Russian Deputy Energy Minister Pavel Sorokin announced on Thursday that the country’s oil exports will likely rise in 2024. At a public council, Sorokin explained that this would happen due to “unplanned maintenance at refineries.” “The situation is stable, but the primary [oil refining] will be reduced,” he detailed.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) revealed on Thursday in its Oil Market Report that the global market is anticipated to encounter a deficit throughout the year. The report now assumes that OPEC+ voluntary cuts will remain in effect through 2024, adjusting the market balance from a surplus to a slight deficit.
Global oil demand is set to rise by an unexpected 1.7 million barrels per day (mb/d) in the first quarter of 2024, buoyed by a more optimistic outlook for the United States and increased bunkering. Despite an upward revision of 110 kb/d from last month’s report, growth is expected to decelerate from 2.3 mb/d in 2023 to 1.3 mb/d in 2024. World oil production is projected to drop by 870 kb/d in the first quarter of 2024 compared to the fourth quarter of 2023 due to weather-related shutdowns and new restrictions from OPEC+. Meanwhile, the global supply in 2024 is forecasted to increase by 800 kb/d to 102.9 mb/d despite a downward adjustment to OPEC+ output.