest report on Twitter Wednesday. “How many classified documents did this guy have?” asked the House GOP’s official Twitter account. “‘Totally irresponsible,’” quipped House Oversight Committee Chairman James Comer (R-Ky.), referring to Biden’s comment about Trump’s retention of documents in a Sept. 18 “60 Minutes” interview.

“Did the @FBI raid the Biden Center?” asked the House Judiciary Committee, a reference to the Aug. 8 sweep that removed dozens of classified documents from Mar-a-Lago.

“No one is buying the White House is telling us the truth,” Rep. Darrell Issa (R-Calif.) tweeted succinctly. In addition to the DOJ and FBI investigation, the House Oversight Committee is launching its own investigation into why the initial discovery — which came six days before the midterm elections — was not made public at once.

Crude oil inventories rose by 14.865 million barrels, American Petroleum Institute (API) data showed on Tuesday, as refining activity begins to return to normal following previous weather-related shutdowns. U.S. crude inventories increased 13 million barrels over the course of 2022, according to API data, while crude stored in the nation’s Strategic Petroleum Reserves sunk by 221 million barrels.

The large build in commercial crude oil inventories comes as the Department of Energy released 0.8 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserves in the week ending January 6, leaving the SPR with just 371.6 million barrels. The SPR now contains the least amount of crude oil since early December 1983. It also comes as refiners were still working to restart refineries after cold-induced shutdowns.  U.S. crude oil production rose to 12.1 million bpd in the final week of the year, bringing the total production increase for 2022 to 400,000 bpd , and 1 million bpd lower than peak production seen in March 2020 NN: These are the missing barrels showing up… And their is a lot of excess barrels that need to be burned off… After the COVID die off China will come to the rescue

Stock-market optimism that the peak of inflation is behind us leaves little room for error, says Kramer of Mott Capital Management

Investors should not have unrealistic expectations regarding the pace at which U.S. inflation subsides in 2023, analysts argue, ahead of Thursday’s consumer price index report for December which may test the mild rally in stocks in the new year and may determine the size of the Federal Reserve’s next interest rate rise in February. The December CPI reading from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which tracks changes in the prices paid by consumers for goods and services, is expected to show a 6.5% rise from a year earlier, slowing from a 7.1% year-over-year rise seen in the previous month, according to a survey of economists by Dow Jones. The core price measure that strips out volatile food and fuel costs, is expected to rise 0.3% from November, or 5.7% year over year.  The December CPI will be particularly important for influencing the Fed’s decision in its upcoming meeting which concludes February 1, said economists at Pimco. They expect the inflation and labor market data will have moderated sufficiently will push the central bank to pause rate hikes before their May meeting.  “After hiking 50 basis points at the December meeting, we expect the Fed moves to a 25bp hiking pace in early February, and ultimately pause around 5%,” wrote Pimco’s economists Tiffany Wilding and Allison Boxer, in a Tuesday note.  However, since the Fed’s December meeting, officials have relentlessly signaled the central bank will need to raise interest rates above 5% in order to get inflation to the 2% target, with no interest rate cuts expected this year. Fed funds futures traders now see a 78% likelihood of a 25 basis point hike at its February meeting, and a 68% chance of another in March, which would bring the terminal rate to merely 4.75-5% by mid-year, according to the CME FedWatch tool. After two lower-than-expected CPI readings, which have given the market hope that inflation will melt away quickly, the December reading for inflation is essential to keep alive the market’s hopes for falling inflation, Michael J. Kramer, founder of Mott Capital Management said in a Monday note. “Inflation swaps currently see inflation falling below 2.5% by the summer of 2023, which seems hopeful,” Kramer said. “This week’s CPI reading will be essential in maintaining that view and could prove disastrous if CPI comes in hotter than expected, veering market-based inflation expectations off course.” The stock market is looking for an “around 5%” increase in December’s core inflation, said Rhys Williams, chief strategist at Spouting Rock Asset Management. “If you get a number in the low four [percent], the stock-market rally will continue. The market is very hyper-focused on data points.”  U.S. stocks had a positive start to 2023 with hopes that cooling inflation and a potential recession may persuade the central bank to ease off the pace at which it is raising its policy interest rate.  Williams thinks inflation is coming down but it will not hit the central bank’s 2% mark by summer 2023. “I think at some point the markets will realize, ‘oh we can’t get to 2%,” and then the markets probably do sell off on that. I think maybe in short term [the stocks go] up and then in the second quarter, they go back down as people realize that 2% is not realistic,”

Jan 10 (Reuters) – Wells Fargo & Co (WFC.N) will slim down its home lending business by reducing its mortgage servicing portfolio and exiting the correspondent lending business, the company said on Tuesday. “We are making the decision to continue to reduce risk in the mortgage business by reducing its size and narrowing its focus,” Kleber Santos, the bank’s chief executive for consumer lending, said in a statement. Demand for mortgages and refinancing has weakened as U.S. interest rates climbed, making it more costly to buy homes. The slowdown prompted Wells Fargo to cut thousands of jobs in is mortgage unit across the country last year. The company will report fourth-quarter results on Friday. Analysts expect a profit of 62 cents a share, compared with $1.25 in the year ago quarter, according to data from Refinitiv. The bank also plans to invest an additional $100 million to advance racial equity in home ownership, it said. In December, the U.S. Consumer Financial Protection Bureau hit Wells Fargo with its largest ever civil penalty as part of a $3.7 billion agreement to settle charges over widespread mismanagement of car loans, mortgages and bank accounts. NN:  They are not stopping being Americas biggest mortgage originator because things are good. Remember they see the deterioration in the housing markets first. They are getting out while the getting is good. Remember the foreclosure monster of the 2008 wipeout…. Well their back!