Thomas Barkin, president of the Richmond Federal Reserve, says it’s hard to get a true read on the state of the U.S. economy because of conflicting signals. “The strength of consumption and the labor market might be saying ‘hold’ or even ‘raise rates,’” Barkin said at an economic outlook conference in Baltimore Tuesday. But “the softness of investment, inflation and the bond market might be saying ‘lower rates.’” The Federal Open Market Committee voted last week to lower the Fed’s key benchmark interest rate for the third time this year to a range between 1.5% and 1.75%. But it also made it clear that it does not expect another rate cut to occur this year unless there is material evidence showing the U.S. economy is deteriorating. Barkin participates in the Fed’s policy discussions, but he can’t vote on monetary policy. Uncertainties surrounding the trade war between the U.S. and China, which has been going on for 16 months now, are part of the reason for the recent cuts. Barkin is keeping a close eye on the effect lower interest rates have on fighting the side effects of the trade tiff.

“I don’t discount the idea that we could talk ourselves into a recession — particularly if the uncertainty begins to affect consumer confidence and spending,” he said.

Some sectors of the economy seem just fine, though. The monthly jobs report for October that came out Friday beat expectations with 128,000 jobs added, according to Labor Department data. This quelled some fears that a recent slump in manufacturing and business investment would leak into other areas of the economy. Barkin thinks a positive development in the U.S.-China trade war would be an even bigger boost to the economic expansion that is now over a decade long because it would “build business confidence, build consumer confidence and lead to increased investment, spending and hiring.” “American businesses are creative,” Barkin said. “Give them the rules—almost any set of rules — and they will make things happen.” NN: We are seeing violent swings in the stock market indices. On the biggest volume i have ever seen. World currencies (except for the Russian Ruble ) are collapsing against the dollar. GOLD the “inflation hedge” is down $400 dollars from its March peek. It’s settled business gold is NOT a hedge against inflation.  The yeild cureve is all pover the map and the Wall Street pudits are losing trillion of dollars in what is suppoe to be safe secure retierment savins that was entrusted to them. I am a season balls to the wall lottery ticket speculator is having a tough time. The secret i know is that inflation has peeked and the FED is about to over tighten. They have done it every time. Think back to 20% interest rate under Volcker. Oil is seeing huge drops down 30% off its recent high. Gasoline prices are seeing its fastest drop ever. Commodity prices from lumber to cooper to grains are plunging in price. If i am right and happen to GUESS lucky, understanding the hysteria in the market,  could be very very lucrative. Trading against the street (which i have done for a lifetime) is very dangerous  and IF we guess wrong (most likely scenario) we will take a wipe out