Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, in his most hawkish remarks to date, said the US central bank will keep raising interest rates until there is “clear and convincing” evidence that inflation is in retreat. “What we need to see is inflation coming down in a clear and convincing way, and we’re going to keep pushing until we see that,” Powell said Tuesday during a Wall Street Journal live event. “If that involves moving past broadly understood levels of ‘neutral,’ we won’t hesitate at all to do that.” NN: I want to be clear here. We have warned for over 2 years that inflation was embedded and the Fed was fucking up royally. We now have the double whammy of an over stimulated economy and a full blown energy crises that will not go away anytime soon… I have revised my interest rate prediction. I now see the Fed raising rates to 10% WITH NO REPRIEVE. This is a unmitigated disaster that changes the orbit of the planet.
Turkey’s Erdogan Puts the Brakes on NATO’s Nordic Expansion
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said he won’t allow Sweden and Finland to join NATO because of their stances on Kurdish militants, throwing a wrench into plans to strengthen the western military alliance after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
At a press conference in Ankara late Monday, Erdogan poured cold water on expectations that Turkish opposition to the enlargement plan could be easily resolved. The remarks were his clearest indication that he intends to block membership for the two countries, or at least extract concessions for it, since they announced their intentions to join over the weekend.
“These two countries lack a clear stance against terrorism” and “Sweden is a nesting ground for terrorist organizations,” Erdogan said. He also said that Turkey wouldn’t allow countries that impose “sanctions” on Turkey to join NATO, an apparent reference to restrictions on weapons sales imposed by several European nations. At the heart of the matter is Erdogan’s deep resentment against NATO allies for what he sees as their refusal to take seriously Ankara’s concerns about Kurdish militants operating inside Turkey and across its borders in Syria and Iraq. Turkey wants its perception of the threat to be acknowledged by all NATO members, and says risk priorities should be harmonized across the alliance. Luxembourg Foreign Minister Jean Asselborn said Tuesday that Erdogan is using the situation as a negotiating ploy to try to extract concessions, including in the country’s efforts to buy F-35 fighter jets from the US. “This bazaar mentality is present in Turkey and also in its chief, in Erdogan, we know that,” Asselborn said on Germany’s Deutschlandfunk radio. “I think he’s just pushing up the price, but at the end of the day I’m convinced that Turkey can’t put the brakes on this.” The Pentagon ousted Turkey from the program to buy — and help build — Lockheed Martin Corp.’s F-35 in July 2019, after Erdogan’s government purchased the Russian-made S-400 missile system. In September, Turkey sent a formal request to the US to buy 40 new F-16 Block 70 aircraft and nearly 80 kits from Lockheed Martin to modernize its existing fighters. Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu plans to meet Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Wednesday and discuss the issue, with any deal potentially worth as much as $6 billion.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg had said he expected to work through the last-minute wrinkle to the enlargement plan. But that looks unlikely to happen immediately, with Erdogan saying Monday that officials from Sweden and Finland planning to visit Ankara for talks shouldn’t even bother coming. NN: Another Europe wet dream to stop Putin suffers erectile dysfunction. Reality is NATO is a bureaucratic joke. The idea Europe can embargo Russian oil another joke. And as far as Russian gas goes maybe 5 years it can be replaced. Here is a reality check… The WORLD does not have 5 years. Billions of people will suffer food and energy shortages. Borders between countries will change. Ukrains is just the start. Hyper inflation in some parts of the world is starting. The starving hordes will start a mass migration. Starving masses of desperate people will swamp the democracies of the world fleeing in desperation starvation and oppression. Remember its takes energy and petroleum based fertilizer and chemicals to grow food
Leaked EU Memo Details Emergency Gas Supply Shock Measures
The European Union is gearing up to release emergency measures for a full-scale gas supply shock on Wednesday, with a leaked memo calling for a range of potential actions, from a controversial cap on gas prices to the creation of a new buyers’ “cartel”.
“A different set of measures may become worth considering in the event of a sudden large scale or even full disruption of the supplies of Russian gas leading to unbearably high gas prices and inadequate supply of gas,” the European Commission said in the leaked memo, published by Euractiv.com.
One measure being considered is temporarily capping prices to give customers a reprieve and to reduce inflationary pressure. However, this is a controversial measure that the Commission itself finds dangerous. Natural gas prices in Europe have historically fallen below 30 euros per MWh, but are now hovering around 100 euros per MWh, and at some points have surpassed 200 euros per MWh, the Commission said, leading to a massive increase in wholesale electricity prices because gas-fired power plants tend to drive prices in the bloc’s power markets. The Commission also noted that energy prices are expected to remain high for the remainder of this year, and even into 2024-2025. Price caps, say many market stakeholders, is one emergency measure in the Commission’s “Toolbox” that should be avoided at all costs. “Short-term price interventions could remove the interest of market participants to hedge against the risk of high prices in the future,” the leaked memo notes, citing an EU official as saying that price caps could lead to lower storage injection, “which must be avoided by any means”. Instead, some stakeholders are promoting the creation of a “buyer’s cartel”. German Green MEP Michael Bloss, coming out against a price cap, instead has called for a buyers’ cartel. “The price of gas will fall if G7 only buys gas for a low price. For this, we need courage and creativity and must not simply surrender to the absurdly high gas prices,” he said. Russia cut off gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria in late April for their refusal to pay using a ruble scheme. Late last week, Russia threatened to cut off gas supplies to Finland over Helsinki’s decision to apply for fast-tracked NATO membership. NN:I do not care how many times they tell you the spin. I do not care how high the stacks of bibles they swear on. Europe cannot replace Russian oil, natural gas or distillates. And since we are on the subject of swearing, the world cannot replace Russian/Ukraine grains, cooking oils, metals and fertilizers they supply. Oh yes i almost forget to mention uranium and petroleum based plastics and chemicals..
Hungary: Supporting coal sanctions didn’t mean oil as well
Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto told reporters on Monday that although the country has previously supported the coal sanctions at the “explicit request of Poland” that did not mean that it would automatically support a complete energy ban on Russia. He reiterated that such sanctions are a red line for Hungary. The foreign minister stated that Hungary can live with the current EU sanctions package “if [Russian oil shipments via pipeline] are exempted.” Earlier, EU officials shared that due to the strong stance of certain countries the bloc is having difficulties coming to a unanimous decision on the oil embargo. NN If Russian crude does not go to Europe it will go to India or China or transferred ship to ship and end up back in Europe: This oil embargo so far has not happened. Its a nothing burger
‘Very, very high’ risk of recession, warns Goldman’s Lloyd Blankfein
There’s “a very, very high risk factor” that the U.S. is headed for a recession, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Senior Chairman Lloyd Blankfein warned Sunday. In an interview on CBS News’ “Face the Nation,” Blankfein said there is definitely a risk of recession, and that business and consumers should brace for one.
““If I were running a big company, I would be very prepared for it. If I was a consumer, I’d be prepared for it. But it’s not baked in the cake.””
— Lloyd Blankfein
But he added that there’s a “narrow path” for the Fed to use its “very powerful tools” to avoid a recession. “I think they’re responding well,” he told host Margaret Brennan, according to a transcript. Blankfein added that the Fed has no choice but to keep raising interest rates to slow down consumer demand. “And that’s going to involve some pain,” he said. While noting that some inflationary factors — such as the war in Ukraine and supply-chain crunches — are transitory and will eventually go away, until then, “it’s going to be quite difficult and oppressive” for lower-income individuals as prices rise.
Jeff Bezos accuses Biden of ‘misdirection’ over inflation causes and solutions
Blankfein said that while inflation has been stoked by extra fiscal spending spurred by the COVID-19 pandemic, he doesn’t necessarily blame the government for doing all it could to prevent another financial meltdown. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell admitted last week that the central bank was too slow to start raising interest rates to fight inflation. NN: as you are seeing SLOWLY they are letting the public know they fucked up big time. I have seen commodity shocks, energy shocks and interest rates shocks… all were a disaster. I have never seen all 3 hitting at the same time….We are talking a depression here.
China industrial production declines 2.9% in April……….China’s retail sales drop 11.1% in April
China’s industrial production contracted in April, falling 2.9% year-over-year, according to a Monday report by the Chinese National Bureau of Statistics. Compared to the previous month, the added value of China’s industrial enterprises fell by 7%. Regarded by category, the added value of the mining industry in April increased 9.5% year-over-year, the manufacturing industry fell by 4.6%, while the electricity, heat, gas and water production climbed 1.5%. In terms of economic types, the added value of state-controlled enterprises declined by 2.9% on a yearly basis in April, as the joint-stock companies inched up 0.5%. Furthermore, foreign-invested companies, along with Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan-invested firms, dropped 16.1%, while private enterprises went down 1.1%.
China’s retail sales drop 11.1% in April
China’s retail sales went below analyst expectations to plunge by 11.1% in April, landing at 2.9 trillion yuan, the Chinese National Bureau of Statistics showed in a Monday report. Furthermore,
April retail sales of consumer goods in urban areas amounted to 2.6 trillion yuan, down 11.3% year-over-year, while the monthly retail sales in rural areas were 385 billion yuan, marking a 9.8% fall.
In terms of consumption category, the April retail sales of food and beverages dropped 22.7% on a yearly basis, while commodity retail suffered a 9.7% decline. NN: Shocking!! This is a game changer. The Chinese slow down is now a major factor in my analysis. China the worlds factory and second largest economy can not be ignored. My initial analysis that Chinese Covid lock downs were temporary and isolated has changed. They have got a great big problem that only be described as a covid induced economic wipe out. This has two serious implications for us. The first is i have to rethink global energy consumption numbers. My calculations indicate serious oil demand destruction. This means that global oil consumption will fall as the domino effect of Chinese shutting shut down ripples through the world economy. And second severe supply chain disruptions driving goods shortages and higher prices which will create demand destruction. As a reult I took profits on our oil trade Friday and am moving to the sdie lines on oil as we await further data. For now oil may have been granted a temporary reprieve.
US faces ‘most challenging energy crisis’ in 50 years
United States Oil and Gas Association President Tim Stewart explained on Saturday the country is facing the ‘most challenging energy crisis’ in 50 years under the Biden administration as “diesel and gasoline prices are at all-time highs and inventories at all-time lows.” In an interview with Fox News, Stewart explained the Biden administration is not doing enough to help the country get out of record-high gasoline and diesel prices, adding that the administration has “no strategy” to solve the soaring prices. On Saturday, prices of gas and diesel increased to $4.45and $5.56 per gallon respectively in the United States. NN: Biden is a hostage to the grenniewinnies and that is why he fails to grasp the fact the world is in a no shit energy crises. This will end very badly…..
IEA sees world weathering lost Russian oil supply
LONDON (Reuters) – The world will not be left short of oil even with lower output from sanctions-hit Russia, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Thursday, after it cut its predictions for supply losses from the world’s No.2 exporter for the second straight month. The IEA is now forecasting that 1 million barrels per day (bpd) was lost in April, compared to 1.5 million bpd predicted last month and 3 million forecast in March as some refiners in Europe shun Russian crude ahead of a future import ban.
Production ramping up elsewhere and slower demand growth due to China’s lockdowns will forestall a big deficit, the Paris-based IEA said.
“Over time, steadily rising volumes from Middle East OPEC+ and the U.S. along with a slowdown in demand growth is expected to fend off an acute supply deficit amid a worsening Russian supply disruption,” the IEA said in its monthly oil report. The assessment by the Paris-based agency suggests the economic impact from further sanctions on Russian energy mulled by the European Union could be limited. “Soaring pump prices and slowing economic growth are expected to significantly curb the demand recovery through the remainder of the year and into 2023,” the IEA said, adding that curbs aimed at containing COVID-19 in China were driving an extended economic slowdown there. Reflecting slower products exports and falling domestic demand, around a million barrels per day (bpd) of Russian oil was shut in last month – about half a million bpd less than the agency forecast last month. The IEA sees that figure rising to 1.6 million bpd in May, to 2 million in June and to nearly 3 million from July onwards if sanctions deter further buying or expand. The United States and fellow IEA members pledged to release 240 million barrels of oil in their second tapping of emergency stores this year after the IEA sat out a U.S.-led release in November because it saw no major supply disruption at the time. [L2N2WY2DE] Russian exports rebounded in April by 620,000 bpd from the month before to 8.1 million bpd, the IEA said, back to their January-February average as supply was rerouted away from the United States and Europe, primarily to India. As it works on a ban on Russian oil, the European Union remained the top market for Russian oil exports last month, the IEA said, down just 535,000 bpd from the start of the year. The bloc now accounts for 43% of Russian oil exports, down from around 50% then. NN: Sanctions are a bit stalled. I think European leaders are starting to run the numbers.What i have seen is a lot of chest beating….. But behind the scenes they are caving. Most European countries have agreed to Russia demand to be paid in rubles making banking and currency sanctions mute. And quietly the embambaro on Shipping companies transporting Russia oil have been lifted. And a total embargo on Russian crude oil entering Europe has not been issue yet. And the final agreement make take a year or more to implement.
JPMorgan Slashes Demand Outlook Amid Soaring Oil Prices
- JP Morgan revised its forecast for oil demand this year down by 1 million barrels daily.
- JP Morgan sees total oil demand averaging 100 million bpd in 2022, 400,000 bpd below 2019 levels
JP Morgan revised its forecast for oil demand this year down by 1 million barrels daily, citing high oil prices. Per a report by Reuters, the bank meanwhile left unchanged its price forecast for Brent crude at $114 per barrel during the current quarter, and $104 per barrel for the year. However, if another million barrels daily disappear from global supply, the bank added, Brent crude could add another $18 to $35 per barrel above its price target. BP’s CEO Bernard Looney said earlier this week Russia had already lost 1 million bpd in output and could lose another one this month. “We now see total oil demand averaging 100 million bpd, 400,000 bpd below 2019 levels,” the bank’s analysts also said. Prices meanwhile surged to over $110 per barrel for Brent and $108 for West Texas Intermediate after the European Commission announced a proposal to impose a gradual oil embargo on Russia within the next six months for crude oil and until the end of the year for oil products. Some EU members have expressed misgivings about the move because of their high dependence on Russian oil imports. Exemptions are on the table. There are other critics of this sort of embargo, too. “In the short term it might leave Russian revenues high while implying negative consequences for the EU and the global economy in terms of higher prices – not to mention retaliation risks (by Russia) on natural gas supplies,” Belgium-based think tank Bruegel said, following the EC’s announcement. However the EU decides to proceed, sanctions would also include a ban on European companies providing shipping, insurance, brokerage and financing services to Russian oil producers, to take effect in a month. This would also have a negative impact on Russian oil shipments to Europe, such as sanctions on the country’s maritime industry had earlier this year. NN: Oil between $90 to $110 a barrel is in balance. We need to see either more demand destruction of supply restriction to move oil out of this range. Until we get more information i am neutral for now!
Pfizer, EU push back COVID vaccine delivery to help booster campaign
(Reuters) – COVID-19 vaccine makers are shifting gears and planning for a smaller, more competitive booster shot market after delivering as many doses as fast as they could over the last 18 months. Executives at the biggest COVID vaccine makers including Pfizer Inc and Moderna Inc said they believe most people who wanted to get vaccinated against COVID have already done so – more than 5 billion people worldwide. In the coming year, most COVID vaccinations will be booster shots, or first inoculations for children, which are still gaining regulatory approvals around the world, they said.Pfizer, which makes its shot with Germany’s BioNTech SE, and Moderna still see a major role for themselves in the vaccine market even as overall demand declines. Upstart U.S. vaccine maker Novavax Inc and Germany’s CureVac NV, which is working with GlaxoSmithKline, are developing vaccines they hope to target at the booster market. The roles of AstraZeneca Plc and Johnson & Johnson, whose shots have been less popular or effective, are expected to decline in this market. “It becomes a very competitive game with companies battling it out with pricing and for market share, even for vaccines that are considered to be the best, like Pfizer and Moderna,” said Hartaj Singh, an analyst at Oppenheimer & Co. It is not known yet how many booster doses will be needed. Second booster shots are currently recommended in some countries for only a subset of the population. It is also unclear if vaccine makers will sell a redesigned shot this fall and each fall afterward, as flu vaccine makers do to match circulating strains, and what impact that might have on waning demand. Pfizer Chief Executive Albert Bourla said in an interview that adults who are still unvaccinated are unlikely to seek out shots now, more than two years into the pandemic. It will be the “already vaccinated” who account for demand, Bourla said. Moderna executives recently said those who would benefit from annual boosting include people over 50 and adults with other health risk factors or high-risk occupations, including healthcare workers. Moderna CEO Stephane Bancel estimated this population to be around 1.7 billion people, or some 21% of the global population.
Moderna and Pfizer/BioNTech, which make messenger RNA vaccines that can be updated somewhat quicker than those from competitors, said they are developing vaccines targeting the Omicron variant of the virus.
The United States and Western Europe – where about 600 million people are vaccinated – will remain important markets, but sales may be a fraction of what they have been, Cowen analyst Tyler Van Buren said. “The low hanging fruit is that 20%-25% of people who are so-called high risk for various reasons, and I think that is the population that is most likely to get it every year,” he said. That would be significantly less than the roughly 49% of adults in the United States and 62% of adults in Europe who have received at least one booster so far, or about 335 million people. Analysts have forecast revenue of over $17 billion for the Pfizer/BioNTech shot and $10 billion for Moderna’s in 2023, about half of the $34 billion and $23 billion they expect this year, respectively. Sales are expected to drop further from there. THE OTHER PLAYERS Johnson & Johnson, whose vaccine has been limited by a side effect that causes rare but sometimes fatal blood clots, declined to comment on whether it plans to push its shot as a booster in the fall. In April, the company rescinded its 2022 COVID-19 vaccine sales forecast, citing uncertainty. South Africa’s Aspen Pharmacare, which makes J&J’s shot in Africa, warned of weak demand. Aspen CEO Stephen Saad in an interview said, “there is going to be a place for boosters … but it is not at the volumes you had before.” AstraZeneca CEO Pascal Soriot said in late April that its shot will still have a role in fighting the pandemic. “We believe this vaccine still has a potential, it’s very easy to administer and distribute,” he said. “The volume in the future will be less because people probably will only need one booster per year and not everybody will take it.” NN: I am getting worried that our booster wane in potency and after 5 months our protection falls off dramatically. Also new variants are getting around the present vaccines. Hopefully the RNA vaccine makers will offer a NEW booster shot targeting the new variants that will be upon us this fall.