Author: BlackMask Financial

Israel will soon respond to Iran’s missile attack on October 1, Israel’s Channel 13 reported on Monday, citing an unnamed United States security official. No further details were provided. Previously, Israel vowed to retaliate against Iran amid ongoing speculations about whether the potential attack would target the country’s oil fields. Today marks the anniversary of the beginning of the conflict between Israel and Hamas in Gaza which also led to a significant escalation with Hezbollah in the Israel-Lebanon border, culminating in the assassination of the militant group’s leader Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut and Iran’s missile attack on Israel. NN: The plan is to sell into the Israel attack on Iran

United States Vice President and Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris said in an interview set to be broadcast on Monday that the US needs to help Israel to “defend itself” from the threats posed by Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran. “When we think about the threat that Hamas, Hezbollah… Iran present, I think that it is without any question, our imperative to do what we can to allow Israel to defend itself against those kinds of attacks,” Harris said in a preview of the CBS’ 60 Minutes.  “The aid that we have given Israel allowed Israel to defend itself against 200 ballistic missiles that were just meant to attack the people of Israel,” she added, referring to Iran’s recent missile attack on the country, which it launched in response to Israel’s bombing of Beirut that killed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah.

Walz: Iran at the heart of disruption in Middle East

Democratic vice-presidential candidate Tim Walz claimed in an interview with Fox News on Sunday that Iran is “at the heart of” the crisis in the Middle East, asserting that Tehran’s “proxies … bring disruption throughout the region.” “We have been clear Israel has the right to defend itself. We’ve always stood in that position,” Walz insisted and pointed out that it was Hamas that started the conflict by killing “over 1,200 innocent Israelis” and taking 46 Americans hostage. “We have always said we reserve the right to protect American troops, our allies in the region, and that there is consequences for Iran,” he added. The comments come amid Israel’s intensified attacks on Gaza and Lebanon and threats it would target Iran in response to Tehran’s strikes on the country earlier this week.  NN: These 2 WOK JOKES  will sell out Israel faster than a Hamas terrorist will rape and torture a 12 year old Jewish girl.

Oil pared gains after President Joe Biden sought to discourage Israel from attacking Iran’s oil fields.
West Texas Intermediate rose 0.9% to settle above $74 a barrel on Friday, after earlier surging as much as 2.5%. The advance faded after Biden told reporters at the White House, regarding Israeli’s potential retaliation against Iran for its recent missile strike, “If I were in their shoes I would think of other alternatives than attacking oil fields.”
Crude still soared 9.1% this week — the biggest weekly advance since March 2023 — as the escalation of hostilities raises the possibility of disruption to Middle East oil supplies. While Israel and Iran, as well as Tehran’s proxies in Lebanon, Gaza and Yemen, have been facing off for the past year, this week’s flare-up is stoking fears of an all-out conflict that could drag in other countries. Iran fired a barrage of missiles into Israel earlier this week after Israel stepped up its offensive against Tehran-backed Hezbollah, including by sending troops into southern Lebanon. The Group of Seven nations has called on countries in the region to “act responsibly and with restraint.”

The Middle East accounts for about a third of the world’s crude supply. Iran has been pumping about 3.3 million barrels a day in recent months, making it the No. 3 producer in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries.

SEB AB’s Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst said “While probabilities for worst-case scenarios are very low, everyone is still biting nails for what will happen in the coming days as we await the retaliatory attack by Israel on Iran,”

Citigroup Inc. has estimated that a major strike by Israel on Iran’s export capacity could take 1.5 million barrels of daily supply off the market. If Israel struck minor infrastructure, 300,000 to 450,000 barrels may be lost. There’s also concern that Tehran might raise the stakes by targeting energy infrastructure in neighboring states or supply routes such as the critical Strait of Hormuz.

Clearview Energy Partners said an interruption of flows through the waterway at the mouth of the Persian Gulf could drive crude $13 to $28 a barrel higher. NB: that puts Brent over $105 a barrel.

ANZ Group Holdings Ltd An attack by Israel against Iran’s oil facilities is the “least likely” option. Such a move would upset Israel’s partners, including the US, and may also induce a more severe response from Tehran, analysts Daniel Hynes and Soni Kumari said in a report.

Bridgeton Research Group. reported commodity trading advisers, which largely rely on trend-following algorithms, flipped to a net long position in Brent by Friday, compared with being net short by about 55% on Tuesday, according to proprietary data.

Cayler Capital’s  Brent Belote said “The underlying physical market is not reflecting the $7 rally we have seen over this past week,” said  . “This may give a great opportunity to be short should cooler heads prevail.”

Options markets are flashing warning signs as investors bet that oil could rise further. West Texas Intermediate calls, which profit from price gains, were at the widest premium to the opposite puts in 2 1/2 years as of Thursday’s close. Implied volatility has also spiked. NB: a lot of the stupid money has gone long oil. The  crisis has also started to ripple through to the shipping sector, with earnings for oil tankers rallying since the most recent escalation. Iran appears to have moved some of its vessels away from a key oil loading terminal.

So all this begs the Question WHERE WILL Israel attack?

We have spent the past few days analyzing the possible targets. First of all Iran’s nuclear facilities are off the table for now. Its impossible for Israel to pull this off without Americas assistance. And creepy Joe Biden is  dead set against it. Is a go when Trump gets reelected president.

So its down to Iran’s  oil infrastructure doable by Israel alone.  Below our  target list and the potential impact on or oil trade:

The extent of the market impact depends on the chosen targets and scale of a possible attack. Our market intelligence comes down to four sites of  oil strategic importance come to mind.

1. Kharg Oil Terminal, situated on Kharg Island, 15 miles off Iran’s northwestern coast. It handles over 90% of the country’s global crude oil exports. It is heavy defended by the Russia SU400 anti aircraft missile system. If this target is selected and successful its good for a $5.00 a barrel increase in a knee jerk reaction.
2. Kish Islands Is a cluster of oil terminals in the Southern province of Hormozgan. It also has two free trade zones on Kish and Qeshm Islands. Kish is also home of the Iranian oil bourse — the only exchange of its kind that does not trade oil and derivatives in U.S. dollars. A insignificant target exporting less than 10% of Iran’s production.
3.  Abadan Refinery for domestic consumption. Located across Shatt Al-Arab River on the border between Iraq and Iran. The refinery’s production capacity is  estimated to be producing around 400,000 bpd. As Iran’s oldest processing facility — originally built in 1909 by Anglo-Persian oil (which later became BP) — it services around 25% of Iran’s domestic fuel demand.
4. Mahshahr Oil Terminal, an oil port located on the Khor Musa Channel. It stores and shifts products from the Abadan Refinery, and serves as an engineering and jetty construction hub for Iran.

Should the Abadan Refinery be targeted, it may cripple Iran’s domestic fuel supply chain. It being knocked offline  does not carry any significant international implications

NN: For further information see BlaskMask Market News and Commentary titled: THE SAFEST BET

Hezbollah leader Hashem Safieddine, expected to succeed Hassan Nasrallah, has been unreachable since an Israeli airstrike in Beirut targeted an underground bunker, according to three Lebanese security sources on Saturday. The strike hit Hezbollah’s intelligence headquarters in the southern suburbs of the city. Rescue efforts have been hindered by ongoing airstrikes in the area, making it challenging to confirm Safieddine’s fate. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) confirmed the attack on Hezbollah’s intelligence hub but did not disclose who was inside the bunker. NN: A job to die for

Fawzia Amin Sido was sold by the terror group to a Gazan man in 2014; now 21, she has been reunited with her family in Iraq

Yazidi woman Fawzia Amin Sido (R), who was kidnapped by ISIS in Iraq in 2014 and then transferred to Gaza, Oct. 3, 2024, seen back in Iraq after being rescued recently by Israeli security forces. Iraq made no official mention of Israel’s role. (Iraqi Ministry of Foreign Affairs) A Yazidi woman who was kidnapped from Iraq by ISIS in 2014 at the age of 11 and trafficked to the Gaza Strip has been rescued and reunited with her family. The rescue and return home of Fawzi Amin Sido was announced separately by the foreign ministries of Israel and Iraq. Israel’s foreign ministry said Sido was taken from her family in 2014 amid ISIS attacks on Yazidi communities in Iraq, as the terror organization known for its brutalities took control of vast swaths of the country. She was then sold off to a Gazan man who was visiting Iraq at the time. Israeli security forces recently extracted Sido and returned her home. In a later statement, the Israel Defense Forces, said that Sido was rescued in a complex operation coordinated by the IDF’s COGAT and the US Embassy in Jerusalem, together with “other members of the international community.” The IDF said that the “terrorist who had been holding her” was recently killed, apparently in an Israeli strike during the fighting in Gaza, allowing her to flee to a hiding place in Gaza. “The young girl was extracted from the Gaza Strip in recent days in a secret operation through the Kerem Shalom crossing. After crossing into Israel, she was taken to Jordan via the Allenby Crossing and then on to her family in Iraq,” the IDF said.

Former United States President and Republican nominee in the 2024 presidential election Donald Trump criticized incumbent President Joe Biden for his statement that Israel should avoid attacking Iran’s nuclear facilities, stating that the answer should have been to “hit the nuclear first and worry about the rest later.

“”If they’re gonna do it they’re gonna do it but we’ll find out whatever their plans are,” Trump said during a campaign event in North Carolina about Israel’s possible retaliation against Iran. The former president also noted that the destructive power of nuclear weapons “is the biggest risk we have,” while adding “we have to be totally prepared.”

‘The President Should Blow That Country To Smithereens’: Donald Trump Reacts To Iran’s Israel Strike

NN: Something BIG is about to happen

Iran considers targeting Israeli oil refineries and gas sites if it is attacked by Israel, the semi-official Iranian news agency SNN on Friday quoted Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps deputy commander Ali Fadavi as saying. According to the media outlet, Al Fadavi warned Israeli authorities against making a “mistake,” stressing that Tehran will “target all its energy sources, stations, refineries and gas fields.” He pointed out that Iran has the capacity to attack Israel’s power stations and refineries “all at once.” Iran’s warnings come after Israeli officials vowed that the country will retaliate against Iran after the latest missile attack, ensuring that the response will be strong an

The threat to Israel’s energy and gas facilities is significant, as such infrastructure is critical to the country’s economy and energy security. Any strikes on these facilities could disrupt supply chains and have global market implications, particularly as oil and gas markets remain sensitive to geopolitical unrest. This conflict also raises concerns for other global players, such as India, which has stakes in West Asian stability. India has called for dialogue and diplomacy to prevent further escalation, but with the situation deteriorating rapidly, the risk of a broader regional war is increasing.

NN:  Israeli officials said  that a strategic strike on Iran’s energy infrastructure would have the biggest economic impact, sending shockwaves through oil markets.

The escalating conflict in the Middle East, if it goes out of hand, risks dealing a severe blow to monetary policy as it would lead to a surge in oil prices, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey told the Guardian in an interview published on Thursday. “Geopolitical concerns are very serious,” Bailey told the newspaper. International crude oil prices have been on the rise this week after Iran’s missile attack on Israel earlier in the week, as markets are awaiting the Israeli response.  Fears of a broader war in the Middle East have materially grown this week. The biggest worry is, of course, Israel targeting Iranian oil infrastructure, which analysts expect it to do.

“The next turn in this retaliation spiral may very well involve oil – via the degrading of Iran’s oil capacity or Iran’s proxies attacking oil and gas shipping from the Persian Gulf,” according to Piper Sandler analysts, as quoted by CNBC.

The market fears that oil supply from the Middle East could be affected in case of a wider conflict directly involving Iran, or if Tehran moves to block the most important oil route in the world, the Strait of Hormuz. “From the point of view of monetary policy, it’s a big help we haven’t had to deal with a big increase in the oil price,” the Bank of England Governor told the Guardian. “But obviously we’ve had that experience in the past, and in the 1970s, the oil price was a big part of the story.” “You have to continuously watch this thing, because it could go wrong,” Bailey said, referring to the situation in the Middle East.

Iran’s Oil Tankers Flee Biggest Export Terminal Fearing Israeli Attack

Iranian oil tankers have moved away from Kharg Island, Iran’s biggest oil export terminal, amid fears of an imminent Israeli attack on the most important crude export infrastructure in Iran. Satellite images and tanker tracking companies have detected the major exodus of Iranian tankers away from Kharg Island, which handles about 90% of Iran’s all oil exports, CNBC reports.

“Their empty VLCC supertankers vacated the country’s largest oil terminal, Kharg Island, yesterday,” TankerTrackers.com said. The vessel-tracking service noted that “crude oil loadings continue, but all of the extra vacant shipping capacity has been removed from the anchorage of Kharg Island.” “This is the first time we see anything like this since the 2018 sanctions round,” TankerTrackers.com said. Satellite imagery captured two weeks ago by the European Space Agency’s Copernicus Sentinel-1 mission showed a number of very large crude carriers in the waters around Kharg Island, CNBC says. But satellite images of the same area from October 3 showed that no tankers can be seen around Iran’s most important oil export terminal, according to CNBC. The removal of vacant shipping capacity from Kharg Island suggests that Iran could be bracing for an Israeli attack on its oil infrastructure. The oil market is also awaiting the Israeli response to the Iranian missile attack on Israel earlier this week. Oil prices were up by 1.5% early on Friday and on track for a strong weekly gain amid reignited tensions in the Middle East. Most analysts say that the OPEC spare capacity, concentrated in Saudi Arabia and the UAE, would be enough to compensate for an Iranian loss of supply.

An even more significant disruption to supply from the Middle East could lead to triple-digit oil prices. But analysts currently believe attacks on oil infrastructure in other producers in the region or the closure of the Strait of Hormuz are low-probability events.

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) announced on Friday that they killed Mohammad Rashid Sakafi, the head of Hezbollah’s communication networks. According to the military, he was targeted in one of the recent Beirut airstrikes. The IDF described Sakafi as being close to top Hezbollah officials and having “a lot of experience and authority in the organization,” having held the position since 2000. He was allegedly in charge of communication between different units and formations within Hezbollah to ensure a “continuous flow of information,” including in emergencies.

Khamenei: Iran won’t delay nor rush action on Israel

WASHINGTON — President Biden said Thursday that the US is “discussing” the possibility of Israel bombing Iranian oil facilities as payback for a volley of nearly 200 rockets fired at the Jewish state on Tuesday — causing a spike in global crude prices.

Biden said the oil strike option was under consideration when asked directly by a reporter as he left the White House.

“We’re discussing that. I think that would be a little … anyway,” the retiring 81-year-old president said, trailing off as he departed the White House for a day trip to Florida and Georgia to tour damage from Hurricane Helene. NN:$200 Brent here we come