U.S. Treasury yields extend rising run on Fed taper talk

LONDON, Aug 10 (Reuters) – Global shares hovered below record highs on Tuesday, while anticipation of earlier tapering of bond-buying by the Federal Reserve pushed U.S. 10-year Treasury yields to their longest rising run in six months. The dollar also scaled a four-month high versus the euro as investors looked ahead to U.S. inflation numbers on Wednesday for further indications of when the world’s largest economy may start to withdraw stimulus after taper talk was amped up by strong jobs data. European shares pushed to fresh record highs, with the STOXX 600 (.STOXX) 0.2% stronger to extend its gains to a seventh straight session, boosted by travel and leisure companies. Nasdaq futures added 0.1% and S&P 500 futures were flat as investors awaited progress towards the passing of a much-anticipated infrastructure bill.  The U.S. Senate has set a vote on passage of the $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill for 11 am ET (1500 GMT), after which it would immediately begin to debate $3.5 trillion in additional investments. Activity, meanwhile, was heating up in bond markets. Indications in recent days of an improving labour market have prompted investors to rethink the outlook for U.S. monetary policy, halting recent sharp falls in both U.S. and European bond yields. U.S. 10-year Treasury yields scaled their highest in over three weeks, extending the longest run of gains since early February.The benchmark 10-year yield rose to as high as 1.336% in London trade and is up almost 20 basis points from six-month lows hit last week. “Risks remain. While inflation data has so far not been a major market mover, Wednesday’s July consumer price index release has the potential to cause volatility, especially given expectations that inflation has passed the peak,” said Mark Haefele, chief investment officer, UBS Global Wealth Management. Adding fuel to the debate, two Fed officials said on Monday that while the labour market still has room for improvement, inflation is already at a level that could satisfy one leg of a key test for the beginning of interest rate hikes.  Data on Monday showed that U.S. job openings shot up to a fresh record high in June and hiring also increased. That followed Friday’s non-farm payroll report showing jobs increased by a larger-than-expected 943,000 in July.  While signs of economic recovery in the U.S. are reviving reflation trade bets, investors remain wary of the lingering risks posed by COVID-19. China on Monday reported more COVID-19 infections in what seems to be its most severe resurgence of the disease since mid-2020, as some cities added rounds of mass testing in a bid to stamp out infections.  MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) added 0.4% after trading much of the day in the red as worries weighed about the spread of the Delta variant. With tapering expectations gaining traction, the dollar extended its gains made on Friday and Monday. The dollar index reached an 18-day high of 93.102 on Tuesday, while the euro hit a new four-month low against the dollar, with the pair changing hands at $1.1716 . Gold prices recovered after touching a four-month low on Monday, with spot gold little changed at $1,729.80 per ounce. Oil prices rose more than 1% on Tuesday, recouping some of the losses in the previous session when prices hit a three-week low. U.S. crude oil futures were trading at $67.66 per barrel, up $1.17 or 1.76%. Brent crude was at $69.98, 1.36% higher. U.S. oil was up 1.7%, at $67.56 a barrel. Nick Note: This is a very confusing market. Let me try to add clarity. The FED has fucked up royally. they have to fight a flood and a fire at the same time. They over stimulated the economy and sparked off massive inflation… Which is a shit storm on the near horizon. The market got it all wrong and drove rates on our beloved zero’s to 1.8% area where i had you take profits as the stupid money panicked and mindless chased yield. This got so silly that THE AVERAGE YIELD ON JUNK BONDS WENT UNDER 2%… LET ME PUT IT THIS WAY THEIR IS A WHOLE LOT OF FUCKING GOING ON. The bottom i believe in yields has been put in. The Fed will soon panic and slam on the brakes and i see them driving rates 300 to 400 bases points higher. That will allow us to buy back our zeroes principal portion starting at a span of 2,5% to 5.5%. I will advise. The slamming on the brakes besides giving a huge jump in interest rates will bring a massive decline in the Fed stimulation which is now out of control.  The dreaded tapering. Here is how this goes. The FED will stop buying mortgage, corporate and treasury paper collapsing all these markets. This will occur in earnest after Powell is thrown out on his ass because run away inflation and becomes the fall guy. The fed will panic and crash the stock market with a lot of help from wave after wave of the covid-19 epidemic that will be difficult to control….. They cannot vaccinate enough people fast enough with vaccines targeted to the three variants coming down the pike. The Delta+,  the Beta and Delta variants merging and a super mutant strain i here rumors that may be circulating in third world shit holes….. And that means they they will reverse tighter monetary policy forget about inflation and try to save the economy much like 2008. They will drive interest rates to double digit negative…..