Syrian rebels reiterated in a televised statement that they have freed the capital city of Damascus and ousted President Bashar al-Assad’s regime. They also stated that they have freed all those “unjustly detained” by Assad, with the group saying earlier it had broken into the notorious Sednaya military prison and freed all the inmates. “We wish all our fighters and citizens preserve and maintain the property of the state of Syria. Long live Syria,” the group said. NN: ISIS under Mohammed Golani (ISIS) come to power…… slick trick
Syrian opposition activists say insurgents have reached the suburbs of Damascus
BEIRUT (AP) — Insurgents’ stunning march across Syria gained speed on Saturday with news that they had reached the suburbs of the capital and the government forced to deny rumors that President Bashar Assad had fled the country.
The move, reported by pro-government media and an opposition war monitor, was the first time that opposition forces reach the outskirts of the Syrian capital since 2018, when Syrian troops recaptured the region adjacent to the capital following a yearslong siege. It came after the Syrian army withdrew from much of southern Syria on Saturday, leaving more areas of the country, including two provincial capitals, under the control of opposition fighters.
The rapid advances by insurgents is a stunning reversal of fortunes for Assad, who appears to be largely on his own, with his usual allies preoccupied with other conflicts.
His chief international backer, Russia, is busy with its war in Ukraine, and Lebanon’s powerful Hezbollah, which at one point sent thousands of fighters to shore up his forces, has been weakened by a yearlong conflict with Israel. Iran, meanwhile, has seen its proxies across the region degraded by Israeli regular airstrikes.
The U.N.’s special envoy for Syria, Geir Pedersen, called for urgent talks in Geneva to ensure an “orderly political transition” in Syria. Speaking to reporters at the annual Doha Forum in Qatar, he said the situation in Syria was changing by the minute. Amid the dramatic developments, Syria’s state media denied rumors flooding social media that Assad has left the country, saying he is performing his duties in the capital, Damascus.
Rami Abdurrahman, who heads the Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, an opposition war monitor, said insurgents are now active in the Damascus suburbs of Maadamiyah, Jaramana and Daraya. He added that opposition fighters on Saturday were also marching from eastern Syria toward the Damascus suburb of Harasta.
A commander with the insurgents, Hassan Abdul-Ghani, posted on the Telegram messaging app that opposition forces have started carrying out the “final stage” of their offensive by encircling Damascus. He added that insurgents were headed from southern Syria toward Damascus.
Syria’s military, meanwhile, sent large numbers of reinforcements to defend the key central city of Homs, Syria’s third largest, as insurgents approached its outskirts.
Pedersen said a date for the talks in Geneva would be announced later and would discuss the implementation of U.N. Resolution 2254.
The resolution adopted in 2015 called for a Syrian-led political process, starting with the establishment of a transitional governing body, followed by the drafting of a new constitution and ending with U.N.-supervised elections.
Pedersen said the need for an orderly political transition “has never been more urgent,”
Abdurrahman reported Saturday that Iran’s military advisers have started leaving Syria. He added that Iran-backed fighters in eastern Syria, mainly from Afghanistan and Pakistan, have withdrawn into central Syria.
The shock offensive began Nov. 27 led by the jihadi Hayat Tahrir al-Sham group, or HTS, during which gunmen captured the northern city of Aleppo, Syria’s largest, and the central city of Hama, the country’s fourth largest city. The group has its origins in al-Qaida and is considered a terrorist organization by the U.S. and the United Nations.
HTS leader Abu Mohammed al-Golani told CNN in an exclusive interview Thursday from Syria that the aim of the offensive is to overthrow Assad’s government.
The Britain-based Observatory said Syrian troops have withdrawn from much of the two southern provinces and are sending reinforcements to Homs, where a battle is looming. If the insurgents capture Homs, they would cut the link between Damascus, Assad’s seat of power, and the coastal region where the president enjoys wide support.
The Syrian army said in a statement Saturday that it has carried out redeployment and repositioning in Sweida and Daraa after its checkpoints came under attack by “terrorists.” The army said it is setting up a “strong and coherent defensive and security belt in the area,” apparently to defend Damascus from the south.
Since Syria’s conflict broke out in March 2011, the Syrian government has been referring to opposition gunmen as terrorists.
In the gas-rich nation of Qatar, the foreign ministers of Iran, Russia and Turkey were scheduled to meet to discuss the situation in Syria. Turkey is a main backer of the rebels seeking to overthrow Assad.
Qatar’s top diplomat, Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, criticized Assad for failing to take advantage of the lull in fighting in recent years to address the country’s underlying problems. “Assad didn’t seize this opportunity to start engaging and restoring his relationship with his people,” he said.
Sheikh Mohammed said he was surprised by how quickly the rebels have advanced and said there is a real threat to Syria’s “territorial integrity.” He said the war could “damage and destroy what is left if there is no sense of urgency” to start a political process. After the fall of the cities of Daraa and Sweida early Saturday, Syrian government forces remain in control of five provincial capitals — Damascus, Homs and Quneitra, as well as Latakia and Tartus on the Mediterranean cost.
Tartus is home to the only Russian naval base outside the former Soviet Union while Latakia is home to a major Russian air base.
On Friday, U.S.-backed fighters of the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces captured wide parts of the eastern province of Deir el-Zour that borders Iraq as well as the provincial capital that carries the same name. The capture of areas in Deir el-Zour is a blow to Iran’s influence in the region as the area is the gateway to the corridor linking the Mediterranean to Iran, a supply line for Iran-backed fighters, including Lebanon’s Hezbollah.
With the capture of a main border crossing with Iraq by the SDF and after opposition fighters took control of the Naseeb border crossing to Jordan in southern Syria, the Syrian government’s only gateway to the outside world is the Masnaa border crossing with Lebanon.
Syrian rebel leader says group aims to end Assad regime…….Erdogan hopes rebels gain ground in Syria……Syrian rebels seize major army base in Daraa province
Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, leader of the Islamist Hayat Tahrir al-Sham group (HTS), revealed the goal of the forces’ offensive in Syria is to “overthrow” the regime of President Bashar al-Assad using “all available means.” In an exclusive interview with CNN published on Friday, the leader asserted that despite Iran and Russia’s efforts to prop up the regime, it is “dead.” Al-Jolani called for a shift in Syria’s governance “based on institutions, not one where a single ruler makes arbitrary decisions.” He also expressed a strong desire for the departure of foreign forces, including those from the United States, Turkey, Russia, and Iran, as well as its proxy groups. The rebel group has made significant advances, seizing control of key cities such as Aleppo and Hama. According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, the forces are now just 5 kilometers from Homs after capturing the towns of Rastan and Talbisseh, a strategic move that would “cut off the main road leading to the Syrian coast.”
Erdogan hopes rebels gain ground in Syria
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said on Friday that “the march of the opposition continues” as rebel groups keep advancing across Syria. “We hope this march in Syria will continue without any issues,” Erdogan added as the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham group said it intends to overthrow Syrian President Bashar al-Assad using “all available means.” Erdogan said he extended an invitation to Assad to “determine the future of Syria together” but that he did not receive a positive response. Assad’s regime has been forced to surrender the major cities of Aleppo and Hama to the rebels following a surprise offensive that started in late November.
Syrian rebels seize major army base in Daraa province
The Southern Operations Room, a newly formed group representing rebels in southern Syria, revealed on Friday that it took control over a major government military base in Daraa province. “Our destination is Damascus, and our meeting point is the public square of Umayyads,” the rebels said in a statement shared with CNN, calling on government forces to abandon “Assad regime’s criminal gang” and stand with rebels. The rebel group also claimed to have seized some government posts along the Jordanian-Syrian border. “Our forces are now securing the border strip following the surrender of the regime forces stationed there,” it added. Previously, Jordanian Foreign Minister Mazen al-Faraya said the country closed its only border crossing with Syria.
Crude oil falls over on demand concerns……. Markets not “BUYING” into the latest OPEC+ cuts
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, collectively known as OPEC+, will prolong the unwinding of production cuts until 2026, The current timeline for the unwinding plan was set to run from January to December of next year. The United Arab Emirates is set to see a gradual increase of 300,000 barrels to its oil production baseline, beginning in January 2025, to be implemented over a nine-month period.
Markets not “BUYING” into the latest cuts
The price of crude oil for front-month settlements dipped on Friday after data on industrial production in Germany rekindled concerns about the commodity’s consumption in Europe’s largest economy. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for January contracts f $67.22 a barrel. Brent for February deliveries declined by to $71.05 per barrel.
Israel targets Hezbollah weapon transfer routes…….. Hezbollah vows support for Assad amid rebel incursion
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) stated on Friday that its Air Force (IAF) attacked the crossings on the border between Lebanon and Syria allegedly used for transferring weapons to Hezbollah. In its posts on X, the IDF accused Hezbollah, supported by what it put simply as the Syrian regime, of using civilian infrastructure to conduct terrorist attacks and act against Israel. “The IDF will continue to act to remove any threat to the State of Israel and will not allow Hezbollah to be restored,” the military stressed. The update came amid the seemingly canceled ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, with the country, amid the continuing violations of the truce by both parties, resuming its operations in Lebanon.
Hezbollah vows support for Assad amid rebel incursion
Hezbollah’s Secretary General Naim Qassem pledged Thursday to continue support for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad as rebels intensify their attacks. “They will not be able to achieve their goals despite what they have done in past days, and we as Hezbollah will be by Syria’s side in thwarting the goals of this aggression as much as we can,” Qassem said while criticizing the opposition forces, labeling them as “terrorists.” He assured that Hezbollah remains committed to assisting Damascus in opposing these challenges, although he refrained from specifying the nature of the aid. In addition, Qassem disclosed that Hezbollah and Iran have allocated $77 million to support Lebanese individuals affected by ongoing conflicts with Israel, with plans to increase assistance further. NN: GOOD!! now the savages neutralized by the Jew are now savagely attacking each other. How come the UN is not sanctioning Syria? Where is the world criminal court? How come they are not issuing red letter arrest warrants for Hezbollah, Iran or Assad of Syria? I know they are not Jews.
OPEC+ Delays Revival of Its Oil Production by Three Months
OPEC+ NUCLEAR OPTION
OPEC+ delayed the revival of its oil production by three months, delegates said, the third time it’s deferred the move while crude prices struggle amid a looming surplus. The group led by Saudi Arabia and Russia pushed back the series of supply increases, which had been due to begin with a hike of 180,000 barrels a day in January. It will instead start in April and unwind the cuts at a slower place than previously planned, according to one delegate who asked not to be named because the information isn’t public. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners had first announced in June that they would restore output halted since 2022, reviving 2.2 million barrels per day in monthly tranches. But its plans have been thwarted as oil demand falters in top consumer China, while supplies boom from the US, Brazil and Canada. Global markets face a surplus in 2025 even if OPEC+ doesn’t add a single barrel, according to the International Energy Agency. In an indication of OPEC+’s supply predicament, Thursday’s agreement means the group will only have fully unwound its so-called voluntary production cuts by September 2026, a full year later than initially planned.
Full year of OPEC+ curbs won’t avert surplus
Oil prices have declined about 18% since early July as traders shrugged off turmoil in Middle East and focus instead the slowdown in China, which has grappled with a range of economic challenges. Citigroup Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. have predicted that crude will keep sliding into the $60s next year, even if OPEC+ continues to restrain production. That poses a financial threat for many members including the Saudis, who have already been forced to cut spending on lavish economic transformation plans. Their oil-market ally, Russian President Vladimir Putin, seeks revenue to continue waging war on Ukraine. Pausing the supply restart also gives OPEC+ some time to assess the impact of President-Elect Donald Trump’s return to the White House. He has signaled he could renew the campaign of “maximum pressure” on crude exports from Iran, deployed during his first term to curtail Tehran’s nuclear program. Squeezing the Islamic Republic’s oil sales could leave a gap for its Middle East adversaries to fill. On the other hand, Trump has also warned of punitive trade tariffs on several countries including China, which could deliver a fresh blow to Beijing’s economic activity and fuel consumption
WTI Falls as Economic Data Weighs on Market
Oil fell 2% to settle below $69 a barrel as tepid US economic data undercut OPEC+’s progress on a deal to keep output constrained. The decline comes after crude futures tested their 50-day moving average, a key level that had spurred some technical buying. But slowing US services activity growth and swelling fuel stockpiles — both signals of weak demand — weighed on the market.
“The failure of WTI to hold above $70 and its 50-day moving average reinforces these levels as resistance,” said Rebecca Babin, senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth Group. “Additionally, volumes today are significantly lighter than the 10-day average, indicating this could be a ‘wait-and-see’ market as we approach year-end.”
Crude has been locked in a band of roughly $6 since the middle of October, buffeted by the imminent Donald Trump presidency, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Ukraine, and a lackluster demand outlook from top importer China. Mixed energy data from the US on Wednesday further muddied the picture, with weak diesel demand and record oil production offsetting a surprise draw in crude inventories.
Still, fresh US sanctions on Iran’s shadowfleet, and an expected agreement by OPEC+ nations to delay production increases for another three months are keeping a floor under prices. OPEC+ is due to finalize supply plans at an online meeting on today. Even before OPEC+ ministers start toddy’s meeting on oil production, traders are looking beyond it. For the past week, the cartel led by Saudi Arabia and Russia has been holding preliminary talks to once again delay plans for reviving halted barrels. The group is firming up an agreement — to be finalized at Today’s gathering — that would push back a sequence of monthly hikes from January until the second quarter. Unfortunately for the alliance, crude traders already assumed the pause was unavoidable and have priced it in. Benchmark Brent futures have barely budged in the week since OPEC+ began negotiations, hovering around $74 a barrel. That could be complacency: The Saudis have a habit of springing bullish surprises to deter short sellers. Nonetheless, investors are looking past the decision, focusing on oil-market conditions in early 2025 — and those don’t augur well for prices. Global demand growth is cooling as top consumer China falters, while supplies from the US, Guyana and Canada are booming, according to the International Energy Agency. A hefty surplus looms, even if OPEC+ doesn’t add a single barrel next year. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners have already twice postponed their road map for restoring 2.2 million barrels a day in monthly tranches. Further delays may strain the group’s cohesion. Analysts increasingly wonder whether OPEC+ will eventually throw in the towel. The United Arab Emirates appears eager to deploy new production capacity, driving up exports last month to the highest in seven years. “They don’t want to collapse the price,” Bank of America Corp. notes, but “patience is running a little thinner than it used to.” Even Iran — one of OPEC’s founding members — acknowledged last week that the cartel’s strategy has proved self-defeating as the pursuit of higher oil prices finances an endless tide of rival supply. As brokers PVM Oil Associates Ltd. write today: “One cannot help but ponder how long the organization and its members are willing to sacrifice market share” for “a seemingly dubious, and chiefly ineffective, project.”
Oil Prices Predicted to Plummet Below $60 Under Trump
A new survey from law firm Haynes Boone LLC has revealed that banks are gearing up for oil prices to fall below $60 a barrel by the middle of President-elect Donald Trump’s new term, Bloomberg reported on Monday.
The survey of 26 bankers showed that they expect WTI prices to drop to $58.62 a barrel by 2027, more than $10 lower than the intraday price of $69.87 at 11.00 am ET on Wednesday.
Trump says he’ll push shale producers to ramp up output, even if it means operators “drill themselves out of business.” However, it’s not clear he intends to accomplish this feat since U.S. oil is produced by independent companies and not a national oil company (NOC). Exxon Mobil’s (NYSE:XOM) Upstream President Liam Mallon recently dismissed the notion that U.S. producers will dramatically increase output under a second Trump term.
“I think a radical change is unlikely because the vast majority, if not everybody, is primarily focused on the economics of what they’re doing,” Mallon said last week at a conference in London.
Meanwhile, StanChart notes that following Scott Bessent’s recent nomination as Treasury Secretary, his Manhattan Institute June session where he spoke at a conference entitled ‘Towards a New Supply-Side: The Future of Free Enterprise in the United States’ is being scrutinised as a potential guide to policy. The commodity analysts point out that U.S. oil and gas output is currently ~40.7 mboe/d; U.S. oil and gas output has grown by an average of about 123 kboe/d per month since 2015, meaning adding 3 mboe/d would take less than 25 months. The commodity experts have noted that 41% of the post-2015 increase has come from natural gas, 28% from natural gas liquids (NGLs) and just 28% from crude oil. StanChart has predicted that the crude oil element of the next 3 mboe/d increase is likely to be significantly less than 20%, with natural gas likely to be the main instrument for meeting the new administration’s energy goals as crude oil output growth becomes increasingly difficult. Recently, Morgan Stanley predicted that the U.S. natural gas market is poised to enter a new cycle of demand growth thanks to surging LNG exports and rising electricity demand. NN: I believe oil will fall by over $10 a barrel and IF i am right and IF i can guess lucky again we could make a bundle.
EIA: US crude inventories down by 5.1M barrels
Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the week ending November 29, 2024
U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 5.1 million barrels from the previous week. At 423.4 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 5% below the five year average for this time of year.
U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 16.9 million barrels per day during the week ending November 29, 2024, which was 615 thousand barrels per day more than the previous week’s
average. Refineries operated at 93.3% of their operable capacity last week. Gasoline production decreased last week, averaging 9.5 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel production increased last week, averaging 5.3 million barrels per day. U.S. crude oil imports averaged 7.3 million barrels per day last week, increased by 1.2 million barrels per day from the previous week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged about 6.9 million barrels per day, 5.0% more than the same four-week period last year. Total
motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 511 thousand barrels per day, and distillate fuel imports averaged 116 thousand barrels per day. Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 2.4 million barrels from last week and are about 4% below the five year average for this time of year. Finished gasoline inventories decreased while blending
components inventories increased last week. Distillate fuel inventories increased by 3.4 million barrels last week and are about 5% below the five year average for this time of year.
Propane/propylene inventories decreased by 0.7 million barrels from last week and are 10% above the five year average for this time of year. Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 4.7 million barrels last week.
Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 20.4 million barrels a day, up by 4.0% from the same period last year. Over the past four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied averaged 8.8 million barrels a day, up by 2.8% from the same period last year. Distillate fuel
product supplied averaged 3.7 million barrels a day over the past four weeks, even with the same period last year. Jet fuel product supplied was up 7.1% compared with the same four-week period last year.
OPEC Secrecy Isn’t Helping Its Exit Strategy from Production Cuts
- OPEC+ faces a dilemma: easing production cuts risks further price drops below $70 per barrel, but maintaining cuts supports non-OPEC+ supply growth.
- Saudi Arabia is pushing to delay the easing of cuts by 3–6 months.
- The group’s decision may hinge on how President Trump’s return in January 2025 impacts Iran, Venezuela, and global oil demand.
This week, the OPEC+ group is meeting to discuss when and how to begin easing the ongoing production cuts. The alliance looks to have dug itself deeper into a position between a rock and a hard place, again. Although they are not publicly admitting it, OPEC and its allies want to keep oil prices fairly high, as many of these need oil to trade at least above $80 per barrel to avoid budget deficits, and even above $90 a barrel for most, including Saudi Arabia. However, higher oil prices are also helping non-OPEC+ supply growth, not only from the United States but also from producers such as Guyana and Brazil. For the umpteenth time, OPEC is caught between its own revenue needs and the loss of market share to rival non-OPEC+ supply. OPEC, of course, has been stating for years that it isn’t going for a specific oil price with the production cuts—rather it’s all about ensuring and keeping “market stability.” But as prices have stabilized at just over $70 per barrel Brent in recent weeks, OPEC faces another dilemma at the December 5 meeting, which was postponed from the originally planned date December 1. If the cartel and its allies begin unwinding the cuts in January – as currently planned – they risk a certain slide of Brent Crude prices below $70 a barrel and possibly further down as demand doesn’t appear great and the oversupply next year would only grow. Lower prices could hurt U.S. drillers, but they would also hurt OPEC and Russia, the ultimate petrostates for which oil revenues are the single biggest budget income.
In this situation, OPEC’s exit strategy from the production cuts is now more unclear than ever. If OPEC+ producers want to bankrupt U.S. drillers as they have attempted – and achieved – in the past, they would have to bust their own budgets and endure a prolonged period of price pain until demand begins outstripping supply again.
Yet, the leader of the cartel and the OPEC+ group, Saudi Arabia, needs oil income pouring in, a lot of it, to fund the Crown Prince’s Vision 2030 program of tech and construction and tourism wonders that would reduce the Kingdom’s reliance on oil.
The group has limited options in easing the production cuts as these restrictions, aimed at supporting oil prices, helped non-OPEC+ supply, especially from the United States, Iran’s Governor for OPEC, Afshin Javan, wrote in a column of Iranian state news agency Shana last week.
It is as a rare admission from an OPEC member that the cartel’s policies to boost oil prices are boosting U.S. oil production growth, too, Bloomberg Opinion columnist Javier Blas argues. In the post, which briefly appeared online, Iran’s Javan wrote that “This strategy in support of prices has effectively encouraged higher supply outside the group, particularly on the part of the US.” And acknowledged, “That would leave a limited room for maneuvering by OPEC+ to ease its restrictions.” Javan also cited “bleak economic prospects” in China as throwing in another challenge at OPEC’s plans to ease the production cuts. Weak fundamentals could prompt the OPEC+ group to delay – once again – the output increase currently planned to begin in January, according to recent market speculation. Saudi Arabia is pushing for a delay of between three and six months, OPEC+ delegates have told Bloomberg’s Blas. The Saudis have even sought support for extra cuts, but none of the other producers in the alliance has expressed willingness to support additional cuts, according to the delegates. The OPEC+ group is likely to delay the unwinding of the production restrictions, not least to see what U.S. President Donald Trump will do with Iran and Venezuela when he returns to the White House in January. Analysts widely expect Trump to tighten the screws on Iran and attempt stricter enforcement of the U.S. sanctions. If a fairly large chunk of Iran’s supply – which goes mostly to China – is taken off the market, OPEC+ will have a reasonable justification for starting to ease the production cuts. However, if President Trump follows through with his tariff threats, global trade and economies could suffer and reduce the expected oil demand growth, analysts say. OPEC+’s best play for this week’s meeting may be to postpone the cuts until the end of March 2025, to see how the first policies of the new Trump administration would affect the oil market and the economy.