Author: BlackMask Financial

The escalating conflict in the Middle East, if it goes out of hand, risks dealing a severe blow to monetary policy as it would lead to a surge in oil prices, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey told the Guardian in an interview published on Thursday. “Geopolitical concerns are very serious,” Bailey told the newspaper. International crude oil prices have been on the rise this week after Iran’s missile attack on Israel earlier in the week, as markets are awaiting the Israeli response.  Fears of a broader war in the Middle East have materially grown this week. The biggest worry is, of course, Israel targeting Iranian oil infrastructure, which analysts expect it to do.

“The next turn in this retaliation spiral may very well involve oil – via the degrading of Iran’s oil capacity or Iran’s proxies attacking oil and gas shipping from the Persian Gulf,” according to Piper Sandler analysts, as quoted by CNBC.

The market fears that oil supply from the Middle East could be affected in case of a wider conflict directly involving Iran, or if Tehran moves to block the most important oil route in the world, the Strait of Hormuz. “From the point of view of monetary policy, it’s a big help we haven’t had to deal with a big increase in the oil price,” the Bank of England Governor told the Guardian. “But obviously we’ve had that experience in the past, and in the 1970s, the oil price was a big part of the story.” “You have to continuously watch this thing, because it could go wrong,” Bailey said, referring to the situation in the Middle East.

Iran’s Oil Tankers Flee Biggest Export Terminal Fearing Israeli Attack

Iranian oil tankers have moved away from Kharg Island, Iran’s biggest oil export terminal, amid fears of an imminent Israeli attack on the most important crude export infrastructure in Iran. Satellite images and tanker tracking companies have detected the major exodus of Iranian tankers away from Kharg Island, which handles about 90% of Iran’s all oil exports, CNBC reports.

“Their empty VLCC supertankers vacated the country’s largest oil terminal, Kharg Island, yesterday,” TankerTrackers.com said. The vessel-tracking service noted that “crude oil loadings continue, but all of the extra vacant shipping capacity has been removed from the anchorage of Kharg Island.” “This is the first time we see anything like this since the 2018 sanctions round,” TankerTrackers.com said. Satellite imagery captured two weeks ago by the European Space Agency’s Copernicus Sentinel-1 mission showed a number of very large crude carriers in the waters around Kharg Island, CNBC says. But satellite images of the same area from October 3 showed that no tankers can be seen around Iran’s most important oil export terminal, according to CNBC. The removal of vacant shipping capacity from Kharg Island suggests that Iran could be bracing for an Israeli attack on its oil infrastructure. The oil market is also awaiting the Israeli response to the Iranian missile attack on Israel earlier this week. Oil prices were up by 1.5% early on Friday and on track for a strong weekly gain amid reignited tensions in the Middle East. Most analysts say that the OPEC spare capacity, concentrated in Saudi Arabia and the UAE, would be enough to compensate for an Iranian loss of supply.

An even more significant disruption to supply from the Middle East could lead to triple-digit oil prices. But analysts currently believe attacks on oil infrastructure in other producers in the region or the closure of the Strait of Hormuz are low-probability events.

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) announced on Friday that they killed Mohammad Rashid Sakafi, the head of Hezbollah’s communication networks. According to the military, he was targeted in one of the recent Beirut airstrikes. The IDF described Sakafi as being close to top Hezbollah officials and having “a lot of experience and authority in the organization,” having held the position since 2000. He was allegedly in charge of communication between different units and formations within Hezbollah to ensure a “continuous flow of information,” including in emergencies.

Khamenei: Iran won’t delay nor rush action on Israel

WASHINGTON — President Biden said Thursday that the US is “discussing” the possibility of Israel bombing Iranian oil facilities as payback for a volley of nearly 200 rockets fired at the Jewish state on Tuesday — causing a spike in global crude prices.

Biden said the oil strike option was under consideration when asked directly by a reporter as he left the White House.

“We’re discussing that. I think that would be a little … anyway,” the retiring 81-year-old president said, trailing off as he departed the White House for a day trip to Florida and Georgia to tour damage from Hurricane Helene. NN:$200 Brent here we come

The prices of oil futures kept surging on Thursday as investors remained laser-focused on tensions in the Middle East and United States President Joe Biden’s latest comments on the matter. When asked by reporters at the White House if he would support Israel striking Iran’s oil facilities, he responded: “We’re discussing that.” After Iran’s ballistic missile attack on Israel on Tuesday and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s vow to retaliate, concerns regarding the supply of the commodity from the oil-rich region have risen. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for November deliveries gained 5.24% to sell at $73.77 per barrel at 12:38 pm ET. At the same time, Brent for December settlements increased by 4.95%, going for $77.55 a barrel.

NN: The best is yet to come. Get your ducks in a row. You still have time

United States President Joe Biden said on Thursday that Israel’s counterstrike against Iran is not expected to happen today. “First of all, we don’t allow Israel, we advise Israel. And nothing is going to happen today,” he told reporters when asked if he would allow Israel to retaliate against Iran. Additionally, the US head of state stressed that his administration is discussing with Israel its plans to strike Iran’s oil facilities in response to Tehran’s previous missile attack. Previously, Biden noted that he would not support a potential Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities as a retaliatory measure.

NN: My vote is blast their nuclear facilities…… Apologize…. Then start peace negotiations and in the middle of the meetings blast All their oil assets. And this time don’t say I’m sorry.  

The weapons that really saved Israel this week are its Arrow 2 and Arrow 3 anti-ballistic missile systems . The Arrows are the crown jewels of Israel’s Aerial Defence Array, a multi-layered air defence system. They can shoot down missiles in space.

The point is Tuesday’s attack could have easily filled Israel’s morgues if its air defences hadn’t worked.

It was nothing short of a miracle only one person died when he was crushed by falling debris in the occupied West Bank.

Spy satellites spotted Iran’s missile forces fuelling their missiles and intercepted orders to prepare the weapons for launch. Just 90 minutes later Israel warned its citizens to shelter. And minutes after that the skies over Israel erupted with explosions. Matthew Savill, the military science director of the London-based Rusi think tank, said most of the Iranian Hyperspnic missiles appeared to be Emad and Ghadr-1 medium-range ballistic missiles, which are variants of the Shahab-A barrage of 182 ballistic missiles  took as little as 12 minutes to get to Israel.  Hypersonic missiles can manoeuvre at five times the speed of sound making them far harder to intercept. The Shahab-A barrage of 182 ballistic missiles are around 16 metres long, weigh around 19 tonnes and have a range of up to 2,000km. They are designed to blast to the edge of space before re-entering the Earth’s atmosphere, breaking into smaller parts and plummeting towards their targets at many times the speed of sound. Iran also claimed it fired much newer “hypersonic” Fattah 1 missiles. Hypersonic missiles can manoeuvre at five times the speed of sound making them far harder to intercept. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard claimed the Fattah 1s were aimed at Israel’s air defences. Specifically, at the Arrow-2 and Arrow-3 sites. The launches were detected immediately by infra red satellites and long range radar systems. That data was fed directly to the air defense command and control points — AI powered brains — which make split-second calculations about the missiles’ trajectories and most likely targets. Israel’s  AI powered air defense systems  decided  instantly which interceptors to fire at which missiles after ranking the targets in terms of priority. Tuesday’s targets appeared to include the headquarters of Israel’s Mossad spy service in Glilot, Tel Aviv, and two major airbases, Tel Nof and Nevatim. Iran tried to overwhelm the Arrow system by “saturating” it with missiles. Israel said the attack was “ineffective”.  Videos captured “multiple impacts” especially at Nevatim airbase doing little damage.  A small  number of the intercepts were made at the last second, in the so-called “terminal phase”.

The question now is how Israel responds.

The spiral of slaughter seems destined to continue. Ambassador Hotovely vowed “action”.

She said: “Iran will pay the price . . . There will be a severe retaliation coming from Israel.”

NN Multimedia File: 

Fire away your bet shot

Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the week ending September 27, 2024

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 3.9 million barrels from the previous week. At 416.9 million barrels, U.S. crude oil
inventories are about 4% below the five year average for this time of year. U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 15.7 million barrels per day during the week ending September 27, 2024, which was 662 thousand barrels per day less than the previous week’s average. Refineries operated at 87.6% of their operable capacity last week. Gasoline production decreased last week, averaging 9.6 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel production decreased last week, averaging 4.8 million barrels per day. U.S. crude oil imports averaged 6.6 million barrels per day last week, increased by 171 thousand barrels per day from the previous week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged about 6.6 million barrels per day, 4.6% less than the same four-week period last year. Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 540 thousand barrels per day, and distillate fuel imports averaged 194 thousand barrels per day. Total motor gasoline
inventories increased by 1.1 million barrels from last week and are about 1% below the five year average for this time of year. Finished gasoline inventories increased last week while blending components inventories decreased last week. Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 1.3 million barrels last week and are about 8% below the five year average for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories increased by 0.3 million barrels from last week and are 7% above the five year average for this time of year. Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 0.9 million barrels last week.
Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 20.1 million barrels a day, down by 1.0% from the same period last year. Over the past four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied averaged 8.7 million barrels a day, up by 4.9% from the same period last year. Distillate fuel product supplied averaged 3.8 million barrels a day over the past four weeks, down by 3.3% from the same period last year. Jet fuel product supplied was up 1.3% compared with the same four-week period last year

irans blnder could be their final demise

Benjamin Netanyahu vowed to retaliate against Iran after it fired about 200 ballistic missiles at Israel in a severe escalation of hostilities between the adversaries that world powers fear could spiral into a Middle East-wide war. The barrage started around 7:30 p.m. Israel time on Tuesday, hours after the US warned an Iranian assault was imminent. The Israel Defense Forces said most of the missiles were intercepted and reports indicated only one person, who was in the West Bank, was killed. The US, whose warships helped shoot down the projectiles, similarly said

the attack “appears to have been defeated and ineffective.”

Still, the salvo was even more dramatic and dangerous than the barrage of 300 missiles and drones Iran fired at Israel in April. This time, Tehran gave less warning and its rockets penetrated far deeper into Israeli territory, with cities including Tel Aviv and Hod Hasharon being hit and having their night-time skies lit up. Iran said its latest move was a reprisal for Israel’s devastating attacks on Lebanon-based Hezbollah, Tehran’s most important proxy militant group. On Friday, Israel assassinated Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, in an air strike on Beirut. That came after days of intense bombing that killed several of the group’s commanders, while on Monday night Israel stepped up its campaign by sending troops into southern Lebanon.  Iran said it aimed for military targets on Tuesday and that the operation was a success. Its state media claimed 90% of the missiles hit their targets, something the initial US and Israeli analysis suggested was incorrect. In some parts of Iran, crowds gathered to celebrate.

“Iran made a big mistake tonight, and it will pay for it,” Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, said. “The regime in Iran does not understand our determination to defend ourselves and our determination to retaliate against our enemies.”

NN: BlackMask Pod cast

Iran is dead meat

The The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) spokesperson Daniel Hagari claimed Iran’s attack was “serious” and “will have consequences” during a press conference after situational assessment on Tuesday. “We are on heightened alert on defense and offensive, we will protect the citizens of Israel. This [missile] fire will have consequences. We have plans, and we will act in the time and place that we choose,” Hagari added. “At this stage we are still carrying out an assessment [of the attack], but we are unaware of casualties,” he further said. Residents were notified a short while ago that they can leave bomb shelters, after an hour. Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) spokesperson Daniel Hagari claimed Iran’s attack was “serious” and “will have consequences” during a press conference after situational assessment on Tuesday. “We are on heightened alert on defense and offensive, we will protect the citizens of Israel. This [missile] fire will have consequences. We have plans, and we will act in the time and place that we choose,” Hagari added. “At this stage we are still carrying out an assessment [of the attack], but we are unaware of casualties,” he further said. Residents were notified a short while ago that they can leave bomb shelters, after an hour.

NN: I see soon Iran’s oil fields burning