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Institutional traders are building long positions in crude oil

  • Kemp: institutional traders are building their positions in crude oil again.
  • Institutional traders also bought more oil in anticipation of the Trump presidency, which most seem to believe would involve a tightening of sanctions against Iran that would affect oil supply.
  • Some price forecasters are starting to revise their outlook for oil following OPEC’s decision to output.

OPEC+’s decision to delay a rollback of production cuts agreed last year has rekindled trader interest in the commodity with a view to a tighter supply picture in 2025. The latest news out of China could reinforce that interest, giving oil prices a chance to stage a last-minute recovery this year. OPEC+ agreed last week to postpone the start of bringing back production to the market to April 2025, with the full return to pre-agreement output levels seen no earlier than the start of 2027. The decision was prompted by stubbornly depressed prices, largely resulting from a trader perception of weak Chinese demand—and OPEC’s own outlook for global demand. This year, the cartel has revised its global oil demand projections five times, all downwards. The latest revision came just week, with OPEC revising its estimate by a sizable 210,000 barrels daily to 1.6 million bpd. For context, early in the year, OPEC expected global oil demand to grow by some 2.25 million bpd this year. Yet there are continued constraints on OPEC+ production, despite recovering output in Libya, and China’s latest import figures and news about a fresh package of stimulus being considered by Beijing to accelerate economic growth. Amid these developments, institutional traders are building their positions in crude oil again, energy market analyst John Kemp reported this week, citing hedge fund purchases totaling the equivalent of 29 million barrels of crude during the first week of December. The bulk of this, 26 million barrels, was in Brent crude, with the remainder in West Texas Intermediate. As a result, the total exposure of speculators to crude oil now stands at 157 million barrels, Kemp reported, which is the highest since early October. Traders’ renewed attraction to crude oil is hardly a surprise after months of price depression despite the OPEC+ cuts. The prolonged weakness of prices was repeatedly attributed to demand signals from China, with the overall perception being that the world’s largest importer has reached the end of its demand growth and from now on, the decline will be irreversible. This proved wrong last month, when Chinese crude oil imports reversed months of weakness to jump 14% over October levels, to 11.81 million barrels daily. The November figure will not be able to reverse the steady decline that China’s imports have demonstrated this year, which means the pressure on prices will remain for the rest of 2024, but the new year could bring changes, following Beijing’s clear intention to inject additional stimulus fuel into the economy to reach its growth targets. Yet institutional traders also bought more oil in anticipation of the Trump presidency, which most seem to believe would involve a tightening of sanctions against Iran that would affect oil supply, tightening the market further. Indeed, based on Trump’s track record with Iran, chances are that the new administration would seek to intensify the sanction pressure on Tehran, with the country’s oil industry the obvious target. In this context, some price forecasters are starting to revise their outlook for the commodity. Morgan Stanley recently updated its 2025 outlook for Brent, revising the price forecast higher on the grounds that the delay in OPEC+ supply cut unwinding would result in a smaller than previously expected global overhang. Citi, on the other hand, expects the overhang to be significant, to the tune of 800,000 bpd, which has given the bank reason to remain bearish on oil. The expectation of a supply overhang appears to be rather unanimous among analysts, with just a few suggesting the market could actually swing into a deficit in 2025 as demand surprises. It has already surprised, in fact. Although weaker than traders expected, China’s demand for oil remains on an upward trajectory—and that’s despite record-breaking EV sales that were supposed to sap that growth.

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Trump’s team plans potential strikes on Iran

United States President-elect Donald Trump’s team is considering various options that could halt Iran’s nuclear program, including preventive airstrikes, The Wall Street Journal reported on Friday citing sources.

According to sources familiar with the subject, Trump’s advisers are worried that economic pressure on Tehran might not be a sufficient deterrent, and military actions could be necessary. Following the most recent events in Syria, certain members of Trump’s team started to review military operations against Iran’s nuclear facilities as an option more seriously.

Nevertheless, all discussions are currently in the early stages. One source mentioned that Trump recently told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu he fears Iranians could produce a nuclear weapon “on his watch.”

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Israel targets key Hamas commander, 6 other members killed

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said on Thursday that over the past week, it had targeted and eliminated a senior Hamas commander along with six other militants in a series of airstrikes. The strikes, coordinated by the IDF and Israel Security Agency (ISA) killed Ammar Daloul, the alleged head of Hamas’ Manufacturing Department, and Jihad Yassin, a Company Commander in the Zeitoun Battalion. The attacks took place at a former school in Gaza City, which is said to be reused by Hamas as a command center. In addition to Daloul and Yassin, the IDF reported killing six more Hamas members, including a gunman involved in the October 7th massacre. Meanwhile, Palestinian officials stated that an Israeli airstrike killed eight members of one family in the Al Nusarait refugee camp.

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Katz: Israeli army to stay on Syrian side of Mount Hermon during winter

sraeli Defense Minister Israel Katz directed the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) to prepare for a stay at the peak of the Syrian side of Mount Hermon for the winter months, citing security concerns. “Due to what is happening in Syria, there is a huge security importance to our holding of the Hermon peak and everything must be done to ensure the IDF’s preparations in the area, to allow the troops to stay there in the difficult weather conditions,” a statement from Katz’s office showed. Katz previously instructed the military to take over the buffer zone separating Israel and Syria in response to ongoing unrest in the latter country.

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Trump: US to do ‘something great with crypto.’……… Crypto Coins will be Trumps undoing

United States President-elect Donald Trump assured on Thursday that his new administration will take significant steps to make the US the global leader in the crypto industry. “We’re gonna do something great with crypto,” Trump told CNBC at the New York Stock Exchange, adding that he does not want other countries, such as China, to take advantage of this industry’s potential. “Others are embracing it, and we want to be ahead,” he pointed out. Following Trump’s comments, Bitcoin advanced by 0.63% to go for $101,833 at 10:49 am ET, while Ethereum jumped 3.51%, selling for $3,969 simultaneously. NN: This will end in tears

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Netanyahu ready to agree to Gaza ceasefire, report

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told United States National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan on Thursday that Israel was ready to immediately implement the outline of a ceasefire in Gaza if Hamas agreed to approve the deal, according to Axios reporter Barak Ravid. Earlier, Sullivan embarked on a trip to Israel where he met with Netanyahu as a part of the Biden administration’s last-ditch effort to secure the hostage deal. It currently remains unknown whether Hamas is ready to agree to its terms, although Sullivan stated that the militant organization’s negotiating stance shifted after the conclusion of the ceasefire in Lebanon.

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Syrian rebel leader, after Assad’s ouster, tightens his grip on the state

  • Powerful Syrian faction brings its administration to Damascus
  • New PM says will govern until March, not clear what happens then
  • Diplomats cite concern over inclusiveness of process
  • UN Resolution calls for new constitution, elections
DAMASCUS/BEIRUT, Dec 12 (Reuters) – Rebel leader Ahmad al-Sharaa’s Islamist group is stamping its authority on Syria’s state with the same lightning speed that it seized the country, deploying police, installing an interim government and meeting foreign envoys – raising concerns over how inclusive Damascus’ new rulers intend to be. Since Sharaa’s Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) group swept Bashar al-Assad from power on Sunday at the head of a rebel alliance, its bureaucrats – who until last week were running an Islamist administration in a remote corner of Syria’s northwest – have moved into government headquarters in Damascus.
 The appointment of Mohammed al-Bashir, the head of the regional government in HTS’ enclave of Idlib, as Syria’s new interim prime minister on Monday underlined the group’s status as the most powerful of the armed groups that battled for more than 13 years to end Assad’s iron-fisted rule.
Although it was part of al Qaeda before breaking ties in 2016, HTS had reassured tribal leaders, local officials, and ordinary Syrians during its march to Damascus that it would protect minority faiths, winning broad approval. The message helped smooth the rebels advance and Sharaa – better known as Abu Mohammed al-Golani – has repeated it since Assad’s ouster.
 At the office of the Damascus governor, its walls exquisitely decorated with marquetry and stained glass, the man brought from Idlib to run affairs dismissed concerns that Syria was being moved towards an Islamic form of government.
“There is no such thing as Islamic governance. After all, we are Muslims and it’s civil institutions or ministries,” said Mohammed Ghazal, a bespectacled 36-year-old civil engineer with a thick beard who was raised in the United Arab Emirates and spoke in near perfect English.
 “We don’t have any problem with any ethnicity and religion,” he said. “The one who made the problem was the (Assad) regime.”
However, the way HTS has gone about shaping the new interim government – by bringing senior administrators from Idlib – has caused concern for some. Four opposition sources and three diplomats told Reuters they were concerned about the inclusiveness of the process so far.
Bashir has said he will only remain in power until March. But HTS – which remains classified as a terrorist group by the United States, regional powerbroker Turkey and other governments – has yet to spell out key details of the transition process, including its thinking on a new constitution. Sharaa, in a statement to Reuters on Wednesday, said he would dissolve the ousted regime’s security forces, close its prisons, and hunt down anyone involved in torture or killing detainees.
While Syrians celebrate the fall of Assad’s brutal police state, some are voicing fears about what may come.
Wissam Bashir, 28, speaking at a Damascus cafe, expressed concern “because of the things that I’m seeing … such as the new government, the spread of Islamic flags”. When he took office this week, Prime Minister Bashir appeared with two flags behind him – the green, black and white flag flown by opponents of Assad throughout the civil war, and a white flag with the Islamic oath of faith in black writing, typically flown in Syria by Sunni Islamist fighters. Asked whether Syria’s new constitution would be Islamic, he said “these details” would be clarified in the constitution-making process.
Mohammed Alaa Ghanem, a leading Syrian activist based in Washington and in touch with senior opposition figures, said HTS was being urged to “be smart and get the transition right, instead of letting the moment go to their heads by completely dominating the new government”. One diplomat in Damascus said HTS is the only faction meeting with foreign missions. “We are concerned – where are all the heads of the political opposition,” the diplomat said. “It would be a major signal to have them here, and they are not here.” NN: A terrorist  is a Terrorist… this will end badly 
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OPEC Cuts Oil Demand Projections A 5th Straight Month Deepest Cut Yet

OPEC has cut oil demand growth forecasts for 2024 and 2025 for a fifth straight month, with the latest cut so far the deepest. OPEC has cut 2024 demand growth by 210,000 barrels a day to 1.6 million barrels a day, 27% below its first estimate made in July, Bloomberg reported.

The OPEC secretariat said the revision takes “into account recently received bearish data” for the third quarter,” including “downward revisions to OECD Americas and OECD Asia Pacific.”

Different energy agencies have been issuing varying projections for oil demand growth. Last month, the Joint Organisations Data Initiative (JODI) released its latest oil market report. Following the release, StanChart worked out that global oil demand in September clocked in at 103.012 million barrels per day (mb/d), the fourth consecutive month global demand has exceeded 103 mb/d.  The y/y increase in demand in September was 1.136 mb/d, slightly below the average of 1.332 mb/d YTD but an improvement on August, when growth was just 0.631 mb/d. Previously, StanChart pointed out that oil demand growth, not absolute oil demand, is what has been slowing down from earlier post-pandemic years. Indeed, StanChart has noted that global oil demand has been setting a series of new all-time highs in the current year.  The International Energy Agency (IEA) has been among the most bearish energy analysts. Earlier in the year, the energy watchdog predicted that global demand for all fossil fuels will stop growing this decade at a time when supplies of oil and LNG are poised to continue growing. The IEA, however, has predicted this development will come as a major boon for consumers because electricity prices will start declining as renewables play a bigger role in our generation mix.

“The world is set to enter a new energy market context in the second half of this decade because underlying market balances for oil and gas are easing. Bar major geopolitical conflicts, we will be entering a period where prices will see significant downward pressures,”  IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said in an interview.

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EIA: US crude inventories down by 1.4M barrels

Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the week ending December 6, 2024

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 1.4 million barrels from the previous week. At 422.0 million barrels, U.S. crude oil
inventories are about 6% below the five year average for this time of year.  U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 16.7 million barrels per day during the week ending December 6, 2024, which was 251 thousand barrels per day less than the previous week’s average. Refineries operated at 92.4% of their operable capacity last week. Gasoline production increased last week, averaging 10.0 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel production decreased last week, averaging 5.2 million barrels per day. U.S. crude oil imports averaged 6.0 million barrels per day last week, decreased by 1.3 million barrels per day from the previous week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged about 6.8 million barrels per day, 2.5% more than the same four-week period last year. Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 464 thousand barrels per day, and distillate fuel imports averaged 154 thousand barrels per day. Total motor gasoline
inventories increased by 5.1 million barrels from last week and are about 4% below the five year average for this time of year. Finished gasoline and blending components inventories both increased last week. Distillate fuel inventories increased by 3.2 million barrels last week and are about 4% below the five year average for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories decreased by 3.0 million barrels from last week and are 7% above the five year average for this time of year. Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 0.9 million barrels last week. Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 20.1 million barrels a day, up by
0.9% from the same period last year. Over the past four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied averaged 8.6 million barrels a day, up by 1.4% from the same period last year. Distillate fuel product supplied averaged 3.6 million barrels a day over the past four weeks, down by 2.1% from, the same period last year. Jet fuel product supplied was up 7.4% compared with the same four-week period last year

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US Considers New Russia Oil Sanctions to Weaken Putin Ahead of Trump

  • Restrictions would also target Russia’s shadow tanker fleet
  • Biden looks for ways to sap Kremlin’s war machine in Ukraine

The Biden administration is weighing new, harsher sanctions against Russia’s lucrative oil trade, seeking to tighten the squeeze on the Kremlin’s war machine just weeks before Donald Trump returns to the White House. Details of the possible new measures were still being worked out, but President Joe Biden’s team was considering restrictions that might target some Russian oil exports, according to people familiar with the matter who asked not to be identified discussing private deliberations. That step was something Biden had long resisted over fears it could trigger a spike in energy costs, especially in the run-up to last month’s presidential election. But with prices for oil slipping amid a global glut and fears growing that Trump may seek to force Ukraine into a quick deal with Russia to end its nearly three-year-old war, the Biden administration is now open to more aggressive action, the people said. The deliberations highlight how Biden’s team is more willing to take risks in confronting Russia as it prepares to depart, especially with previous efforts to choke the Kremlin’s energy revenues yielding mixed results and average US gasoline prices hitting their lowest level since mid-2021. In its waning weeks, the administration has also moved to surge military and financial support to Ukraine amid questions about Trump’s commitment to continued US support. The US already bans imports of Russian oil but new restrictions on the exports of one of the world’s largest producers — which could involve singling out foreign buyers of its crude — would upend more than two years of policy set after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine began in February 2022. The administration was also weighing fresh sanctions aimed at the tanker fleet that Russia uses to transport its oil, the people said. The new limits on the so-called shadow fleet could be be unveiled in the coming weeks, according to the people. The European Union is planning similar measures on Russia’s shadow fleet before the end of the year. The bloc also is expected to target individuals involved in the trade.

Sanctioning Russia’s Tankers

A total of 106 tankers have been sanctioned for carrying Russian oil

Sources: US Treasury Department, UK Treasury, European Union Note: 21 tankers have been sanctioned by more than one entity

Spokespeople for the National Security Council and the Treasury Department declined to comment on Tuesday. One model for broader US sanctions could be to impose restrictions similar to those on Iranian oil. In that case, buyers of the oil face US punishment. Such a move would be fraught with risk, given that powerful countries including India and China are major consumers of Russian crude. Most immediately, such limits could spike oil prices, causing global economic strain. Crude futures have held to a tight range since mid-October, with international benchmark Brent trading below $75 a barrel, compared with more than $120 in the months after Russia’s invasion. It would also inflame tensions with adversaries and partners alike, whose help the US wants to limit exports of sensitive goods such as chips and other technology that fuel Russia’s war machine. While the moves would seek to capitalize on a softer oil market, they would also be aimed at ratcheting up the pressure on Russia before Trump takes office. The president-elect has pushed for negotiations to end the war in Ukraine, and current officials say they want to give the government of President Volodymyr Zelenskiy as much leverage as possible heading into any talks. With that in mind, squeezing President Vladimir Putin’s finances even further could strengthen Ukraine’s negotiating hand. There’s a chance Trump could unwind measures if he felt they had inflated oil prices, but that risks the potential political cost of looking weak or offering Russia concessions too soon.

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