The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) revealed its latest West Texas Intermediate (WTI) spot price forecasts in its January short term energy outlook (STEO), which was released recently. In that STEO, the EIA projected that the WTI spot price will average $70.31 per barrel in 2025 and $62.46 per barrel in 2026. The EIA’s previous STEO, which was released in December, forecast that the 2025 WTI spot price would average $69.12 per barrel. That STEO did not include a WTI spot price forecast for 2026. A quarterly breakdown included in the latest STEO showed that the EIA expects the WTI spot price to come in at $72.34 per barrel in the first quarter of this year, $71 per barrel in the second quarter, $70 per barrel in the third quarter, $68 per barrel in the fourth quarter, $64.97 per barrel in the fifth quarter of 2026, $63.33 per barrel in the second quarter, $61.68 per barrel in the third quarter, and $60 per barrel in the fourth quarter of next year.
The EIA’s December STEO projected that the WTI spot price would average $69.67 per barrel in the first quarter of 2025, $69.83 per barrel in the second quarter, $69.50 per barrel in the third quarter, and $67.50 per barrel in the fourth quarter. The EIA’s January STEO put the 2024 WTI spot price average at $76.60 per barrel. Its December STEO had it at $76.51 per barrel.
JPM Commodities Research team on Monday revealed that J.P. Morgan expects the WTI crude price to average $69 per barrel in 2025, and $57 per barrel in 2026. The company sees the WTI crude price coming in at $70 per barrel in the first quarter of this year, $73 per barrel in the second quarter, $69 per barrel in the third quarter, $65 per barrel in the fourth quarter, $60 per barrel in the first quarter of next year, $59 per barrel in the second quarter, $55 per barrel in the third quarter, and $53 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026, according to the research note. The research note put the 2024 WTI price average at $77 per barrel.
Standard Chartered Bank Commodities Research Head Paul Horsnell this week showed that Standard Chartered expects the NYMEX WTI Basis nearby future crude oil price to average $79 per barrel in the first quarter of 2025, $81 per barrel in the second quarter, $86 per barrel in the third quarter, $90 per barrel in the fourth quarter, $88 per barrel in the first quarter of 2026, and $90 per barrel in the second quarter.
BMI report by the Fitch Group last month showed that BMI, a Fitch Solutions company, projected that the WTI crude front month price would average $77 per barrel in 2024 and $73 per barrel in 2025.
Macquarie team on strategists noted that “both WTI and Brent speculative (MM + Other) net length grew over the past week”. “WTI net length increased by 37.9K while Brent rose by 22.3K. WTI spec net length gained as new long interest was over five greater than added shorts,” the strategists highlighted in that report.
XS.com, Senior Market Analyst Antonio Di Giacomo, highlighted that the price of WTI crude oil had “experienced a notable increase, surpassing $80 per barrel”.