(Bloomberg) — Nasdaq 100 futures climbed and Treasury yields fell, signaling a rebound may be in store for technology stocks after Thursday’s selloff sparked by rising inflation bets. Contracts on the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average also edged higher after U.S. shares slid from a record. The yield on the 10-year Treasury benchmark slipped back below 1.7%, a threshold it hadn’t breached since January 2020, and the dollar was steady. WTI crude oil held above $60 a barrel after a 7% plunge. A calmer tone is ending a volatile week in which Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell fanned inflation fears by messaging he’s willing to run the economy hot to help it recover from the fallout of Covid-19, and he’s not unduly concerned by rising yields “Economic recovery is on its way and we have central banks around the world very committed to easy monetary policy,” said Jun Bei Liu, portfolio manager at Tribeca Investment Partners, who sees value stocks benefiting. “Fundamentals of the equity market are looking very strong.” Meanwhile, the Stoxx Europe 600 index declined, led by banks and retailers, while bond yields across the region retreated. China’s CSI 300 share gauge slumped as chilly U.S.-China talks soured the mood, while Japan’s Topix rallied and the Nikkei 225 sank after the Bank of Japan said it will focus purchases of exchange-traded funds on the former gauge. France announced a lockdown of areas including Paris to fight the pandemic, casting a cloud over Europe’s outlook amid an uneven vaccine roll out even as the European Central Bank signaled continued monetary support. Traders were bracing for quadruple witching Friday, a major expiration of options and futures contracts that can exacerbate swings in asset prices. Elsewhere, a number of European nations will start using AstraZeneca Plc’s Covid-19 vaccine again after Europe’s drug regulator declared it safe. These are some of the moves in markets as of 9:49 a.m. in London: S&P 500 futures added 0.3%, after the benchmark closed down 1.5%.Nasdaq 100 Index futures rose 0.7%. The index fell 3.1%. The Stoxx Europe 600 index dropped 0.3%.The MSCI Asia Pacific index fell 0.7%.The MSCI Emerging Markets index retreated 1%. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index dipped 0.1%.The euro slipped 0.1% to $1.1902.The yen was at 108.78 per dollar, up 0.1%.The British pound was little changed at $1.3926. BondsThe yield on 10-year Treasuries dipped two basis points to 1.69%.Germany’s 10-year yield fell four basis points to -0.305%.The U.K. 10-year yield dropped five basis points to 0.827%.
Investors pour record money into equities even as bond yields rise: BofA
Fed Chair Powell to give speech on Monday, testify Tuesday and Wednesday
(Reuters) – Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak Monday at a Bank for International Settlements conference on innovation in the digital age, the U.S. central bank said on Thursday. On Tuesday, Powell will testify before the House of Representatives Financial Services Committee, and on Wednesday he will testify before the Senate Banking Committee, on the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act, the Fed said. The appearances come after the Fed signaled Wednesday that it will hold rates at their current near-zero level through 2023, even as policymakers boosted their forecasts for economic growth and inflation. Nick Note: I want to be clear here. Hedge funds are short the US stock market and taking a assing. They are spinning the inflation HYPE like i have ever seen before. Everyone who know this game know that a reflating is a spot even reflecting prices adjusting and initial over demand as the supply pipelines fill again. THEIR IS NO INFLATION AND THEIR WILL NOT BE ANY. Their is no more bullish event for a stock market then a economic boom. PENT UP DEMAND and a record savings rate will create a post war kind of boom and stock market rally like never seen before. I hope you join me in the greatest rally ever…… Make no mistake this coming boom will end in the biggest bust ever.. they always do. .. And be warned it will come like a thief in the night!
Wall Street ends sharply lower, hit by bond yields and COVID-19 worries
(Reuters) – Wall Street ended sharply lower on Thursday, with the Nasdaq tumbling 3%, hit by rising Treasury yields and fresh worries about the coronavirus pandemic in Europe. Losses in U.S. stocks accelerated after France’s prime minister imposed a month-long lockdown on Paris and several other regions due to the health crisis. It was the Nasdaq’s steepest one-day drop since Feb. 25. The S&P 500 energy sector index tumbled 4.7% as oil prices fell, in part due to worries about rising COVID-19 cases in Europe. “That last hit was from news of the Paris lockdown. It wasn’t received that well,” said Joe Saluzzi, co-manager of trading at Themis Trading in Chatham, New Jersey. “Here in the United States, we anticipate this big reopening and the virus is looking good, but we are not looking outside of the U.S., and it’s not all good.” The Russell 1000 value index, which is heavily comprised of cyclical stocks such as financials and energy, lost 0.6%, while the Russell 1000 growth index, which includes technology stocks, dropped more than 2%. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasuries crossed 1.75% to hit a 14-month high a day after the Fed projected the strongest growth in nearly 40 years as the COVID-19 crisis winds down. The Fed also repeated its pledge to keep its target interest rate near zero for years to come.. “The Fed just saying they are not going to raise rates until 2023 really means nothing,” said Tim Ghriskey, chief investment strategist at Inverness Counsel in New York. “The Fed is on the sidelines, but if bond yields keep going up, that is what really hurts the economy.” Apple Inc and Amazon.com Inc both dropped more than 3%. Tech and other growth stocks are particularly sensitive to rising yields because their value rests heavily on earnings far into the future, which are discounted more deeply when bond yields rise. A recent $1.9 trillion spending stimulus sparked fears of rising inflation and contributed to the jump in longer-end Treasury yields. Underscoring the staggered recovery in the labor market, data showed the number of Americans filing for jobless benefits unexpectedly rose last week. A separate report indicated the Philly Fed business index jumped more than expected, to its highest level since 1973. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.46% to end at 32,862.3 points, while the S&P 500 lost 1.48% to 3,915.47. The Nasdaq Composite dropped 3.02% to 13,116.17. The S&P 500 and the Dow both closed at record highs on Wednesday. Accenture rose 1% after the IT consulting firm raised its full-year revenue forecast and reported second-quarter revenue above analysts’ estimates, as more businesses used its digital services to shift operations to the cloud. Dollar General Corp dropped 4.65% after the retailer forecast annual same-store sales and profit below estimates, indicating that a pandemic-fueled rush for lower-priced goods may be waning faster than expected. AMC Entertainment climbed more than 3% after the movie theater operator said it would have 98% of its U.S. locations open from Friday. Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 3.69-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 3.42-to-1 ratio favored decliners. The S&P 500 posted 85 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 213 new highs and 28 new lows. Volume on U.S. exchanges was 12.8 billion shares, compared with the 14.2 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days. Nick Note: Forget about it. Today’s market is nothing. Stocks are getting ready to roar back to significant new highs…
Nasdaq slumps as bond yield surge hurts tech valuations
(Reuters) – The S&P 500 receded from a record high on Thursday while the Nasdaq shed more than 1% as a spike in U.S. bond yields accelerated a move out of growth stocks and into companies viewed as likely to outperform as the economy recovers. The Russell 1000 value index, which is heavily comprised of cyclical stocks such as financials and energy, added about 0.2% while the Russell 1000 growth index, which includes technology stocks, dropped about 1.4%. That rotation helped lift the Dow Jones Industrial Average to an intraday record high, led by UnitedHealth Group and Goldman Sachs Group, both up more than 2%. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasuries crossed 1.75% to hit a 14-month high a day after the Fed projected the strongest growth in nearly 40 years as the COVID-19 crisis winds down, and also repeated its pledge to keep its target interest rate near zero for years to come.. “The Fed just saying they are not going to raise rates until 2023 really means nothing,” said Tim Ghriskey, chief investment strategist at Inverness Counsel in New York. “The Fed is on the sidelines, but if bond yields keep going up, that is what really hurts the economy.” Apple Inc and Amazon.com Inc dropped more than 2%. Tech and other growth stocks are particularly sensitive to rising yields because their value rests heavily on earnings far into the future, which are discounted more deeply when bond yields rise. A recent $1.9 trillion spending stimulus sparked fears of rising inflation and contributed to the jump in longer-end Treasury yields. Underscoring the staggered recovery in the labor market, data showed the number of Americans filing for jobless benefits unexpectedly rose last week. A separate report indicated the Philly Fed business index jumped more than expected, to its highest level since 1973. In midafternoon trading on Thursday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.49% at 33,176.67 points, while the S&P 500 lost 0.37% to 3,959.43. The Nasdaq Composite dropped 1.46% to 13,328.11. The S&P 500 financial sector index, sensitive to the economic outlook, rose almost 2%, while the industrial index climbed almost 1%. The technology index fell 2.3%. Accenture jumped about 1.9% after the IT consulting firm raised its full-year revenue forecast and reported second-quarter revenue above analysts’ estimates, as more businesses used its digital services to shift operations to the cloud. Dollar General Corp dropped more than 5% after the retailer forecast annual same-store sales and profit below estimates, indicating that a pandemic-fueled rush for lower-priced goods may be waning faster than expected. AMC Entertainment jumped almost 5% after the movie theater operator said it would have 98% of its U.S. locations open from Friday. Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 1.69-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.51-to-1 ratio favored decliners. The S&P 500 posted 84 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 208 new highs and 20 new lows.Nick Note: Let them try to tickle the dragons tail. This will end badly…… the FED is in firm control. Their is no inflation… Its a reflation and everyone of them end up in a stock market boom. We shall see what we shall see
Europe rises, auto rally lifts German DAX to record high
https://youtu.be/5CRohs_SItY
Powell Holds Dovish Line ZERO rates through 2023
(Bloomberg) — Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and his colleagues continued to project near-zero interest rates at least through 2023 despite upgrading their U.S. economic outlook and the mounting inflation worries in financial markets.
The decision, which came on a volatile day for investors with Treasury yields surging ahead of the announcement, masked a growing number of officials who saw liftoff before then — though Powell stressed this remains a minority view.
“The strong bulk of the committee is not showing a rate increase during this forecast period,” Powell told a virtual press conference Wednesday following a meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, adding that the time to talk about reducing the central bank’s asset purchases was “not yet.” Seven of 18 officials predicted higher rates by the end of 2023 compared with five of 17 at the December gathering, showing a slightly larger group who see an earlier start than peers to the withdrawal of ultra-easy monetary policy, according to fresh quarterly Fed projections. “Indicators of economic activity and employment have turned up recently, although the sectors most adversely affected by the pandemic remain weak,” the FOMC said in its policy statement. “Inflation continues to run below 2%.”
The Fed expects that a bump in inflation this year will be short-lived. Officials saw their preferred measure of price pressures slowing to 2% next year following a spike to 2.4% in 2021, according to the projections. Excluding food and energy, inflation is forecast to hit 2.2% this year and fall to 2% in 2022.
Ten-year Treasury yields reversed their earlier rise as Powell spoke and U.S. stocks closed higher. Asked about the recent move up in yields, Powell pushed back against the idea the Fed should lean against the market, noting that the current stance of Fed policy, including its asset purchase program, was appropriate.Massive fiscal support and widening vaccinations that will help reopen the economy have buoyed investor expectations for rate increases and inflation, propelling Treasury yields higher as the central bank and federal government keep adding stimulus. The target range of the benchmark federal funds rate was kept at zero to 0.25%, where it’s been since last March. Wednesday’s FOMC decision was unanimous. “The Federal Reserve continues to hold the course, maintaining the glide path for both rates and asset purchases which it established last year, and does not appear to be close to altering its trajectory anytime soon.” U.S. central bankers left asset purchases unchanged at $120 billion a month and repeated that this pace would be maintained until “substantial further progress” is made on their employment and inflation goals. Powell told reporters that the Fed would signal well in advance when that threshold was on track to being achieved. Powell and his colleagues met as the economy continues to improve. Job gains picked up last month and President Joe Biden signed an additional $1.9 trillion of pandemic aid into law on March 11. Vaccinations continue apace, allowing states to start easing lockdown restrictions that could release a torrent of consumer spending. The economy remains far from the Fed’s goals, though. Even with 379,000 jobs added to payrolls in February, 9.5 million fewer Americans have jobs compared with a year ago and inflation remains well below the Fed’s 2% target. “This particular downturn was a direct hit on the part of the economy that employs many minorities,” Powell said. Still, prospects for stronger growth have ignited some concern about higher inflation, contributing to a rise in 10-year Treasury yields in recent weeks. Powell told lawmakers in testimony last month that the economy is still has a long way to go before there’s any risk of overheating. They also upgraded forecasts for economic growth and the labor market, with the median estimate for unemployment falling to 4.5% at the end of 2021 and 3.5% in 2023, while gross domestic product was seen expanding 6.5% this year, up from a prior projection of 4.2%. Christopher Waller, who joined the Board of Governors in late December, contributed projections for the first time this month. Nick Note: Did you think that pig we are fucking in the BlackJack trade is going to make it easy for us. Bottom line the markets will zoom with the raped pig squealing all the way!!
Dow jumps over 200 pts, Treasury yields rise after Fed update
U.S. stocks erased earlier losses and jumped higher Wednesday after the Federal Reserve said it sees no interest rate hikes through 2023 and that it will let inflation run hotter than usual to ensure a full economic recover U.S. stocks erased earlier losses and jumped higher Wednesday after the Federal Reserve said it sees no interest rate hikes through 2023 and that it will let inflation run hotter than usual to ensure a full economic recovery. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 210 points. The S&P 500 rose 0.5%. The Nasdaq Composite wiped out losses to traded 0.8% higher. The tech-heavy benchmark fell 1.5% earlier in the session as growth stocks got hit by surging bond yields again. While the Fed expects benchmark interest rates to remain near zero for the next two years, the central bank upgraded their economic outlook to reflect expectations for a stronger recovery from the pandemic-triggered recession. Gross domestic product is expected to grow 6.5% in 2021 before cooling off in later years. Expectations for core inflation also moved higher, with the committee now looking for a 2.2% gain this year as measured by personal consumption expenditures. The central bank’s stated goal is to keep inflation at 2% over the long run. “It sounds like the perfect scenario for investors and the outlook and you’re seeing market response to this very optimistic view,” said Michael Arone, chief investment strategist at State Street Global Advisors. “Monetary policy is going to remain largely accommodative almost regardless of what happens with interest rates, inflation and asset prices.” Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in a press conference that the Fed would need to see a material and sustained move in inflation above 2% before considering changes to its current easy policy stance. “We do expect that we’ll begin to make faster progress on both labor markets and inflation as the year goes on because of the progress with the vaccines, because of the fiscal support that we’re getting,” Powell said. “We expect that to happen, but we’ll have to see it first.” The 10-year Treasury yield came off its high of the day following the central bank’s update, rising 2 basis points to 1.64%. Earlier in the session, the benchmark rate jumped to 1.689%, hitting a level unseen since late January 2020. Higher rates have been hurting growth-oriented companies particularly hard as they erode the value of future cash flows.
“With the 2023 median plot still hugging the floor, stocks and bonds are rising again,” said Anu Gaggar, senior global investment analyst at Commonwealth Financial Network. “This is like a Goldilocks market – strong economic growth, moderately higher inflation, rebounding earnings, and very easy monetary conditions.”
Rising interest rates have been an overhang for stocks in recent weeks, specifically the tech sector. The jump in yields has forced a shift into value stocks from growth, pushing the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 to hover near record highs. Shares of Disney erased earlier losses and gained 0.8% after CEO Bob Chapek told CNBC that California’s two Disneyland theme parks will reopen on April 30. McDonald’s climbed 2% after Deutsche Bank upgraded the stock to buy from hold. Nick Note: The fed is running party central….. The only way they are raising rates if wrong again hedge funds capture their families and hold them hostage
Americans Have $1.7 Trillion to Burn in Revenge-Spending Binge
(Bloomberg) — Shoppers are out for vengeance. A year into a pandemic that’s devastated lives, jobs and the economy, those who are lucky enough to have disposable income are ready to go out and splurge — even if they still have nowhere to go in that stunning dress or those brand new sneakers. Some are calling this “revenge spending.” U.S. retail sales are near record highs and employment and employment and vaccinations are on the rise. Americans have amassed a massive stockpile of excess savings — Bloomberg Economics estimates it to be about $1.7 trillion since the beginning of the pandemic through January. And that’s about to be bolstered by a new round of stimulus payments. As the economy reopens, consumer spending over the next two quarters is likely to be the strongest such period in at least 70 years with a rebound in services leading the way, according to economists at Wells Fargo & Co. “A lot of the snapback in spending will come from those more leisure expenditures — your discretionary expenditures,” said Shannon Seery, an economist at Wells Fargo. Revenge spending was seen as early as last April in China after the government began easing back to normalcy after the nation was the epicenter of the coronavirus pandemic in its early days. The impact on companies was clear: U.S. jeweler Tiffany & Co.’s China sales surged 90% in May from the year prior, while Hermes, the French luxury label known for its $10,000 handbags, raked in $2.7 million in one day from a store reopening in Guangzhou. China has been recovering ever since, even as the virus continues to rage across Europe and North America. The reopening of the nation’s domestic travel corridors sparked a tourism revival, with locals visiting destinations like Macau and Hainan. They’ve been spending so much there that brands like Ralph Lauren Corp., Estee Lauder Cos. and Coach are all scrambling to open more stores. There’s universal hope that there’ll be a similar fervor in the U.S. too.
While the U.S. economy will likely reopen gradually over the course of 2021, the federal government is already starting to distribute stimulus checks. Research suggests one-time payments boost spending more than steady payments that lead to a higher income. “This round of stimulus is coming at the same time that the economy is properly reopening,” said Michelle Meyer, head of U.S. economics at Bank of America Corp. “If you have a lot in your bank account already, you don’t have very much debt to pay off, you probably do feel more comfortable spending the stimulus check.” E ven the previous round of $600 stimulus checks, which were less than half the size of the incoming $1,400 payments, helped drive a January spike in discretionary purchases. U.S. retail sales jumped by the most in seven months amid increased spending on clothes, electronics, home furnishings and more. Department stores saw a nearly 21% increase in sales from the prior month. And there’s room to grow, since sales at many types of stores and restaurants remain below their pre-pandemic levels. While spending has eased from January’s breakneck pace — in large part due to severe winter weather — the new round of direct checks will give fresh support to consumers. The $1,400 payments could give restaurant sales a lift for up to seven weeks, according to an analysis by Bloomberg. It may take slightly longer for the wealthiest to shell out cash like they once did. The top 10% of earners account for nearly half of personal outlays in the U.S., according to calculations by Wells Fargo. These consumers, who have been forced into saving because of social distancing, are likely to come out in full force as the health crisis subsides and herd immunity is reached, Meyer said. Almost half of U.S. consumers, meanwhile, said they’d buy little luxuries in the next six months. Over a third said they’d go in on even bigger, more expensive products, according to a survey from Accenture. U.S. retailers from discount clothing stores to luxury jewelry boutiques have been waiting for this for months. Signet Jewelers Ltd., owner of Jared and Kay Jewelers, had hoped it’d come in time to bolster Valentine’s Day sales in February. That didn’t work out, but it’s better late than never. The CEOs of Abercrombie & Fitch Co., Coty Inc. and TJX Cos., which operates TJ Maxx, have each mentioned the prospect of revenge shopping boosting business in the coming months. Poshmark Inc., an online resale marketplace, said sales of summer dresses doubled in February from a year earlier. CEO Manish Chandra said it’s an early sign that the population is ready to get out and spend. “That to me tells us that we are getting ready for something,” said Chandra. “I think we’re all ready for that. America’s definitely ready and the world seems to be ready as well.” Nick Note: their are only so many chocolatties and Cheesecake Factory meals people can buy. MOST of this money is headed into the stock market.. Wait ans see.
US opens mostly lower ahead of Fed interest rate decision
US stocks were set for a mostly lower open Wednesday as traders looked ahead to the release of the Federal Reserve’s policy statement. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures gained 41 points or 0.1%, S&P futures slipped 15 points or 0.4%, and Nasdaq futures declined 138.50 points or 1.1%. Following a two-day meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee is scheduled to release its policy statement at 2 pm. While the central bank is not expected to take action on interest rates, traders will keep an eye on changes to the Fed’s economic projections as well as some color around the selloff in US treasury markets. Across the Atlantic, a string of European countries announced a temporary pause in inoculations due to safety concerns over Oxford-AstraZeneca’s COVID-19 vaccine. Oil prices fell, with global benchmark Brent Crude down 1.1% and US West Texas Intermediate down 1%, as the impending halt in vaccinations in Europe dented demand outlook for crude. At 8:30 am, data showed US housing starts fell 10.3% to 1.421 million annual rate in February compared with estimates for a 1.562 million rate, while permits fell 10.8% to 1.682 million versus estimates for 1.75 million, according to Bloomberg data. In other world markets, Japan’s Nikkei closed 0.02% lower, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng closed 0.02% higher, and Shanghai Composite closed 0.03% lower. Meanwhile, UK’s FTSE 100 fell 0.6% and Germany’s DAX index was 0.1% down in Europe’s early afternoon session. On the winning side, shares of Land’s End (LE) were 5.1% higher pre-bell after the company reported fiscal Q4 results that topped Street expectations. Timber Pharmaceuticals (TMBR) shares surged 5% after the company said its development partner has signed an exclusive license and supply deal with Desitin Arzneimittel GmbH in Europe for Pascomer for the treatment of facial angiofibromas associated with tuberous sclerosis complex. On the losing side, Sunlink Health Systems (SSY) slumped 22% as the company unveiled a $2 million expansion plan for Trace Regional Hospital. Oil States (OIS) shares fell 10% after the company said it will raise $135 million in an offering of convertible senior notes. Nick Note: The Fed is NOT going to takes its foot of the accelerator. The economy HAS NOT RECOVERED. It will and a economic recovery means two things. Plenty of corporate profits. And plenty of flush with cash millennial desperadoes with a pocket full of mumbo dumbo buying shares of anything and everything.