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IEA Weekly Petroleum Report

 Data for the week ending June 6, 2025

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve)decreased by 3.6 million barrels from the previous week. At 432.4 million barrels, U.S. crude oilinventories are about 8% below the five year average for this time of year. U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 17.2 million barrels per day during the week ending June 6, 2025, which was 228 thousand barrels per day more than the previous week’s average. Refineries operated at 94.3% of their operable capacity last week. Gasoline production increased last week, averaging 9.7 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel production decreased by 97 thousand barrels per day last week, averaging 4.9 million barrels per day. U.S. crude oil imports averaged 6.2 million barrels per day last week, decreased by 170 thousand barrels per day from the previous week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged about 6.2 million barrels per day, 13.3% less than the same four-week period last year. Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 914 thousand barrels per day, and distillate fuel imports averaged 104 thousandbarrels per day. Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 1.5 million barrels from last week and are about 2% below the five year average for this time of year. Both finished gasoline inventories and blending components inventories increased last week. Distillate fuel inventories increased by 1.2 million barrels last week and are about 17% below the five year average for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories increased by 4 million barrels from last week and are 6% above the five year average for this time of year. Total commercial petroleum inventories increased by 6.2 million barrels last week. Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 19.9 million barrels a day, up by 0.5% from the same period last year. Over the past four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied
averaged 8.9 million barrels a day, down by 2.5% from the same period last year. Distillate fuel product supplied averaged 3.5 million barrels a day over the past four weeks, down by 5.9% from the same period last year. Jet fuel product supplied was up 1.3% compared with the same

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Trump ‘less confident’ about Iran nuclear deal

United States President Donald Trump said during a New York Post podcast interview on Tuesday that he is “less confident” about reaching a nuclear deal with Iran. “They seem to be delaying it … I think it’s a shame,” the president clarified, adding he is now less confident about a potential deal with Tehran “than he would’ve been a couple of months ago.” Trump went on to argue that “something happened” to the Iranian side, although he did not specify what. “I have instincts about things … maybe they don’t wanna make a deal, and maybe they do, there’s nothing final.” Furthermore, the president declared Iran “won’t have a nuclear weapon” regardless of whether they make a deal or not. “It would be nicer to do [it] without warfare,” he concluded.

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Musk regrets some things he said about Trump

Billionaire Elon Musk said on his social network X that he regrets “some things he said” about United States President Donald Trump last week, adding that they “went too far.” Musk and Trump started a public feud after Musk left the administration and criticized Trump’s flagship spending bill. Musk posted, then deleted, several claims about Trump, including that the president is in the so-called Epstein files, which are documents compiled about financier and sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. In response, Trump threatened to cancel government contracts awarded to Musk’s companies and the electric vehicle mandate, which would hurt Musk’s automaker Tesla Inc.

NN: elon stop the drugs before they destroy you
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Iran to force US out of region, if talks fall through

Iran’s Defense Minister Aziz Nasirzadeh said on Wednesday that the United States will be forced to leave the region if the nuclear talks between the two countries fall through and conflict is imposed on Tehran. “I announce on behalf of the Iranian nation and the armed forces that we hope that the negotiations will reach a conclusion and that things will not go that far. However, if the negotiations do not reach a conclusion and a conflict is imposed on us, the casualties of the other side will certainly be far greater than ours, and in that case, America will be forced to leave the region because all of its bases are within our reach and we have access to them, and we will target them all in the host countries without consideration,” Nasirzadeh said, reiterating his last month’s warnings. The Iranian minister also confirmed that Tehran successfully tested a missile with a two-ton warhead in the previous week.

NN: that’s enough to carry one of their nukes to Israel
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Trump: Iran ‘much more aggressive’ in nuclear talks now

United States President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that Iran has become “much more aggressive” in the negotiations regarding its nuclear program. “Iran is acting much differently in negotiations than it did just days ago. Much more aggressive. It’s surprising to me. It’s disappointing, but we are set to meet again tomorrow – we’ll see,” Trump told Fox News. Earlier today, Iranian lawmakers stated that they believe the US is “not serious” in the nuclear talks and claimed that the US and Israel are planning to use the negotiations to set a “strategic trap” for Iran.

NN: Iran has got the goods
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Oil Prices Could Sink Below $50 This Year says S&P Global

  • Analysts from S&P Global and others predict crude oil prices may drop below $50 per barrel due to weak demand growth, the slowest since the pandemic.
  • Despite the bearish fundamentals, prices are currently rising on optimism over U.S.–China trade negotiations and potential easing of export controls.
  • China’s restrictions on rare earth exports and ongoing talks about reversing them have added volatility to markets and concern in global industries.

Crude oil prices could decline below $50 a barrel this year, according to analysts from outlets including S&P Global. This will give American drivers much needed relief at the pump after years of gas price inflation. One reason for the hypothetical decline is what is widely seen as weakening demand growth. The IEA recently estimated this growth at below 1 million bpd this year, the weakest since the pandemic lockdown period. Supply, on the other hand is, growing, notably from OPEC+, which earlier this year decided to start bringing back production after two years of cuts.

Yet prices right now are on the rise, with the drivers coming from the world of geopolitics. The United States and China are negotiating a trade deal and there are reasons for optimism, which is driving the benchmarks higher in anticipation of a return to normal trade relations between the world’s two largest economies.

The latest update from the negotiating table had a U.S. government official tell media that President Trump could ease chip export restrictions in exchange for China loosening its own new restrictions on rare earth exports amid rising panic in the carmaking sector about a looming shortage of essential components. The chief of the White House National Economic Council Kevin Hassett said he expected the two sides to reach a deal on the issue during their talks in London, so Chinese rare earth magnets could return to international markets at normal volumes. “Our expectation is that … immediately after the handshake, any export controls from the U.S. will be eased,” Hassett told CNBC. China restricted rare earth exports in April, threatening a wide range of industries that use components featuring the elements with massive shortages, with carmakers warning they may have to start idling factories in a matter of weeks.

NN: obviously the algo Moroni’s and candle stick assholes are in trouble because they piled  all in short at the $58 brent april low. this $9.00 rally is wiping out many oil trading firms. That is why you are seeing the fake news about the non existing demand destrction. and predictions of a $30 drop
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Iran threatens to strike Israeli nuclear sites if attacked….. Grossi: Iran to pursue a nuclear weapon if struck

Iran’s Supreme National Security Council issued a statement Monday threatening to target Israel’s “hidden nuclear facilities” in case of an Israeli attack. On Sunday, Tehran announced it gained access to highly sensitive Israeli classified material, including information about the country’s presumed nuclear capabilities. The council described the operation as a “great intelligence achievement” and a result of Iran’s efforts to identify the weaknesses and strengths of the Israeli regime. The claimed security breach would enable Iran to “immediately retaliate” against nuclear sites and “against economic and military infrastructure” in Israel if the latter country targets sites related to Tehran’s nuclear program. Iran’s potential response would be “precisely proportionate to the type of aggression,” the statement stressed. Meanwhile, United States President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu were expected to hold a phone call about Iran nuclear talks.

Grossi: Iran to pursue a nuclear weapon if struck

International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General Rafael Grossi told Jerusalem Post on Monday that an Israeli strike against Iran would cause it to “pursue a nuclear weapon or withdraw from the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons.” NB: the are already pursing nuclear weapons “I’m telling you this because they have told me so directly,” he explained. Speaking about the possibility of targeting Iranian nuclear facilities if the talks with the United States fail, Grossi stated the Israeli government “will decide what is best.” In addition, he noted that Iranian nuclear sites are well-protected, adding that “disrupting them would require overwhelming and devastating force.” Earlier today, Iran vowed it would retaliate by striking Israel’s “hidden nuclear facilities” in response to potential Israeli action, declaring it obtained thousands of secret documents containing information about that country’s strategic nuclear sites.

NN they shot 300 of their best missiles at Israel and they did not hit sqat. Israel retaliated  and tore them a new asshole. which they still have not recovered from. there air defenses are still out of action.
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Russia to build eight nuclear reactors in Iran

Ebrahim Rezaei, spokesman for the Iranian parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, said on Monday that Russia will build eight nuclear power plants in Iran under an existing bilateral agreement. Rezaei added that four reactors will be located in the southern port city of Bushehr. The announcement came as Rezaei quoted Atomic Energy Organization chief Mohammad Eslami, who confirmed the project’s scope. Eslami also updated lawmakers on the progress of units 2 and 3 at the Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant, highlighting that both are being built exclusively by Iranian firms. The project builds on a longstanding partnership between Iran and Russia in the nuclear sector, anchored by the original Bushehr unit, which became operational with Russian assistance in 2011.

nn: one of the three top oil producers in the world needs 10 nuclear  reactors…. yeah right
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Netanyahu said to hold security meeting after call with Trump

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will hold a meeting of the country’s security cabinet later today after his phone call with United States President Donald Trump, Israel’s Channel 12 reported Monday. Although there is no official confirmation of the call between Netanyahu and Trump, the two leaders are expected to focus on the Iran nuclear talks. Israel was said to have previously promised to refrain from a military solution against Iran unless Tehran’s negotiations with Washington failed to result in an agreement. Iran is expected to soon deliver its response to the latest US offer, while also emphasizing the country was not ready to give up pursuing a peace-time nuclear program. Although reports indicated the US proposal would allow Iran to maintain low-level nuclear enrichment, President Donald Trump publicly opposed allowing Tehran to enrich uranium.

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Oil Up 4% in Week Algos to Drop Short Bets…… Grossi: IAEA can’t ensure Iran program ‘peaceful’

 

Oil rose as stronger-than-expected US jobs data eased concerns about an economic slowdown that would crimp demand, spurring algorithmic traders to reduce short positions.  West Texas Intermediate climbed almost 2% to settle above $64 a barrel, notching the largest weekly gain since November. Crude followed equities higher after US job growth in May narrowly surpassed economist forecasts, allaying concerns of near-term demand deterioration. The figures also pushed economy-sensitive diesel futures to a two-week high.  “Trading is relatively quiet today, with macroeconomic factors continuing to drive the narrative,” said Rebecca Babin, a senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth Group. “The unemployment data is easing concerns that demand will sharply decline due to tariff uncertainty.” The positive economic data spurred commodity trading advisers to ease off of their bearish tilt. The funds, which can accelerate price momentum, liquidated short positions to sit at negative 9% short in WTI on Friday, compared with 64% short on June 5, according to data from Bridgeton Research Group. The rally was supported by enduring risk-on sentiment from optimistic signs on trade talks between the US and China, the world’s largest importer of crude. President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, agreed to further negotiations over tariffs and supplies of rare earth minerals. The positive signals come against the backdrop of an oil market that has been increasingly rangebound in recent weeks. Prices have traded in a $5 band since the middle of May, and a gauge of volatility for US crude futures is at the lowest since early April.  Oil has been buffeted in Trump’s second term as trade tensions between the world’s two largest economies menace demand. At the same time, the OPEC+ alliance has been adding barrels back to the market at a faster-than-expected rate, further clouding an already weak outlook for the second half of the year.  The number of oil rigs in the US, meanwhile, plummeted to the lowest in about four years as shale explorers anticipate weakening global oil demand.

Grossi: IAEA can’t ensure Iran program ‘peaceful’

International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General Rafael Grossi urged the US to “spare no effort” in nuclear talks with Iran as the watchdog cannot ensure that the country’s program is “exclusively peaceful.” “Unless and until Iran assists the Agency in resolving the outstanding safeguards issues, the Agency will not be in a position to provide assurance that Iran’s nuclear programme is exclusively peaceful,” Grossi said. Further, the agency found three undeclared uranium enrichment locations in Iran – at Varamin, Marivan and Turquzabad.

Grossi also warned that the Islamic Republic has the materials necessary to break out toward a nuclear weapon after the IAEA reported that Iran was still producing highly enriched uranium, a critical part of its nuclear talks with the US.