Crude oil inventories in the United rose by 499,000 barrels for the week ending November 29, according to The American Petroleum Institute (API). Analysts had expected a draw of 1.30 million barrels. For the week prior, the API reported a 1.232-million barrel build in crude inventories. So far this year, crude oil inventories have fallen by roughly 3.4 million barrels since the beginning of the year, according to API data.
Events in Syria over the weekend could impact the crude market and increase the geopolitical risk premium on oil prices in the weeks and months to come amid yet more instability in the Middle East region. That’s what Rystad Energy’s Head of Geopolitical Analysis, Jorge Leon, said in a Rystad Energy oil market update, which was sent to Rigzone by the Rystad team late Monday. Leon highlighted in the update that Syria “isn’t a major oil producer” but noted that it “holds huge geopolitical clout due to its location and ties with Russia and Iran”. “Mixed with the tensions elsewhere in the region, the regime change has the potential to spill over into neighboring territories,” Leon stated in the update. “Sectarian tensions and instability in neighboring Iraq, a major oil producing nation that produced almost 4.1 million barrels per day of crude in November, could be further exacerbated,” he added. “Iran has lost another regional ally and is becoming increasingly isolated and more exposed to domestic revolts. This could embolden the upcoming Donald Trump administration to go for a ‘maximum pressure’ stance against Iran,” he went on to state. The update noted that Syrian oil production “shrunk rapidly after the civil war started in 2011 during the Arab Spring movement”. Syria’s oil output peaked in 1996 at 605,000 barrels per day, according to the update, which outlined that the country’s output then “started to decline gradually to 430,000 barrels per day by 2010 before abruptly plummeting to around 30,000 barrels per day in the years following the civil war”. According to the Energy Institute’s (EI) latest statistical review of world energy, which was released earlier this year, Syria’s oil production averaged 40,000 barrels per day in 2023. That figure marked a 6.6 percent year on year drop and less than 0.05 percent of global oil production in 2023, the review outlined. From 2013 to 2023, Syria’s oil production dropped by an average of 3.8 percent every year, the review showed. Syria’s crude oil and condensate production averaged 30,000 barrels per day last year, the review revealed. That figure represented a 7.7 percent year on year drop and less than 0.05 percent of the world’s crude oil and condensate output in 2023, according to the review. Syria’s crude oil and condensate production declined by an average of 3.8 percent every year from 2013 to 2023, the review highlighted. The EI’s oil production figure includes crude oil, shale oil, oil sands, condensates (lease condensate or gas condensates that require further refining), and NGLs (natural gas liquids – ethane, LPG, and naphtha separated from the production of natural gas), the review points out. It excludes liquid fuels from other sources such as biofuels and synthetic derivatives of coal and natural gas. It also excludes liquid fuel adjustment factors such as refinery processing gain and oil shales/kerogen extracted in solid form.The EI’s crude oil and condensate figure includes crude oil, shale/tight oil, oil sands, and lease condensate or gas condensates that require further refining, the review highlights. It excludes liquid fuels from other sources such as biomass and synthetic derivatives of coal and natural gas. Rystad Energy’s update noted that the “rapid seizure of … Syria’s capital … brought a sudden end to the 50 year rule of the Assad family on Sunday”. It outlined that the rebel advance can be explained “by a few reasons”. “Recent Israeli attacks on Iranian proxies in Syria in the last few weeks helped to weaken the fighting capabilities of Assad supporters,” the update pointed out. “Intensified fighting between Russia and Ukraine also prevented Moscow from providing rapid military support to the now former president,” it added. “After months of Israeli attacks, a severely weakened Hezbollah – a key Assad supporter – meant the Syrian rebels encountered little resistance on their way to Damascus,” it continued .“And finally, a cautious Iran opted not to intervene in support of Assad to avoid yet another military escalation in the region,” the update went on to state.\
Rystad also noted in its update that it could be argued that the events in Syria “might somewhat reduce the geopolitical risk premium well into next year”.“
A weakened Iranian regime might be more willing to reach an agreement with the U.S. to avoid economic pressures that might lead to more anger domestically,” it said. “At the same time, Russia’s inability or unwillingness to provide military support to Assad’s regime raises questions about Moscow’s own military capabilities, having found itself bogged down in its war with Ukraine,” it added.
“This might add to Russian willingness to end its war with its neighbor, which, if materialized, would reduce the geopolitical risk premium in the oil markets,” Rystad went on to state.
In a market analysis sent on Monday, Samer Hasn, a senior market analyst at XS.com, said, “after the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria, Iran has become less capable than ever of threatening Israel”. “Syrian territory was a lifeline for Hezbollah in Lebanon, and the latter is now besieged after being Iran’s key arm in the region,” Hasn added. NN: My bet is collapse of Syria lessons the risk to oil supplies.
The IDF has not released a detailed statement regarding the strikes, but the military sources spoke to the Israeli media confirmed that the Navy conducted a major operation on Monday night to eliminate the former regime’s naval fleet. The operation is part of a broader campaign to neutralize military assets and prevent them from falling into the hands of hostile forces. According to media reports citing official statements, following the collapse of the regime, Israel launched efforts to dismantle regime weapons sites to prevent them from being seized by hostile forces. This came amidst the chaotic takeover by rebel groups, many of which were previously linked to al-Qaeda and other jihadist organizations. Photographs from the port of Latakia reveal sunken Osa-class (Project 205) missile boats, with P-15M Termit (SS-N-2C Styx) launchers visibly protruding above the water’s surface. While official statements have not disclosed the number of Israeli warships involved or the exact count of Syrian vessels destroyed, some Israeli officials have indicated that all strategic weapons were successfully eliminated during the recent raids. The Osa-class missile boat is a high-speed naval vessel developed by the Soviet Union in the early 1960s. According to open sources, the Syrian Navy operated approximately 16 OSA-class missile boats, with at least half being the upgraded OSA II variant. The primary armament of the OSA-class features four P-15 (SS-N-2 Styx) anti-ship missilesas the main weapon. For air defense, the boats are fitted with two AK-230 turrets, each armed with twin 30mm autocannons. The vessels are powered by three diesel engines, each driving its own shaft, providing a high power-to-weight ratio and enabling a maximum speed of 39 knots. The Osa II variant features enhancements such as more powerful engines, an increased top speed, and tube-shaped missile launchers designed for the improved P-15U missiles, offering better operational capabilities and firepower.
The Israeli military announced on Tuesday that it had destroyed 70% of the military capabilities belonging to ousted Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Following the collapse of the Assad regime over the weekend, the Israeli military reported hitting 320 “strategic targets” in Syria as part of operation “Bashan Arrow.” The attacks specifically targeted weaponry that Israel fears could fall into the hands of hostile groups, including Hezbollah. Israel’s naval forces previously destroyed the Syrian military fleet as part of a broader campaign to eliminate strategic threats to Israel.
Israel stepped up its attacks on military sites in Syria, striking hundreds of targets early Tuesday and sending troops deeper into the country. The strikes targeted warehouses and weapons depots in several parts of Syria including the capital Damascus, bringing the total of Israeli airstrikes in the past two days to at least 310, according to the UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. Israel’s Army Radio, citing an unnamed defense official, described Tuesday’s attack as one of the biggest strikes in the air force’s history. Syria television also reported Israeli airstrikes on Damascus and its suburbs on two separate occasions early Tuesday. Israel seized a buffer zone along its border with Syria, an area the army says is about 155 square miles in size, a day after rebel groups toppled Bashar Al-Assad’s government on Sunday. Israel also said it struck Syrian chemical weapons and missile-storage sites. The observatory, which has been monitoring the war in Syria via a network of people on the ground, said Israeli tanks were seen in the southwestern suburbs of Damascus, a dozen miles away from the capital. The Israel Defense Forces are deployed in the buffer zone as well as points close to the border with Syria, spokesperson Avichay Adraee said in a post on X. He also said that reports circulating in some media outlets claiming that Israeli troops were “advancing or approaching Damascus are completely incorrect.” Israel’s seizure of the buffer zone and its sustained attacks have drawn the ire of Arab countries including Egypt and Saudi Arabia. In a statement, the kingdom said Israel’s assault showed “determination to sabotage Syria‘s chances of restoring its security, stability and territorial integrity.” Egypt also went as far as accusing Israel of seeking to “occupy more Syrian territory.” Israel is wary of the opposition groups that brought down Assad’s government. The rebels are led by Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham, an Islamist group that was originally affiliated with Al-Qaeda. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government was formally in a state of war with Assad, whose government maintained relative calm on that border despite some violations in the past year. But the emergence of a new Islamist power base in its immediate vicinity adds an additional threat after more than a year fighting Iran-backed militant groups in Gaza and Lebanon. The head of HTS, Ahmed Al-Sharaa, is trying to change the image of his group from a radical one to a unified opposition capable of inclusive governance in Syria. In an interview with CNN last week, he said “no one has the right to erase another group,” responding to a question about previous attacks on minority groups.
HTS is designated a terrorist organization by the US and many other countries.
In a statement over the weekend, the quasi-government of the opposition sought to reassure the international community that they would not use chemical weapons stored in Syria. “We have no intention or desire to use chemical weapons or any weapons of mass destruction under any circumstance,” the opposition said. NN: Only a libeal lefty WOK LGBRQ TANS BINAY FOOL. believes these are not savage terrorists that have taken over Syria. They will make Assad look like Mr. Rogers.
The Syrian Observatory of Human Rights indicated on Tuesday that the Israeli strikes reported since the rebels overthrew Syrian President Bashar al-Assad over the weekend have increased to 300. The update comes after loud explosions were reported in Syria’s capital city of Damascus in the early morning by several media outlets. Previously, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that the Golan Heights, Syrian territory, occupied by Israel for nearly 60 years, would remain part of Israel indefinitely. The Israeli military took control of a buffer zone in Syrian territory, established under a 1974 ceasefire. While Israel described the move as a temporary step to secure its border, critics accused it of violating the ceasefire and exploiting Syria’s instability to claim more land. Loud explosions could be heard in Syria’s capital city of Damascus early on Tuesday, according to multiple media outlets. Both AFP and Al-Jazeera Arabic correspondents reported the blasts. Al-Jazeera added that the explosions could be heard “in and around” Damascus, attributing them to Israeli air strikes. Hours earlier, the Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) said Israel carried out about 250 strikes in Syria since President Bashar al-Assad was ousted, targeting military installations. Earlier on Tuesday, the Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR) condemned “Israel’s invasion and bombing of Syria,” and called on United States President Joe Biden’s administration to “end arms shipments to Israel and hold them accountable for ongoing atrocities.”
Syria’s Islamist opposition group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) tasked on Monday Mohammed al-Bashir with the formation of a new transitional government in the immediate aftermath of the fall of former President Bashar al-Assad’s government over the weekend, according to Syrian media. Al-Bashir has been serving as the prime minister of the Syrian Salvation Government (SSG) a de-facto administrative authority overseeing the Idlib region in northwestern Syria, which has been primarily under the control of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham since 2017. Al-Bashir is expected to work with sitting Syrian Prime Minister Mohammad Ghazi al-Jalali to secure a peaceful transition of power. The fall of Assad from power marked the end of the Syrian Arab Republic under the Assad dynasty which has ruled Syria since 1963.
The prices of oil futures grew on Monday as traders assessed the potential consequences of the opposition forces seizing power in Syria and ousting President Bashar al-Assad. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for January’s settlements increased to sell for $68.50 per barrel. Simultaneously, Brent for February’s deliveries priced at $72.37 per barrel.
“The development in Syria has added a new layer of political uncertainty in the Middle East, providing some support to the market,” Mitsubishi UFJ Research and Consulting analyst Tomomichi Akuta told Reuters. “But Saudi Arabia’s price reductions and OPEC+’s production cut extension last week underscored weak demand from China, indicating the market may soften toward year-end,” Akuta added. “Markets are largely pricing that the tensions in Syria will remain contained within its own space and the risks of a wider oil supply disruption remain low,” IG market strategist Yeap Jun Rong told Bloomberg.
Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar said on Monday that the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) struck sites in Syria suspected of containing chemical weapons and long-range missiles amid political turmoil in the country. Syrian President Bashar al-Assad was overthrown yesterday, leading to uncertainty over future leadership. Sa’ar said Israel targeted the sites “so they will not fall in the hands of extremists.” He insisted the IDF’s presence on Syrian territory is “limited and temporary” and only aiming to ensure Israel’s security.
United States President-elect Donald Trump released a statement about Syrian President Bashar al-Assad fleeing Syria after rebels took control of Damascus. He said Assad’s departure was caused by Russia no longer supporting Assad and that its focus shifted to Ukraine, where he stated nearly 600,000 Russian soldiers have been killed or injured in the ongoing war. Trump also described both Russia and Iran as “weakened,” citing Russia’s struggles in Ukraine and economic difficulties and Iran’s challenges due to Israel’s apparent “fighting success.” Trump urged an immediate ceasefire and called for negotiations to prevent further destruction, appealing to Russian President Vladimir Putin and suggesting China could play a role in brokering peace. “I know Vladimir well. This is his time to act. China can help. The World is waiting,” he concluded.
Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has fled Damascus, according to multiple reports, after rebel forces entered the capital following a stunning territorial advance over a few days. The toppling of the longtime ruler is sending shockwaves through the Middle East and will be a major blow to Russia and Iran, his main foreign backers. Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham, which has led the push to oust Assad and his government, said it entered Damascus on Saturday evening and captured the key city of Homs — about 100 miles (160 kilometers) north of the capital — around the same time. Other areas of the country, including in the north near the Turkish border and in the south, have been captured by different groups. There were reports of Syrians in Damascus celebrating the downfall of the widely despised regime. HTS’s leader, Ahmed Al-Sharaa, called on all of the Syrian government’s forces in the capital to stand down. Al-Sharaa, also known as Abu Mohammed Al-Jolani, said Prime Minister Mohammad Ghazi al-Jalali will remain in his role until there’s an official handover. Assad’s whereabouts are still unknown. He left the country for an undisclosed location, the Associated Press reported, citing Rami Abdurrahman of the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. Agence France-Presse reported rebels as saying Assad had “fled,” while Reuters cited two army officers as saying the leader had flown out of Damascus.The 59-year-old, who took over from his father Hafez in 2000, made a last-ditch attempt to remain in power, including indirect diplomatic overtures to the US and President-elect Donald Trump, Bloomberg reported on Saturday. In a sign of how weak his military position was, he ordered his army to fall back on Damascus, essentially ceding much of the country, including Homs, to the insurgents. Trump took to social media to say that the US should “have nothing to do with” the developments in Syria. “This is not our fight,” he said. “Let it play out. Do not get involved!” Assad lost large swaths of the northwest of the country in late November as opposition fighters made a sudden advance out of Idlib province. They first captured Aleppo, one of the biggest cities in Syria, and then advanced on Hama. The rapid collapse of Syria’s government has taken Russia, Iran, the US and Israel, which borders Syria, by surprise. In 2015, Russia and Iran came to Assad’s aid and helped turn the tide in Syria’s war — which began four years earlier — in his favor. This time both Tehran and Moscow, which has a naval base at the Syrian port of Tartus, have been stretched by conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine. While Iran said it would send troops to Syria if Assad requested it and tried to drum up support for him among Arab states, it was ultimately unwilling or unable to do that. Moreover, Tehran’s most powerful proxy militia group, Lebanon-based Hezbollah, has been hugely degraded since September by war with Israel. Its fighters were crucial to helping Assad stay in power from early in the civil war. The Syrian conflict has left between 300,000 to 500,000 people dead and displaced more than 10 million, with many of them fleeing abroad, according to United Nations agencies and Syrian organizations. NN: This is ugly. Assad was to busy killing his own people to export Jihad. ISIS and Islamic Jihad rebranded has taken Syria.
