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The West Is Suffering The Consequences Of Poor Energy Decisions

  • The EU has doubled down on becoming the world’s first net-zero region.
  • The West hasn’t done enough to secure crucial supply chains to provide raw materials for their energy transition plans.
  • Import dependency has made Western economies more vulnerable.

There has been an unspoken assumption that the West knows what it’s doing because it has been doing it longer than the East. Almost all developed economies are in Western Europe and North America. Yet recently, the tables have turned in one vital respect: energy policy. During the last few years, the EU has doubled down on its ambition to become the world’s first net-zero region. It has built up massive amounts of renewable energy, has slated huge investments in green hydrogen, and has been adopting policy after policy to discourage the consumption of fossil fuels In the U.S., the big push into renewables started two years ago as President Joe Biden took office. The transition from a fossil fuel-based economy to one based on and fueled by renewable energy was a central tenet in his campaign, and he got to work from day one, banning the Keystone XL pipeline from Canada and soon after temporarily banning oil and gas drilling on federal lands. Meanwhile, far, far, away in the East, OPEC+ was formed to include two of the world’s largest oil producers—Russia and Saudi Arabia—as well as the Central Asian oil producers from the former Soviet Union, including Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan. The expanded cartel hasn’t always seen eye to eye, and just before the pandemic really blew up, the Russians and the Saudis engaged in a brief price war. Yet since then, OPEC+ has worked like a well-oiled machine. The EU, the UK, and the United States have raced to install more wind turbines, more solar panels, and more storage, and carmakers, almost all based in either Europe or the U.S., have equally raced to commit tens of billions of dollars to the electrification of transport. Those races are both based on the Paris Agreement and the goal of reducing the rise in global average temperatures by 1.5 or 2 degrees Celsius from pre-industrial levels.  While the West has been busy with that, OPEC+, headed by Russia and Saudi Arabia, has been pumping as much oil as it has seen fit at any given moment. In addition to that, Russia has kept its metals and uranium industry going and has continued to forge closer ties with the Far East, with a focus on China. Saudi Arabia, meanwhile, has staked a claim in the mining world and has allocated tens of billions on renewable energy and smart tech investment. What this means, basically, is while the West has enthusiastically focused on the final section of the energy supply chain—the wind turbines, the panels, and the EVs—the East, in the face of Russia and Saudi Arabia, has focused on the start and the middle of the process, on the raw materials without which no energy transition would be possible. While doing that, they have also continued what they have done for decades: supply the world, including transition-happy economies, with fossil fuels. Right now, the West is discovering how important the raw materials part is for the energy industry as a whole. U.S. shale drillers cannot boost production as fast as the Biden administration would like because it has been plagued by shortages. The EU is struggling under a growing electricity cost burden because renewables have under-delivered while the EU has been trying to reduce its consumption of fossil fuels. Now, this consumption is on the rise, but it’s also a lot more expensive than it was because of the tight supply. Ironically, emissions are also on the rise.  The Biden administration wants to bring in more Canadian oil into the U.S., but the Keystone XL pipeline that could’ve done that has been killed by that very same administration. The administration also wants more local critical mineral production but appears to not want the mines that would be necessary to do that. What it doesn’t want, apparently, is Russian oil and fuels amid the Ukraine war, but it will only suspend these imports beginning on April 22, so it can stock up before that. In Europe, politicians have been equally active in punishing Russia for Ukraine with, so far, five rounds of sanctions that many have joked have hurt the EU more than they have hurt Russia. There is some truth in these jokes: EU energy prices have skyrocketed and stayed in the sky, industries are warning they might have to close if the EU sanctions Russian gas or if Russia decides to turn the tap off in retaliation, and people are beginning to protest. Even so, Brussels officials are talking about oil and gas sanctions, and they just this week voted for a ban on Russian coal imports… to take effect in August. That last part is a sliver of common sense. Russia supplies 45 percent of Europe’s thermal coal, used for electricity and heat generation. The EU is now scrambling to find a replacement, while the world’s biggest coal exporter Indonesia is hiking its prices massively and Australia, another coal giant, is warning it will not have enough for Europe. The West is beginning its painful awakening to one very simple fact. This fact is that whoever controls the raw materials controls everything. And if those who control the raw materials play their cards right, they are likely to remain in control while the consumers of these raw materials deepen their dependence on these external suppliers. NN: the lefty liberals with their greenieewinnie wet drams have really fucked up this time.. Tier is NO replacement for Russian gas, oil, metals coal, fertilizer and Slavic women likesTrumps wife

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OPEC: Hard to replace Russian oil volumes….. OPEC+ Alliance Put To The Test Amid Ukraine War

LONDON (Reuters) – OPEC told the European Union on Monday that current and future sanctions on Russia could create one of the worst ever oil supply shocks and it would be impossible to replace those volumes. OPEC Secretary General Mohammad Barkindo made the remarks in a meeting on Monday with EU officials, according to a copy of his speech seen by Reuters. NN:

The Gulf countries may not be reliable partners against Russia…

Earlier this month, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad was welcomed in Dubai, in the United Arab Emirates. To the dismay of the United States, the red carpet was rolled out for him, on the anniversary of the uprising against Assad, amid war mongering by his Russian ally in Ukraine. Just before, British PM Boris Johnson has been on a visit himself to both the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, not only to promote Global Britain, but also in a bid to convince both Gulf states to increase oil production. Johnson was acting as an emissary from the West, after the Gulf countries’ leaders declined to take a call from U.S. President Joe Biden to build international support for Ukraine and contain a surge in oil prices, signaling their unhappiness with the perceived Western lack of support for their security. These grievances include concerns about Biden’s move to take Yemenite Houthi rebels off of America’s official list of global terrorist groups. Drone and missile attacks on U.A.E. capital Abu Dhabi, launched earlier this year by the Iran-backed rebel group, and the prospect of a restoration of the Iran nuclear deal has added to the U.A.E. and Saudi Arabia’s complaints. It’s not just refusing to take Joe Biden’s calls, however. More broadly, the Gulf states are hedging their bets on the Ukraine issue. The Emirates abstained during a United Nations vote condemning Russia’s invasion, and the Emirati leader, popularly known as “MBZ”, referred to “Russia’s right to ensure its national security” in a call with Russian President Putin. There has even been speculation that the U.A.E. could help Russia avoid Western sanctions, with Emirati officials reportedly assuring Russians that they will not enforce sanctions unless mandated by the UN — something which Moscow would certainly veto. On top of that, there is a deal between Russia and the Saudi-led oil cartel, OPEC, which the Saudis and Emiratis are reluctant to abandon, as it was hard-fought in 2020 and involved great concessions from Russia. The OPEC question will become increasingly important because the situation on the energy front is dire. The International Energy Agency has warned a global oil supply shock may be coming due to large-scale disruptions to Russian oil supplies, which would drive oil prices to even higher levels than today. While Saudi Arabia isn’t pumping oil at full capacity and has not yet pledged to do so, the U.A.E has promised to push OPEC to pump more oil, but this development has yet to materialize and wasn’t agreed upon with other OPEC members in advance. Despite the talk, actions on the ground further indicate the Emirates are moving away from the West, a shift which is in line with broader trends in the Gulf region. The euro is still plagued by its shaky political underpinnings, while it is still an open question whether bitcoin will be able to resist state action banning it, if it will ever be widely adopted in the first place. King dollar also retains its primacy due to the fact that oil sales are conducted in USD — at least for now. This week, it emerged that Saudi Arabia is considering accepting yuan instead of dollars for Chinese oil sales. UK faces “tough” talks with Gulf countries The continued primacy of the U.S. dollar also makes the argument less convincing that Western sanctions against Russia will push into to a separate trading bloc led by China, creating a kind of dichotomy within the global economy. That is unlikely to happen fast. Not only is China far from enjoying the degree of trust required to offer the world’s reserve currency, it’s impossible for Russia to simply replace its trade with the West with Chinese trade, as the volume of Russia’s current trade with the West is simply too high. The West, however, is determined to reduce that trade. Ahead of his trip to the Gulf, Boris Johnson vowed the world must “starve Putin’s addiction to oil and gas”, adding that “Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are key international partners in that effort.” Then, only one day after Johnson’s visit, UAE Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed pledged, during a visit to Moscow, to cooperate with Russia on bolstering global energy security. Johnson’s government seems to be wary to embrace fracking, which before Putin’s war helped the United States enjoy gas prices that are only one-sixth of the level in Europe. Unless Johnson revisits that stance, the UK has no choice but to become more energy dependent on the rest of the world, particularly petrol-rich states like the Gulf countries. So far, however, it’s unclear whether they’re ready to play ball. With UK talks with Gulf countries over increased oil production labeled “tough” and the Emirates gearing up to water down the effect of Western sanctions on Russia, something’s got to give. NN: Blow and go does not provide more energy. World leaders still don’t get it……The world is hopelessly and totally dependent on Russia oil and natural gas. And their is no alternative and And AND supplies are running short. their will be hell to pay after the summer driving season turns into winter…

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Oil down 4% as as supply fears persist amid China COVID-related lockdowns

Prices of crude oil futures went down by 4% on Monday amid supply worries prompted by the release of oil from strategic reserves of both the United States and other International Energy Agency members. And China lockdowns affecting the demand side, the investors were seemingly worried by the COVID-19 containment measures in China, and the lockdowns’ impact on Beijing’s oil imports. A second straight weekly decline after world consumers announced plans to release a record volume of crude and oil products from strategic stocks and as China lockdowns continued. The market has been watching developments in China, where authorities have kept Shanghai, a city of 26 million people, locked down under its zero tolerance for COVID-19. China is the world’s biggest oil importer. Member nations of the International Energy Agency (IEA) will release 60 million barrels over the next six months, with the United States matching that amount as part of its 180 million barrel release announced in March. The moves are aimed at offsetting a shortfall in Russian crude after Moscow was hit with heavy sanctions following its invasion of Ukraine. NN: this is a opportunity to but oil under $100 a barrel. One way or another China lock downs will end and the 160 million barrel strategic oil release over 6 months into a  36,500 million barre a year consumption global market is a  sick joke .Even my calculator laughed.

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Ukraine Update: U.S. Officials Wary of Putin’s New Commander

Russian President Vladimir Putin has appointed a new general to direct the war in Ukraine as his military shifts plans after a failure to take Kyiv, according to a US official and a European official.  The officials told CNN Army Gen. Alexander Dvornikov, commander of Russia’s Southern Military District, has been named theater commander of Russia’s military campaign in Ukraine   “It speaks to a Russian acknowledgement that it is going extremely badly and they need to do something differently,” the European official said. A new theater commander with extensive combat experience could bring a level of coordination to an assault now expected to focus on the Donbas region, instead of multiple fronts.   Dvornikov, 60, was the first commander of Russia’s military operations in Syria, after Putin sent troops there in September 2015 to back the government of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. During Dvornikov’s command in Syria from September 2015 to June 2016, Russian aircraft backed the Assad regime and its allies as they laid siege to rebel-held eastern Aleppo, bombarding densely populated neighborhoods and causing major civilian casualties. The city fell to Syrian government forces in December 2016.  Russian forces have used a similarly heavy-handed approach in parts of Ukraine, striking residential buildings in major cities and demolishing much of the Ukrainian port city of Mariupol.   “We will see how effective that proves to be,” the European official said. “The Russian doctrine, the Russian tactics remain pretty much as they’ve been since Afghanistan.” Military analysts and US officials familiar with intelligence assessments have speculated Russia’s generals have a goal of presenting Putin with some tangible battlefield progress ahead of Victory Day on May 9, when Russia observes the defeat of Nazi Germany and traditionally marks the occasion with a parade in Moscow’s Red Square.    The European official described it as a “self-imposed deadline,” that could lead the Russians to make additional mistakes. But it could also potentially lead Russian forces to commit more atrocities, as allegedly happened in the Kyiv suburb of Bucha while under Russian occupation. “The stench of these war crimes is going to hang over these Russian armed forces for many years,” the official said. Former UK ambassador to Russia Sir Roderic Lyne told Sky News on Saturday Moscow has appointed a new general with a “pretty savage track record in Syria to try to at least gain some territory in Donetsk that Putin could present as a victory.”  Assigning a new overall commander for Russia’s war in Ukraine may be an attempt to create a more cohesive strategy. CNN previously reported that Russia had no theater-wide commander for Ukraine operations, meaning units from different Russian military districts have been operating without coordination and sometimes at cross purposes, according to two US defense officials.  The US has previously assessed Putin would likely name a general whose forces have been operating in Ukraine’s south because that is where the Russians have taken and held more territory, as opposed to the Russian bid to encircle Kyiv and cities in northern Ukraine, an effort that recently ended with a withdrawal.  Ukraine’s General Staff said Friday Russian forces had completed their withdrawal from Ukraine’s northern Sumy region, while continuing a buildup of forces in the country’s east.   Russia’s departure from northern Ukraine shows evidence of non-combatants being disproportionately targeted, according to a Saturday UK military intelligence update. The evidence includes mass graves, the fatal use of hostages as human shields and mining of civilian infrastructure, the update said. The update added Russian forces “continue to attack infrastructures with high risk of collateral harm to civilians, including a nitrate acid tank at Rubizhne, Ukraine.” NN: This new general was the architect of the Syrian genocide. And has has been appointed to do the same. Cluster bombs and chemical weapons galore… And don’t forget his favorite… barrel bombs dropped on civilian targets. The more children flamed the better.

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Tight Oil Markets Are Sending Fuel Margins Through The Roof

Interestingly, medium-term prices have hardly budged as near-term oil prices have fallen by over 20%, indicating a still-bullish longer-term outlook. That said, whereas it’s crude markets that have been hogging the limelight, the most dramatic action in global oil markets has been happening in a more hidden corner of the market: distillate fuels. The price of diesel and jet fuel in Europe hit a record in early March amid unusually tight supplies. Both commodities have since pared some of their gains, but refiners are still making a killing. Indeed, in another sign of impending distillate fuel shortages, jet fuel traded at ~$320/b in New York on Monday ($7.61/g), a massive ~$200+ premium to crude feedstock prices. The jet fuel premium is currently ~10x larger than any premium seen in the past 30yrs.There’s a good chance that high fuel prices will ultimately lead to demand destruction. However, Goldman Sachs says distillate fuel demand is likely to remain strong and margins to remain high due to these factors:

  • Diesel and jet fuel stocks are at historic lows, and seasonally-adjusted inventory draws are large and accelerating.
  • Jet fuel consumption is poised to accelerate into summer with a return to international travel.
  • High natural gas prices will lead to “gas-to-oil” switching in Europe and Asia.
  • The Russia / Ukraine war will reduce distillate supply, as Russia exports ~900kb/d of diesel fuel and ~900kb/d of residual feedstocks, which are largely upgraded into diesel by European and Chinese refiners.
  • Refinery operating costs are increasing, particularly in Europe.

In fact, Goldman sees current record margins sustaining through at least year end. Another reason to be bullish about fuel margins: falling Russian exports. Russia is a key source of distillate fuel for Europe and the world. EIA cited diesel “scarcity” in the seaborne market. Jet fuel margins in New York harbor rose to $200/b earlier in the week, a ten-fold increase from historic averages. Attempts to measure the impact of self sanctioning on Russian exports have seen mixed results, with some studies suggesting that exports have largely continued to flow unchanged while others say they could have declined by as much as 3.0mb/d. Thus far, the only measurable impact on exports has come from a terminal outage—a terminal that primarily carries Kazakhstani crude to market. So far, Russia’s pivotal energy sector has been largely spared from sanctions. But damning evidence of serious war crimes coming from Ukraine suggests that Russia could very well face more severe sanctions, including a ban on its oil by European nations. Commodity analysts at Standard Chartered estimate that a move towards explicit EU sanctions on Russian oil imports would keep Russian output below 8.5mb/d for several years, good for a 3mb/d decline compared to pre-invasion levels,  and introduce further downside to already low expectations for Russian oil output. According to StanChart, the EU’s most likely immediate measure–i.e., imposing sanctions on coal–will do little to placate member states and public opinion for a significant ratcheting up of the pressure on Russia. Further, EU sanctions on Russian oil and gas would send a strong signal that Russian oil is unlikely to regain its former market in Europe for an extended period, if ever. EU sanctions will also likely increase the pressure on key countries, and particularly India, not to increase their imports from Russia above pre-invasion levels; up to now, part of the pushback from other users of Russian oil has been that they could not be expected to refrain from extra purchases if EU governments were not explicitly limiting their own use. In other words, fuel margins might remain elevated for many months, if not years. NN: The take away here is the fact that the worlds largest oil producer will be exporting a lot less of everything especially gas and crude oil….

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Bill Dudley Says Fed Might Need to Force Stocks to Fall

Former Federal Reserve Bank of New York President Bill Dudley says the Fed “hasn’t really accomplished much yet” with its efforts to control inflation, and will need to tighten financial conditions to push bond yields higher and stock prices lower. “If financial conditions don’t cooperate with the Fed, the Fed’s going to have to do more until financial markets do cooperate,” Dudley, a Bloomberg Opinion columnist. said on Bloomberg Television. NN: The Fed has only one tool to bring down the embedded inflation fire storm it has lit off.  And that is to crash the stock market… And it will!

 

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Dnipro airport ‘destroyed’ by Russian shelling – Ukraine

The airport in the central Ukrainian city of Dnipro has been completely destroyed in fresh Russian shelling, a local official said Sunday. “There has been another attack on Dnipro airport. There is nothing left of it. The airport itself and the infrastructure around it has been destroyed. Rockets keep flying and flying,” the head of the city’s military administration, Valentin Reznichenko, said on Telegram. He added that authorities were seeking to clarify information about victims. Reznichenko said attacks on the city, which lies on the banks of Dnieper River, intensified on Sunday. The industrial city of one million people has been targeted by Russian forces since the Russian invasion but has so far been spared major destruction. The announcement came as Ukraine, which rebuffed a Russian offensive on Kyiv, anticipates a renewed Kremlin attack on the east and south of the country. NN: Why the airport… an this one in Dnipro. Well that because it was a major supplier of imported arms that the Ukraine urgently needs……..

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Mask, no mask: Biden’s pandemic practices vary as covid risks grow

Most of the time, President Biden doesn’t wear a mask, but occasionally he’s spotted with one. Sometimes his events are in crowded indoor rooms, other times outdoors. And through it all over the past two weeks, people close to Biden — if not in “close contact” as defined by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention — are contracting covid as part of a wave washing over parts of official Washington. The White House approach appears somewhat haphazard, at times taking care to go beyond CDC guidelines and at others walking up to the edge of what’s recommended. And at least once in the last two weeks, he publicly disregarded his public health agency’s advice while visiting Poland. The president has been spared covid — so far. He is fully vaccinated and has been boosted twice, but he’s nearly 80 years old, putting him at higher risk for a severe case of the disease. Should Biden contract covid, there would likely be an immediate economic and political shock. And there could be a political price to pay for the president who staked his campaign on keeping America safe from the pandemic. “If the president contracts the virus, it’s going to be a big deal,” said Jonathan Reiner, a professor of medicine and surgery at George Washington University. “And there is this small but real risk of needing to be hospitalized or worse.” White House aides acknowledge that Biden could become infected. “I do think it is important to note it is possible he will test positive for covid at some point,” Navigating this new phase of the pandemic is tricky. Biden wants to show Americans they can get back to a normal life which inevitably involves taking more risks — which in turn potentially puts the president in the path of the pathogen.

The CDC has also stopped emphasizing its map of transmission levels, which labels Washington as “high transmission” for the coronavirus. Instead, the public health agency suggests relying on data that includes hospitalizations, which are low in D.C. But that shift masks the covid risk, health experts say, potentially making people feel overconfident about attending crowded gatherings.

Over the past 14 days, Biden has had at least 18 events where he has interacted with members of the public. including Biden walking around in a crowded mess hall in Rzeszów, Poland, to buck up U.S. troops. That put him unmasked and indoors in a country that the CDC warns Americans to avoid and recommends those traveling to wear masks at all times indoors. Biden also headlined a packed celebration in the East Room where he pulled close to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and invited her back Wednesday for a bill-signing ceremony. Pelosi announced Thursday that she tested positive for the coronavirus. Eleven of Biden’s recent events have been indoors — typically, but not always, the smaller ones. Seven have been outside. One — a packed celebration of the Affordable Care Act featuring former president Barack Obama — was initially set to be outside but moved indoors amid poor weather in Washington. Obama had covid in mid-March. So far, all of the publicly announced cases among lawmakers and top government officials in Washington have reportedly been mild. Democratic leaders have wholeheartedly embraced vaccines, boosters and even second boosters, providing them protections even as many of them have dropped masking and social distancing. The Biden administration has argued that even though the virus continues to circulate, most people who avail themselves of vaccines, boosters and newly available antiviral medications are protected from serious disease. When the last month is taken into account, Biden has come in contact with at least four people who tested positive either shortly after, or right before, interacting with him. “There were clear ways to make this safer, which should have been done,” said Abraar Karan, an infectious-disease physician at Stanford University. “One thing people need to realize is that the more potentially infectious hosts that are gathered at a single indoor event, the higher the chance of an outbreak as it only takes one person.” “I think it’s just a matter of time before the president and/or the vice president contract the virus,” Reiner said, adding that the White House is almost anticipating it. “But better for an 80-year-old man not to acquire this virus.”Biden came into contact with Pelosi at least twice shortly before she announced her covid diagnosis Thursday. The pair embraced briefly at the Obama fete on Tuesday. (Pelosi didn’t attend the Gridiron dinner.) The second contact came Wednesday afternoon, when Pelosi was invited back to the White House to watch as Biden signed into law the Postal Service Reform Act of 2022. She stood over him, and the two spoke briefly. Biden momentarily laid his hand on her wrist as he said something to her. A series of people who Biden interacted with came down with covid, including White House press secretary Jen Psaki, principal deputy press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre and Irish Prime Minister Micheál Martin. The new CDC guidance hides the true risks to individuals.But the shift has alarmed some advocates. For instance, while Walensky on Friday touted a map that the “community level” of covid is low in D.C., the agency also says that the city is still facing “high transmission” of the virus. NN: Its political. Biden is in big trouble at the polls. SO they have no choice politically but to open her up…….. Another wave is comming

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US Treasury yields keep rising on Fed comments

Most Treasurys were under pressure early Friday, pushing up the yield on the 10-year note for a sixth straight day, as investors assess the Federal Reserve’s likely policy path. Investors this week were digesting the Federal Reserve’s plans to begin unwinding its balance sheet, with minutes of the March policy meeting on Wednesday offering details. It showed policy makers want to reduce the balance sheet by up to $95 billion a month after a three-month phase-in. The process could potentially begin in May, but policymakers have yet to make a final decision, the minutes said. Worries grow that 8% inflation, more Fed comments on balance-sheet runoff could ‘scare the bond market witless again’ Yields at the long end of the yield curve have risen over the course of the week, while investors have snapped up shorter-dated maturities, pulling down the yield of the 2-year Treasury note. That’s undone a brief inversion of the yield curve that saw the 2-year yield trade above the 10-year. Persistent inversions of that portion of the curve are seen as a significant recession warning signal. Investors continue to monitor developments in the Russia-Ukraine war. A Russian missile attack on a train station in eastern Ukraine killed more than 30 people and injured more than 100, Ukrainian officials said. NN: The yield cure has inverted. We got out of our Zeroes at 1.80%. Now they are 2.75%.  Normally we would start averaging in at this point. We are going to start operations over 3%. The Fed is going to raise rates Bases Fed Funds to 5% to 6%.

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Nigeria Says OPEC Is Out of Spare Capacity

OPEC does not have the additional spare capacity to lift crude oil production much more than it is doing today, Nigeria’s Petroleum Minister Timipre Sylva told Anadolu Agency on Friday. “It is not something that you can open a tap for at this point. You must have the additional capacity, the idle capacity to bring on, but it takes a lot of work and a lot of investment for it to have additional production,” the Nigerian minister told the Turkish news agency in an interview. Many OPEC producers, including Nigeria, are currently pumping at the peak of their capacities, Sylva noted. “If there is anything we can do to produce more, OPEC will be the first to produce more. But unfortunately, this capacity doesn’t exist in most OPEC countries,” he told Anadolu Agency. OPEC is not too happy with very high oil prices because it wants prices at levels that do not hurt the consumers of its crude, but the organization cannot do much more to pump more, the Nigerian minister said.

There is “absolutely” a supply problem in the oil sector right now, Jeff Currie, global head of commodities at Goldman Sachs, told Bloomberg earlier this week.

There are broad-based supply constraints in oil producers, particularly non-core OPEC, Currie said. Every producer except for Saudi Arabia and the UAE is producing less today than they were in 2020, he added. Throw in the Russian shock, and the supply constraints are the most severe in decades, since the 1970s, according to Currie. In February, the OPEC+ group continued to severely underperform in its oil production levels compared to the target in the pact, with February output at more than 1 million barrels per day (bpd) below the collective quota and compliance rate jumping to 136 percent, Reuters reported last month. In March, OPEC’s second-largest producer, Iraq, produced just 4.15 million bpd of crude oil, well below its quota under the OPEC+ agreement, according to data from Iraqi state oil marketing firm SOMO seen by Reuters. Oil production in OPEC’s key partner in the OPEC+ deal, Russia, has also shown signs of a decline in recent weeks. NN: For the record the oil market is under supplied by at least 5 million BPD. And its getting worse. Inventories are at historic lows and getting lower and lower. Releasing Stratigic oil supplies  are like pissing on a wheat feild in a drought to water it