Author: BlackMask Financial

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Vance: US isn’t imposing deal on Middle East region…… Iran is!

They also agreed on a mechanism to end fighting in Lebanon between U.S. ally Israel and Iran-aligned Hezbollah, and opened a communications line to help ensure safe passage for commercial ships through the strait, a vital global oil supply route. Sunday’s meeting followed an interim deal signed last week and ​stretched into the early hours of Monday, despite Tehran again shutting the waterway on Saturday and U.S. President Donald Trump threatening to resume attacks on Iran. “The discussions were held in a ​positive and constructive atmosphere and yielded encouraging progress,” Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif wrote on X, adding that the first round of talks had “concluded successfully”. Vice ⁠President JD Vance, who led Washington’s delegation, told reporters Trump had “asked us to turn over a new leaf to transform our relationship with the people of Iran” and said progress had been made towards ​ending hostilities in Lebanon.
“These things are always a little bit messy,” he said.
The main Iranian negotiating team, including senior diplomat Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, left Switzerland for Tehran, Iranian student news agency ISNA reported, but technical ​talks were due to continue for the rest of this week. In a post on social media, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said Tehran had secured waivers for oil and petrochemical exports, the release of some frozen assets and the launch of a reconstruction and development plan for Iran. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi wrote on X that mediators delivered “major progress to end the Lebanon War.” But he said the first “real test” of negotiations would be whether the mechanism succeeds in halting the fighting between Israel and Hezbollah. Iran has insisted on first addressing the fighting in Lebanon. Neither Israel nor Hezbollah is a signatory to the U.S.-Iran deal. A renewed ceasefire in Lebanon appeared to be holding, and Israel’s military said it would lift movement restrictions for residents near the Israel-Lebanon border on Monday. Cautious calm continued Monday in Lebanon, with no Israeli strikes reported overnight. Hezbollah has not announced any attacks on Israeli forces since Saturday. The lull in fighting in Lebanon is the longest since the latest Israel-Hezbollah war began on March 2. “This region has been a basket case for a very long time,” Vance said.
NN: Vance figured out  how tp  make a bad deal even worse
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US-Iran technical talks said to have begun in Switzerland

Technical talks between the United States and Iran on implementing the memorandum of understanding and creating related working groups began on Monday in Switzerland, Iran’s ISNA news agency reported. Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi led the country’s negotiating team, according to the report. High-level delegations from both countries held negotiations at the Buergenstock Resort near Lucerne, Switzerland, on Sunday, and agreed on a roadmap to reach a final deal within 60 days. Iran also revealed that an agreement had been reached with the US on a mechanism to ensure safe transit through the Strait of Hormuz.

NN: No agreement will stick. And they will violate every agreement as they rearm including building nukes. It will be years of endless negotiations that will go nowhere. If we don’t end them now they will end us when they spark off WWIII.
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Tanker owner trade body says centre of strait will stay shut for ‘some time

The centre of the strait of Hormuz is blocked with about 80 mines that will need clearing for normal shipping to resume, the independent tanker owner trade body has said. Several vessels began to exit the Gulf through the key maritime chokepoint on Thursday after the signing of a memorandum of understanding (MoU) between the US and Iran.

However, shipping is not expected to return to normal for some time, even if a ceasefire lasted, because of the mines and other obstacles, underlining the continuing challenges facing global trade. Maybe by this time next year

“The main route … through the middle of the strait of Hormuz, that’s closed, that’s dangerous,” said Phil Belcher, the marine director at Intertanko, the tanker owners association. “The latest figure we had was that there’s 80 mines in the strait of Hormuz. It’s an enormous amount and it’s going to take some time to clear.” During the conflict Tehran laid mines in the centre of the strait in the traffic separation scheme, which has been in place between Iran and Oman since 1968, to restrict the movement of tankers and other vessels.About 20,000 seafarers were left stuck either side of the channel, although some ships managed to sneak through at night near the Omani coast with their transmitters off and with US assistance. Others paid to travel through Iranian waters in an arrangement nicknamed “Tehran’s tollbooth”. The shipping industry is keen to see a return to using the standard route, which before the conflict allowed about 130 ships a day to cross the strait, through which about 20% of global oil used to flow. “This is like a highway where the road in the middle is closed and you are using the hard shoulder,” said Belcher.

“We need to get the highway open so we can get the volume of traffic through safely. One of the big issues we’ve got at the moment is the navigational risk, the risk of running aground on the rocks. It’s very close to the rocks on the southern route, the Omani route.”

With high numbers of vessels trying to pass through narrow areas of the strait, the shipping industry is warning of the risk of collision. This risk is intensified by the “signal jamming” that Iran has reportedly carried out during the conflict, where electronic interference has prevented ships’ navigating and positioning systems from operating, leaving them effectively sailing blind. A collision, grounding or sinking could further disrupt global trade. Shipping companies still remember the disruption caused in 2021 when the container ship Ever Given blocked the Suez canal for a week. Almost 600 vessels are believed to still be in the Gulf, where they have been anchored since February, meaning the backlog will take time to clear.

Richard Meade, editor-in-chief at the maritime data provider Lloyd’s List, said: “We are in uncharted territory. I don’t think [shipping in the strait] is getting back to normal this year.”

The shipping industry is cautiously waiting to see whether the ceasefire in the strait will hold, after Israel and Hezbollah traded deadly strikes on Friday. The industry was already on high alert after the April ceasefire unravelled within hours of being announced. The MoU signed by the US and Iran this week should be “greeted with realism and extreme caution”, said Peter Sand, the chief analyst at the ocean and air freight analytics firm Xeneta. “Even if the ceasefire holds, around 10% of global container shipping capacity is impacted by the blockade and freight rates are spiralling across major trades. This scale of disruption and market volatility cannot be reversed overnight.” Further concerns remain over Iran saying it plans to charge a maritime fee to vessels crossing the strait. Such tolls are illegal under international law. Under the terms of the US-Iran memorandum, Iran is required to ensure toll-free passage for commercial vessels for at least 60 days, with full restoration of traffic within 30 days. Tehran has said it would charge ships fees to cover the cost of managing the waterway after the 60-day period. The German container shipping company Hapag-Lloyd has said it would be “fundamentally wrong” to charge vessels to pass through international waters. A company spokesperson added: “Tolls for infrastructure such as the Suez or Panama canals are different, as they reflect major infrastructure investments. That’s not the case in the strait of Hormuz.” The shipping industry is concerned that Iran charging fees could set a precedent for other key maritime channels that are bordered by several states, including the strait of Malacca – a narrow stretch of water between Singapore, Malaysia and Indonesia – or the Taiwan strait separating the island of Taiwan from mainland China.

NN: I am telling you the oil is not flowing.  And in the best case will be constrained for at least a year. 
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Iran closes Strait of Hormuz again. Iran is in control and starting its never ending demands

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — Iran dealt two quick blows to the interim agreement with the United States on Saturday, angered by Israel’s continued attacks in Lebanon, saying it had closed the Strait of Hormuz again and announcing that while its negotiators are going to Switzerland for talks, not much is likely to happen there.

First, Iran’s joint military command said the strait had been closed, citing Israeli attacks and U.S. “bad faith” and “its clear breach of its commitments” by failing to end the war.

The statement on state television warned that “if the aggression continues, subsequent steps have been planned.” Minutes later, the state broadcaster said the country’s negotiating team was heading to Switzerland, a trip that was originally planned for Friday but was canceled. Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Bagahei, Bagahei, however, signaled that little might happen until Iran feels the U.S. is living up to the deal. “This trip is therefore about demanding that the other side fulfill its obligations,” he said, adding that negotiations toward a final agreement will begin only once key commitments, including an end to fighting in Lebanon, are upheld On Friday, Israeli ambassador to Washington, Yechiel Leiter, said on X that Israel “remains firmly committed to an immediate ceasefire” if Hezbollah honors the agreement and ceases hostilities. On Saturday, Hezbollah said it had committed to the ceasefire but blamed Israel for violating it several times on Friday night. A statement issued by the group’s military wing said it would abide by the ceasefire but would also repel attacks by Israeli troops.

Neither Israel nor Hezbollah are signatories to the deal, which calls for a halt to military operations in Lebanon and for the country’s sovereignty to be respected.

With the fighting continuing, the accord is under threat and U.S.-Iran talks in Switzerland, planned to start Friday, have been delayed, with no new date announced. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has vowed to keep Israeli forces in southern Lebanon until any threat to Israel is eliminated. Hezbollah has refused to halt its attacks unless Israel commits to withdrawing from Lebanon, which Iran says is also a condition of the deal.

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Iran said to close Hormuz over Lebanon strikes…… It ain’t over just yet

Iran is closing the Strait of Hormuz due to “the Zionist regime’s relentless and continuous violation of the ceasefire in southern Lebanon,” for which Tehran holds Washington responsible, Iranian Mehr News revealed on Saturday, citing a decision by the Iranian Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters. Iran accused the US of “blatant breach of promise and breach of contract in not implementing the first paragraph of the end-of-war agreement [memorandum of understanding (MoA)].” Furthermore, Tehran protested the presence of the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) in southern Lebanon, urging its immediate withdrawal from the area. “The Strait of Hormuz will be closed to vessel traffic … if the aggression continues, further steps will be planned and taken to force the enemy to fulfill its obligations,” the headquarters was quoted as saying.

NN: See the Trick Hezbollah attacks Israel  at Iran’s command with 75 rockets and drones supplied by Iran. Israle defends itself and King Iran uses its power to close the straight. Blackmail! Iran will do what it wants as long as its able to hold 20% of the worlds oil hostage. The only solution is to end Irans reign of terror

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Iran said to warn of exit from US talks over Lebanon strikes

Iranian officials warned they may leave negotiations with the United States if Israel continues military operations in Lebanon, according to Saudi news channel Al-Hadath. The talks between Iran and the US were scheduled to begin in Switzerland but were delayed. Meanwhile, Pakistani Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi traveled to Iran and is expected to meet Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi as part of Islamabad’s mediation efforts. Sources told the news agency that Lebanon has emerged as the main sticking point( It seems they forgot about the NUKES and ICBM’) in the negotiations and added that, if Iran agrees, a senior Pakistani delegation will head to Switzerland.

NN: Iran is in the catbird seat!  They are squeezing Trump like a lemon to get everything they want. A Major military failure. Once the US could not open the straights and was not willing to take control of the coast line with troops on the ground Iran won! Trumps Waterlou!

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US said to reassure Iran over Israel’s Lebanon escalation…… Trump: Iran is finished, will get no money

The United States has informed Iran that Israel will not escalate its attacks in Lebanon any further in an attempt to reassure Tehran and bring it back to the negotiating table to discuss Iran’s nuclear program, CNN reported on Friday, citing a source familiar with the matter.

“Hezbollah violated the ceasefire. Israel has agreed to let it be, which was relayed to the Iranians, and it’s up to Hezbollah to stop,” the source said, according to the report.

The report follows both US Vice President JD Vance and the Iranian delegation delaying their trip to Switzerland, with previous reports claiming that Tehran postponed nuclear talks with Washington until it receives guarantees that Israel will stop its hostilities in Lebanon. Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said his country’s forces will remain in the security zone in southern Lebanon “as long as necessary,” while Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir warned that “all of Lebanon must burn.”

NN:  As Iran consolidates its victory over  America it will demand more and more. They have a super weapon. Iran controls the straights and 20% of the worlds daily supply
Trump: Iran is finished, will get no money

United States President Donald Trump said on Friday that Iran is “finished,” claiming that the Middle Eastern country will not get any money, “not ten cents.” “We didn’t meet out of desperation, Iran did. They are FINISHED,” Trump said in a post on Truth Social. “The War has diminished Iran! It doesn’t, any longer, have an Air Force, a Navy, Antiaircraft Equipment, Radar, or practically anything else, and yet the Dumocrats say that Iran is better off now than it was four months ago. Can you imagine getting away with that?” he added. The US president’s remarks echo his previous claims that reports of Iran receiving $300 billion from Washington are “Fake News,” after several Republican lawmakers criticized the memorandum of understanding with Iran for allegedly paving the way for the US to help Iran rebuild after the war.

NN: Complete disarray. Iran is in control and their will be hell to pay
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IRGC warns US against deal violations….Iran said to halt US talks until Lebanon strikes end.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) warned the United States on Friday against violations of the memorandum of understanding (MoU) between their countries, stressing that it stands “ready to impose a much greater historical defeat on them.” In an official statement, the IRGC insisted that the enemy, as it described the US, “has been defeated on the battlefield.” It also described the most recent conflict as the “history-making mission of the Iranian nation,” when the “warriors of Islam” managed to prevent the enemy from “erasing Iran from the map.

” In turn, the enemy was forced to turn to a position of “requesting and begging for understanding and negotiation, and has knelt before the greatness of our nation.”

The IRGC also thanked Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei and God for their guidance during the operation.

Iran said to halt US talks until Lebanon strikes end

Iran is postponing negotiations with the United States in Switzerland until it receives guarantees that the hostilities in Lebanon will end, CNN reported on Friday, citing a diplomat with knowledge of the matter. “The Iranians have asked for guarantees that hostilities in Lebanon will end, as outlined in the signed agreement,” the diplomat was quoted as saying. He added that “mediators are currently working to resolve the issue,” without specifying when the talks may continue. Yesterday, US Vice President JD Vance urged both Israel and Hezbollah to refrain from attacks. US President Donald Trump noted that he expects a “complete ceasefire on all fronts.”

NN: Once Iran showed Trump their would be no regime change, he could not defend Gulf state oil assets from drone attacks, could not protect US military bases in the region. could not protect ships from entering or exiting the straight he folded like a paper bag. Now they got him by the balls. And he will be their bitch. 

 

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U.S-Iran Deal Won’t Lead to Plunging Oil Prices

The uncertain pace of supply recovery in the Middle East and the continued rapid drawdowns of global inventories make the case that oil price volatility would drag on during the 60-day U.S.-Iran negotiation window, David Fyfe, Chief Economist at Argus Media, told CNBC on Thursday. As the U.S. and Iran formally signed an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices continued their slide this week and Brent Crude was as trading at around $77 per barrel in Asian trade on Thursday, as the market hopes for a quick recovery of the lost oil supply. Brent Crude prices fell to below $80 per barrel for the first time since March, but some analysts think oil has become oversold, especially amid lingering uncertainties about pretty much everything surrounding the return of Middle Eastern supply.

The memorandum of understanding to launch 60-day negotiations, extendable with mutual consent, means nothing has been resolved between the U.S. and Iran.

It’s not clear how long the expected imminent reopening of the Strait of Hormuz will take—Iran has to clear mines from the chokepoint, while Middle Eastern producers cannot return the 12 million barrel per day of production they had shut in “at the flick of a switch,” Argus Media’s Fyfe told CNBC. “An awful lot of questions about just how quickly supply can be returned to the market” remain, the economist said.

Moreover, global oil stocks are very low and the market is currently in a deficit. “It wouldn’t take much for prices to spike again,” Fyfe said, commenting on the uncertainties about how quick supply could return.

Global oil stocks are drawing and will continue to draw at a pace of about 2.5 million bpd in the third quarter even with a gradual return of supply, adding to price volatility, according to Fyfe. “Don’t expect this to be a one-way trade in terms of crude prices going further down,” the economist told CNBC.

NN: I want to be crystal clear here. This drop in oil prices is a buyers gift from the market manipulators Their is only 20 million barrels on ships to come out of the straights when they open . Deficit from the shutdown is over 900 million barrels. It will take 450 days IF they can RAISE PRODUCTION by 2 MBPD. Reality is it will at best 1 year to return to 2025 production levels never mind increase production. Which means the oil market will be undersupplied for years into the future.
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EIA Weekly Petroleum Data

 

Summary of  for the week ending June 12, 2026

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 8.3 million barrels from the previous week. At 418.2 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 6% below the five-year average for this time of year. U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 17.2 million barrels per day during the week ending June 12, 2026, which was 230 thousand barrels per day more than the previous week’s average. Refineries operated at 96.7% of their operable capacity last week. Gasoline production increased last week, averaging 10.1 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel production decreased, averaging 5.2 million barrels per day. U.S. crude oil imports averaged 5.1 million barrels per day last week, decreased by 754 thousand barrels per day from the previous week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged about 5.7 million barrels per day, 7.2% less than the same four-week period last year. Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 738 thousand barrels per day, and distillate fuel imports averaged 127 thousand barrels per day. Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 0.9 million barrels from last week and are 6% below the five-year average for this time of year. Finished gasoline inventories slightly increased, while blending component inventories decreased last week. Distillate fuel inventories increased by 1.0 million barrels last week and are about 13% below the five-year average for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories increased by 3.0 million barrels from last week and are 36% above the five-year average for this time of year. Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 7.9 million barrels last week.
Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 20.6 million barrels per day, up by 3.3% from the same period last year. Over the past four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied averaged 8.9 million barrels per day, down by 1.1% from the same period last year.
Distillate fuel product supplied averaged 3.7 million barrels per day over the past four weeks, up by 5.5% from the same period last year. Jet fuel product supplied was down 0.2% compared with the same four-week period last year.