The Treasury Department will issue $600 billion-$700 billion in T-bills weeks after lawmakers agree to lift the debt ceiling, Goldman Sachs estimated. President Joe Biden and Republicans in Congress have  reached a deal. Goldman expects the Treasury to flood the market with T-bills, restoring its cash balance to $550 billion within six to eight weeks of the deal. On Friday, the Treasury General Account was $60.7 billion, down from $140 billion just a week prior. Overall, Goldman expects the Treasury will supply the market with more than $1 trillion of T-bills on a net basis this year.

That will pull liquidity out of financial markets. In a separate note, analysts at Bank of America recently said that would have an equivalent impact on the economy as a Federal Reserve rate hike of 25 basis points.

That comes as the banking sector is still grappling with the fallout of Silicon Valley Bank’s collapse, which led to deposits fleeing regional banks. Meanwhile, more than a year of Fed rate hikes has also drawn money from bank accounts and into higher-yielding money market funds. Goldman estimated that bank reserves would drop by $400 billion-$500 billion due to the Treasury rebuilding its cash balance, continued deposit outflows, and the Fed’s ongoing quantitative tightening program. The Treasury Department will immediately issue $170 billion in T-bills before  its cash balance shrinks further. NN BlaskMask Blog:

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