Posts

Posted on

U.S. Manufacturing Growth Held Up in August But Supply Strains Hamper Activity — ISM

The U.S. manufacturing sector kept expanding at a solid pace in August but persistent supply-chain challenges constrained growth, according to a survey of purchasing managers in the sector. The ISM Manufacturing Report on Business PMI rose to 59.9 in August from 59.5 in July, according to data from the Institute for Supply Management released Wednesday. Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal expected the index to come in at 58.6.August data suggest that the country’s factory activity expanded robustly, with four of the five subindexes that form the headline PMI above the 50-point threshold that indicates growth.

However, the index signals that the expansion pace of the manufacturing sector has slowed from March’s four-decade high level.

Respondents said their companies and suppliers continue to struggle at unprecedented levels to meet increasing demand, said Timothy Fiore, chair of the ISM Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. “All segments of the manufacturing economy are impacted by record-long raw-materials lead times, continued shortages of critical basic materials, rising commodities prices and difficulties in transporting products,” he said. It is likely that these supply-chain challenges will persist into next year, as many indicators of global supply bottlenecks remain heightened, economists say. In this context, the ISM index is likely to fall in the months ahead, but activity should improve once firms are able to build back their inventories and reduce the growing backlog of unfilled orders, Richard F. Moody, chief economist at Regions Financial Corp., said. “When that will happen, however, is anything but clear at this point,” he said. The ISM data for August signaled that demand for goods remained robust. The new orders index increased to 66.7 in August from 64.9 in July, the customers’ inventories index increased to 30.2 and the backlog of orders also rose to 68.2. The production index climbed to 60.0 from 58.4, while the employment index fell to 49.0, back to contraction territory, from 52.9 in July. Hiring difficulties were the most significant hurdle to further output in August, the report said. “Panelists’ companies and their supply chains continue to struggle to respond to strong demand due to difficulties in hiring and a clear cycle of labor turnover as workers opt for more attractive job conditions,” Mr. Fiore said. Supply-chain related problems continued to be apparent in August, though at slower rates compared with July. The supplier delivery index fell to 69.5 from 72.5 the previous month, while the inventories index rose to 54.2 from 48.9 the prior month.The prices index also eased slightly to 79.4 from 85.7 in July, the data showed.

Posted on

Tech stocks power Nasdaq to record high

The Nasdaq Composite has hit another record high, with high-growth technology stocks in the lead after weaker-than-expected private payrolls data raised hopes for an extended support from the US central bank. Technology stocks, which tend to benefit from a low-rate environment, were up 0.7 per cent, while sectors considered as bond-proxies such as utilities rose 1.2 per cent. Apple jumped 1.9 per cent to hit record highs, while Microsoft, Google, Amazon and Netflix gained one per cent. The ADP report, published ahead of the government’s more comprehensive employment report on Friday, showed US private employers hired far fewer workers than expected in August. “If we see employment slowing on Friday, the Fed is most likely to not hint at any tapering until jobs are back on track,” said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA. US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has suggested that an improving labour market will be a key factor affecting the decision for a tapering of its massive asset purchases. Wall Street’s main indexes have hit record highs recently, with the benchmark S&P 500 notching a solid 2.9 per cent rise in August as investors shrugged off risks around a rise in new coronavirus infections and hoped for the Fed to remain dovish in its policy stance. Another set of data showed US manufacturing activity unexpectedly picked up in August amid strong order growth, but a measure of factory employment dropped to a nine-month low, likely as workers remained scarce. Surveys earlier on Wednesday showed Asian and European factory activity lost momentum in August as the coronavirus pandemic disrupted supply chains. Economically sensitive energy stocks, materials and industrial stocks fell between 0.6 per cent and 0.9 per cent, keeping the S&P 500 and Dow subdued. Rate-sensitive banks fell as US government bond yields slipped. Wells Fargo fell 3.8 per cent, extending losses for a second day after report of US sanctions on the bank. In early trading on Wednesday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 45.90 points, or 0.13 per cent, at 35,314.83, the S&P 500 was up 5.74 points, or 0.13 per cent, at 4,528.42, and the Nasdaq Composite was up 84.99 points, or 0.56 per cent, at 15,344.22. Nick Note: As we discussed yesterday in Market News and Commentary we want to short the September rally. This will end badly for the Robin Hooders. Talk about a arrow in your ass…. They will be making a nice contribution to our wealth account.

Posted on

U.S. businesses created lackluster 374,000 jobs

Businesses in the U.S. created a lackluster 374,000 new jobs in August, a new ADP survey found, suggesting the delta strain of the coronavirus depressed hiring last month. The increase in private-sector jobs was weaker than expected. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal had forecast a 600,000 increase. The ADP employment report sometimes acts as an early-warning system of sorts for the government’s more comprehensive employment survey that comes out a few days later. Yet the two reports also diverge quite sharply from time to time and that’s been especially true during the pandemic. In July, for example, ADP said 326,000 private-sector jobs were created. The Labor Department reported a much larger 703,000 increase. Forget the month-to-month differences between the ADP and Labor Department job reports. Both show a big increase in private-sector employment over the summer — more than 2 million new jobs. It’s no surprise. Companies have a record number job openings to fill and they are trying to hire workers in anticipation that the latest coronavirus flareup will fade.

To be sure, delta has spurred companies to exercise more caution, especially restaurants and other businesses that deal face to face to customers. And it’s caused some consumers to avoid large crowds again.

That probably helps explains the somewhat slow in hiring in August, a notoriously fickle month to assess because so many people go on vacation..Yet by and large, the economy has held up well and it’s still growing at a fairly strong pace. Nick Note: Obviously things are slowing. Delta is the elephant in the room….

Posted on

Factories hit by pandemic-related supply disruptions

LONDON/TOKYO (Reuters) – Global factory activity lost momentum in August as the ongoing coronavirus pandemic-disrupted supply chains, raising concerns faltering manufacturing would add to economic woes caused by slumping consumption, surveys showed on Wednesday. Many firms reported logistical troubles, product shortages and a labour crunch which have made it a sellers’ market of the goods factories need, driving up prices. While factory activity remained strong in the euro zone, IHS Markit’s final manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell to 61.4 in August from July’s 62.8, below an initial 61.5 “flash” estimate. “Despite the strong PMI figures, we think that lingering supply-side issues and related producer price pressures might take longer to resolve than previously expected, increasing the downside risk to our forecast,” said Mateusz Urban at Oxford Economics. In Britain, where factories also faced disruptions, manufacturing output grew in August at the weakest rate for six months. The United States likely suffered a similar slowdown, data is expected to show later on Wednesday. [GB/PMIM] Canada’s economy unexpectedly shrank last quarter and in July, official data showed on Tuesday – hurt by decreases in manufacturing, construction and retail trade – and Australia reported slower growth in the second quarter on Wednesday.Meanwhile, Southeast Asia – a low-cost manufacturing hub for many global companies – was hit particularly hard with factory activity shrinking in Vietnam, Indonesia and Malaysia because of virus outbreaks and output suspensions. And in a worrying sign for the global economy, China’s factory activity slipped into contraction in August for the first time in nearly 1-1/2 years as COVID-19 curbs, supply bottlenecks and high raw material prices weighed on output. China’s Caixin/Markit Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.2 in August, from 50.3 in July, breaching the 50-mark separating growth from contraction. The result was well below market expectations, underscoring the fragile nature of China’s recovery that had helped the global economy emerge from pandemic-induced doldrums. The private survey followed an official PMI on Tuesday, which showed the index falling in August but staying above the 50 mark.

“The elephant in the room for the long North Asia, short ASEAN view is China. This morning, the Caixin Manufacturing PMI followed yesterday’s official number South, falling under 50,” said Jeffrey Halley at OANDA.

“That rounds out a grim week for China’s PMIs as COVID-19 lockdowns and the same supply chain challenges the rest of the world is experiencing erode economic performance.” Export power-houses Japan, South Korea and Taiwan also saw manufacturing activity expand at a slower pace in August, a sign chip shortages and factory shutdowns in the region could delay a sustained recovery from the pandemic-induced slump. The surveys highlight the pandemic’s broadening damage in Southeast Asia, where soaring infections and subsequent lockdown measures have hurt both the service and manufacturing sectors.

Delta variant outbreaks in the region have caused supply chain headaches for the world’s largest manufacturers, many of which rely on auto parts and semiconductors made in low-cost bases such as Thailand, Vietnam and Malaysia.

“If the strict lockdown measures continue, Southeast Asia may find it hard to remain a global production hub,” said Makoto Saito, an economist at NLI Research Institute. Japan’s PMI eased and new export orders posted their first contraction since January. South Korea’s index fell to 51.2. In Vietnam and Malaysia, activity was hurt by lockdown measures and rising infections that forced some factories to suspend operations. Vietnam saw factory activity shrink while Malaysia’s PMI stood at 43.4 in August. Once seen as a driver of global growth, Asia’s emerging economies are lagging advanced economies in recovering from the pandemic’s pain as delays in vaccine rollouts and a spike in Delta variant cases hurt consumption and factory production. Growth in India’s factory sector activity slowed as persistent pandemic-related weakness weighed on demand and output, forcing firms to cut jobs again following a brief recovery in July. Nick Note: No need for lockdowns…. When they are suffocating or hooked up to a ventilator its kind-of hard to show up to work.

Posted on

German retail sales slump signals weak start to third quarter

BERLIN, Sept 1 (Reuters) – German retail sales fell by far more than expected in July after two months of sharp increases, data showed on Wednesday, in a first sign that a consumer-driven recovery in Europe’s largest economy might be losing steam in the third quarter. The Federal Statistics Office said retail sales dropped 5.1% on the month in real terms after a revised jump of 4.5% in June and an increase of 4.6% in May. The July reading missed a Reuters forecast for a fall of 0.9%. The monthly comparison was distorted heavily by the lifting of COVID-19 restrictions on shopping in most parts of the country in June, the statistics office said. Retail sales – a volatile indicator often subject to revisions – edged down by 0.3% in real terms year on year, it added. Compared with February 2020, the month before the coronavirus crisis hit Germany, retail sales were up 3.8%.  T he German economy returned to growth in the second quarter but bounced back less strongly than other euro zone countries as supply chain bottlenecks slowed industrial output. Supply problems with raw materials and intermediate goods, coupled with rising COVID-19 cases because of the more contagious Delta variant, are driving companies to take a dimmer view of the coming months.  Bankhaus Lampe analyst Alexander Krueger believes that retail sales are likely to recover in the comings months, with the labour market strong and more companies scaling back short-time work schemes introduced during the pandemic. However, overall support for the economy from household spending could be less strong in the third quarter than many had hoped for, he added. Nick Note: kicking and screaming the whole way…. the global economy and supply chains will shut down for another round of corona mutation fun bypassing the 2 shot vaccine,.

Posted on

China’s factory activity contracts for first time since April 2020

https://youtu.be/7qhhJxESoEo

BEIJING (Reuters) – China’s factory activity slipped into contraction in August for the first time in nearly 1-1/2 years as COVID-19 containment measures, supply bottlenecks and high raw material prices weighed on output in a blow to the economy. The slowdown in the manufacturing sector underscores the fragility of the ongoing economic recovery and the impact of strict coronavirus curbs in the country, backing expectations Beijing will roll out more support measures to revitalise growth. Two separate official surveys released on Tuesday showed China’s factory activity grew at a slower pace, while the services sector slumped into contraction. The Caixin/Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell to 49.2 last month, from 50.3 in July, breaching the 50-mark that separates growth from contraction. The result was well below expectations by analysts polled by Reuters, who had forecast the index at 50.2. New export orders tumbled into contraction for the first time since February, while factories laid off more workers than they hired.  The strict lockdown measures of China’s “zero-cases” approach to COVID-19 controls successfully squashed an outbreak of the more infectious Delta variant across several provinces in August, but also hit economic activity.

“The latest COVID-19 resurgence has posed a severe challenge to the economic normalization that began in the second quarter of last year,” said Wang Zhe, senior economist at Caixin Insight Group, in comments released alongside the data.

Many analysts expect the central bank to deliver a further cut to the amount of cash banks must hold as reserves later this year to lift growth, on top of July’s cut which released around 1 trillion yuan ($6.47 trillion) in long-term liquidity into the economy. A sub-index for production fell to 47.7, the slowest pace of expansion since February last year at the height of the pandemic, while another sub-index for new orders slipped to 48.0. Companies reported COVID-19 restrictions had dampened demand and led to sourcing difficulties. A shortage of chips has also been crimping manufacturing. “Due to the lack of chips this year, the demand for auto parts has decreased,” said an auto parts exporter in eastern China’s Suzhou surnamed Huang. “Our factory has been continuously reducing production, and in July and August, I heard that some factories stopped production. At the moment it looks like chips will continue to be in short supply,” he said.

An index of confidence in the year ahead stood steady. Input and output prices continued to rise and at a faster pace.

“Authorities need to take a holistic view and balance containing COVID-19, stabilizing the job market, and maintaining stability in supply and prices,” Caixin’s Wang said. Nick Note: I am watching the slow down and inflation circle the globe…

Posted on

US consumer confidence lowest since February

WASHINGTON (AP) — U.S. consumer confidence fell in August to the lowest level since February amid rising concerns about the rapidly spreading delta variant of the coronavirus and worries about higher inflation. The Conference Board reported Tuesday that its consumer confidence index dropped to a reading of 113.8 in August, down from a revised 125.1 in July. It was the lowest level for the index since a reading of 95.2 in February. The July index was revised from down from an initially reported 129.1 which followed a reading of 128.9 in June, the best showing since before the pandemic struck in February 2020.

The Conference Board said that concerns about the resurgence in COVID cases as well as worries about rising gas and food prices had contributed to the drop.

With the August decline, the overall index is 19 points below its pre-pandemic level. The drop in August reflected a weakening in both the current conditions and expectations components of the index. The report showed that spending intentions for purchases of homes, autos and major appliances cooled in August, but the percentage of consumers intending to take a vacation in the next six months continued to climb. “While the resurgence of COVID-19 and inflation concerns have dampened confidence, it is too soon to conclude this decline will result in consumers significantly curtailing their spending in the months ahead,” said Lynn Franco, senior director of economic indicators for the Conference Board. The decline in the Conference Board’s monthly consumer confidence gauge follow a sharp fall reported Friday in the reading from the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment survey. Kathy Bostjancic, chief U.S. financial economist for Oxford Economics, said the declines in consumer sentiment were occurring at a time when consumer spending has slowed from the sizzling gains seen in the first six months of the year. But many analysts said they still expect further gains in consumer spending in the coming months, given the high levels of savings households have currently. “Americans overall are flush with cash and eager to spend it as the economy reopens,” said Robert Frick, corporate economist with Navy Federal Credit Union. Nick Note: Their is one little problem here. Not only is the economy not opening up…. In fact its shutting back down again. And this is another report that proves my point.

Posted on

Factbox: Latest on the origin of the coronavirus

Exclusive to the WSI and Pandemic Informer. Nick Note: I want to be clear here. Its a fact that the covid19 virus originated in bats. The bat species Rhinolophus macrotis (horseshoe Bat) is not in Wuhan but from Yunnan province.

A very rare species.  It was never sold in the Wuhan Market. It is also a fact that the Chines bat lady Dr Lee was in the caves in Yunnan  province and captured the big-eared horseshoe bats….

because they carried 71% antibodies of what you know as covid19  virus, the most of any bat species. They collected live specimens from the remote secret cave where this particular  species was found and brought them to the Wuhan lab for experimentation IE genetic engineering.. In fact Zhengli Shi confirmed the finding:

In 2004, deep in the wilderness of China’s Yunnan province, a group of scientists from the Wuhan Institute of Virology discovered a cave full of wild bats carrying hundreds of SARS-related viruses. Their work was published in a draft paper in 2005,

i obtained a copy of that study tittle: Bats are natural reservoirs of SAR like coronaviruses…. link below

This paper  unearthed the link between SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome) and bats for the first time. The virologist who led that study, Shi Zhengli, one of the strains found in that cave — the exact location of which is a closely guarded secret — is almost identical to the 2019-nCoV coronavirus which has so far killed million of people and infected hundreds of million worldwide. Costing the global economy trillions of dollars in losses

And it is a established fact that Dr Zhengli Shi was doing Genetic experimentation  on said bats in the Wuhan bio level 4 labs. And it is a fact that 3 lab workers became infected and died, Please note by some amazing coincidence ALL the worlds recent SARS and Corona Viruses epidemics have originated out of China.

like corona viruses

Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) emerged in 2002 to 2003 in southern China. The origin of its etiological agent, the SARS coronavirus (SARS-CoV), remains elusive. Here we report that species of bats are a natural host of coronaviruses closely related to those responsible for the SARS outbreak. These viruses, termed SARS-like coronaviruses (SL-CoVs), display greater genetic variation than SARS-CoV isolated from humans or from civets. The human and civet isolates of SARS-CoV nestle phylogenetically within the spectrum of SL-CoVs, indicating that the virus responsible for the SARS outbreak was a member of this coronavirus group. SEE LINK BELOW

China Report SARS and Corona Virus from 2005

 

Bats are natural reservoirs of SARS and corona virus from PUB REPORT 2017

Yet another piece of the pandemic puzzle has fallen into place – after being hidden in plain sight until it was wiped from the Wuhan Institute of Virology’s (WIV) website. Unearthed by The National Pulse’s Natalie Winters, a Nov. 2017 report titled): “Bats in China carry all the ingredients to make a new SARS virus,” describes how researchers at the Wuhan Institute of Virology had identified ‘all the genes to make a SARS coronavirus similar to the epidemic strain,’ among 11 new strains of viruses collected in horseshoe bats. Report  published in 2017.  SEE LINK BELOW

Discovery of gene pool SARS-related corona viruses in Bats

 

Posted on

Delta variant likely to hurt U.S. restaurant recovery -report

NEW YORK, Aug 31 (Reuters) – The spread of the Delta variant of COVID-19 threatens the fragile recovery of U.S. restaurants, according to a report on Tuesday from the National Restaurant Association.

Nearly one in five adults surveyed online from August 13-15 said they stopped going to restaurants as Delta cases rose, the report said.

Total annual sales at U.S. restaurants are expected to rise 19.7% from 2020 to $789 billion in 2021. But that will still be 8.7% lower than 2019’s $864.3 billion total sales, the report said. “There has been some back-off as the Delta variant has taken hold,” Hudson Riehle, a National Restaurant Association executive, said of consumer behavior. Average daily U.S. COVID cases rose to 466 people per million people as of Aug. 29 on a seven-day rolling average, versus fewer than 40 in mid-June, according to Our World in Data. The rise and continuing uncertainty have forced the cancellation of major events and could hamper tourism. U.S. restaurants – hurt last year by occupancy limits and public fear about dining out – stand to lose more business if tourism wanes. For example, sales at American steakhouses soared over the summer. But because they rely heavily on tourists and private business bookings, the Delta spread threatens their comeback.  Some U.S. fast-food restaurants – including McDonald’s Corp (MCD.N), Yum Brand Inc’s (YUM.N) Taco Bell and KFC – are closing indoor seating areas or limiting hours of operation because of the Delta variant. Restaurant sales dropped in August from July, according to Black Box Intelligence data. July’s sales were 8.1% higher than in 2019, but sales in August through Aug. 22 were up only 6.3% over 2019. Three in five respondents to the association’s survey said they changed the way they spend money and eat at restaurants because of the Delta variant, such as by ordering takeout and delivery instead of eating on site, sitting outside rather than indoors or cancelling plans to dine out. Nick Note: I am so done with restaurants. At the most the millennial’s bring carry out. Definitely not worth the price.