Gas gap in Europe drives U.S. LNG exports to record high

https://youtu.be/XdQz-jmU44g

HOUSTON/LONDON (Reuters) – Sky-high European demand drove U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports to a record in December, Refinitiv data showed, with winter supply worries set to sustain orders for the fuel.About half of the record U.S. LNG volumes shipped last month went to Europe, up from 37% earlier in 2021, data from Refinitiv and the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed. The gains reflected soaring demand for the home heating and industrial fuel that pushed prices in Europe and Asia to record highs. The United States has ample and cheap supplies as its shale oil and gas boom in the last two decades led to domestic production that has exceeded U.S. demand by about 10%. Vessel tracking data showed about 7.15 million tonnes of LNG were shipped last month on 106 vessels, up 16% compared to 6.14 million tonnes on 89 vessels the same month a year ago. That topped the previous record of 6.51 million tonnes set in May. Dutch gas prices, the European benchmark, have cooled since late December removing their premium to Asia. On Wednesday, the Japan Korea Marker (JKM) price for Asia spot gas was $34.19 per million British thermal units, a premium of about $4 to Europe. Two LNG cargoes originally destined for Europe have been re-routed this month, people familiar with the matter said, with one heading to Asia. That is a reversal to late last year when at least 10 cargoes heading for Asia were re-routed to Europe attracted by the price differential. “LNG diversions from Asia are a useful stop-gap measure but are not a sustainable substitute for stable pipeline supplies,” Wei Xiong, senior analyst at consultancy Rystad Energy, said. LNG demand in Asia may jump in January, halting further diversions to Europe, she added. “Prices are volatile right now,” said Reid I’Anson, senior commodity analyst at data provider Kpler.While LNG prices being higher in Asia than in Europe lowers the likelihood of a new record for U.S. exports to Europe, flows could shift again if temperatures tumble there, I’Anson said. Ports in Britain, the Netherlands and Belgium have around 30 LNG tankers scheduled for delivery this month, with at least 13 arriving from the United States. While the United States has plentiful natural gas, its processing and chilling capacity is limited. Gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants in December hit a record 12.2 billion cubic feet per day, about the maximum processing capacity. There were no LNG processing plants approved in the United States last year, while nearly a dozen plants proposed in past years are still awaiting financial commitments. Spending on new LNG projects fell in recent years as trade tensions between the United States and China rose and more recently as gas prices fell during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Oil extends rally on Kazakhstan unrest and Libyan outages

  • Russia moves paratroopers into Kazakhstan to quell uprising
  • Libyan oil output down to 729,000 bpd, NOC says
  • Market shrugs off U.S. fuel stock surge, OPEC+ output hike

NEW YORK, Jan 6 (Reuters) – Oil prices rose about 2% on Thursday, extending their new year’s rally, on escalating unrest in OPEC+ oil producer Kazakhstan and supply outages in Libya.

Frustrated German towns urge leaders to plan for fourth COVID dose

BERLIN, Jan 6 (Reuters) – German towns have appealed to authorities for less “flying by the seat of your pants” and more “forward-thinking planning,” as the country looks likely to miss its vaccination target for January. Local leaders have described the vaccine rollout as chaotic, complaining of a lack of communication about when and how much vaccine they would receive, which made it difficult to plan. Germany has a low rate of vaccination compared with some other western European countries: 71.5% of the population is fully vaccinated and 40.9% have received a booster shot. Gerd Landsberg, chief executive of the German Association of Towns and Municipalities, said he wanted to see plans for a fourth dose of vaccine that would include additional vaccination centres and a prioritisation scheme when federal and state leaders meet on Friday. “Overall, one principle must apply: Less flying by the seat of your pants and more forward-thinking planning,” he told the RedaktionsNetzwerk Deutschland media group in a print interview. The government has said that it aims for 80% of the population to have had at least one shot by the end of January, a target it will miss if the rate of first-time vaccinations continues at the current pace. So far, the number stands at 74.4%. German leaders are set to discuss how to respond to the highly contagious Omicron variant, including shortening COVID-19 self-isolation periods over fears that critical services could grind to a halt as it takes hold. The Robert Koch Institute (RKI) for infectious disease reported 64,340 new coronavirus infections on Thursday, bringing the total number to more than 7.36 million.

The death toll grew by 443, to reach 113,368.

According to the preliminary findings of an Israeli study, a fourth dose of COVID-19 vaccine boosts antibodies five-fold a week after it’s administered.  French Prime Minister Jean Castex said on Thursday that France was ready to begin deploying a fourth shot as soon as health authorities gave the green light.  NN: If the last time you were vaccinated is over  months ago your immunity to the new variant is waning. Most protocols call for a booster shot 4 to 6 months after your last vaccination. I am at 5 months and will get my 4th shot next week. Talk to your medical professional….

N. Korea claims recently-fired missile is ‘hypersonic’

The North Korean state news agency on Thursday said a missile fired into the sea off the east of the Korean Peninsula was a hypersonic weapon. It’s Pyongyang’s second reported test of a hypersonic gliding missile to date — after one it claimed in September — and is the first missile launch from North Korea since October.

North Korea’s claim of a successful hypersonic test Wednesday has yet to be independently confirmed.

On Thursday, Japan’s defense minister, Nobuo Kishi, told Japanese media that the missile was not hypersonic, but a “new type of ballistic missile” not launched by the North before. State news agency KCNA said the missile carried a “hypersonic gliding warhead” that “precisely hit a target 700 kilometers away.” The Wednesday test “reconfirmed the flight control and stability of the missile in the active-flight stage and assessed the performance of the new lateral movement technique applied to the detached hypersonic gliding warhead”, the agency said.

“The successive successes in the test launches in the hypersonic missile sector have strategic significance in that they hasten a task for modernizing strategic armed force of the state,” the KCNA report said.

Resolutions by the United Nations Security Council ban all ballistic missile and nuclear tests by North Korea, and sanctions have been imposed over the programs. Wednesday’s missile launch into the Sea of Japan was detected by several militaries in the region and drew criticism from the United States, South Korea, and Japan. Hypersonic missiles can achieve more than five times the speed of sound (about 6,200 kilometers per hour, or 3,850 miles per hour) and are more agile than standard weaponry. Unlike ballistic missiles that enter space before returning to their targets on steep trajectories, hypersonic weapons travel at lower altitudes and can be maneuvered to make them more difficult to intercept.

The development of more maneuverable missiles and warheads is likely aimed at thwarting missile defense systems used by South Korea and the United States. The US is currently spending billions of dollars on upgrading its missile defense capabilities.

Washington condemned the launch and called on Pyongyang to sit down for talks. “This launch is in violation of multiple UN Security Council resolutions and poses a threat to the DPRK’s neighbors and the international community,” a State Department spokesperson said, using the official name of North Korea. Dialogue between the US and North Korea has stalled after talks in 2019 between leader Kim Jong Un and then President Donald Trump collapsed. The administration of Trump’s successor Joe Biden has repeatedly declared its willingness to meet North Korean representatives, saying it would seek denuclearization. However, Pyongyang has so far refused to accept, accusing Washington of pursuing “hostile” policies. South Korean President Moon Jae-in said in his New Year’s address that he would continue to seek ways to promote peace on the Korean Peninsula until his single five-year term ends in May. He has recently urged a symbolic declaration to end the 1950-53 Korean War, to reduce animosity. However, despite sanctions and major economic problems in North Korea caused by the COVID pandemic and mismanagement, Kim has since threatened to enlarge his nuclear arsenal. NN: as you are seeing the US and UN sanctions mean nothing. Let me explain what they are not telling you. Kim Yon Num Chucks is building the ultimate weapon. A unstoppable Nuclear tipped Hyper-sonic  missile that can strike any point on the planet within a hour after launch.  And he is developing the technology to launch them form land sea and air. Picture what will happen when he gets a hundred of them, Oh i forgot tp mention China and Russia are building their hyper sonic arsenals as we speak. And the US is still researching them……..

 

Conditions for rate hike may be met soon – FOMC minutes

The United States Federal Reserve’s condition on reaching maximum employment before raising interest rates “could be met relatively soon” if the labor market continues to improve “at the recent pace,” most policymakers present at the December 2021 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and the Board of Governors had stated, according to the meeting minutes made public on Wednesday. Central bankers “generally noted that… it may become warranted to increase the federal funds rate sooner or at a faster pace than participants had earlier anticipated.” Some Fed officials suggested adopting “a less accommodative future stance” on monetary policy using “a measured approach” to keep flexibility and that the FOMC “should convey a strong commitment to address elevated inflation pressures.” Policymakers’ projections for the first interest rate hike have moved from the first quarter of 2023 to June 2022, the document said. “At some point” after that first interest rate increase, a reduction in the size of the Fed’s balance sheet “would likely be appropriate,” according to “almost all participants” of the meeting.

France struck with record 335,000 COVID-19 cases…… Virus cases in Italy rise by record 189,109 in one day…… Netherlands sees record 24,490 COVID-19 cases

French Health Minister Olivier Veran confirmed on Wednesday the country registered a new record of about 335,000 new COVID-19 cases over the last 24 hours. The update comes as the government is about to hold a meeting on the health situation in France and discuss potential new restrictions to curb the worst outbreak to date. However, President Emmanuel Macron insisted yesterday there won’t be any new curbs after today’s meeting.

Virus cases in Italy rise by record 189,109 in one day

Italian health officials reported on Wednesday that record-high 189,109 cases have been detected in the previous 24 hours, taking the total number of coronavirus infections to 6,756,035. Over the same time span, the COVID-19 death toll in the country rose by 231 to 138,276. A total of 5,196,642 patients have been cured of the disease since the beginning of the pandemic, data also showed.

Netherlands sees record 24,490 COVID-19 cases

The Netherlands registered record 24,490 new COVID-19 cases and 39 coronavirus-related deaths over the previous day, according to the official data updated on Wednesday. Despite the number of daily recorded infections declining through most of December, the spreading curve turned up again following the Christmas and New Year holidays. However, children will return to classrooms in primary and secondary schools from next week despite record figures, the government confirmed earlier this week.

Chicago cancels school as record-setting Omicron wave spurs more disruptions

CHICAGO, Jan 5 (Reuters) – Chicago officials canceled classes in the nation’s third-largest school district on Wednesday amid a dispute with the teachers’ union, the latest disruption to U.S. education and life as the Omicron variant spurs a record-setting COVID-19 surge. The move came after the teachers’ union voted late on Tuesday to return to remote learning and pushed for more rigorous safety protocols, citing concerns about the rapid spread of the highly infectious Omicron variant that has upended air travel, Broadway shows and back-to-office plans in recent weeks. The rolling seven-day average number of new COVID-19 cases in the United States hit 540,000, a new high for an eighth consecutive day on Tuesday. The country shattered global records for a single day with nearly 1 million new infections on Monday, according to a Reuters tally.

WHO Official Downplays Coronavirus Variant Found in France…. like they did all the other killer varients

The World Health Organization said a coronavirus variant found in France hasn’t become much of a threat since it was first identified in November. The variant “has been on our radar,” Abdi Mahamud, a WHO incident manager on Covid, said at a press briefing in Geneva on Tuesday. “That virus had a lot of chances to pick up.” The variant was identified in 12 people in the southern Alps around the same time that omicron was discovered in South Africa last year. The latter mutation has since traveled the globe and kindled record levels of contagion, unlike the French one that researchers at the IHU Mediterranee Infection — helmed by scientist Didier Raoult –nicknamed IHU.  The first patient identified with the variant was vaccinated and had just returned from Cameroon, IHU researchers wrote in a paper published on the medRxiv server in late December where they first drew attention to the atypical mutations.

It’s “too early to speculate on virological, epidemiological or clinical features of this IHU variant based on these 12 cases,” they wrote in the article, which hasn’t been peer reviewed.

The WHO monitors multiple variants, and when it finds one may pose a significant risk, it declares it a “variant of concern.” This one is only under investigation. NN: The WHO also downplayed the Delta and Omicron and you saw how that turned out.  Come to think of it they also told us covid19 was nothing to worry about

Brent Oil Near $80 as OPEC+ Adds More Crude to Tightening Market

(Bloomberg) — Oil was steady after OPEC and its allies agreed to a scheduled increase in production for next month, and an industry report pointed to another decline in U.S. crude inventories. Futures in London traded near $80 a barrel. OPEC+ on Tuesday stuck to its plan to add 400,000 barrels a day for February after it cut estimates for a surplus in the first quarter. The American Petroleum Institute reported U.S. stockpiles fell by 6.43 million barrels last week, according to people familiar with the data. Official government figures are due Wednesday. Oil finished 2021 on a strong footing as a string of global supply outages boosted sentiment. Consultant Facts Global Energy said the disruption — which in recent weeks has included Ecuador, Libya and Nigeria — totaled close to 1 million barrels a day. Though concerns about the hit to demand from the omicron virus variant have eased and major economies continue to rebound from the pandemic, there’s still some uncertainty in Asia. Hong Kong announced tighter curbs on Wednesday. Earlier this week, the small Chinese city of Yuzhou went into lockdown after a few virus cases, while Xi’an has seen prolonged restrictions after a flare-up. While oil is trading near $80, “the market is clearly concentrating on the price supportive news,” said Barbara Lambrecht, an energy analyst at Commerzbank AG. “Whether the optimism will suffice to ignore the looming supply surplus in any lasting fashion will presumably depend chiefly on the omicron wave.” The actual volume that OPEC+ adds to the market in February could be less than planned, due to some members struggling to hit production targets. Energy Aspects Ltd. co-founder Amrita Sen predicts the alliance will increase output by 250,000 barrels a day next month. NN: See we took profits at $70…… So let them get all hysterical and drive prices higher so we can do a play it again Sam number on them……

Mercedes warns owners of fire risk it can’t fix…

Mercedes-Benz has warned owners of some of its cars there’s a risk they could catch fire. And the firm can’t do anything about it because it can’t get the parts needed for a fix. The company says the problem concerns a possible leakage in the vehicles’ coolant pumps. It says there’s no point doing a recall until the required components become available. In the meantime it advises owners of affected vehicles to reduce usage to a bare minimum, and to drive in a “particularly prudent” manner. Germany’s Bild newspaper published a copy of a letter the Daimler unit sent to 800,000 owners. The firm confirmed the letter was authentic, but wouldn’t comment on the number of vehicles involved. It says the fault affects a wide range of cars, including sedans and SUVs. Like many automakers, Mercedes has been battling a global shortage of parts including for computer chips. NN: The old grey mare just ain’t what she use to be…

Iran believes that maneuvering missiles, drones will evade air defense

https://youtu.be/KnRpDytQv0k

The Islamic Republic is seeking to improve its missile and drone capability to tap into the latest technology from Russia and China and learn how to get around the latest air-defense systems, according to Iranian military analysts who were cited in a long article published by Iran’s Tasnim News Agency. The interesting article was transparent in laying out where Tehran seeks to go next in its offensive military technology. Iran already has a plethora of drones and missiles and is seeking greater impact in the realm of space. Tehran now says it wants to learn from the experience of history how missiles have defeated air defense. “It should be noted that maneuvering ballistic warheads are just one step away from Hypersonic Gliding Vehicles (HGVs), which are now the cutting edge of missile technology in warheads,” the report said. “This type of projectile differs from maneuvering warheads only in design and flight path, and its speed varies from Mach 5 to 20 [3,836 mph-15,345 mph] depending on the design and opinion of the manufacturer,” it said. “Instead of gaining altitude, such as ballistic missiles, HGV projectiles travel at much lower altitudes with the possibility of frequent reorientation, and as a result, the early defense radars of the enemy defense have difficulty detecting them and may surprise the enemy missile defense complex.” Iran’s interest here is in learning from Chinese military technology. It openly says the Chinese have moved in the direction of HGV projectiles; Iran likely wants the same weapons. Tehran and Beijing recently signed a 25-year cooperation agreement. This may not involve missiles yet, but Iran could be seeking more technology from North Korea, China and Russia in the coming years. Iran also says its rockets have improved maneuverability. It references the Qadr rocket and what it says is a detachable warhead on the Qiam and Sajil missiles. “The new warhead has a higher height and volume in the lower conical part, which can be the location of a propellant,” the report said. “To compare the simple guided type of three-cone warheads with control wings… Despite the dimensional differences, the new warhead is designed to be compatible with existing missiles. As a result, all Qadr, Sajil and Qiam missiles will be able to be used effectively against targets protected by missile defense systems such as Patriot, Arrow and Aegis with the help of the new warhead.” IRAN IS thus openly saying it seeks to get around Israel’s Arrow air-defense system. Israel has a multilayered air-defense system with Arrow, David’s Sling and Iron Dome; it also has Patriot batteries. Israel and the US cooperate closely on these issues. “The country’s missile scientists have overcome these problems only six years after the unveiling of [the] Emad [missile] and have taken a very important step toward increasing the impact of the country’s missile capability,” the report said. “Missile defense systems have significant weaknesses due to their dependence on the same path prediction, which is even more acute than the problems of interference and saturation of their radars,” it said. Iran cited the failure of Patriots to stop Iraqi Scud missiles in 1991 as an example. “In that system, due to the dependence of the accuracy of the radar calculations on the duration of the [missile’s flight], a small computational error” will cause a “cumulative effect… over time,” causing the radar “to err in predicting the next point of presence of the missile in the path and the inappropriate area,” the report said. “Until now, Iranian missiles have relied on increasing maximum speed and decreasing geometric dimensions and radar reflection to overcome the enemy missile defense systems. Methods of reducing radar reflection or interfering with radars” is one challenge, it said. “There is always the possibility of being hit by warheads, especially at low speed.” The report openly discussed the difficulties Iran has had and how it is overcoming the need for better missiles. This is obviously aimed at threatening Israel, the US and Saudi Arabia, among other countries. “Prior to the unveiling of the Emad missile, the warheads of Iranian long-range missiles only reached the accuracy obtained from the navigation systems and the overall guidance and control of the missile, after separation from the missile body could no longer correct the path and increase accuracy,” the report said. It cited the Fateh family of missiles, “which were capable of being guided to the end of the route.” It also discussed the detachable warhead on the Emad missile and increasing accuracy. “This capability was then extended to the Ghadr, Qayam [Qiam] and Khorramshahr family of missiles, and even the Shahab 2 missiles were not spared,” the report said. “In recent years, long-range missiles have taken on anti-ship missions in addition to reaching a point-to-point range of 2,000 km.,” the report said. “This aspect of the missile capability guarantees the role of thwarting the enemy’s crude plans in attacking the borders of the Islamic homeland of Iran.” The report discussed recent Iranian drills using kamikaze drones and missiles. The new Iranian strategy combines drone and missile threats. “Our long-range missiles, including Sajil, Qadr and Emad, were also fired during the exercise,” the report said. “It should be noted that the number of missiles present at the scene of the operation was more than this, but their [lack of public use] caused suspicion. “In an exercise, different units are used at different levels. Four of the at least seven missiles… were prepared for firing and were operatively used. Other missiles simply were trained and prepared for the targeting process with teams of new and old officers, while other launchers at the missile bases may have simply completed the preparation before entering the battlefield.” The point the article was trying to make is that the decision not to test all the missiles was not due to failure. It is unclear if this is true. Overall, the point of this latest report was to raise the curtain on Iran’s strategy. More missiles, more drones and better precision, combined with maneuvering missiles, precision-guided munitions and perhaps a decision to look into glide vehicles and new technologies with China or Russia, means that air defenders in the region will need to up their game against these increasingly dangerous Iranian threats. NN: The hyper sonic missile that travels at 15,000 miles per hour is a game changer. Radars car barely pick them up. And their is no system to stop them. Russia and China are far ahead in this technology. They will soon be deploying them in their arsenals. Like in most things the once mighty empire America is sleeping. When we make a killing in the markets you need to make a very deep bomb shelter…..