BlackMask Breaking News

Geopolitics-led volatility in the market isn’t good for business, Shell CEO says after drop in second-quarter profit.

A recurring theme of second-quarter earnings is becoming clear: Big Oil’s crude traders don’t love geopolitics-led volatility. On Thursday, Shell Plc Chief Executive Officer Wael Sawan joined a list of industry executives who pointed out that such market turbulence — which has little to do with the realities of day-to-day supply and demand — isn’t easy for traders to deal with. Instead, they dial back risk. That’s an important detail for oil investors given that US President Donald Trump is showing no signs of letting up on his slew of tariffs on trading partners.

It’s also a reminder that a prime booster of European supermajors’ profits — black-box trading — may not always be able to deliver.

“We are much more of a fundamentals-based trader, so we chose to be a bit more risk-off, more of a prudent risk-management approach,” Sawan said today. The oil majors are tight-lipped about how their traders operate, but they handle more barrels than many of the world’s top merchants. When asked in 2020 about his company’s profit from the sector, TotalEnergies SE CEO Patrick Pouyanne replied simply: “Oil trading is a secret.” Sawan previously said his company’s traders haven’t lost money on a quarterly basis during the last decade. However, Shell’s second-quarter earnings — and those of peers — show how the influence of presidential social-media posts, tariff threats and military maneuvers can swing crude markets in ways that are too unpredictable to trade on. Norway’s Equinor ASA lamented the “different type of volatility” that makes it “very hard to trade around.” The Stavanger-based company said its second-quarter profit dipped compared with a year earlier. In today’s market, Big Oil isn’t chasing every price swing. Rather, it’s learning when to sit them out.

NN: As of August 1st after 1 year of trading cash Machine our oil trading pool has made net over a  140% return mark to market including open positions. How is that for passive income purly spelating?

‘Life, Liberty & Levin’ host Mark Levin discusses U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s threat to recognize Palestine as a state if Israel doesn’t agree to a ceasefire and the NY Times’ correction on child malnutrition

United States President Donald Trump argued on Thursday that the “fastest way to end the humanitarian crises [sic] in Gaza is for Hamas to surrender.” In a post on his Truth Social account, the president also called for the militant group to release the hostages. His comments coincided with US Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff’s visit to Israel, where he is expected to meet with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. They are expected to discuss the Gaza ceasefire efforts as well as Iran.

Trump: Canada’s Palestine move makes it hard to get deal

United States President Donald Trump criticized Canada after Prime Minister Mark Carney announced support for Palestinian statehood. “Wow! Canada has just announced that it is backing statehood for Palestine,” Trump posted on Truth Social. “That will make it very hard for us to make a Trade Deal with them. Oh’ Canada!!!” His remarks come just days before an August 1 deadline to strike a trade deal and avoid new US tariffs on Canadian goods.

• President Trump’s shortened deadline for a Russia-Ukraine cease-fire has been met with silence from the Kremlin and an increase in attacks on Ukrainian cities.
• Analysts suggest that Putin is waiting to understand Trump’s next actions, as the US president’s unpredictability makes it difficult for Moscow to plan its response.
• Despite Trump’s threats of tariffs, experts believe Russia is unlikely to change its approach to the conflict, especially given its economic ties with China and India.

Putin’s spokesman Dmitri Peskov gave a terse response on July 29, saying the Kremlin had “taken note” of Trump’s comments without elaborating. He added that he would not comment on another Trump remark that he was “no longer interested” in talks with Putin.

The Kremlin’s taciturn response speaks volumes, according to political analyst Boris Pastukhov.

“Putin is waiting,“To know what to say next, he needs to understand exactly how Trump plans to behave.”

Trump has a track record of shifting deadlines, particularly when it comes to tariffs.

On this occasion, he said he was shortening the timeframe because “when you deal with someone long enough, you know what they’re going to do — or not do.”

By contrast, it’s not only unclear whether Trump will again shift the deadline. It’s also not certain what measures he would impose if he decided to act.

Tariffs on Russian goods would have little impact, since Russia exports so little to the United States anyway. It’s a storm the Kremlin could weather.

Secondary sanctions would significantly raise the stakes – not only in Trump’s dealings with Putin, but also in his relations with countries like China and India, which have been helping finance Russia’s war on Ukraine through the purchasing of Russian oil.

Pastukhov said Putin was now deliberately keeping his cards close to his chest and waiting for Trump to play his.

“Trump isn’t just unpredictable to ordinary people — he’s unpredictable to the Kremlin as well. They don’t know what to expect from him, so they’re keeping their next move in reserve,” he said.

Amid the Kremlin’s silence, Russian media and lesser officials have been repeating phrases of stock defiance.

Komsomolskaya Pravda newspaper said Trump’s approach might be good for dealing with “regional conflicts” but could not be applied to Russia or China.

Likewise, former president Dmitri Medvedev, who is currently deputy head of the country’s Security Council, wrote that “Russia is not Israel or Iran” and warned Trump against “playing the ultimatum game with Russia.”

When Trump said that he was shortening the deadline, he noted that he was “very disappointed” with Putin, words he also used when he announced his original ultimatum.

At the time, analysts also said that they did not expect Putin to change tack as a result of Trump’s threats.

NN: Sure we glad we have been buying oil

United States President Donald Trump said on Monday that he will officially announce a new deadline for Russia “probably tonight or tomorrow,” following his previous statement that the ceasefire deadline would be reduced. “We are going to do secondary sanctions [against Russia] unless we make a deal. We might make a deal,” Trump told reporters after meeting with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer in Scotland earlier today and added that the new deadline will be around 10 to 12 days. “There is no reason to wait, if you know what the answer is going to be, why wait,” the US president remarked.

NN: Trump  is talking 100% duty on Russian oil. And he serious!

Trump: Not so interested in talking to Putin anymore

Stock market bubbles are strange animals indeed.  I’ve always been amazed at how long they can keep building and building sucking people in like a black hole. This present market mania has  created the most overvalued stock market ever. Reminiscence of the  dot.Com bubble wipe. But this time the fad is for artificial intelligence and AI chips and data centers. Valuations are far beyond the potential profits  the technology can deliver. The reality is its a big unknown which companies will survive and thrive and which will wipe out. For over a year I’ve watched AI hysteria drive the entire stock market higher and higher and  valuations hitting 23-24-25 times  earnings. Finally the critical oxygen supply that keeps the fires burning is running out. CASH. Market investors and companies have begged borrowed and stolen all the money they could.

They have achieved market valuations that can never be achieved and never be justified. As you know I waited and watched this bubble building mania for over a year for a sell signal. One of the biggest and best signals I use in analyzing bubbles and evaluating the hysteria in the marketplace is margin debt. This is where people throw caution to the wind and borrow vast amounts of money at Sky High interest rates to buy more and more and more stocks. We have finally achieved that threshold of market Mania stock market fever. This is where stocks soar to the moon DRIVING THE STOCK MARKET TO RECORD HIGHS.  We are preparing to begin operations shorting the NASDAQ 100. Which is the home of these Bubblicious foaming at the mouth stocks. I will be preparing for you our strategy and I look to begin operations in late August and September.  I expect a major market correction sometime in October and a crash in December. Timing these things can be tricky as hell obviosity. The reason why you do it is because there’s nothing more profitable than a bubble stock market crash. In the past we’ve been able to trade thankfully every one of them successfully. And i believe this one will be no different.  So consider this you’re two minute warning!!

PREPARE TO MAKE A FORTUNE

• The reemergence of meme stock mania has professional investors facing a quandary: ride the excitement of retail traders or take it as a warning sign that the markets are due for a pullback.
• Some indicators suggest investors are abandoning restraint and betting on further gains, with margin debt reaching a new record, but signs of fatigue are also creeping in, with the latest meme stock rally losing steam and Bitcoin falling back from its record highs.
• According to Eric Diton, president and managing director of the Wealth Alliance, “I’m longer-term bullish, but I’m just short-term cautious” because of excessive speculation, and Victor Haghani, chief investment officer of Elm Wealth, says “it’s notoriously difficult to predict when” the market will turn.

The reemergence of meme stock mania last week has professional investors facing a quandary: ride the excitement of retail traders or take it as the latest warning sign that the frothy markets are due for a pullback. The speculative stocks caught up in the frenzy this week, like Opendoor Technologies Inc. and Kohl’s Corp., gave up some of their gains as the week went on, but most are still trading at their highest levels in months. The broader S&P 500 Index and Nasdaq 100 Index are doing even better, sitting at all-time highs after charging back from the early April selloff set off by President Donald Trump’s tariff announcements.

There are indicators that investors are abandoning restraint and betting on further gains. The amount that investors are borrowing to buy stocks on the New York Stock Exchange, known as margin debt, has exceeded the tech-bubble highs to reach a new record, according to data from the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority.

But signs of fatigue are creeping in. The latest meme stock rally seemed to lose steam after just a few days, and Bitcoin, one of the most visible symbols of the speculative fever, has recently fallen back from its record highs. Some Wall Street trading desks have been urging clients to scoop up discounted protection against possible losses. The current run has stretched valuations, with the S&P 500 trading at nearly 23 times forward earnings, well above the ten-year average of around 18, signaling that stocks have gotten significantly more expensive.

NN: This bubble is about to burst