- President Trump’s shortened deadline for a Russia-Ukraine cease-fire has been met with silence from the Kremlin and an increase in attacks on Ukrainian cities.
- Analysts suggest that Putin is waiting to understand Trump’s next actions, as the US president’s unpredictability makes it difficult for Moscow to plan its response.
- Despite Trump’s threats of tariffs, experts believe Russia is unlikely to change its approach to the conflict, especially given its economic ties with China and India.
Putin’s spokesman Dmitri Peskov gave a terse response on July 29, saying the Kremlin had “taken note” of Trump’s comments without elaborating. He added that he would not comment on another Trump remark that he was “no longer interested” in talks with Putin.
The Kremlin’s taciturn response speaks volumes, according to political analyst Boris Pastukhov.
“Putin is waiting,“To know what to say next, he needs to understand exactly how Trump plans to behave.”
Trump has a track record of shifting deadlines, particularly when it comes to tariffs.
On this occasion, he said he was shortening the timeframe because “when you deal with someone long enough, you know what they’re going to do — or not do.”
By contrast, it’s not only unclear whether Trump will again shift the deadline. It’s also not certain what measures he would impose if he decided to act.
Tariffs on Russian goods would have little impact, since Russia exports so little to the United States anyway. It’s a storm the Kremlin could weather.
Secondary sanctions would significantly raise the stakes – not only in Trump’s dealings with Putin, but also in his relations with countries like China and India, which have been helping finance Russia’s war on Ukraine through the purchasing of Russian oil.
Pastukhov said Putin was now deliberately keeping his cards close to his chest and waiting for Trump to play his.
“Trump isn’t just unpredictable to ordinary people — he’s unpredictable to the Kremlin as well. They don’t know what to expect from him, so they’re keeping their next move in reserve,” he said.
Amid the Kremlin’s silence, Russian media and lesser officials have been repeating phrases of stock defiance.
Komsomolskaya Pravda newspaper said Trump’s approach might be good for dealing with “regional conflicts” but could not be applied to Russia or China.
Likewise, former president Dmitri Medvedev, who is currently deputy head of the country’s Security Council, wrote that “Russia is not Israel or Iran” and warned Trump against “playing the ultimatum game with Russia.”
When Trump said that he was shortening the deadline, he noted that he was “very disappointed” with Putin, words he also used when he announced his original ultimatum.
At the time, analysts also said that they did not expect Putin to change tack as a result of Trump’s threats.