Pete Hegseth, the defense secretary nominee, declared on Tuesday his support for Israel in “destroying” and “killing” every last member of Hamas. Addressing disruptions during his Senate confirmation hearing, where protesters accused him of being a Zionist, the defense secretary nominee stressed his support for Israel’s “existential defense” and Washington’s commitment to safeguarding it. “We will responsibly end wars to ensure that we prioritize our resources to reorient to larger threats,” Hegseth underlined while outlining his agenda if confirmed as defense secretary. NN: Finally the US military will be commanded by a man with a hairy set of balls. BYE by fagots and woke jokes
Israel, Hamas agree in principle to truce deal draft
A preliminary agreement for a ceasefire in Gaza, along with the release of hostages, has been tentatively reached. Should everything proceed smoothly, Israel and Hamas are expected to finalize the arrangement this week, according to statements from Arab, US and Israeli officials shared with CBS News. US and regional insiders indicate that if the remaining specifics receive approval and the Israeli government endorses it soon after, the deal’s execution could commence by this weekend, the media added. Previously, the Wall Street Journal noted that the involved parties were ironing out the last aspects of a ceasefire accord for Gaza, potentially ready for announcement as early as today.
Oil Prices Stable After Bearish EIA Report
Crude oil prices remained stable today after dipping on Tuesday following the release of the Energy Information Administration’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook.
In the outlook, the EIA predicted weaker oil prices this year and next, citing expectations that OPEC will roll back its production cuts and non-OPEC oil producers will continue raising their output at intensive rates.
As a result, Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate dipped on Tuesday, only to rebound later, with Brent crude returning above $80 per barrel and WTI inching closer to $79 per barrel. At the time of writing, Brent was trading at $80.17 per barrel, with WTI at $77.88 per barrel. In its Short-Term Energy Outlook, the EIA said it expected global oil production to add 1.8 million barrels daily this year and another 1.5 million barrels daily in 2026. In the United States, the EIA expects only a modest increase in oil production, from 13.2 million bpd last year to 13.5 million bpd, inching further up even more slowly in 2026, to 13.6 million barrels daily. The Permian will continued to be the driver of U.S. oil production growth, coming to account for more than half of the national total next year. In other plays, however, production is set to begin declining, the EIA said Consumption, however, is set to underwhelm, according to the EIA, with growth this year seen at 1.3 million barrels daily, or 200,000 bpd lower than projected production growth. This rate of growth will slow down further next year, the EIA predicted, to just 1.1 million bpd, led by Asia and specifically India. Not everyone is this gloomy on oil, however. For starters, the EIA itself noted that its forecast was compiled before the federal government slapped the latest sanctions on the Russian oil industry. These sanctions are widely seen as potentially curbing Russian oil exports, and as a result boosting prices by eliminating any surplus supply 0n the global market.
Netanyahu: Gaza deal matter of days or hours
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated Tuesday that the ceasefire and hostage deal in Gaza is a matter of “days or hours” as reported by Channel 12. The prime minister further explained that Israel is currently waiting for Hamas to respond to the agreement draft, adding that his condition for a permanent ceasefire is the safe return of all hostages. At the same time, Netanyahu stressed that the agreement will have several stages. He revealed that negotiations regarding the second stage will begin on January 16.
Russia Intent On Defying New U.S. Sanctions on Its Oil Industry
- The outgoing U.S. Administration on Friday slapped the most severe sanctions on Russia’s oil yet.
- Russia: new U.S. sanctions risk destabilising global markets.
- The sanctions have already started moving oil markets and the oil-purchasing strategies in Russia’s top crude oil customers, China and India.
Russia has slammed the new hefty U.S. sanctions on its oil industry and exports and vowed to move forward with major domestic oil and gas projects, claiming that it remains “a key and reliable player in the global fuel market.” The outgoing U.S. Administration on Friday slapped the most severe sanctions on Russia’s oil yet, designating two major Russian oil companies, Gazprom Neft and Surgutneftegas, as well as 183 vessels, dozens of oil traders, oilfield service providers, insurance companies, and energy officials. The sanctions on the oil companies are the first direct designations against Gazprom Neft and Surgutneftegas, which were sanctioned by the UK on the same day, too, as “the profits from these 2 companies are lining Putin’s war chest and facilitating the war,” as the UK government said. The latest sanctions are also cutting off Russia’s access to U.S. services related to the extraction and production of crude oil and other petroleum products. Secretary of the Treasury Janet Yellen commented that “With today’s actions, we are ratcheting up the sanctions risk associated with Russia’s oil trade, including shipping and financial facilitation in support of Russia’s oil exports.” In response to the sanctions, Russia’s Foreign Ministry said that the U.S. move “represents an attempt to inflict damage on the Russian economy at any cost, even at the risk of destabilising global markets. This move comes in the waning days of President Joe Biden’s lacklustre tenure in office.” “Naturally, Washington’s hostile actions will not go unanswered and will be taken into account as we shape our foreign economic strategy,” Russia said, adding that “Major domestic projects for oil and gas extraction, import substitution, oilfield services, and the construction of nuclear power plants in third countries will continue to move forward.” The Russian Foreign Ministry’s statement concluded with “Despite the convulsions in the White House and the manoeuvres of the Russophobic lobby in the West, seeking to drag the global energy sector into the US-initiated hybrid war against Russia, our country remains, and will continue to be, a key and reliable player in the global fuel market.” The sanctions have already started moving oil markets and the oil-purchasing strategies in Russia’s top crude oil customers, China and India. Oil prices jumped on Friday as the U.S. sanctions were announced, and Brent Crude broke above $80 per barrel to hit the highest level in three months. Indian refiners expect their supply of cheaper Russian crude to be severely crippled with the latest sanctions, refining sources in India told Reuters on Friday. India is now bracing for a major disruption to Russian oil supply, which is currently the single largest source of crude for the world’s third-largest oil importer. Alongside India, China could also lose a part of its cheap Russian crude supply, analysts say. “When it comes to buyers, China and India, in general, tend to steer clear of dealing directly with tankers and entities blacklisted by the US Treasury,” Matt Wright, lead freight analyst at Kpler, wrote in a note. The newly sanctioned tankers handled about 42% of Russia’s total seaborne crude exports. Over half of this volume was shipped to China, making up about 61% of China’s seaborne imports of Russian oil. Meanwhile, most of the remaining exports went to India, contributing to nearly a third of the South Asian nation’s total intake of Russian oil, according to Kpler’s analysis. Moreover, the new sanctions are expected to drive up Russian crude price differentials in China and India in the short term, potentially reaching parity with non-sanctioned grades of similar quality, Kpler’s Wright said. India and China have started to procure more crude from sources other than Russia and Iran, in view of the tightening U.S. sanctions on Russia and an expected clampdown on Iran’s oil exports from the incoming Trump Administration. The latest U.S.-sanctioned tankers are estimated to have transported nearly 900,000 barrels per day (bpd) of Russian crude oil to China in the past year, a Singapore-based trader told Reuters, adding that this supply is “going to drop off a cliff.”
Sinwar’s brother said to be new Hamas chief in Gaza
Slain Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar’s (pictured) younger brother, Mohammed Sinwar, has become the organization’s new leader in the Gaza Strip, the Wall Street Journal reported on Monday, citing Arab mediators involved in ceasefire negotiations. According to the report, Hamas officials declined to elect a new leader after Israeli forces killed Yahya Sinwar in October, and rather opted for establishing a collective leadership council. However, Hamas militants in Gaza did not accept this decision and united under the leadership of the younger Sinwar, who is currently striving to strengthen the militant group. Mohammad Sinwar became Hamas’ Khan Younis brigade commander in 2005 and he was the mastermind of the kidnapping of Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit in 2006, who later was exchanged for Mohammad’s brother Yahya, who was imprisoned in Israel. The younger Sinwar was believed to have been killed in 2014 until the Israeli military published a video in November 2023, showing Mohammad traveling in a car through a tunnel near the Erez crossing, at the northern border between Gaza and Israel.
Israeli FM confirms progress in ceasefire talks
Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar said on Monday that progress in negotiations on a Gaza ceasefire and the release of hostages had been made, confirming previous reports. “Israel wants a hostage deal. Israel is working with our American friends in order to achieve a hostage deal, and soon we will know whether the other side wants the same thing,” Saar stated at a press conference. The minister added that Israeli officials are cooperating with both outgoing President Joe Biden’s administration and incoming President-elect Donald Trump’s administration to reach a final agreement with Hamas. “I hope that within a short time we will see things happening, but it is still to be proved,” he said. NN: Their is no dealing with the devil
Oil Prices Jump to 4-Month High on Fresh U.S. Sanctions
Crude oil prices started the week with a gain that pushed Brent crude to the highest in four months following the introduction of a fresh package of sanctions against Russia by the Biden administration. The sanctions focused on Russia’s oil industry.
At the 4:00 AM est Brent crude was trading at $81.51 per barrel, with WT I was trading at at $78.50 per barrel, touching October 7th highs. Algo guys are the longest they have been since the April 12 peek at Brent $91.55. We know how that turned for the Algo stampede. By September 9th oil crashed to $68.50 and tens of billions were lost by AI Agos again.
The latest sanction package, reported to be the harshest yet, the U.S. Treasury imposed sanctions on Gazprom Neft and Surgutneftegaz, as well as on 183 tankers, many of them in the so-called shadow fleet Russia uses to ship its oil abroad without having to use Western vessels or insurance. “The new Russian sanctions from the outgoing administration are a net addition to at-risk supply, adding more uncertainty to the (first quarter) outlook,” RBC Capital Markets said in a note, as quoted by Reuters. Bloomberg reported that Chinese and Indian buyers of Russian crude were scrambling to weather the impact of the latest sanction package, as most Russian oil flows were redirected to these two countries after the start of the war in the Ukraine. According to analysts, the parting sanction move by the Biden administration would force Asian oil buyers to turn to the Middle East, Africa, and the Americas to replace lost Russian barrels. Shipping costs will increase as well. “Overall, the doubling of tankers sanctioned for moving Russian barrels could serve as a major logistical headwind to post-invasion crude flows,” RBC Capital Markets analysts said. The sanction package will affect vessels carrying some 1.5 million barrels daily in Russian crude. As a result, oil prices have soared and they might yet higher to go as there appears to be broad agreement that these are the harshest sanctions on Russian energy yet. “There is not a step in the production and distribution chain that’s untouched and that gives us greater confidence that evasion is going to be even more costly for Russia,” one Washington official said, as quoted by Reuters.
NN audio file….. Take a deep breath
Oil Hits 3-Month High Amid Sanctions
Oil settled at a three-month high as the US ratcheted up sanctions against Russia, adding to a run of bullish developments that have propelled crude to a strong start to 2025. Brent futures rose 3.7% to settle above $79 a barrel while West Texas Intermediate closed above $76. The sweeping sanctions target two firms that handle more than a quarter of Russia’s seaborne oil exports, as well as vital insurers and a vast fleet of tankers. Brent earlier surged 5% to top $80 as speculation about the measures rippled through the market.
President Biden opted to go big on energy sanctions his team has been considering over the past several weeks, which caught traders largely complacent about sanctions-related disruption risks,” said Bob McNally, founder of the Rapidan Energy Group and a former White House official.
Crude is up more than 6% this year, a robust start that has taken some market participants by surprise as many banks and agencies had forecast a significant supply glut that would weigh on prices. Now, Citigroup and Morgan Stanley have been among the first to increase price forecasts. Hedge funds have been getting increasingly bullish on crude in recent weeks, with money managers’ net-long positions in Brent at the highest in almost eight months. While the market had been anticipating additional sanctions on Russia, the potential scope of the restrictions was unclear, and targeting a large number of tankers threatens to significantly constrain the nation’s ability to access vessels. Traders had also been bracing for tougher sanctions on Iranian oil, which would tighten a market already facing dwindling US stockpiles. The tighter fundamental picture, alongside the cold weather and lower Russian seaborne exports, has buoyed the recent rally.Under increasingly bullish conditions, “no one wants to be short here,” said Dennis Kissler, senior vice president for trading at BOK Financial Securities. Brent’s prompt spread — the price difference between its two nearest contracts — widened to as much as $1.02 in backwardation, a bullish pattern. A month ago, the spread stood at just 29 cents. Meanwhile, WTI’s prompt spread rallied to 85 cents, helping propel a measure of market volatility to the highest in more than a month.
Still, market participants caution the rally may be short-lived. Technical gauges, such as the relative strength index, signal that crude futures are overbought, and some traders warn the sanctions could be reversed once Trump takes office.
Oil Price Rising Today…… Not for long
Crude is climbing today amid reports that the U.S. may unveil a broader sanctions package targeting Russian tankers.
Rebecca Babin, a senior equity trader for CIBC Private Wealth in New York, said in an interview on Friday when asked why the oil price is rising today. “This has raised concerns among Indian buyers, who have been the primary purchasers of Russian barrels,” Babin added. “While this story has been on traders’ radar for the past week, the potential scope of the sanctions appears larger than initially anticipated,” Babin continued. “Additionally, cold weather across the U.S. is boosting heating oil demand and could tighten supply due to freeze-offs. Breaking above the key $75 resistance level in WTI has likely triggered systematic fund buying, further propelling the rally,” Babin went on to state.
Bill Farren-Price, the Head of Gas Research at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, why the oil price is rising today in a separate interview on Friday, he told Rigzone he thinks it’s “a combination of cold winter fuel oil and diesel demand, a continued response to OPEC+’s decision in early December to extend cuts, and concerns that Trump 2.0 could mean fresh sanctions on producers”.
Tamas Varga, an analyst at PVM Oil Associates, the same question in another interview on Friday, Varga said, “cold weather in Europe and the U.S. raises expectations of distillate stock draw”. “Existing and planned sanctions on Russia and Iran forces China to look for alternative crude oil supply. It helps Brent. And so does low Cushing stocks, which supports WTI and makes U.S. crude oil exports uneconomic,” Varga added.
Ahmed Ben Salem, an oil and gas analyst at ODDO BHF, told Rigzone, “I guess it is due to lower exports from Russia and Iran and probable lower surplus in 2025 than initially expected”.
Samer Hasn, a senior market analyst at XS.com, noted that crude oil prices are on track for a second straight day of gains. Hasn highlighted in the analysis that Brent and WTI were both up more than two percent today, “hitting their highest levels since October last year”. “Oil price gains come amid support from a set of positive factors, including favorable weather forecasts, continued announcements of measures to support the Chinese economy, in addition to the potential increase in supply restrictions from Iran and Russia,” Hasn stated in the analysis.
The Trump transition team, the Press Service and Information Department of the Russian Government, the Chinese government, the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and ministry officials at the Indian Ministry of Power for comment. Trump-Vance Transition Spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt told Rigzone, “families have suffered under the past four years’ war on American energy, which prompted the worst inflation crisis in a generation”. “Voters re-elected President Trump by a resounding margin giving him a mandate to implement the promises he made on the campaign trail, including lowering energy costs for consumers,” Leavitt added.
“When he takes office, President Trump will make America energy dominant again, protect our energy jobs, and bring down the cost of living for working families,” Leavitt continued.
In a Stratas Advisors report by the Stratas team late Monday, the company revealed that, “for the upcoming week”, it thought that oil prices would “get a boost from the continuation of support from the factors of last week, as well as from the forecasted cold weather, which will increase demand for heating oil and have the potential to affect upstream production”.
“Some downward pressure will come from the strengthening U.S. dollar,” the report added, noting that “the U.S. Dollar Index increased last week, finishing the week at 108.92 from the previous week of 108.13 and is at the highest level since October of 2022 and up from 100.42 on September 22, 2024”.
WTI jumps 4% on reports of fresh US sanctions on Russia
The prices of oil futures continued to rise on Friday, driven by reports from Indian refining sources that indicated that the US Treasury is planning to enforce new sanctions targeting over 180 tankers carrying Russian oil and Russian insurance companies, aiming to disrupt the country’s oil income. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for February’s deliveries soared by 4.03% at 9:04 am ET to sell for $76.90 per barrel. A minute later, Brent for March’s settlements surged by 3.81% to go for $79.79 per barrel. Despite the recent rise in prices, traders remain cautious about balancing tightening supply and uncertain demand signals. Supply Constraints Drive Upward Pressure Supply-side factors were critical in shaping crude oil’s price movements this week. OPEC production dropped by 50,000 barrels per day (bpd) in December, largely due to maintenance in the UAE and declining Iranian output. These reductions align with OPEC+’s broader commitment to cut production, ensuring supply remains constrained. Saudi Arabia and Iraq maintained steady production levels, adhering to the cartel’s strategy to limit global availability. Adding to the supply squeeze, Western sanctions on Russian crude shipments continued to bite. Efforts by the Biden administration to restrict Russian exports, coupled with expectations of a 300,000 bpd decline in Iranian production, amplified concerns over global supply. These geopolitical factors have reinforced support for prices, even as demand uncertainties loom. Colder-than-expected weather across the U.S. and Europe has sharply increased demand for heating oil