LONDON (Reuters) – International investors that have been piling into China in recent years are now bracing for one of its great falls as the troubles of over-indebted property giant China Evergrande come to a head. The developer’s woes have been snowballing since May. Dwindling resources set against 2 trillion yuan ($305 billion) of liabilities have wiped nearly 80% off its stock and bond prices and an $80 million bond coupon payment now looms next week. What happens then is unclear. Bankers have said it will most likely miss the payment and go into a kind of suspended animation where authorities step in and sell some of its assets, but it could easily get messy. “We will have to see what happens,” said Sid Dahiya, head of EM corporate bonds at abrdn, formerly Aberdeen Standard, in London, which holds a small sliver of the bonds. “They are probably working on a deal in the background, but we don’t have any clarity and we don’t really have any precedents, so it is uncharted water.” Evergrande warned just over two weeks ago that it risked defaulting on its debt if it failed to raise cash. Since then it has said that no progress has been made with those efforts. Analysts say the bigger picture is that if Evergrande – which has more than 1,300 real estate projects in over 280 cities – does topple, it will firmly dispel the idea that some Chinese firms are too big to fail. It would probably still apply to big state-linked firms of course, but it comes too after Beijing’s clampdowns on big tech firms like Alibaba and Tencent wiped nearly a trillion dollars off its markets earlier in year. Contagion from Evergrande has largely been confined to China’s other highly-indebted “high-yield” firms which have also slumped, but Hong Kong’s heavyweight Hang Seng also hit a 10-month low on Thursday showing there is some spread.  There are big name global funds involved too. EMAXX data shows that Amundi, Europe’s largest asset manager, was the largest overall holder of Evergrande’s international bonds although it is likely to have sold at least some before things turned really ugly. The Paris-headquartered firm had just under $93 million of a $625 million bond due for repayment in June 2025 the EMAXX data shows. UBS Asset Management was the number two holder in that issue with $85 million as well as one of the bigger overall holders. Amundi’s Co-Head of EM Corporate & EM High Yield, Colm d’Rosario described the fundamental picture for many Chinese firms as intact “For now, however, we await the commencement of a restructuring process (of Evergrande) to gather more information.” “It remains to be seen the scale of loss that investors will face.”

Back in April Evergrande’s bonds were trading around 90 cents on the dollar, now they are closer to 25 cents.

“It was always priced as a risky high-yield investment but what prices are telling you today is that there was some surprise that the government would let it go fully,” said the head of emerging market debt at U.S. fund Aegon Asset Management Jeff Grills.

He added it has been a text book example where investors had been lured in by the 10% plus interest rate the bonds had provided.

According to the letter Evergrande sent to the Chinese government late last year, its liabilities involve more than 128 banks and over 120 other types of institutions. A group of Evergrande bondholders has selected investment bank Moelis & Co and law firm Kirkland & Ellis as advisers on a potential restructuring of a tranche of bonds, two sources close to the matter said.

Other funds also exposed to the bonds include the world’s biggest asset manager BlackRock, as well dozens more such as Fidelity, Goldman Sachs asset management and PIMCO.

Major U.S. financial firms including BlackRock and Goldman, and the likes of Blackstone, are due to meet with officials from China’s central bank and its banking and securities regulators later on Thursday. Debt analysts hope though the damage might not be too widespread. The holdings are tiny compared to those big investment firms’ overall size. Also only $6.75 billion of near $20 billion of Evergrande debt are included on JPMorgan’s CEMBI index which big emerging market corporate debt buyers use as a kind of shopping list. Others are still wary though of the wider signal it sends. “This is part of a self-reinforcing dynamic in which rising insolvency risk sets off financial distress costs, which in turn increase insolvency risk,” Michael Pettis, a nonresident senior fellow at the Carnegie–Tsinghua Center for Global Policy, said on twitter. “Until regulators step in and credibly address insolvency risk across the board, conditions are likely only to deteriorate.” Some veteran emerging market crisis watchers also think the troubles still have further to run. “This unwind hasn’t even really started,” said Hans Humes at EM debt-focused hedge fund Greylock Capital.  Nick Note: what did Black Rock, Fidelity and  the investment banked whores do when they realized their Chinese investments were going tapioca? What they usually do. Suck as many people in as possible. Damn near every investment house has recommendations urging investors to “diversify” into China.

SCIENTISTS have raised new concerns about the rapid spread of the Delta variant of coronavirus, warning new restrictions “may still be required” even after a successful vaccine rollout. The Covid warning comes after the Government did not rule out a “firebreak” lockdown in response to rising infections and hospitalisations with COVID-19, but only as “a last resort” measure. The Delta variant was first reported in India last year and has quickly proven to be more easily transmissible and resistant to Covid antibodies. The SARS-CoV-2 B.1.617.2 variant has since spread to more than 90 countries and has emerged as the leading cause of infections in the UK, US and Israel, among others.

US stocks ended a mixed session as investors digested better-than-expected August retail sales and the latest weekly jobless claims report. August retail sales surprised the market and rose 0.7% from the month prior, the Census Bureau reported. Economists expected a 0.8% month-over-month decline. Meanwhile, the latest unemployment insurance weekly data showed 332,000 first-time jobless claims last week, higher than expectations for 320,000 initial claims. On the day, the DJIA fell by 63 points, or 0.18%, to 34,751, while the S&P 500 dropped 0.16% to 4,473.  But the tech-heavy Nasdaq increased 0.13% to 15,181 Major stock markets in the United States closed mostly lower on Thursday as President Joe Biden argued the coronavirus pandemic has caused new supply chain issues in the United States.Earlier today, a report showed the number of initial jobless claims in the US unexpectedly increased during the first week of September. The Dow Jones declined by 0.18% at the closing bell. The S&P 500 fell 0.16%. On the other hand, the Nasdaq 100 inched up by 0.08% with Etsy soaring 3.10%. The euro lost 0.40% against the dollar to 1.176681 at 3:59 pm ET.

LONDON (Reuters) – England launched its COVID-19 booster vaccination campaign on Thursday, the National Health Service (NHS) said, after officials and the government gave the go-ahead for the programme earlier in the week. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson on Tuesday outlined how the booster programme for over-50s and other priority groups will form a key plank of his plan to navigate the winter without further coronavirus lockdowns. Booster vaccinations will be given at least six months after people received their second dose of COVID-19 vaccine, meaning the rollout will roughly follow the original priority list, and start with the oldest, most vulnerable and health workers. NHS England said that hospital hubs had started vaccinating health workers, with full rollout to the community set to begin next week. “It is brilliant to see that the first booster jabs are being rolled out today,” health minister Sajid Javid said. “I urge everyone who is eligible to come forward for their booster when invited, to prolong the protection that the vaccine offers those most at risk as we approach the winter months.” Britain’s Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI) recommended that Pfizer/BioNTech’s shot be used in the booster campaign, or alternatively a half-dose of Moderna’s vaccine. The government also decided this week to move ahead with mass vaccination of children aged 12-15, which the NHS said would begin in schools next week.

France suspends 3,000 health staff as Europe targets vaccine refusal

PARIS (Reuters) – Hospitals, care homes and health centres have suspended around 3,000 workers across France for failing to comply with mandatory COVID vaccination, the government said on Thursday, as countries around Europe weigh how far to go to combat the pandemic https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/european-nations-plans-coping-with-covid-19-2021-09-15. While Italy is set to announce later on Thursday that proof of vaccination or a negative test will be compulsory for all workers, going further than any other country in the region, the Netherlands plans a similar step – but only to go to bars or clubs https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/dutch-expected-ease-covid-19-measures-introduce-corona-pass-2021-09-14. Britain, meanwhile, says it is highly likely to require front-line health and social care workers in England to be vaccinated as part of a plan https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/uk-likely-require-health-workers-be-vaccinated-against-covid-2021-09-14 to contain the virus during winter. In France, President Emmanuel Macron’s decision in mid-July to require a similar health pass to go anywhere from restaurants to gyms and museums, and make the jab mandatory for health workers, has massively increased vaccination take-up. With the mandate for workers in hospitals and care homes taking effect on Wednesday, its very concrete impact – unvaccinated staff forbidden to work – started to be felt https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/french-hospital-worker-im-hunger-strike-over-vaccine-mandate-2021-09-16. According to local daily Nice Matin, nearly 450 health workers – out of 7,500 – have been suspended in just one hospital in the city of Nice, in southern France. The government, however, shrugged off the impact. “It hasn’t been chaos, far from it,” Health Minister Olivier Veran told French RTL radio, adding there were 27 million workers in the sector. There have been a few cases where it has affected care, he said, like the use of an MRI being briefly complicated, but most suspended staff work in support roles, limiting the impact. “Most of the suspensions are only temporary … many have decided to get vaccinated as they see that the vaccination mandate is a reality,” Veran said. But unions warn of likely disruptions to care, and just a few absentees in a team is enough to trigger a crisis, Emmanuel Chignon, a care home manager in Bordeaux told Reuters this week, pointing to how hard it was to hire staff https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/french-care-home-some-staff-quit-over-vaccine-mandate-2021-09-15 in the sector. “If we can’t replace the carers who leave, the work will fall on the others, and I fear an unvirtuous circle, with tiredness, exhaustion and an increase in absenteeism,” he said. In Italy, where vaccination for health workers was made mandatory at the end of March, some have been suspended, but with numbers nowhere near those seen in France. As of Sept. 16, some 728 doctors in all of Italy had been suspended for failing to be vaccinated, the Italian doctors’ federation said. Italy is now set to go much further and announce on Thursday that a “Green pass” – showing someone has received at least one vaccine dose, tested negative or recently recovered from the virus – will be mandatory for all public and private sector workers. Failure to have a Green Pass will result in workers being suspended and losing their pay. In other countries, like the Netherlands, opinion polls show a majority of the public favouring mandatory vaccination for health workers, with the workers themselves mostly opposed to it, and the government has said it will not take such measures. However a pass showing proof of vaccination or a recent negative coronavirus test is set to be required there as of Sept 25 to go to bars, restaurants, clubs or cultural events.  Although polls have shown that a majority of the Dutch support the measure, the pass is strongly opposed by the around 30% of the population who have so far refused to be vaccinated. Critics say the measure is meant to force people to get the jab. Nick Note: I expect Bob the cable guy to be stupid, But a scientist a doctor a registered nurse. They should fire them for being stupid! Do i really want staff at my hospital to be unvaccinated…. REALLY after all we learned about covid spread in the nurseing homes by unvaccinated care givers…..

Beijing, China — China has fully vaccinated more than one billion people against the coronavirus — 71 percent of its population — official figures showed Thursday. The country had mostly curbed the virus within its borders but is racing to get the vast majority of its population vaccinated as a new outbreak takes hold in the southeast. “As of September 15, 2.16 billion vaccine doses have been administered nationwide,” said National Health Commission spokesman Mi Feng at a press briefing. Chinese health authorities said late last month that 890 million people in China had been fully vaccinated and two billion doses administered. The government has not publicly announced a target for vaccination coverage, but top virologist Zhong Nanshan said last month that the country is likely to have 80 percent of its population inoculated by the end of the year. China is currently battling an outbreak of the Delta variant in the southeastern province of Fujian that has infected almost 200 people so far in three cities, many of whom are schoolchildren. The Fujian cluster is the biggest rebound in weeks and comes after the country declared the Delta variant under control, in a test of China’s “zero-case” approach to the pandemic. China reported 80 new cases on Thursday, of which 49 were domestic transmissions. Nick Note: Good for China they are approaching 80% of their population “fully” vaccinated. One of the reasons I do not fear China like most people is because of this,  never is  heard a disparaging word. It might be maddening at times but conflict makes democracy work. Everyone has a asshole and a opinion. And most opinions are asshole opinions. I do not fear as much for America as some of you and here is why. 

‘Americans eventually gets things right,’ said Winston Churchill, but only  ‘after they exhaust every other possibility  trying.’ 

 America is a reactive society rather than a pro-active one.  So as you are seeing the  US reacts to problems by exhausting first things that do not work. But in that shifting EVENTUALLY America will scratch its ass and get it right. China is a proactive society. Unfortunately the proactive decisions are made by a very few people. And their is no discussion, no debate and no consideration of other possibilities. Which means they get their first. But often time they draw the wrong conclusion. Because no matter how smart the decision makers are… Eventually they get it wrong. Its impossible to get it right every time. Eventually their system will fail. And that is the case with their vaccine. It was developed in a military lab. With no doubters please…… And the vaccine is less then 50% EFFECTIVE,  So at the end of the day what have they really achieved……. We shall see!

Now for my secret. I am both reactive and proactive. I get their first. I consider ALL opinions and i weigh them carefully. And then I wait and watch. Being pretty fast at the starting gate. I usually can get the right decisions first. But always being my worst critic. I have no fear of being wrong, considering opposing opinions and changing my opinions as the facts dictate. I am not married to any idea or conclusion……..

WASHINGTON — White House coronavirus response coordinator Jeff Zients said Wednesday the United States is a developing a “new system for international travel” that will include new strong mitigation procedures like contact tracing.  the administration does not plan to immediately relax any travel restrictions because of COVID-19 Delta variant cases. “We are exploring considering vaccination requirements for foreign nationals traveling to the United States,” Zients said. Coronavirus response coordinator Jeff Zients said Wednesday the United States is a developing a “new system for international travel” that will include new strong mitigation procedures like contact tracing. Zients told the U.S. Travel and Tourism Advisory Board Wednesday the administration does not plan to immediately relax any travel restrictions because of COVID-19 Delta variant cases. “We are exploring considering vaccination requirements for foreign nationals traveling to the United States,” Zients said. he idea was shelved, but top White House officials say that proposal and similar ones are still under consideration – including, potentially, a broader vaccine mandate that would include domestic air travel. “We’re discussing it,” Anthony Fauci, President Joe Biden’s chief medical adviser, said about the idea of a broader requirement in an interview. “It’s on the table for discussion.” Nick Note: What good does it do to TRY and trace the people who get infected on every single flight. would it not be smarted to shut it down until they get the third booster shot? Nah the politicians are owned by the travel and leisure industry…

Shutdowns related to Hurricane Ida held down gain in industrial production by 0.3 percentage point, Fed says