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Trump says deal to end war will be signed on Sunday, Iran questions timing

DUBAI/WASHINGTON, June 13 (Reuters) – Iran said on Saturday ​it could sign the framework for a peace deal with the United States in the coming days, but dismissed a suggestion by mediator Pakistan that it would be signed ‌within the next 24 hours. The U.S. and Iran signalled on Friday that an agreement to end three months of war was close, with a U.S. administration official saying both sides had agreed on a text and that Washington expected to sign an initial deal in the coming days. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said on Saturday the two sides had agreed on a framework for a peace deal and Islamabad was preparing for an electronic signing to be followed by technical-level talks next week.
Sharif suggested ​the initial deal could be signed on Sunday, but Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei was later quoted by state media as saying caution was needed when commenting on the timing. “We will have ​to wait and see about the exact date of the signing of the memorandum of understanding, although it will not be tomorrow,” Baghaei was quoted as ⁠saying. “The possibility of this happening in the coming days cannot be ruled out. However, due to the hesitation of the other side, we must be cautious in making any comments about this process.” The two ​sides have repeatedly appeared close to an initial agreement on ending the war without signing a deal, but Sharif said on X: “We are closer to a peace deal than ever before.” Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said on Friday that ‌while changes in ⁠the deal were still possible, the tentative agreement showed his country had emerged stronger from the conflict. “Iran is the winner of the war with the U.S.,” he said on state television on Friday. Hours after those remarks, U.S. forces shot down multiple Iranian one-way attack drones heading toward the Strait of Hormuz, a source familiar with the matter told Reuters. The source, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said the drones had posed a threat to commercial traffic. U.S. Central Command later confirmed the action and said the waterway was open. The proposed memorandum of understanding calls for reopening the strait and lifting the U.S. naval blockade on Iranian ports, sources ​on all sides of the talks said. Negotiations over ​Iran’s nuclear program – Trump’s stated rationale for ⁠starting the war – would take place afterwards. A U.S. official, speaking on condition of anonymity, told reporters on Friday that the deal met Trump’s core objectives and put negotiations “in a very, very good place”. Draft terms described to Reuters by multiple sources indicate the U.S. would begin releasing billions of dollars in frozen Iranian assets and ​waive sanctions on its oil exports, in return for Iran opening the strait. Iran’s nuclear program would be addressed during a 60-day period of talks. The ​U.S. official said the agreement ⁠would ultimately lead to the dismantling of Iran’s nuclear program, with its stockpile of highly enriched uranium to be destroyed and removed.
But Araqchi said that Iran, which sources said has not accepted the dismantling of its nuclear program, wanted to retain the uranium in diluted form. The proposals also include discussion of possible war reparations for Tehran and dropping longstanding U.S. demands for limits on Iran’s missile program, the sources said. The U.S. official disputed that ⁠account.
NN: This is a work in progress. I am not confident at all this will end the oil crises…. I smell a rat!
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US said to play no role in Hormuz under proposed deal

The draft US-Iran memorandum of understanding keeps the Strait of Hormuz firmly under regional control, the Iranian news agency IRNA reported in an exclusive on Friday.

Iran will not make any commitments regarding “handing over the management” of the Strait of Hormuz, and the future of the strait will be “resolved within the framework of a regional issue and through joint dialogue and decision-making between Tehran and Oman.”

The deal underscores that its main goal is to end the war on all fronts: Washington pledges to “force Israel to end the war in Lebanon,” with no “ceasefire extension” language used. The rest of the agreement is mostly in line with previous reports. The nuclear file is untouched for now, with talks to begin within 60 days of signing, and frozen assets will be released partly upon signing, with the rest gradually.

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Iran won’t restore Strait of Hormuz to prewar levels

Oil prices pared back some loses on Friday after an Iranian media outlet reported that the regime would not restore traffic through the Strait of Hormuz to its prewar levels

On Friday, Irna, the Islamic Republic’s news agency, reported that the strait would not return to its pre-conflict levels.

Earlier on Friday, oil prices extended losses from Thursday’s session on a report from Iran’s semiofficial Mehr News Agency that a draft peace deal would reopen the strait and lift oil sanctions on Iran. An official U.S. source has not yet responded to these claims.

On Thursday, President Donald Trump said that he “cancelled” strikes on Iran and claimed that a memorandum of understanding would be signed over the weekend in Europe, with negotiations having been brought “to the highest level of Iranian leadership and approved.” Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Esmail Baghaei, reportedly responded that “nothing has been finalized.” Jim Reid, global head of macroeconomic research and thematic strategy at Deutsche Bank, wrote in a note on Friday that Brent crude’s overnight decline “led to a huge rally across bonds and equities,” as investors’ worries about a prolonged stagflationary shock were reduced.

NN: 39 is the magic number. That’s how many times Trump said the straights would be opened. And 39 times Iran said the straights would not be opened until all its demands are met. So far Iran is winning and Trump is TACO ing out.
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Oil dips over 4% on Middle East peace hopes

The prices of oil futures dipped by over 4% on Friday after United States President Donald Trump announced that he had canceled attacks on Iran, claiming that, to his understanding, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei approved the long-awaited agreement between the two countries. Furthermore, the US president signaled that the deal could be signed in the next few days, “maybe over the weekend,” and probably in Europe. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for July deliveries decreased 4.34% at 4:34 am ET, going for $83.90 per barrel. At the same time, Brent for August settlement dropped 4.44%, selling at $86.36 a barrel.

NN: Its the 39th peace deal announcement. Of course a non binding “memorandum of understanding”  is not a  peace  deal. In fact the main issues like nukes and opening up the straights are still to be negotiated. Take advantaged of the drop.
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Iran said to deny deal with US finalized

Iran rejected US President Donald Trump’s claims that a ceasefire deal between the countries had been reached in principle, Tasnim News Agency reported on Thursday. “Trump declared 38 times that a deal was imminent. In just three days, he ‘imaginarily’ sent his deputy to Pakistan four times,” the outlet added. “As long as Iran does not itself announce the existence of a possible understanding or agreement, Trump’s reports on the subject should be considered part of his previous line of messages.”

further updates coming
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Trump cancels Iran strikes…… AKA T A C O

President Donald Trump said he canceled planned military strikes against Iran, a stark reversal that came just hours after he vowed to hit the Islamic Republic “VERY HARD” and threatened to seize its oil infrastructure. Trump on Thursday cited what he said were “discussions” that “have been brought to the highest level of Iranian leadership” surrounding a negotiated end to the war. He said that a “time and place of the signing” would “be announced shortly,” without providing further details. “I have, as President of the United States of America, cancelled the scheduled strikes and bombings against Iran this evening,” Trump posted on social media. Oil prices plunged nearly 4%, with Brent trading below $90 a barrel after Trump’s comments. Iran has yet to comment on Trump’s statement. The comments marked the latest conflicting signal Trump has sent about the status of the war, vacillating between threats of intensified attacks and insisting a peace deal is within reach. Neither scenario has yet to materialize, as Washington and Tehran have remained stuck on key points, including Iran’s nuclear program and frozen assets. Trump said that “discussions and final points have been, in both concept and great detail, approved by all parties involved, including the United States, Israel, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Turkey, Pakistan, Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan, Egypt, and others.” The list did not include Iran.

The president added that the US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz “will remain in full force and effect until this Transaction is finalized.”

NN: Their is no deal and no oil flowing
T A C O
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Trump: US to take Kharg Island in not too distant future

President Donald Trump said the US would strike Iran again Thursday and threatened to take control of the country’s energy infrastructure including the key oil export hub of Kharg Island “at some point.” “The United States will be hitting Iran (Whose Navy, Air Force, Radar, Anti Aircraft, and all other forms of Defense, together with most of its offensive capability, are GONE!), VERY HARD TONIGHT,” Trump wrote on his social media platform. “At some point in the not too distant future, we will be taking Kharg Island, and other oil infrastructure points, and assume total control of their Oil and Gas Markets, much like we have with Venezuela,” he wrote. A two-month ceasefire collapsed over the weekend when Iran downed a US military helicopter, sparking an exchange of retaliatory strikes. Trump comments threaten further escalation which risks derailing slow-moving talks over a peace agreement. Taking Kharg Island would likely require the use of US ground forces, which would put servicemembers in greater danger and pose political challenges for the president, as the war becomes increasingly unpopular at home.

NN: One can only hope THAT THIS TIME President taco doesn’t Trump Always Chicken Out….. Again!! We need to bite the bullet and send these savages to their virgins
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EIA Weekly Petroleum Data

Summary for the week ending June 5, 2026

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 7.2 million barrels from the previous week. At 426.5 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 5% below the five-year average for this time of year. U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 17.0 million barrels per day during the week ending June 5, 2026, which was 80 thousand barrels per day more than the previous week’s average. Refineries operated at 95.3% of their operable capacity last week. Gasoline production increased last week, averaging 9.7 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel production increased, averaging 5.2 million barrels per day. U.S. crude oil imports averaged 5.9 million barrels per day last week, decreased by 0.5 million barrels per day from the previous week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged about 5.9 million barrels per day, 5.8% less than the same four-week period last year. Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 714 thousand barrels per day, and distillate fuel imports averaged 130 thousand barrels per day.
Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 0.2 million barrels from last week and are 6% below the five-year
average for this time of year. Finished gasoline inventories increased, while blending component
inventories decreased last week. Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 0.2 million barrels last
week and are about 13% below the five-year average for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories increased by 1.1 million barrels from last week and are 35% above the five-year average for this time of year. Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 5.6 million barrels last week. Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 20.6 million barrels per day, up by 3.5% from the same period last year. Over the past four weeks, motor gasoline product
supplied averaged 8.8 million barrels per day, down by 0.5% from the same period last year. Distillate fuel product supplied averaged 3.7 million barrels per day over the past four weeks, up by 7.2% from the same period last year. Jet fuel product supplied was down 2.2% compared with the same four-week period last year.

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Trump ‘close to’ ordering strikes on Iran’s plants, bridges

United States President Donald Trump told Fox News on Wednesday that he is “close to ” instructing the military to launch new strikes against Iran. Trump said the new targets may include Iran’s power plants and bridges and reiterated that Tehran “took too long” to negotiate a peace agreement with the US. He also vowed to continue taking action against Iran.

More to come…

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Disconnected Oil Futures Market Could See Price Spike within Weeks

  • Oil markets remain focused on hopes for a U.S.-Iran deal, but the physical market is facing a severe supply crunch.
  • Global oil inventories are being depleted at a record pace, as governments draw down strategic reserves and stored crude to offset lost supply, while U.S. fuel stocks have fallen to multi-year lows.
  • Analysts and energy executives warn a sharp price spike may be imminent, with Exxon and Chevron suggesting Brent could surge toward $150–$160 per barrel.

For more than three months, oil market participants have hoped that the Middle East conflict would be resolved any day now, while about 13 million barrels per day (bpd) have been wiped off global supply due to the closed Strait of Hormuz. The oil futures market has been mostly guided by sentiment and traders’ hopes of an imminent peace deal – as U.S. President Donald Trump has been touting for weeks – with oil prices increasingly disconnected from the reality on the ground, or more precisely, in storage tanks. The reality is that global oil stocks, including those in the United States, are plummeting as governments draw on strategic reserves to offset part of the massive losses of supply from the Middle East.

Each day that passes without normalized traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is further draining stocks, which top industry officials warn are on track for critically low level within weeks.

Cargoes would still need weeks to reach buyers even if the Strait of Hormuz reopened unconditionally today to free traffic, which isn’t the case with Iran’s demands in the negotiations with the U.S. to have operational control over the Strait. Of course, most oil flows could return if tanker owners and operators are willing to risk venturing into and out of the chokepoint, knowing that any peace deal could quickly unravel with one Israeli strike in Lebanon or one “I’ll blow them up” post about Iran by President Trump.  Many traders appear unfazed in the face of the 13 million bpd supply loss, as they still hope for a quick resolution to the conflict – for over three months now – and bet on a gusher of oil supply when the Strait of Hormuz reopens.

In reality, even if the Strait reopened today, supply would take weeks and even months to reach customers, leaving a large gap in supply at the start of the peak summer demand season.

So far, the oil market has relied on oil on water, de-sanctioned Russian crude (and for a month even unsanctioned Iranian crude, too), and drawing on stocks to fill the gap. The market has also been lucky that China had amassed an estimated more than 1.2 billion barrels of oil in commercial and strategic reserves before the war, and its imports have collapsed with oil prices at $100 a barrel or more. These buffers are being exhausted every day that traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is nearly halted, and we are approaching the tipping point soon, analysts and industry officials warn. In the May monthly report, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said that global oil supply declined by a further 1.8 million bpd in April, taking total losses since February to 12.8 million bpd.

“Mounting supply losses from the Strait of Hormuz are depleting global oil inventories at a record pace,” the IEA said, adding that observed global inventories, including oil on water, were drawn down by 250 million barrels over March and April, or by 4 million bpd.

Inventories are set to reach “rock bottom” within weeks, and the paper market could catch up with the worst supply disruption in history. In the United States, stocks of crude and petroleum products had plunged to 1.53 billion barrels as of May 29, per EIA data, the lowest level in weekly ending stocks since 2004. U.S. gasoline inventories are plummeting, and so are inventories at Cushing, the delivery point for WTI futures.

Many traders choose to ignore warnings from analysts and from the chief executives of both Chevron and Exxon that inventories are so low that oil prices are weeks away from spiking if traffic through Hormuz remains mostly choked.

“We’re approaching unheard of inventory levels. I mean, really, really low levels,” Neil Chapman, Exxon’s Senior Vice President, said at the Bernstein 42nd Annual Strategic Decisions Conference at the end of May.

“I think dated Brent, most people with a model would say dated Brent will shoot up once you get to that really low inventory level, up to $150, $160 — the models would tell you that.”

Chevron’s CEO Mike Wirth said on the same conference, “The buffers and the shock absorbers are being steadily drawn down and the ability for the market to absorb this imbalance is drastically diminished today versus where we started and over the next few weeks, we’re likely to see those pressures flow through more directly to physical prices, and there’s more upward pressure that I would expect as we get into June and certainly into July.”  With inventories depleting at a record pace, demand destruction could soon remain the only shock absorber, insufficient to stop an oil price spike within weeks without at least a partially normal resumption of traffic at Hormuz.

NN:  As i have reported on a daily bases oil inventories are running out. The paper oil market prices are at least $50 a barrel under where actual oil is trading out. In my opinion  If you  can take the pain the biggest spike in oil prices is coming very soon now. It would be a crying shame to give up to soon now!