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ECB’s Knot Warns Central Bank Could Be Underestimating Inflation STOCK MARKET CRASH COMING

(Bloomberg) — European Central Bank policy maker Klaas Knot warned that policy makers may be underestimating the potential for accelerating inflation to become entrenched, and that emergency monetary stimulus should end around March 2022. While the ECB predicts that current elevated inflation rates are temporary — driven by rebounding energy prices and supply shortages as the economy reopens — the Dutch central bank governor said the outcome may be different. “We should not overestimate our capacity to determine in advance what is temporary inflation and what is not,” he said in an interview with Dutch newspaper NRC. “There are other scenarios conceivable than our base case of persistently low inflation. Inflation is not dead.” The ECB is expected to debate the future of its 1.85 trillion-euro ($2.2 trillion) pandemic bond-buying program after the summer, with some on the 25-member Governing Council worried that monetary support will be pared back too soon. Knot said he has doubts about the central bank’s “activist” use of its balance sheet as a policy tool, and that he regularly expresses that sentiment in policy meetings. ”It is good that we acted quickly in this crisis,” he said. “But as soon as the fire is under control, the fire brigade has to return to the barracks. That should be the case around March 2022.” The Dutch governor, who also said he might not have backed negative interest rates in 2014 if he’d known how long they would last, said his views on inflation were influenced by conversations with officials who experienced the 1970s. He is a member of the Group of 30, a gathering of mostly former central bankers and policy makers. He noted rising house prices as one sign of perceived price pressures, and called for tighter lending standards in the Netherlands. Real estate was the most popular discussion when the Dutch central bank held a “listening event” with citizens and civil society groups as part of the ECB’s strategy review.That review is studying how to better reflect the cost of home ownership in its measures of inflation, and Knot said he backs a change. “We as central bankers complain that inflation is too low, but when you talk to people in the country, they say that everything has become so terribly expensive. And then you ask them: what has become so expensive? Then they say: my housing costs,” he said. “And then we say, sorry, but that’s not in our index. Of course that can’t be true.”  Nick Note: For the past 2 weeks i have been doing a deep dive on the data. Pretty intensive stuff. My conclusion is stimulus is out of control. Sparking 3 bubbles.

  1. Stock market… overvaluations like never seen before
  2.  Housing bubble…talk about girls gone wild.
  3. Inflation embedded wage and material inflation and inflationary expectations will soar

Nothing short of a Fed exorcism can stop this. Taper crises coming as Fed stops buying mortgage bundles MBS  and corporate debt through PMCCF bundles. As they are forced to stop (tapering) and fight inflation perceptions…. To do so  interest rates will soar. You are about to see the biggest stock market and real estate crash ever. I am putting together our trade strategy which i will outline for you after the fourth of July Delta  infection spread  fest… Stay tuned for the real fireworks………………..

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Fed’s Daly: Tapering may be appropriate before end of year

(Reuters) -Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly said the U.S. central bank may be able to start reducing “a little bit” of its extraordinary support for the U.S. economy by the end of this year.   “The economy is really shaping up nicely,” Daly told the Associated Press in an interview, a recording of which was provided to Reuters by the San Francisco Fed.   “It is appropriate to consider tapering asset purchases later this year or early next year,” she said. “That timeframe has been evolving of course, but I really see the economy as being able to start functioning more and more on its own, which means we can withdraw a little bit of our accommodation, of course not the majority of it.”    Fed policymakers have been surprised at the strength of the U.S. recovery this year, fueled by $2.8 trillion in federal pandemic aid and a faster-than-expected rollout of vaccines against COVID-19.   That has touched off an internal debate over when and how to start reducing their purchases of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, which they had promised to continue doing at a pace of $120 billion a month until the economy makes “substantial further progress” towards the Fed’s employment and inflation goals.   Some Fed policymakers feel the taper ought to start soon to make room for the possibility that the Fed will need to start raising interest rates by next year. Daly’s comments suggest she is not in any such rush.    “We are still not near our full employment goals. We are still likely to be missing, going forward, on our inflation target, our price stability goals, despite the temporary runups in measured inflation,” she said. “Those are things I’m really rigorously sticking to.”  Nick Note: I would not touch this rally with a ten foot dick. In popular Fed folklore their is a saying.. Never bet against the Fed. I have another one that has made million over and over again. You can count on the Doctoral mathematicians  the Fed relies on will ALWAYS fuck thing up.  A house is no fire with the flames and smoke filling the house and shouting out the windows. And the Fed governor sits by his computer waiting for the oxygen sensors and thermal imaging algorithms to confirm its a fire and its time to leaves the burning building……. And that is exactly what the Fed is doing with the runaway stock market and housing market and now the building inflation fire storm….. Its some crazy shit. They will sooner rather then later panic and slam on the breaks and all hell will break lose…. Think 2008 financial panic and crash…..

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US economy growing at fastest rate since 1984 – Biden

United States President Joe Biden claimed on Friday that the country’s economy is recording the fastest growth since 1984. Delivering remarks at the White House on the better-than-expected June jobs report, he noted that the “historic progress” the economy is going through should be attributed to his administration’s American Rescue Plan. His government has added 3 million jobs since taking office, the most in the first five months of any administration in the history of the US, according to Biden .Nick Note: You got to ask yourself what happened starting in 1984. Why wage inflation got out of control and the Fed panicked and slammed on the breaks. And double digit interest rates became the order of the day. Their is a difference between now and then. This time The Fed and politicians have vastly over stimulated the economy. If they do not take their foot off the gas and soon it will get real ugly and fast.…

 

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Fed’s Harker supports start to tapering in 2021

June 2 (Reuters) – As the U.S. economy continues to recover from the coronavirus crisis and the labor market rebounds, it may be time for Federal Reserve policymakers to start thinking about the best way to slow the pace of its asset purchases, Philadelphia Fed Bank President Patrick Harker said on Wednesday. “We’re planning to keep the federal funds rate low for long,” Harker said during remarks prepared for a virtual event. “But it may be time to at least think about thinking about tapering our $120 billion in monthly Treasury bond and mortgage-backed securities purchases.” Harker said the Fed would not move suddenly when it begins to reduce the pace of the purchases, which were ramped up last year in an effort to stabilize markets and support the economy after it was upended by the pandemic. “We will remove accommodation carefully and methodically as the economy continues to strengthen,” he said. “Our goal here is to be boring.” Fed officials agreed at their last meeting to keep purchasing bonds at the current pace until there is substantial further progress toward the central bank’s goals for inflation and maximum employment. Several policymakers acknowledged recently that they are closer to discussing when to reduce some of those purchases. The Fed’s next policy-setting meeting takes place on June 15 and 16. Harker said he expects the U.S. economy to grow by 7% this year and at a slower pace of about 3% in 2022. The policymaker said he expects job creation to pick up over the next several months and that the labor market could return to pre-pandemic trends by next summer. The Fed has said it doesn’t plan to lift rates until the economy is back to full employment and inflation is set to reach its 2% target. Nick Note: This market will end badly. We are now driving beyond the range of our headlights.  A 20% crash is coming………..

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Fed’s Bullard warns high inflation can extend into 2022

https://youtu.be/WlO8AjPZtO4

A recent burst of inflation could prove more long-lasting than expected as the surging U.S. economy faces widespread bottlenecks that have severely disrupted the global supply chain, a Federal Reserve official said on Thursday.

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Inflation may be even stronger in coming months than Federal Reserve policymakers currently expect as the U.S. recovery likely gains steam in the fall and a global recovery follows, St. Louis Federal Reserve president James Bullard said on Thursday.

That could push the level of prices beyond what is needed to account for recent years of inflation below the Fed’s 2% target, and presented a “new risk” that Fed officials will have to consider in coming months.

“Inflation may surprise still further to the upside as the reopening process continues, beyond the level necessary to simply make up for past misses to the low side,” Bullard said in a presentation prepared for delivery to the Clayton Chamber of Commerce near St. Louis. Bullard earlier this week said he was among the Fed policymakers who expect interest rates will need to increase next year. Faster than expected inflation this year and on into 2022 will, he said, meet the Fed’s intent to let the pace of price increases exceed the formal 2% target for a time to offset years in which inflation has been too low. His comments Thursday suggest concerns of an even larger inflation shock.There has already, he said, been a “substantial” surprise in terms of stronger than anticipated economic growth and inflation. As schools reopen in the U.S. in the fall and more countries reopen their economies, “the risk is tangible” inflation could move higher than projected. “Policymakers will have to take this new risk into account in the months and quarters ahead,” he said. Nick Note: This could end this rally in the next 6 months like a bullet to the brain. Of course we got to start operations ahead of time.

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US shares fall premarket, Dow down over 100 pts ADP: US private payrolls rise by 692,000 in June

Major stock indexes in the United States traded lower premarket on Wednesday with the focus on today’s batch of economic data on housing, unemployment, and oil.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.29% at 4:35 am ET, while the S&P 500 slid 0.12%. The Nasdaq 100 hovered just below the flatline at the same time. The euro was flat against the dollar at 4:25 am ET, selling for 1.18890.

ADP: US private payrolls rise by 692,000 in June

The number of jobs in the United States private sector rose by 692,000 in June compared to the previous month, exceeding analyst expectations, the ADP National Employment Report showed on Wednesday. The largest number of new jobs were added in the leisure and hospitality sector with 332,000 people hired. Commenting on the data, ADP chief economist Nela Richardson said that “service providers, the hardest hit sector, continue to do the heavy lifting, with leisure and hospitality posting the strongest gain as businesses begin to reopen to full capacity across the country.”

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Starlink internet may have 500K users next year

The Starlink satellite internet service may have the capability to provide users in far-flung regions around the world with high-speed connections before the year ends. SpaceX has deployed 1,800 or so satellites for the Starlink constellation so far. While that number’s just a fraction of the 12,000 satellites regulators already approved for the constellation, it’s enough to enable worldwide coverage. According to Reuters, SpaceX president Gwynne Shotwell has revealed at a web conference that the service will be able to offer continuous global coverage once all 1,800 satellites reach their operational orbit. The aerospace corporation expects that to happen as soon as September this year. That doesn’t mean the company can automatically offer everyone around the world access to broadband-speed internet services, though. As Shotwell explained during the event, SpaceX will first have to secure regulatory approval to provide telecommunications services in every country where it wants to offer Starlink’s internet. At the moment, Starlink is available as a beta service in only a handful of countries, including the US, the UK and Canada. CNBC discovered earlier this year, though, that the company has already registered subsidiaries in Austria, Australia, Argentina, Brazil, France, Chile, Colombia, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Mexico, the Netherlands, New Zealand, the Philippines, South Africa and Spain. As of February this year, SpaceX reported in an FCC filing that the service already has over 10,000 users as part of its initial public beta test rollout. The company then opened its beta testing program to more people and gave everyone interested the option to pay a $99 deposit with the promise of providing them coverage sometime this year or the next. There was so much interest in the service that SpaceX revealed in May that it received over 500,000 Starlink orders. Shotwell didn’t expound on the company’s plans for the service after September, but we’ll likely see Starlink expand its beta program to welcome new users in those aforementioned countries.  Nick Note: Having satellite internet for over 25 years on boats, motor homes and houses i can tell you starlink is a breakthrough. Its solves the problems with latency, bandwidth and all important connection speed. Its a must have system

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Oil slips as Delta strain fears trump demand hopes

Oil prices fell on Tuesday as outbreaks of the highly contagious COVID-19 variant Delta and the re-emergence of travel restrictions raised fears over demand ahead of Thursday’s OPEC+ meeting. International benchmark Brent crude was trading at $74 per barrel at 06.55 GMT, a 0.19% decrease after closing Monday at $74.14 a barrel. American benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) traded at $72.86 a barrel at the same time, a 0.07% drop after ending the previous session at $72.91 per barrel. Uncertainties on whether restrictions due to the coronavirus variant will be re-imposed in Europe and many Asian countries are weighing on prices. “The forecast for oil demand recovery over the summer may be a bit overestimated and traders are facing a reality check this week as the Delta variant reached Europe, and as infections surge in Southeast Asia and Australia to bring back lockdowns,” said Rystad Energy’s Oil Markets Analyst Louise Dickson. Investors also await US crude oil inventory data to be announced by the country’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday. Another key signal anticipated is the outcome of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other affiliated producers, known as OPEC+, at Thursday’s meeting, and whether it will reflect investor demand fears in their production quota decision. “The market consensus is that OPEC+ will likely raise production by about 500,000 bpd [barrels per day] for August, which would still be a net positive for oil prices as it doesn’t fully satiate the swiftly growing demand profile over summer, depending on the Delta variant developments, of course,” Dickson said. The UK saw its highest daily number of coronavirus cases since the end of January this year. In Russia, 21,650 coronavirus cases were recorded over the past day, raising the overall count to more than 5.47 million with active cases reaching 369,708 – the highest figure since Jan. 20. Bangladesh recorded a new spike in COVID-19 infections with 8,364 cases, raising fears of a serious crisis in hospital beds if the surge continues. Nick Note: Pay attention here! You are not being told the truth! By the way I expect to see the stock market after the celebration to fall right back down again!

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North Korean leader Kim ’emaciated’, citizens heartbroken: state TV

North Korean state television has aired a citizen’s comment about Kim Jong Un’s “emaciated” condition, a highly unusual broadcast in a country where public discussion of the leader’s health and personal life has always been off-limits.  Analysts say the remarks showed authorities were seeking to use the change to Kim’s weight to reinforce loyalty to the regime in desparate times.  The impoverished, nuclear-armed country is more isolated than ever behind its self-imposed coronavirus barricade, and this month admitted it was tackling a food crisis, sounding the alarm in a nation with a moribund agricultural sector that has long struggled to feed itself.  At the same time Kim’s health has long been closely watched internationally as his sudden death would raise questions over succession and stability.  Known as a heavy smoker, the leader has long been obese, with his weight appearing to increase steadily in recent years. But he looked noticeably less overweight in recent media images published by Pyongyang’s official KCNA news agency and on state television. Kim’s personal life is normally taboo for North Korea’s state media — Pyongyang has never confirmed how many children he has — but KCTV last week aired a clip of an unnamed resident of the capital claiming everyone in the country was “heartbroken” by his “emaciated” condition. “Seeing our respected general secretary looking emaciated breaks our people’s hearts the most,” he said.  “Everyone is talking about how their tears welled up immediately.” Analysts say Pyongyang is using Kim’s appearance as a way to glorify him by portraying him as a “devoted, hardworking” leader as the country struggles to tackle its food crisis and other challenges. It shut its borders in January last year to protect itself against the pandemic, and as a result trade with Beijing — its economic lifeline — has slowed to a trickle while all international aid workers have left the country. “The message Pyongyang is sending is that Kim is a leader who works very hard for his people even to a degree he skips meals and loses weight,” defector-turned-researcher Ahn Chan-il told AFP.  Global speculation about Kim’s health flared last year after he missed the commemoration of the birthday of his late grandfather, and was absent from public view for about 20 days. Kim’s father Kim Jong-Il and grandfather Kim Il-Sung were also obese and heavy smokers. Both died of heart attacks.  In 2016, South Korea’s spy agency reported Kim had bulked up to 130 kilogrammes, having piled on around 40 kilos (90 pounds) since taking power in 2011, “bingeing on food and drink”.  Last year it estimated he had put on another 10 kilogrammes, taking him to around 140 kilogrammes. But Yang Moo-jin, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies, pointed out it was unlikely his recent weight loss was a symptom of acute ill health, as he had attended several public events this month.  “No one can really know why he lost weight,” he told AFP. “What’s clear — from the KCTV footage — is the regime wants the world to think that its people love care for their leader, to a point where they’d cry over his thinner appearance.”

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Over a dozen vaccinated doctors dead as Indonesia’s virus cases surge

Over a dozen fully vaccinated doctors have died of Covid-19 in Indonesia, a medical association said Friday, as the Southeast Asian country battles a rash of severe cases in inoculated medical workers and highly infectious new virus strains. Infections have surged in the nation of 270 million people in the past week, passing two million cases on Monday as hospital occupancy rates soared to over 75 percent in Jakarta and other hard-hit areas. Nearly 1,000 Indonesian health workers have died from the virus since the pandemic started, with the country’s medical association confirming Friday that 401 doctors were among the victims — 14 of whom were fully vaccinated. “We are still updating the data and confirming whether the other cases had been vaccinated or not,” the association’s Covid-19 mitigation head Mohammad Adib Khumaidi told journalists. The rise of severe cases in inoculated medical workers has raised questions about the China-produced Sinovac jab, which Indonesia is heavily relying on to vaccinate more than 180 million people by early next year. This month, more than 300 vaccinated doctors and health care workers in Central Java were found to have been infected with Covid-19, with about a dozen hospitalised. The country is also grappling with new virus strains, including the highly infectious Delta variant first identified in India. Clinical symptoms suggest that strain is responsible for a surge in cases in West Java, the medical association’s spokesperson for the province, Eka Mulyana, said. “In West Java, bed occupancy rates have exceeded 90 percent. Some hospitals’ rates are even more than 100 percent,” he told reporters. “At this rate, our health system is close to collapse.” Dozens of communities in Central Java’s Kudus regency were put under lockdown after the Delta variant was detected in local testing samples, causing a sudden spike in virus cases. The surge has been partly blamed on millions travelling from that region across the Muslim-majority nation at the end of Ramadan last month, despite an official ban on the annual migration. The Indonesian medical association’s Kudus representative, Ahmad Ipul Syaifuddin, has said the mass movement of people had made it next to impossible to determine where the surge began. “We have no clue on how to trace and find the first spreader of the Delta cases because the sampling test result came out around three weeks after the mass exodus,” he said. “My sample was among the tested sampling for the Delta variant. I have already recovered and (have) tested negative now, but I still have a cough.”  Nick Note: The delta mutation is far far more infectious as a vapor. Meaning the toilet paper 3M ( made them billions) mask is useless. It a P3 ULPA ugly mask time again.  We are in stock… Staff wanted to junk them because they though the Plague was over… that is why they are staff!!!