The European Union has been unable to agree on a comprehensive oil embargo on Russian crude, hindered by internal disagreements on the timeline of the phasing out. Should the draft see adoption, we might be in for another supply squeeze as OPEC+ has clearly indicated it values consistency over abrupt moves. Should the United States push forward with its NOPEC bill, the willingness of the oil group to satiate global demand might fall even further. In a meeting that lasted only 13 minutes, OPEC+ countries have agreed to increase their June 2022 production target by 432,000 b/d, avoiding any talk about sanctions on Russia and indicating global supply/demand picture is more or less balanced. Despite Germany coming to embrace a Russian oil embargo, the European Union has still been unable to agree on a phase-out of Russian crude imports as most dependent countries like Hungary or Slovakia keep on asking for exemptions. A US Senate committee passed the NOPEC bill that was presented with bipartisan support, potentially revoking the sovereign immunity protecting OPEC countries and Middle Eastern NOCs from lawsuits, as high gasoline prices and inflation compel US lawmakers to take more aggressive action. The Indian government defended its continued purchases of Russian crude, having bought more crude in April 2022 than over the totality of 2021, saying they were a part of a wider strategy to diversify away from the Middle East and keep fuel prices at bay. NN: the oil complex is in complete confusion. No one knows how to price future barrels. Their are a lot of pieces in play. The short term price action is very uncertain. Our read in the mid term is much higher prices…BUT sanctions, the war and China lock downs are all opposing forces.