Predictions of declining demand for the world’s most polluting fossil fuel coal are wrong wrong wrong
Coal demand set a record high in 2024, according to the International Energy Agency’s annual report published on Wednesday. Considering the commodity is the most important contributor to global warming, its consumption trends matter enormously for the fight against climate change. The report makes for a depressing reading: The planet is losing to our unquenchable demand for king coal. Forget all the slogans about consigning coal to history. We’re on a path to consigning the planet to history.
The International Energy Agency has revised higher its historical coal demand data and its forecast from those published in earlier years
As the IEA puts it, “coal is often considered a fuel of the past, but global consumption of it has doubled in the past three decades.” Worse, not only has usage grown a lot – particularly in China and India – but demand will keep rising for the foreseeable future. The IEA now estimates that global coal demand surged to an all-time high of 8,771 million metric tons this year, up 1% from 20232, as electricity demand rose faster than expected. That shouldn’t be a surprise: The energy transition requires electrifying everything. Renewables are doing some of that job, but coal remains, the go-to fuel to power the energy transition. Worse, the IEA revised higher its historical data, so the increase comes from a significantly higher baseline than before. The world is consuming a lot more coal than we thought – and therefore, it’s polluting the atmosphere a lot more than we thought, too. While last year the IEA initially estimated consumption in 2023 at 8,563 million tons, it pegs it now at 8,687 million. The difference equals roughly to the annual demand of Japan, the world’s fourth-biggest coal consumer
China accounts for more than half the world’s coal demand, with the US and the European Union accounting for a fraction of global consumption
The IEA has been calling for a peak in coal use, particularly in China, for more than a decade. Considering that record of wrong calls, it would be prudent for the agency to err on the side of caution. Flagging higher demand isn’t cheerleading fossil-fuel consumption – it’s candidly conceding to reality.
The biggest problem is China. The country, worshiped by some green enthusiasts thanks to its embrace of electric vehicles, wind turbines and solar panels, is the world’s big polluter. China alone consumes nearly 30% more coal than the rest of the world together. That’s not ending anytime soon. Now, the IEA assumes that Chinese coal demand will set an all-time high every year until at least 2027. For Beijing, coal is energy security. It’s time to acknowledge that. And acknowledge that China’s promises to reduce its coal consumption any time soon just don’t stand up to scrutiny