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Home foreclosures surge 181%

Weekly U.S. crude oil production figures by the Energy Information Administration are a closely watched data set, but monthly production figures—which lag by months—often are seen as painting a more accurate picture of true production. And the most recent data shows that U.S. crude oil production is on the decline as of February. According to EIA data, U.S. crude oil production dipped in February to an average of 11.312 million barrels per day—a 457,000 bpd decline from November 2021. January’s average monthly production was also down, to 11.362 million bpd compared to 11.604 million bpd on average in December. In fact, the monthly data shows that production has been declining since November 2021. And data shows that U.S. production is still a far cry from where it was in 2019 prior to the pandemic. The weekly data that is more frequently followed due to the timely nature of the data releases does show a downtrend in January and February, but not by nearly as much. Until the EIA published its February monthly on Friday, the only EIA production data available were weekly figures. For each of the four weeks in January, the EIA had estimated that production in the United States averaged 11.7 million bpd, 11.7 million bpd, 11.6 million bpd, and 11.5 million bpd. In February, weekly figures showed that production stood at 11.6 million bpd in each of the weeks. NN:  For the last two years the US economy and oil demand was soft because of Covid restrictions. That is no longer the case, The base line should be 2019 before the pandemic. Production averaged close to 13 million barrels  a day. I expect demand this summer to exceed 2019 numbers  averaging 14 million bpd.  That gives us a net shortfall of 3 million barrels a day if demand increases like my early indicators are showing.

NEW YORK (Reuters) -Oil prices fell on Friday, reversing in volatile trade, pulled downward by the U.S. heating oil contract that plummeted by more than 20% at one point on the day of its expiration. The front-month U.S. heating oil contract, which is a proxy for diesel prices, soared to a record high of $5.8595 a gallon before falling as low as $4.4067 a gallon. Diesel futures have climbed as investors worry about tight supplies globally following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The heating oil contract expired on Friday, along with the global Brent benchmark and U.S. gasoline futures. Volumes in all three front-month contracts was low, creating outsized volatility in the market and leading to late-day sell-offs, analysts said. “The fireworks were all in the expiring diesel contract,” said Andrew Lipow of Lipow Oil Associates in Houston. “Today’s expiry is especially volatile and may not be reflective of actual tightness.” The more-active second-month Brent crude futures contract fell 12 cents to settle at $107.14 a barrel. The expiring front-month contract rose $1.75 to settle at $109.34 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude, which does not expire on Friday, fell 67 cents to settle at $104.69 a barrel, as traders sold energy contracts across the board. The front-month heating oil contract’s volatility was not mirrored in the more-active second-month U.S. heating oil contract, which gained $0.0088 a gallon to settle at $4.0172 a gallon. Both Brent and WTI rose for the week and posted their fifth straight monthly gain. Brent ended the month up 1.3%, while WTI ended up 4.4%. Prices have been buoyed by fears that Russian supply will continue to be disrupted by the conflict in Ukraine. Futures rose this week on the increased likelihood that Germany will join other European Union member states in an embargo on Russian oil. Russian oil production could fall by as much as 17% this year, an economy ministry document seen by Reuters showed on Wednesday, as Western sanctions over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine hurt investments and exports. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies are likely to stick to their existing deal and agree another small output increase for June when it meets on May 5, six sources from the producer group told Reuters on Thursday. Still, there are bearish demand factors looming. China has shown no signs of easing lockdown measures which have hit its economy and global supply chains. Crude’s rally could stall and prices could average just less than $100 a barrel this year, a Reuters poll found on Friday, as economic risks and China’s COVID lockdowns counter supply shortfalls due to the Ukraine war. NN: To me the next 2  charts says it all. As you can see by the blue line on the chart crude oil stockpiles are plunging. Meaning the markets is drawing down above ground inventories to meet demand.

No one uses crude it has to be turned into diesel fuel and gasoline and Jet fuel to be consumed. That category is called distillates. This next chart is really scary. As you can see distillate stocks are plunging:

As the captives are set free and vacation driving and flying season is upon us. Inventories are at critical low levels…. We are coming into a high demand time of the year…. Since we are out of winter heating season and not yet at vacation season we should see a massive inventory build. The data as displayed in the above  chart  clearly shows the critical low inventor levels. They are not just dropping but plunging. This indicates to me we can expect shortages and maybe even rationing….. You heard it here first. Thier is a energy and food crises coming bark Bark BARK!

Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in an hour-long interview (above) with Al Arabiya amid the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war. Sergey has Putin’s trust and he is the idea man. His words should be taken seriously

Putin’s propagandists simulate NUKING Europe with missiles hitting in 200 seconds and ‘no survivors’ in angry TV outburst at UK – as ex-Nato chief warns Russia could declare ‘all-out war’ in days

• Hosts and guests on one of Russia’s most watched programmes discussed the prospect of a nuclear war
• Channel One’s 60 Minutes showed a map detailing how long it would take for missiles to hit European capitals
• Aleksey Zhuravlyov, a nationalist politician, said: ‘one Sarmat missile and the British Isles will be no more’
• One host declared ‘no one will survive’ if a war took place, and Zhuravlyov said it would leave a ‘blank slate’
• The politician angrily berated the UK for its support of Ukraine, saying: ‘They’re accusing us of state terrorism’

Russian state TV has brazenly simulated how Vladimir Putin would launch a nuclear strike on three capital cities in Europe, declaring there would be ‘no survivors’, in response to comments made by the UK’s Armed Forces Minister supporting Ukrainian strikes on Russian infrastructure. Hosts on Channel One’s 60 Minutes programme announced the cities of London, Paris and Berlin could be hit within 200 seconds of nuclear missiles being launched, as tensions ramp up amid the ongoing war in Ukraine. It comes as ex-Nato chief Richard Sherriff warned the West must ‘gear itself up’ for a ‘worst case scenario’ war with Russia in Ukraine, amid reports the Russian president could use the country’s victory day parade on May 9 to declare ‘all-out war’ on its neighbour.  On Thursday’s show the chairman of the nationalist Rodina party, Aleksey Zhuravlyov, pondered what would happen if Russia launched nuclear weapons against the UK, saying: ‘one Sarmat missile and the British Isles will be no more.’ When pulled up on the comment by one of the hosts, he insisted he was ‘saying this seriously’, while another host added that the UK has nuclear weapons too and that ‘no one will survive in this war’. Producers on the show then showed viewers a map seeming to suggest missiles could be launched from Kaliningrad, the Russian enclave between Poland, Lithuania and the Baltic Sea. It suggested these could reach Berlin in 106 seconds, Paris in 200 seconds and London in 202 seconds. It comes as the UK and other western nations continue in their support for Ukraine, with allies providing equipment, military vehicles and weapons to the beleaguered country. In response to the western support of Ukraine, war-mongering Putin ordered the military to test-fire its Sarmat missiles, which are also known as Satan II. Last week Putin bragged that his country’s hypersonic missiles could ‘break through all modern defences’ and could be ready to strike the UK ‘by autumn’.

NN: When a country with 5000 nuclear war heads and the worlds fastest missle  undetectable and unstoppable, threatens nuclear war it would behoove you to take note. I have my nuclear bomb shelter…. People had root cellars and tornado bunkers. So i put all 3 of them together.

Vladimir Putin is set to declare ‘all-out war’ on Ukraine ‘within days’ to enable Russia to launch a general mobilisation of the population, according to Russian sources and Western officials. Russian troops entered Ukraine at the end of February in what Putin called a ‘special military operation’ to demilitarise and ‘denazify’ Ukraine and barred the use of the word ‘war’, thinking it would be over in a few weeks. However, army chiefs – frustrated that the invasion has now stretched into the third week – have called on the Russian president to declare war which would enable a mass mobilisation of Russian troops and an escalation in the conflict.

Britain’s Defence Secretary Ben Wallace said that the Russian president might use Russia’s victory day parade on May 9 to announce the mass mobilisation of his reserves for a final push in Ukraine. 

It comes as ex-Nato chief Richard Sherriff warned the West must ‘gear itself up’ for a ‘worst case scenario’ war with Russia in Ukraine. Vladimir Putin is set to declare ‘all-out war’ on Ukraine ‘within days’ to enable Russia to launch a general mobilisation of the population Britain’s Defence Secretary Ben Wallace said that the Russian president might use Russia’s victory day parade on May 9 to announce the mass mobilisation of his reserves for a final push in Ukraine.  A Russian military source told the Telegraph: ‘The military are outraged that the blitz on Kyiv has failed. ‘People in the army are seeking payback for failures of the past and they want to go further in Ukraine.’ Earlier this week, the Russian military was said to be furious that Putin had downsized the invasion of Ukraine and called for a new escalation of the conflict.  Speaking on Friday, Mr Wallace said Putin may declare a new war against the world’s ‘Nazis’ at the victory day parade which sees Moscow mark the end of Russia’s involvement in the Second World War. With Putin’s military having failed in their first wave of military objectives, Moscow has re-focused its efforts on seizing both the east and southern coast of Ukraine. However, as in the first months of the invasion, Russian forces are being met with heavy Ukrainian resistance from Kyiv’s determined armies. Some analysts had predicted that Putin wanted to be in a position where he could declare some form of victory on May 9. But with Russia’s victory day parade now less than two weeks away, that is looking less likely. Instead, Mr Wallace told LBC Radio that Putin could use the occasion to declare a new war on who he would call the world’s Nazis to galvanise his populace in another push against the Ukrainian defenders. ‘I would not be surprised… that he is probably going to declare on May Day that “we are now at war with the world’s Nazis and we need to mass mobilise the Russian people”,’ Mr Wallace said on Friday morning.  Mr Sherriff today said Russia was likely to double down on its approach to Ukraine, insisting to its people that it is the right approach.  He told BBC Radio 4: ‘The worst case is war with Russia. By gearing itself up for the worst case, it is most likely to deter Putin because ultimately Putin respects strength.’ Ukraine’s allies have massively stepped up support for Kyiv as fierce fighting rages in the east, with Kyiv’s generals today saying that Russia is suffering ‘colossal’ casualties in the pivotal battle for Donbas.  Oleksiy Arestovych, a Ukrainian secret service veteran-turned presidential adviser, acknowledged his military is suffering ‘serious losses’ on battlefields in the east but insisted that Russia’s casualties are ‘much, much worse’.  Russia is pouring troops into the battle in Donbass in an effort to force a bloody victory having been defeated in its initial aim to storm in Kyiv, topple the government, and install a puppet regime loyal to Moscow. After it became apparent they did not have sufficient force to take the capital, Russia’s generals yanked their units out, patched them up as best they could, and then threw them back into the fight in Donbas. They also adapted their tactics – abandoning precision missile strikes and rapid advances which saw them mauled around Kyiv in favour of slow advances behind walls of blanket artillery in similar tactics to WW1 trench warfare. The move has been met with mixed success. Ukraine has acknowledged losing control of some towns and villages, but has made gains elsewhere in counter-attacks.

Earlier this week, Putin vowed to use nuclear weapons against any country that dares to ‘interfere’ with Russia’s war in Ukraine. 

Foreign Secretary Liz Truss said that the war in Ukraine could drag on for another five to ten years. Many Ukrainians see the war as having already lasted eight, after Russia annexed Crimea in 2014 and backed separatists in the eastern Donbas region, where fighting has raged since. The UK government said on Friday that it was deploying about 8,000 troops for exercises across eastern Europe in a show of strength after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The months-long drills in countries stretching from Finland to North Macedonia also involve allies including France and the United States, defence officials said in a statement. Britain is deploying 72 Challenger 2 tanks and 120 armoured fighting vehicles along with artillery guns, helicopters and drones for the exercises, some of which are already underway. Britain has been supplying missiles to Ukraine to fight back against Russia, and says it is ready to help with tanks and planes via partners such as Poland. Foreign Secretary Liz Truss said Wednesday that ‘the whole of Ukraine’ must be liberated, including Crimea, after the peninsula was seized by Russia in 2014. NN: this war is growing like a metastasized cancer. Any provocation and things could quickly spin out of control. The war could easily spill over to Poland and even involve tactical nuclear weapons.

Now we challenge Putin: Britain sends tanks, attack helicopters, artillery and 8,000 soldiers to Eastern Europe in one of the largest deployments since Cold War

• The British Army will send 8,000 troops to east Europe to take part in exercises
• Nato and Joint Expeditionary Force alliance nations will also be deploying
• It will be one of the largest military exercises in Europe since the Cold War
• An army general says our show of ‘training and agility’ will deter aggression

Around 8,000 British Army troops and dozens of tanks will take part in exercises across eastern Europe to combat Russian aggression in one of the largest deployments since the Cold War. Tens of thousands of Nato troops will join the British forces that will be deployed to countries ranging from Finland to North Macedonia this summer under plans that have been enhanced since the invasion of Ukraine. The Joint Expeditionary Force alliance, which includes Finland and Sweden, will also be taking part.  The Ministry of Defence (MoD) said the purpose behind the exercises is to demonstrate how the British Army has modernised into a ‘lethal, agile and global force’. The action had been long planned, but that it had been enhanced in response since Russia invaded its neighbour in late February.   Only yesterday was the first UK casualty in Ukraine confirmed, Scott Sibley, a veteran of the British armed forces had served in the Commando Logistic Support Squadron in Afghanistan. Commander Field Army Lieutenant General Ralph Wooddisse emphasised the importance of the exercises, he said: ‘The UK makes a significant contribution to the defence of Europe and the deterrence of Russian aggression.’The British Army’s series of exercises is fundamental to both. ‘The scale of the deployment, coupled with the professionalism, training and agility of the British Army, will deter aggression at a scale not seen in Europe this century.’ The UK deployment is expected to build to a peak of around 8,000 personnel operating in mainland Europe between April and June. Troops from B Squadron of the Queen’s Royal Hussars have already deployed to Finland, which shares an 830 mile land border with Russia, to take part in Exercise Arrow. Exercise Hedgehog next month will involve the Royal Welsh battlegroup and the Royal Tank Regiment, with exercises planned on the Estonia/Latvia border alongside 18,000 Nato troops. Hedgehog, the biggest military exercise in Estonia, takes place every four years and will involve a range of units including light and airborne forces, helicopters, armoured forces, artillery and air defence. Exercises alongside American troops are also taking place in Poland.  Defence Secretary Ben Wallace said: ‘The security of Europe has never been more important. ‘These exercises will see our troops join forces with allies and partners across Nato and the Joint Expeditionary Force in a show of solidarity and strength in one of the largest shared deployments since the Cold War.’ NN: AS your official barking dog at the gate i am barking…….

Benchmark northwest European gasoline barge refining margins on hit their highest since August 2015 on Thursday, Refinitiv Eikon data showed, reaching over $26 a barrel after data showing a drop in U.S. gasoline stockpiles.

• TotalEnergies began the process of restarting the 231,000 barrel per day (bpd) Donges oil refinery in France on April 26, after it was taken offline in December 2020.

• A rare naphtha cargo from Brazil arrived, reversing the usual flow, possibly attracted by strong demand from the gasoline sector, which is supporting higher imports more generally, said Insights Global’s Lars van Wageningen.

• Another rare cargo arrived in the form of a gasoline shipment from Turkey, possibly a way for suppliers who normally sell Russian product to fulfil contracts with clients with product from other origins.

• U.S. gasoline stocks (USOILG=ECI) fell by 1.6 million barrels last week, Energy Information Administration data showed on Wednesday.

• U.S. East Coast gasoline inventories fell last week to 50.7 million barrels, their lowest since November 2014, the EIA said. ​

• Shell (SHEL) on Wednesday tightened its restrictions on buying Russian oil, saying it would no longer accept refined products with any Russian content, including blended fuels.

• Japan’s industry ministry on Tuesday extended an emergency subsidy programme for gasoline and other fuels to the end of September and lifted the ceiling on the subsidy to 35 yen ($0.27) per litre from 25 yen to cushion the blow from higher fuel prices.

• Global commodities trader Trafigura will stop all purchases of crude oil from Russia’s state oil company Rosneft by May 15, a spokesperson said on Tuesday.

• Rosneft offered oil products from its refineries for loading during May-June in a tender requiring pre-payment in roubles, three market sources told Reuters on Tuesday. NNN: Wigglewaggle, spin control in over drive and endless blow and go does not heat your house, power your car or fuel jets. It takes gas and oil and refineries. We are in a no shit flow blown energy crises. Thats all you need to know to trade the markets. Now add the growing  shooting war in the Ukraine and commodity and metal shortages and you got some of the greatest trades ever… See how they RUN prices higher and higher!