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After years of waiting, Israel’s Netanyahu finally makes his move on Iran

  • Netanyahu threatened Iran for years, many saw it as a bluff
  • Israeli leader sees Iran as existential threat to Israel
  • Recent Middle East tumult provided a rare chance to strike
  • Netanyahu hopes success will secure his legacy
JERUSALEM, June 13 (Reuters) – Iran once ridiculed Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as the boy who cried wolf for his constant public warnings about Tehran’s nuclear programme, and his repeated threats to shut it down, one way or another. “You can only fool some of the people so many times,” Iran’s then-foreign minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, said in 2018 after Netanyahu had once again accused Iran of planning to build nuclear weapons. On Friday, after two decades of continually raising the alarm and urging other world leaders to act, Netanyahu finally decided to go it alone, authorizing an Israeli air assault aimed, Israel says, at preventing Iran from obtaining weapons of mass destruction. In an address to the nation, Netanyahu, as he has so often before, evoked the horrors of the Nazi Holocaust in World War Two to explain his decision. “Nearly a century ago, facing the Nazis, a generation of leaders failed to act in time,” Netanyahu said, adding that a policy of appeasing Nazi dictator Adolf Hitler had led to the deaths of 6 million Jews, “a third of my people”.
“After that war, the Jewish people and the Jewish state vowed never again. Well, never again is now today. Israel has shown that we have learned the lessons of history.”
Iran says its nuclear energy programme is only for peaceful purposes, although the International Atomic Energy Agency on Thursday declared the country in breach of its non-proliferation obligations for the first time in almost 20 years.
Israeli military sources said the strikes disabled four of Iran’s Russian-made air-defense systems, including one positioned near Natanz, a key Iranian nuclear site that was targeted, according to Iranian television. “Iran is more exposed than ever to strikes on its nuclear facilities. We have the opportunity to achieve our most important goal — to thwart and eliminate the existential threat,” Defence Minister Israel Katz said in November. But much to the consternation of Netanyahu, newly installed U.S. President Donald Trump blindsided him during a visit to the White House in April, when he announced the United States and Iran were poised to begin direct nuclear talks.
Netanyahu has locked horns with successive U.S. presidents over Iran, most noticeably Barack Obama, who approved a deal with Tehran in 2015 imposing significant restrictions on Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief.
Trump pulled out of the accord in 2018, and Netanyahu had hoped that he would continue to take an uncompromising stance against Iran when he returned to office this year.
In announcing talks, the White House set a two-month deadline for Iran to sign a deal. Even though a fresh round of meetings was set for this weekend, the unofficial deadline expired on Thursday and Netanyahu pounced.
One Israeli official told state broadcaster Kan that Israel had coordinated with Washington ahead of the attacks and suggested recent newspaper reports of a rift between Trump and Netanyahu over Iran had been a ruse to lull the Tehran leadership into a false sense of security.

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Trump – who said after the strikes began that Iran cannot have a nuclear bomb but that he wants talks to proceed – has previously hailed the right-wing Netanyahu as a great friend. Other leaders have struggled with him.
“Generations from now, history will record that our generation stood its ground, acted in time and secured our common future. May God bless Israel. May God bless the forces of civilization, everywhere,” he said in Friday’s speech.
NN:  I have nothing to add

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Israel said to be ready for full-scale war with Iran

Israel confirmed its readiness for all scenarios, including a potential full-scale conflict with Iran, according to Benjamin Gendelman, a senior advisor in the Israeli Prime Minister’s office, in his statement to TASS on Friday. When questioned about the possibility of a major military engagement with Iran, he responded that “Israel is ready for any development of events. Israel first and foremost relies on its own military forces and capabilities, both in defense and in attack.” Israel conducted an extensive military operation against Iran today, targeting nuclear installations and air defense systems, following concerns over Tehran’s expanding nuclear activities. Iranian officials maintain that their uranium enrichment serves peaceful purposes only.

NN: Israel had agreed not to attack. until it found out Iran was weeks away from icbm mounted nukes
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Israel Strikes Iran’s Nuclear Program, Braces for Retaliation

  • Israel attacks Iran’s nuclear, ballistic missile programs
  • Iran vows blow against Israel, US; Says no damage to refineries
  • Israeli airstrikes killed commander of Revolutionary Guard
  • US says not involved, warned Iran against targeting US assets
  • Crude oil, gold surge as stocks drop

The opening strike was targeting top leaders of the Islamic Republic, Iran’s state TV has just reported that the chief of staff of the nation’s Armed Forces was also killed in Israeli strikes, without providing any further details Fox News cited Trump as saying that “there are several people in leadership that will not be coming back.”

Israel’s opening strike on Iran was “very successful,” Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a video statement. He said Israel struck Iranian senior commanders, nuclear facilities and senior scientists advancing nuclear weapons. Netanyahu also called on the public to be prepared to spend an extended period in shelters. National Iranian Oil Refining and Distribution Co. says Israeli attacks didn’t cause any damage to the country’s oil refineries and storage tanks, state-run IRNA news agency reports. Fuel distribution across Iran ongoing without interruption.
Here’s a look at Iran’s oil and gas assets.
Iran’s Oil and Gas Assets: What to Watch |
Omar , Oman said it holds Israel responsible for this escalation and its repercussions and says such a “reckless” approach threatens to “preclude diplomatic solutions and undermine the security and stability of the region,” state-run Oman News Agency reports. This is the first Gulf state to comment on the attack. Oman has been mediating between the US and Iran and is the host of nuclear talks. The sixth round of these negotiations between the US and Iran were scheduled to be held on June 15.
Fox News reporter Jennifer Griffin’s readout of the network’s phone call with President Trump:

For central banks, including the RBA, it adds to the uncertainty in the global environment. We’d expect some of the strongest reaction in oil prices which could reverberate through into inflation rates if persistent.”
Marko Papic, chief strategist at BCA Research, says much in markets will depend on how Iran retaliates. If the nation hits US assets in the region, for example, the US response will be immediate and painful — even though the administration was quick to say today they had no involvement in the Israeli strike. The only certainty at this point is upward pressure on crude, he said, though the spike would be temporary and not change central bank policy outlook.
“Investors should expect a cycle of retaliation and re-retaliation, as in 2024, but should fade effects on both crude and global risk assets if this becomes the bulk of the Iranian retaliation.”
Katia DmitrievaAsia Economics Correspondent
Oil Spikes After Israel Struck Iran | Prices surged on heightening tensions on the Middle East
Oil options volatility has surged to the highest level in three years as traders seek protection from surging prices after Israel carried out airstrikes targeting Iran’s nuclear program.
Oil Options Price Bigger Geopolitical Risks | Options have borne the brunt of geopolitical volatility in recent months
“The only way to stop or disrupt Iran becoming a nuclear power is by force and Israel is the only country with both the stomach and capability to do so,” he said. “Most of the rest of the region particularly Saudi Arabia, UAE and Egypt, will quietly cheer.”
Nicole Grajewski, a fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace who specializes in the region, reacted on social media:

“If you were to ask the worst case scenario, this would be close to it — ongoing US-Iran talks (regardless of progress) and Israel acting on its own, targeting Iran’s military leadership along with civilian casualties only three days before US-Iran negotiations.”
Following up from what IRNA reported, we now have headlines coming from Iran’s Armed Forces spokesperson. In a televised address, he said Israel and the US will receive a “harsh blow” in response. Israel and Iran are operating in a “new paradigm,” and a military response by Tehran is inevitable, said Rodger Shanahan, Middle East expert and former Australian army officer.
“You can’t not do something. It’s what your risk tolerance is and how you perceive Israel’s Western allies are going to protect them,” he said.
Whether or not the conflict escalates depends on Iran’s choice of target, Shanahan said. A like-for-like attack on military installations would be “containable,” he said, but any move to indiscriminately attack Israel’s civilian population would cross a red line. As expected, Iran says it’s planning a “decisive response,” according to IRNA news agency reports. Iranian TV meantime reported an explosion at the Natanz nuclear site and a a blast at the Shahid Ahmadi Roshan nuclear site.
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Israel Attacks Iran’s Nuclear Facilities……..

Israel has launched a series of coordinated airstrikes on Iran, targeting nuclear facilities in what it describes as a decisive move to prevent the Islamic Republic from becoming a nuclear power. The Israeli military announced the operation on its official Telegram channel, stating that “dozens of fighter jets struck Iranian nuclear complexes in various parts of the country.” The strikes immediately triggered a sharp reaction in global markets, sending oil, bonds, and gold rallying. Brent crude surged by more than 7% in early Friday trading, as traders began pricing in the risk of major supply disruptions from a region that accounts for roughly one-third of the world’s oil production. Oil is now on course for its largest weekly gain since 2022. Gold prices also rallied as investors moved into safe-haven assets amid the mounting geopolitical risk.

According to Israeli sources, the goal of the airstrikes is to disrupt Iran’s nuclear program, viewed by Israel as an existential threat. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu convened his cabinet following the strikes, calling the action “a defining moment in Israel’s history.” Israel has closed its airspace and placed its military on high alert, saying it is fully prepared for a potential Iranian retaliation.  According to Israel’s Prime Minister Netanyahu, the operation, dubbed Rising Lion, targets he heart of Iran’s nuclear enrichment program. In his declaration, Prime Minister Netanyahu stated: “We struck at the heart of Iran’s nuclear weaponization program. We targeted Iran’s main enrichment facility in Natanz. We targeted Iran’s leading nuclear scientists working on the nuclear bomb. We also struck at Iran’s ballistic missile program.” He noted also that the operation “could last for as many days as it takes”, adding that his government will not allow “the world’s most dangerous regime to get the world’s most dangerous weapons”. Iran has yet to issue an official response, though state media reported several explosions in the capital, Tehran. There are no confirmed casualties or assessments of damage at this time. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio was quick to confirm that the United States was not involved in the operation, noting that Israel described the attack as vital for its national defense.

With tensions escalating, oil markets remain on edge. Investment banks like JPMorgan warn that in a worst-case scenario, prices could surge to $120 per barrel if military conflict

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IDF: Operations against Iran to last several days

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) stated that it expects its operations against Iran’s nuclear program, as well as its long-range missile capabilities, to last for several days, the Times of Israel reported. IDF officials stated that “at the end of the operation, there will be no nuclear threat” from Iran. The officials stated that the country was “in a window of strategic opportunities,” adding that they had reached “a point of no return,” stating that there was “no choice but to act now.” Additionally, the IDF stated it was coordinating with the US in the operation, contradicting earlier reports that the US would not aid Israel in any attack on Iran.

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Trump: Israel strike on Iran could ‘very well happen’

https://youtu.be/6s5a7W6iA5U

United States President Donald Trump said on Thursday there is a strong chance that Israel could launch an attack on Iran, though he stopped short of calling it immediate.”I would not say imminent, but it [Israel striking Iran] is something that… could very well happen,” Trump told a reporter when asked about the risk of further escalation. He continued to underscore that the Israeli side did not disclose its plans. “But look, there is a chance of massive conflict. We have a lot of American people in this area, and I said we gotta tell them to get out, cause something could happen soon. And I don’t want to be the one who didn’t give any warning, and missiles are flying into their buildings. It’s possible. So I had to do it,” the president explained, talking about the personnel evacuation.

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Israel said to have informed US it’s ready to launch Iran op

United States officials have allegedly been told that Israel is now “fully ready” to launch an operation into Iran, which is part of the reason behind Washington’s evacuation of diplomatic personnel from Iraq and military families from several bases in the region, CBS News’ Jennifer Jacobs reported. Washington is anticipating that Tehran could retaliate for the Israeli strikes by launching attacks on “certain US sites” in Iraq, Jacobs wrote on X. Even so, White House envoy Steve Witkoff is still planning to attend what is reportedly becoming an “increasingly unlikely” sixth round of US-Iran nuclear talks, scheduled to take place on Sunday.A previous report suggested that Israel assured the White House it wouldn’t attack Iran’s nuclear facilities unless US President Donald Trump signals that talks with Tehran reached a dead end.

NN: Black Mask Pod Cast:

good cop bad cop

 

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U.S. Embassy Prepares Iraq Evacuation

  • Officials cite ‘heightened security risks’ for decision
  • US has previously threatened to strike Iran
  • US military dependents authorised to leave region
BAGHDAD/WASHINGTON, June 11 (Reuters) – The United States is preparing a partial evacuation of its Iraqi embassy and will allow military dependents to leave locations around the Middle East due to heightened security risks in the region, U.S. and Iraqi sources said on Wednesday.
The four U.S. and two Iraqi sources did not specify which security risks had prompted the decision to evacuate and the State Department did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Oil prices rose on the report of the evacuation.
The United States has a military presence in Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates.
U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has authorized the voluntary departure of military dependents from locations across the Middle East, a U.S. official said. Another U.S. official said that was mostly relevant to family members located in Bahrain — where the bulk of them are based.
“The State Department is set to have an ordered departure for (the) U.S. embassy in Baghdad. The intent is to do it through commercial means, but the U.S. military is standing by if help is requested,” a third U.S. official said.
Advertisement · Scroll to continue An Iraqi foreign ministry official said a “partial evacuation” of U.S. embassy staff had been confirmed due to what the official termed “potential security concerns related to possible regional tensions.”
Another U.S. official said that there was no change in operations at Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, the largest U.S. military base in the Middle East and that no evacuation order had been issued for employees or families linked to the U.S. embassy in Qatar, which was operating as usual. Oil futures climbed $3 on reports of the Baghdad evacuation with Brent crude futures at $69.18 a barrel. Iraq, a rare regional partner of both the United States and its arch regional foe Iran, hosts 2,500 U.S. troops and has Tehran-backed armed factions linked to its security forces.
NN: Trump has put Israel on a short leash. And about to cave in to Iranian demands
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Iran using nuclear talks to weaken potential Israeli strikes.. Trump tells Netanyahu he now opposes military attack on Iran

Iran is “exploiting the time to modify nuclear facilities in ways that could diminish the impact of a potential military strike on those sites and their outcomes,” sources said. Against the backdrop of recent satellite images showing construction and changes at Iran’s nuclear sites, Western intelligence officials have warned  that Tehran is using the time afforded by ongoing nuclear negotiations to make alterations that would reduce the effectiveness of any future military strike.

“While nuclear talks are taking place—and Iran keeps scheduling yet another meeting—they are exploiting the time to modify nuclear facilities in ways that could diminish the impact of a potential military strike on those sites and its outcomes,” said the intelligence sources.
Foreign reports and think tank reports have flagged a trend since October 2024, when Israel successfully destroyed all of Tehran’s advanced S-300 anti-aircraft missile systems, of Iran trying to move aspects of its national security assets underground, spread out to more locations, and to finish a new nuclear facility at Natanz. This past Spring, Iran also unveiled multiple videos of underground “missile cities” and other military sites, where it could also move sources of its national power which are currently above ground.
Regarding the new Natanz nuclear facility underneath a mountain even deeper than the Fordow facility, construction started years ago, but less than two months ago a paper by the Institute for Science and International Security noted recent changes which appeared to show a potential rush process to finish aspects of the facility to make it operational sooner. There is a wide-ranging debate about whether Israel could strike Iranian military assets if they were moved to this new facility.
In recent weeks, senior Israeli and European officials have cautioned top members of the US administration that Iran is deliberately stalling in the negotiations.

The issue was also raised in a phone call this week between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and US President Donald Trump. “Tehran is simply buying time,” Netanyahu warned the American president. As previously reported by the Post, European officials have similarly warned their US counterparts that Iran is dragging out the talks in an attempt to create a rift between Europe and the United States over the snapback mechanism—UN Security Council sanctions on Iran that can only be reimposed until mid-October. Under the 2015 nuclear agreement, the member states have the authority to impose broad United Nations Security Council sanctions on Iran through a mechanism known as the snapback, in response to major violations of Iran’s nuclear commitments. This option will no longer be available after October, the “sunset date”. The European signatories have made it clear to Iran that if a new and “meaningful” nuclear deal is not reached by August, they will trigger this mechanism, which would result in extensive sanctions on Iran. “The Europeans told the United States that there must be a clear timeline for the negotiations; otherwise, the Iranians will deliberately stall to create a US-Europe confrontation in an effort to block the use of the sanctions mechanism,” several sources told the Post.
Trump tells Netanyahu he now opposes military attack on Iran

US President Donald Trump has told Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu in their Monday phone call that he believes there is a chance of reaching a nuclear deal with Iran and he now opposes military action, Axios reported, quoting an Israeli and a US official. According to the portal, Netanyahu claimed that Tehran must see “a credible military threat.” “Trump did not sound convinced by this reasoning,” a source said.

Brigadier General Aziz Nasirzadeh, Iran’s Minister of Defense, has called recent Israeli threats against Iran “sheer nonsense,” asserting that the regime lacks the capability to pose a real threat to Iran. In an interview with Al Mayadeen, Nasirzadeh stated that Iran possesses such power that Israel cannot threaten it. “Any malicious action by the Zionist regime will result in its own destruction.” He further added that those who are actually capable of threatening Iran do not speak in such a manner. “The statements from Israeli officials are baseless and empty talk.” Commenting on the same issue, the Commander-in-Chief of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Major General Hossein Salami, declared that Iran is fully prepared to face any possible scenario. General Salami emphasized Iran’s complete readiness to confront any threat and reaffirmed the Islamic Republic’s firm resolve to safeguard national sovereignty and the rights of the Iranian people. NN:

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UK warns of increased tensions in Persian Gulf……. CENTCOM chief presented options for Iran strike

The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) said on Wednesday that it received reports of increased tensions in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman and Straits of Hormuz. It warned the situation could lead to an “escalation of military activity having a direct impact on mariners.”  The UKMTO advised vessels to transit the area with caution and report incidents or suspicious activity.

CENTCOM chief presented options for Iran strike

United States Central Command (CENTCOM) chief, General Michael Kurilla, revealed Tuesday that the Pentagon presented President Donald Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth with a “wide range of options” for a strike on Iran if no agreement about its nuclear program was reached. During his testimony before the House Armed Services Committee on US military posture in the Middle East and Africa, Kurilla referred to Iran as a “malign” actor, emphasizing the importance of deterrence for regional stability. The latest round of US-Iran talks is expected to be held in Oman on Sunday. Meanwhile, Trump repeatedly declared that failure to reach an agreement would lead to military action against Iran.