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Dow closes above 30,000 for the first time in history

The Dow Jones Industrial Average hit a record high of 30,000 on Tuesday, a symbolically significant benchmark in a year that has been whipsawed by the economic fallout of the coronavirus pandemic and a bruising election cycle.

The Dow rose by over 450 points to close the day at 30,045, a record high for the blue-chip index. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite both climbed by around 1.5 percent.

Wall Street’s rally came a day after the Trump administration agreed to start the transition process to President-elect Joe Biden, giving him access to millions of dollars in federal funds and other resources to begin his transition to power.

The transition process had been stalled for weeks as President Donald Trump’s team waged a sputtering legal battle across the country to contest the results, leaving Biden out of the loop on the Covid-19 vaccine and other key issues.

Trump, who is facing mounting pressure to publicly concede, cheered the stock market rally Tuesday, telling reporters in the White House briefing room he wanted to “congratulate the people of our country because there are no people like you,” and called the Dow’s milestone a “sacred number.” Markets hit record highs this month after Moderna and Pfizer both announced promising vaccine candidates in the fight against Covid-19. Wall Street was also optimistic after former Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen emerged as President-elect Joe Biden’s likely pick for treasury secretary. While Yellen faces a huge challenge to lead the country out of the pandemic amid millions of lost jobs and record debt levels, markets soared under her tenure at the Fed and she has decades of macroeconomic experience. During her four-year tenure at the Fed, Yellen supported the economic recovery through accommodative monetary policy and support for low interest rates.

In July, Yellen urged lawmakers to renew the emergency benefits created in the early days of the pandemic, telling members of the House Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Crisis that it would be “a catastrophe” not to extend the $600 in additional weekly unemployment insurance for millions of out-of-work Americans. The additional benefits are a lifeline for those who are out of work, Yellen said, adding that, on a broader spectrum, “We need the spending that those unemployed workers can do.”

This market benchmark has been a long time coming. The Dow came within a few percentage points of hitting 30,000 back in January, a window of opportunity that seemed to slam shut when the Covid-19 pandemic led to widespread shutdowns, job losses and plunging gross domestic product. But aggressive rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and tech sector optimism had buoyed stocks, and the central bank’s interventions were accompanied by a run-up in the valuations of the big tech companies that increasingly dominate the benchmark indices, many of which benefitted from the abrupt and dramatic changes in consumer behavior triggered by the pandemic. “Anytime you have an accommodating Fed, low interest rates, more of an accommodative environment, the prospects are good for stocks,” said David Frisch, president of Frisch Financial Group. “Because of what’s transpired since March, a lot more of us are working from home, we’re doing things virtually, we’re streaming content online and ordering things to come to our homes,” said Sameer Samana, senior global market strategist at Wells Fargo Investment Institute. In particular, Apple, Microsoft and Salesforce have helped propel the Dow higher. There also is an emotional dynamic that comes into play when markets near symbolic benchmarks. “There tends to be a bit of psychology and a market sentiment attached to some of those big levels,” said Yung-Yu Ma, chief investment strategist at BMO Wealth Management.

Analysts say investors should be wary of over-exuberance, given that it still could be months before a vaccine is readily available for most Americans.

“Even with the promise of an effective Covid-19 vaccine, we now have to take a sober look at the damage this virus has caused the economy,” said James McDonald, CEO of Hercules Investments, adding that a “return to normalcy” wouldn’t come right away. “An overnight recovery is impossible, let alone overnight growth that exceeds pre-Covid-19 level. Nick Note: For the record this is the biggest retail ma and pa Holkem retail rallie I have ever seen, It will end in treas…….

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Trump: GSA does not determine next president

https://youtu.be/Je1jcG9dElE

President Donald Trump on Tuesday defended his decision to allow the General Services Administration (GSA) to coordinate with former Vice President Joe Biden for a transition of power. “Remember, the GSA has been terrific, and Emily Murphy has done a great job, but the GSA does not determine who the next President of the United States will be,” Trump wrote on Twitter.

Trump said Monday evening he would allow GSA Administrator Emily Murphy to begin the initial steps for a transition of power to Biden after she received a series of threats from angry Biden supporters. “She has been harassed, threatened, and abused — and I do not want to see this happen to her, her family, or employees of GSA,” Trump said. The GSA released $6,300,000 in funds for Biden’s team to begin the transition of power. Establishment media and political figures celebrated the news of Trump’s decision as a sign he was moving to concede the 2020 election despite an ongoing legal challenge. The Biden team also celebrated the news in a statement, asserting that the GSA administrator had “ascertained” that they were “the apparent winners of the election.” “Today’s decision is a needed step to begin tackling the challenges facing our nation, including getting the pandemic under control and our economy back on track,” Biden-Harris Transition Executive Director Yohannes Abraham said in a statement. Nick Note: Trump chances of a Hail Mary working get less and less by the day. Everyone knows that the surprise is if he gets to stay. In spite of the spin the markets priced in a long time ago a Biden administration…..

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Thanksgiving could be make-or-break in US virus response

In Pennsylvania, if you’re having friends over to socialize, you’re supposed to wear a mask — and so are your friends. That’s the rule, but Barb Chestnut has no intention of following it.

“No one is going to tell me what I can or not do in my own home” said Chestnut, 60, of Shippensburg. “They do not pay my bills and they are not going to tell me what to do.”

As governors and mayors grapple with an out-of-control pandemic, they are ratcheting up mask mandates and imposing restrictions on small indoor gatherings, which have been blamed for accelerating the spread of the coronavirus. But while such measures carry the weight of law, they are, in practical terms, unenforceable, and officials are banking on voluntary compliance instead. While many are undoubtedly heeding public health advice — downsizing Thanksgiving plans, avoiding get-togethers, wearing masks when they’re around people who don’t live with them — it’s inevitable that a segment of the population will blow off new state and local restrictions and socialize anyway. Experts say that could put greater stress on overburdened hospitals and lead to an even bigger spike in sickness and death over the holidays

“When this started in early March, we weren’t staring at Thanksgiving and Christmas, and we didn’t have the disease reservoir that we have. And that, to me, is the biggest concern in the next few weeks,” said Dr. David Rubin, the director of PolicyLab at Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia. He called the risk of a Thanksgiving spike “extremely high.”

“I think you’re seeing a lot of resistance here,” Rubin said. “I can’t speculate on what people are going to do, but I can say that to the degree that there isn’t a collective buy-in here, it sort of blunts the impact of the measures themselves.” The nation is averaging 172,000 new virus cases per day, nearly doubling since the end of October, according to Johns Hopkins University. Hospitalizations, deaths and the testing positivity rate are also up sharply as the nation approaches Thanksgiving. In response, elected officials are imposing restrictions that, with some exceptions, fall short of the broad-based stay-at-home orders and business shutdowns seen in the spring. Utah and Vermont have banned all social gatherings. So have local governments in Philadelphia and Dane County, Wisconsin. In Kentucky, no more than eight people from two households are permitted to get together; in Oregon, the gathering limit is six. California has imposed an overnight curfew. More states are requiring masks, including those with GOP governors who have long resisted them. The nation’s top health officials are pleading with Americans to avoid Thanksgiving travel. AAA projects Thanksgiving travel will fall by at least 10%, which would be the steepest one-year plunge since the Great Recession in 2008. But that still means tens of millions of people on the road. On social media, people defiantly talk about their Thanksgiving plans, arguing that nothing will stop them from seeing friends and family.

More than 1 million people thronged U.S. airports on Sunday, according to the Transportation Security Administration — the highest number since the beginning of the pandemic.

Dr. Debra Bogen, the health director for Allegheny County, Pennsylvania, which includes Pittsburgh, said that too many have been ignoring public health guidance and that the result has been unchecked spread of the virus. “For the past few weeks, I’ve asked people to follow the rules, curtail gatherings and parties, stay home except for essentials, and wear masks. I’m done asking,” Bogen said at a news conference, her frustration palpable. She announced a stay-at-home advisory that she said would turn into an order if people didn’t comply.

Some people are underestimating the risk to themselves and their friends and families, said Baruch Fischhoff, a Carnegie Mellon University psychologist who has written about COVID-19 risk analysis and communications. Others doubt what health officials are telling them about the virus. And still others are simply irresponsible.

Fischhoff said the lack of a cohesive national pandemic strategy; patchwork and seemingly arbitrary restrictions at the state and local level; and ineffective, politicized and contradictory public health messaging have sown confusion and mistrust. “It has been a colossal, tragic failure of leadership from the very beginning that we didn’t find the common ground in which we were working to protect the weakest among us. And once you’ve lost that coordination, you’re scrambling to get it back and that’s the tragic mess that we’re in now,” he said. In upstate New York, some sheriffs say they have no intention of enforcing Democratic Gov. Andrew Cuomo’s recent mandate barring private gatherings of more than 10 people. Nick Note: If people have a thanksgiving for christmass they will be burring the vulnerable. DO NOT DO IT…… FUCK  thanksgiving!

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Global stocks are vulnerable to $300 billion of outflows by year-end, JPMorgan says

 

  • According to JPMorgan, there’s a potential $300 billion headwind that could weigh on global stocks into year-end: portfolio rebalancing.
  • The fourth quarter rally in stocks would likely trigger the balanced mutual fund universe to sell stocks and buy bonds as they rebalance to their 60/40 stock and bond target allocation.
  • $160 billion in stocks are likely subject to being sold by the end of this year, and an additional $150 billion could be sold if the stock market continues to rally into December, JPMorgan said.
  • Visit Business Insider’s homepage for more stories.

Global stocks face a potential $300 billion headwind heading into year-end: portfolio rebalancing. That’s according to a Friday note from JPMorgan, which argued that the strong rally in stocks in the fourth quarter will trigger $160 billion in equity outflows as balanced mutual funds sell stocks and buy bonds to get back to their target allocation of 60% stocks and 40% bonds. And if stocks continue to rally into December, that would likely trigger an additional $150 billion in stock selling by pension funds that tend to rebalance on a quarterly basis, according to the note. JPMorgan based its calculations off of quarter and month-to-date performance, and assumed that the balanced mutual funds were fully rebalanced at its target allocation at the end of October, rather than being underweight stocks. The targeted portfolios included in JPMorgan’s analysis include balanced mutual funds and US defined benefit pension plans. Balanced mutual funds alone represent a $7 trillion universe, according to JPMorgan. “There would be some vulnerability in equity markets in the near term from balanced mutual funds having to sell equities to revert to their 60/40 equity/bond target allocation, either by the end of November or by the end of December at the latest,” JPMorgan said.

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Health officials make their final pleas for holiday caution as coronavirus cases spike

WASHINGTON – With nationwide coronavirus hospitalizations topping 80,000 and case counts on the cusp of 200,000 a day, officials and experts are giving their final pleas for caution in the days before Thanksgiving.

Average cases reported each day in the United States have jumped nearly 15% in a week, according to data tracked by The Washington Post. Deaths are also on the rise, with some communities overwhelmed by the bodies

– in El Paso County, Texas, the National Guard was called in to help the morgues. With the holiday travel rush underway, public health leaders warned this weekend that “herd immunity” from promising vaccines remains months away and that every American’s choices this week will shape the country’s virus trajectory. In an interview on CBS News’s “Face the Nation,” Anthony Fauci, the nation’s top infectious-disease expert, said he understands that many Americans are experiencing “covid fatigue” after months of pandemic restrictions, now tightening again in many parts of the country. But traveling over the holidays and ignoring public health guidelines are “going to get us into even more trouble than we’re in right now,” he said. Moncef Slaoui, chief scientific adviser to the White House’s Operation Warp Speed vaccine effort, said on CNN’s “State of the Union” that about 70% of the American population will need to be vaccinated for true herd immunity to occur. That will probably happen around May, he said, based on health officials’ current plans. “Most people need to be immunized before we can go back to a normal life,” he said. Some the front lines of the country’s pandemic response are not sure that months of messaging have gotten through to the public, however.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention advised Americans against Thanksgiving travel and get-togethers just days ago, when many people’s plans were already set.

“Absolutely not,” said Utah physician Sean Callahan when asked whether the urgency of the country’s situation has sunk in. He said soaring cases are already straining the quality of care at the University of Utah, where he works in one of the hospital’s intensive-care units and is an assistant professor of pulmonary and critical care. His own message for people is about more than Thanksgiving plans. Callahan said he is concerned that nurses and physicians are already being asked to treat patients outside their usual areas of expertise. He thinks the problem will worsen. “I’m worried that we are going to be asking a lot of providers to do things that are probably outside of their comfort zone, and care is going to suffer, because we’re stretched and doing things we should not be doing,” he said in an interview Sunday. The pressure on health-care resources has spurred leaders nationwide into action. Utah Gov. Gary Herbert, a Republican, said this month that he was mandating face coverings statewide in public settings and for people within six feet of anyone outside their household. (The mandate does not apply to houses of worship.) The reversal, following months of reluctance, came after hospitals warned that they may have to ration care. Nevada Gov. Sisolak, a Democrat, on Sunday announced a “statewide pause” of at least three weeks starting Tuesday, with stricter capacity limits for many businesses, a decreased limit on gatherings and a more extensive mask mandate. Sisolak said people must wear face coverings even in private settings when they are around people outside their household. Ten percent of Nevada’s coronavirus cases were reported in the past week, he said, warning that hospitals could become overwhelmed. “You saw it in New York, you can see it in El Paso right now,” he said. “This can’t become our reality.” Los Angeles County, home to 10 million people, also announced new restrictions Sunday, ordering restaurants and bars to shift to takeout, drive-through and delivery only. As the alarms about hospital capacity mount, holiday travel and gatherings threaten to make health-care workers’ jobs even harder. Now holiday travel and gatherings threaten to make health-care workers’ tasks even harder. “If you look at the map of spread across the country, you can see the risk; it’s very visible. And moving through airports or travel hubs, I think that will increase people’s risk,” Tom Inglesby, director of the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, said on “Fox News Sunday.” “Even if they’re driving from point to point, unfortunately, we don’t know if we’re infected when we walk into a gathering.” He referred to recent data released by the CDC that said most infections are spread by people with no symptoms. “The message for everyone is: You can’t assume you don’t have the virus, and you can’t assume the people whose homes you’re about to enter don’t have the virus at this point in our pandemic,” Inglesby said. For those who plan to travel and be with others for the holiday, he recommended keeping gatherings small, spending as much time outdoors as possible, keeping mealtimes short, wearing masks indoors and removing masks only while eating.

More than 1 million people went through Transportation Security Administration checkpoints in airports nationwide on Friday, according to data released daily by the agency, and more than 980,000 travelers were screened Saturday. The number of travelers screened Friday was the second-highest single-day rush since March 16. In an interview aired on NBC News’s “Meet the Press,” Fauci was full of optimism about a vaccine but emphasized the virus’s continued threat.

“Traditionally and historically, highly efficacious and effective vaccines have crushed epidemics like smallpox and polio and measles,” Fauci told NBC’s “Meet the Press.” “We can do that with the vaccines that are going to be coming online. So we should make them be . . . an incentive to have us double down even more with public health measures until we get the full component of the help that’s on its way.” Pfizer filed for emergency authorization for its vaccine Friday. The FDA has announced that a committee of external advisers will meet Dec. 10 to make recommendations to the agency on whether to authorize Pfizer’s vaccine. Slaoui said the advisers will meet Dec. 17 to review the shot developed by Moderna, which has not filed for clearance for its vaccine. Officials’ calls to heed public health guidelines came as two more members of Congress, Rep. Joe Courtney, D-Conn., and Rep. Bryan Steil, R-Wis., said Sunday that they tested positive for the coronavirus after experiencing mild symptoms and are isolating. Nick Note: You are being sold a bill of goods. Do you know how long it took to wipe out Polio: The Salk vaccine was developed in the 1950’s  it was not until  1961 that the infectious transmittal of the disease was stopped. AND Small Pocks?  The disease peeked in the 1950’s and was widespread until l 1966.  It took 16 years to get it under controls. Now they want you to believe they will get the far more contagious coronavirus under control in 5 months using vaccines that have not been approved never mind mass vaccinations have not even begun……. YET… YEAH RIGHT!!

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AstraZeneca-Oxford vaccine effective 70% on average

 Oxford-AstraZeneca announce their vaccine is up to 90% effective and can be stored in a normal fridge
  • Trials found the jab to be 90% effective when given as a half-dose then a full dose one month later
  • This dropped to 62% when someone was given a full dose then another full dose a month later
  • Oxford University and pharma company AstraZeneca say no serious virus cases in 20,000-person trial 
  • Vaccine costs between £2 and £4 per dose and can stored in normal UK fridge without specialist equipment 
  • Jabs being developed by Pfizer and Moderna in the US have produced 95% protection but more expensive 

(CNN)) Drugmaker AstraZeneca announced on Monday that its experimental coronavirus vaccine has shown an average efficacy of 70% in its large scale trials — the latest of several vaccine trials worldwide to post their results this month. The vaccine, developed with the University of Oxford, showed 90% efficacy in one dosing regimen — when the vaccine was given as a half dose, followed by a full dose at least a month later — and 62% efficacy in a second regimen — when two full doses were given at least a month apart.

That averages to a 70% efficacy, AstraZeneca said.
The company said in a news release that its vaccine was “highly effective in preventing COVID-19, the primary endpoint, and no hospitalisations or severe cases of the disease were reported in participants receiving the vaccine.”
The interim analysis included a total of 131 Covid-19 cases, according to the release.
Monday’s news comes after Moderna announced earlier this month that its vaccine was 94.5% effective against coronavirus, and Pfizer announced its vaccine was 95% effective.
Here is the story as reported in the UK:

The study, involving more than 24,000 volunteers, found there were no serious cases of Covid-19 among those who were given the vaccine, including no hospitalisations. Data also suggests the vaccine might stop the virus transmitting even among people who never get symptoms of the illness. Professor Andrew Pollard, director of the Oxford Vaccine Group, said his team’s jab would play a key ‘part  in getting the world back to normal’. Health Secretary Matt Hancock hailed the results this morning, saying millions of doses will be ready to go by the end of December.  He told the BBC: ‘We hope to be able to start vaccinating next month. The bulk of the vaccine rollout programme will be in January, February, March. And we hope that sometime after Easter things will be able to start to get back to normal.’

Oxford’s jab is viewed as Britain’s best chance of mass-inoculation of the population by the end of spring because Boris Johnson has ordered 100million doses, enough to inoculate 50million people. The UK already has 3million ready to go, which could see 1.5million people vaccinated before the end of 2020. 

The Prime Minister said this morning: ‘Incredibly exciting news the Oxford vaccine has proved so effective in trials. There are still further safety checks ahead, but these are fantastic results.’  Results from Oxford’s trials will be sent to the British drug regulator, the MHRA, so it can assess the vaccine’s safety, effectiveness, and that it is manufactured to high standard. The MHRA has been doing a ‘rolling review’ of the vaccine and could, as a result, complete the approval process within a matter of days of receiving the data. The London stock market edged up today following news of the breakthrough vaccine and as the City awaits Mr Johnson’s  plans for a strengthened three-tier system of coronavirus restrictions to replace the national lockdown in England.

Health Secretary Matt Hancock (left) hailed the results this morning, saying millions of doses will be ready to go by the end of December. Professor Andrew Pollard, director of the Oxford Vaccine Group, said his team’s jab would play a key ‘part in getting the world back to normal’ A coronavirus vaccine developed by AstraZeneca and Oxford University can prevent 70.4% of people from getting Covid-19, data shows

Nick Note: To celebrate a vaccine success when their is no vaccine  YET for the masses and will take 2 years to prove is a fools mission. Especially when the Plague has gone wild. Its like celebrating t he end of World War II while London is getting bombed into oblivion. It is not time to come out of the bomb shelters just yet!

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Trumps sifts strategy to hold power, deny Biden

U.S. President-elect Joe Biden, facing unprecedented stonewalling from the Trump White House as he tries to prepare his team to govern, blasted the President on Thursday, calling his failure to concede and his relentless questioning of the election results “irresponsible.” “It sends a horrible message about who we are as a country.” As Trump’s legal challenges make little headway, Reuters has learned there is a change in strategy. Sources say Trump’s team is focused increasingly on persuading Republican legislators to do what voters did not and declare him the winner.

Three people familiar with the effort told Reuters that Trump’s lawyers are seeking to enlist fellow Republicans who control legislatures in Michigan and Pennsylvania – battleground states that went for Biden – to intervene on his behalf with a long-shot maneuver that would see them potentially hand their state’s electoral college votes to Trump.

Trump faces an uphill battle. Officials have said repeatedly there is no evidence of widespread voting irregularities, and Michigan’s Republican House Speaker Lee Chatfield – despite agreeing to meet with Trump at the White House on Friday – has said the state’s 16 electoral votes would go to Biden, who leads Trump by more than 150,000 votes in the state. But none of that stopped the president’s personal attorney Rudy Giuliani from holding a press conference full of conspiracy theories and unsubstantiated allegations, as what appeared to be hair dye dripped down his face.Trump’s former top election security official Chris Krebs – who Trump fired this week after he strongly refuted the president’s claims of election fraud – tweeted that Guiliani’s press conference was “the most dangerous 1 hr and 45 minutes of television in American history. And possibly the craziest.” Legislators in Michigan and Pennsylvania have sought not to become involved with Trump’s team. Several leading Republicans in Michigan privately expressed dismay to Reuters at the extent to which Trump has tried to game the election results, believing it will irreversibly tarnish the party’s image in the state for years to come. As things stand, Biden has captured 306 electoral votes to Trump’s 232, well ahead of the 270 needed for victory. Were the combined 36 electoral votes in Michigan and Pennsylvania to go to Trump, he would still trail by two electoral votes, meaning his campaign would still need to flip at least one more state to retain the White House. Asked Thursday if he was going to challenge Trump’s maneuvers with lawsuits of his own, Biden said he wouldn’t rule anything out, but that he was confident he would be sworn in on January 20th.

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Republicans ask Michigan election board to delay certification for two weeks, audit Detroit votes

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The Republican National Committee and the Michigan Republican Party wrote to Michigan’s state board of canvassers on Saturday asking it to adjourn for 14 days to allow for an audit of ballots in the state’s largest county.The letter came as Wayne County, which includes the majority-Black city of Detroit, has become a focus of President Donald Trump’s efforts to overturn the results of the Nov. 3 election in states that were decisive in his defeat by Democrat Joe Biden. Two Republicans on the county’s canvassing board attempted to rescind their votes to certify the county’s results after Trump himself called them. Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson, a Democrat, said the certification could not be reversed. The state board, which includes two Democrats and two Republicans, is due to meet on Monday to certify election results and will have as many as 20 days to do so.

The letter urged a “full, transparent audit” in Wayne county, citing “numerical anomalies and credible reports of procedural irregularities” made by a losing Republican candidate for senate.

The Secretary of State’s office on Friday recommended that the state board certify the results, which showed Biden winning in Michigan by 154,187 votes. It said there were small tabulation and reporting errors but they were “typical human error similar to that which has occurred in past elections” and did not affect the results. Republicans ask Michigan election board to delay certification for two weeks, audit Detroit votes. Nick Note: This is a win for Trump. It is a chink in the Armou to be exploitedr. Despite news media spin Trump is well within his rights to contest the election. I give him a 20% chance. He has a very thin pathway to pull off a electoral college or House of Representatives cue. Its been done before. Remember the press exit poles do not decide US election.  Presidents are not elected by the direct votes of the people. Someone in the background of the Trump election committee is pulling the right strings. I frankly do not give a damn my dear.. I DO  give a damn how this plays out in the market. A market at silly highs that is wearing rose colored bifocals. The virus is out of control. Not only is their no stimulus but rescue funds help by the Fed Reserve has been clawed back by treasury. The virus gone wild  is out of control with the locking downs again. The economy will soon start its next death plunge.   And the great white hope for the markets are the vaccines.  Which will take two years to inject the population and achieve heard immunity if possible. A BIG unknown

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‘Scary’ Winter of Lockdowns Cools Market Elation Over Vaccines

(Bloomberg) — The escalating pandemic is chipping away at the burst of vaccine optimism that propelled global stocks to a record.

Social distancing is being stepped up in the U.S., Europe and Asia, darkening the outlook for the global recovery and underlining the importance of policy support.

Against that backdrop, a public spat between the Trump administration and the Federal Reserve over emergency lending facilities unnerved investors Friday, prompting a slide in U.S. stock futures.

Looking further out into next year, many strategists expect global stocks and Treasury yields to climb as promising vaccine candidates are rolled out — but few anticipate an easy return to normal. “While there is light at the end of the tunnel there is still a long, dark, scary tunnel to get through before we emerge,” said Benjamin Jones, senior multi-asset strategist at State Street Global Markets in London. Signs of division between the Trump administration and the Fed over emergency lending facilities sent S&P 500 futures briefly tumbling Friday, showing how sensitive markets are to stimulus. Further delays in fresh U.S. fiscal relief would increase economic risks, said Tai Hui, chief Asia market strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management. On one measure, the market is currently pricing a 3% implied probability of a U.S. recession within the next year, but some might argue it should be higher.

“More lockdowns look imminent, and it’s not too much of a stretch to imagine that the global economy is likely to dip deeper into recession,” said Eoin Murray, head of investment for international business at Federated Hermes Inc.

The 10-year Treasury yield failed to breach 1% as many expected following positive vaccine news. That’s an indication investors still see the need for low rates for a prolonged period as the pandemic delivers fresh economic blows. “A depressed path for U.S. short-term interest rates will act as an anchor on longer term Treasury yields,” Alpine Macro strategists wrote in a note.

Despite immediate concerns over fresh lockdowns, the prospect of vaccines being rolled out over 2021 continues to underpin a more bullish longer-term narrative.

Citigroup Inc.’s Global Risk Aversion Index, a combination of market indicators across asset classes and geographies, has fallen back into negative territory for the first time since the pandemic roiled markets. Nick Note: the election is still not settled business…. Trump got Mondays Michigan vote certification stopped. And he just might be able to get the Republicans that control most key state houses to nullify the elections… Its complicated but their is a  escape rout from defeat for Trump.. A very small one I admit but possible. The corona virus will kill a million people this winter and force more economic devastating lockdowns. Balance these incredible negatives including a double digit recession against the coming vaccines that will take a year or more to provide mass immunity if they work and provide ling term immunity. And the scale tips to a great big stock market plunge.

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Powell agrees to return unused aid funds to Treasury

The emergency programs will wind down after Mnuchin said they were no longer needed, triggering a rare public statement of disagreement from the central bank. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Friday agreed to return unused coronavirus relief funds to the Treasury Department when its emergency lending programs shut down at the end of the year, as requested by Secretary Steven Mnuchin.

 

 

The emergency programs, which were set to expire Dec. 31 unless extended, will wind down after Mnuchin said Thursday evening that they were no longer needed, triggering a rare public statement from the central bank disagreeing with the move.

The Fed and Treasury have joint responsibility for designing and authorizing the programs, but it’s not clear that the central bank was obligated to comply with Mnuchin’s request to return the unused funds, wired by his department to the central bank. Powell took no legal position on either that question or on Mnuchin’s assertion that the CARES Act did not allow for new loans to be made using funding it authorized after the end of the year, a claim that is disputed by Democrats who have called for the programs to be extended and expanded.. “You have indicated that the limits on your authority do not permit the CARES Act facilities to make new loans or purchase new assets after December 31, 2020, and you have requested that we return Treasury’s excess capital in the CARES Act facilities,” Powell wrote in a letter to Mnuchin. “We will work out arrangements with you for returning the unused portions of the funds allocated to the CARES Act facilities in connection with their year-end termination.”

A new Treasury secretary appointed by Joe Biden when he becomes president could restart the emergency programs, but without the CARES Act funding, the overall lending capacity would be much smaller.