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IAEA says Iran enriched uranium stockpile ‘near weapons-grade levels’

VIENNA (AP) — Iran has further increased its stockpile of uranium enriched to near weapons-grade levels in defiance of international demands, a confidential report by the United Nations’ nuclear watchdog said Thursday. The report by the International Atomic Energy Agency, seen by The Associated Press, said that as of Aug. 17, Iran has 164.7 kilograms (363.1 pounds) of uranium enriched up to 60 %. That’s an increase of 22.6 kilograms (49.8 pounds) since the IAEA’s last report in May.

Uranium enriched up to 60% purity is just a short, technical step away from weapons-grade levels of 90%. By IAEA’s definition, around 42 kilograms (92.5 pounds) of uranium enriched to 60% is the amount at which creating one atomic weapon is theoretically possible — if the material is enriched further, to 90%.

The IAEA chief, Rafael Mariano Grossi, has previously warned that Tehran has enough uranium enriched to near-weapons-grade levels to make “several” nuclear bombs if it chose to do so. He has acknowledged the U.N. agency cannot guarantee that none of Iran’s centrifuges may have been peeled away for clandestine enrichment. Thursday’s report is the latest low in spiraling relations between Tehran and the IAEA. It follows a June 6 resolutionby the 35-member IAEA Board of Governors that censured Iran for failing to cooperate fully with the Vienna-based agency. Iran’s mission at the United Nations in New York did not immediately respond to a request from the AP for comment. There were also no immediate comments from Tehran on the IAEA report. Iran’s 2015 landmark nuclear deal with world powers had put limits on its nuclear program — which the West fears could be used for making nuclear weapons and Tehran insists is only for peaceful purposes — while lifting punitive economic sanctions imposed on Iran.But the deal collapsed after the Trump administration in 2018 pulled the United States out of the agreement, leading Iran to abandon all limits the deal had put on its program, and enrich uranium to up to 60% purity. Meanwhile, surveillance cameras installed by the IAEA have also been disrupted and Iran has barred some of the Vienna-based agency’s most experienced inspectors. Iranian officials also have increasingly threatened that they could pursue atomic weapons. The IAEA report further says that Tehran has also not reconsidered its September decision to ban the agency’s inspectors from monitoring its nuclear program and that IAEA surveillance cameras remain disrupted. The IAEA said it had requested in an Aug. 8 letter that Iran provide access to a centrifuge manufacturing site in the city of Isfahan, to enable the agency to service its cameras, but received no reply. Additionally, the report says Iran has still not provided answers to the nuclear watchdog’s years-long investigation about the origin and current location of man-made uranium particles found at two locations that Tehran has failed to declare as potential nuclear sites, known as Varamin and Turquzabad.

The IAEA report comes just days after Iran’s supreme leader opened the door to renewed negotiations with the United States over his country’s rapidly advancing nuclear program, declaring there was “no harm” in engaging with the “enemy.”

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Ukraine launches drone strikes targeting Russia’s strategic oil infrastructure

Aug. 29 (UPI) — Ukraine said Thursday that it had used domestically manufactured drones to expand strikes against strategic Russian oil facilities overnight and target field artillery infrastructure just across the border inside Russia. The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces said that following an attack on an oil depot in Rostov province Wednesday morning, Ukrainian forces had hit an oil storage facility in the Kirov region, northeast of Moscow and more than 900 miles inside Russia and an artillery ammunition dump in the Rossosh district of Voronezh region, about 35 miles from the border with Ukraine. Confirming the attacks in a social media post, the General Staff said the strike on the Atlas oil depot in Rostov caused explosions and set storage tanks ablaze, but the full extent of the damage inflicted there and in Kirov and Voronezh was “currently being clarified.” It said the missions were carried out by special operations forces and the Intelligence Directorate of the Defense Ministry, in cooperation with other branches of the military. Both the Rostov plant in Molodezhnyi, just east of occupied Luhansk province, which belongs to Russia’s Federal Agency for State Reserves, and the Kirov facility were targeted for their roles in keeping Russia’s armed forces supplied. Russian media reported fresh, powerful explosions at the Rostov plant late Wednesday where firefighters were still fighting fires from the earlier attack. Kirov. Gov. Alexander Sokolov confirmed a blaze near the Zenit oil products depot in Kotelnich that he said was started when three of five drones targeting the facility fell nearby after being downed by Russian air defenses. The Kyiv Independent reported a source as saying the Zenit oil depot was a “facility of the enemy military-industrial complex and provides fuel to the Russian occupation forces.” The General Staff pledged more attacks as part of continuing measures to “undermine the military and economic potential of the Russian occupiers and stop Russia’s armed aggression against Ukraine.” Ukraine has mounted at least 64 drone strikes against Russian refineries, storage and other oil infrastructure either in Russia or Ukrainian territory occupied by Russia, the BBC’s Russian service reported Wednesday.

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WTI rises by 3% on new supply worries

The prices of oil futures extended their gains on Thursday following a report that Iraq suspended the spot cargo of a million barrels in August to lower the volume of its exports. Earlier, the Houthi movement targeted the Greek tanker Sounion in the Red Sea and Lybia temporarily halted its production and exports due to the ongoing political conflict. West Texas Intermediate for October’s settlements jumped by 3.07% at 10:16 am ET to sell for $76.77 per barrel. Simultaneously, Brent for the same month’s deliveries soared by 2.61% to go for $80.65 per barrel.

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Israeli forces kill five ‘terrorists’ hiding inside mosque

Tulkarem, West Bank (AP) — The Israeli military said it killed five more militants, including a local commander, early Thursday in the West Bank as it pressed ahead with what appeared to be the deadliest military operation in the occupied territory since the start of the war in Gaza. Israel says the simultaneous raids across the northern West Bank — which have killed a total of 16 people, nearly all militants, since late Tuesday — are aimed at preventing attacks. The Palestinians see them as a widening of the Israel-Hamas war aimed at perpetuating Israel’s decades-long military rule over the territory. The Islamic Jihad militant group confirmed that Mohammed Jaber, known as Abu Shujaa, was killed during a raid in the city of Tulkarem. He became a hero for many Palestinians earlier in the year when he was reported killed in an Israeli operation, only to make a surprise appearance at the funeral of other militants, where he was hoisted onto the shoulders of a cheering crowd. The military said he was killed early Thursday along with four other militants in a shootout with Israeli forces after the five had hidden inside a mosque. It said Abu Shujaa was linked to numerous attacks on Israelis, including a deadly shooting in June, and was planning more. Israel launched a large-scale operation in the West Bank overnight into Wednesday. Hamas said 10 of its fighters were killed in different locations, and the Palestinian Health Ministry reported an 11th death, without saying whether he was a fighter or a civilian. The overall toll of 16 killed in less than two days would make it the deadliest Israeli operation in the West Bank since Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack out of Gaza ignited the war there. The raids have focused on refugee camps that date back to the 1948 war surrounding Israel’s creation, in which around 700,000 Palestinians fled or were driven out of what is now Israel. Many of the camps are militant strongholds.

Hamas repeated its calls for Palestinians in the West Bank to rise up, calling the raids part of a larger plan to expand the war in Gaza. The militant group has called on security forces loyal to the Western-backed Palestinian Authority, which cooperate with Israel, to “join the sacred battle of our people.” Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas has also condemned the Israeli raids, but his forces were not expected to get involved. NN This is adding more fuel to the fire. 

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Exxon Joins OPEC in Warning of Looming Oil Supply Crisis

  • Exxon predicts a future oil shortage if investment in new production doesn’t increase, despite forecasts of declining demand due to electric vehicles.
  • The company argues a rapid decline in production, especially from unconventional sources like shale, could lead to severe energy shortages and price hikes.
  • Exxon’s warnings contrast with forecasts from the IEA and others who see lower oil demand in the future but raise questions about the long-term security of energy supplies. Traders and analysts have been overwhelmingly bearish on oil in the past few months. With a few exceptions, everyone seems to expect dwindling demand and falling prices. Yet it might turn out that the opposite will happen. OPEC has been warning about this for years. Various officials from the cartel have been sounding the alarm that insufficient investment in new oil supply would eventually turn into a future supply squeeze that will push prices significantly higher. Exxon is now joining OPEC in those warnings. In the new edition of its Global Outlook, the U.S. supermajor predicted that both oil and gas will continue to be vital elements of the world’s energy mix in 2050, with demand for oil remaining at above 100 million bpd after growth peaks and gas demand also remaining strong—because electricity use in Exxon’s forecast will be 80% higher in 2050 than it is now. Perhaps the most disheartening prediction made by Exxon concerns EVs and their effect on oil demand. Here’s what Exxon said about electric vehicles:

“If every new car sold in the world in 2035 were electric, oil demand in 2050 would still be 85 million barrels per day. That’s the same as it was in 2010.”

This stands in stark contrast with virtually every other forecast about electric vehicles and their impact on oil demand, which those other forecasters see as devastating—even though the major growth in EV sales so far, even in China, has not really arrested oil demand growth.  A shortage of oil and gas would be very welcome to Exxon and OPEC alike. Shortages tend to drive prices higher, and higher prices invariably mean greater profits, as we saw in 2022. The other thing shortages lead to, however, is political and social instability, and that would not be welcome to large businesses such as Exxon—hence the warning, and it is a grim one. According to the supermajor, global oil production is facing a natural decline at a rate of some 15% annually over the next 25 years. For context, the IEA sees the rate of natural decline at 8% annually. Exxon points out, however, that the faster decline rate is a result of the shift towards shale and other unconventional oil production, where depletion happens faster than it does in conventional formations. “To put it in concrete terms: With no new investment, global oil supplies would fall by more than 15 million barrels per day in the first year alone.” This is a scary prospect because “At that rate, by 2030, oil supplies would fall from 100 million barrels per day to less than 30 million – that’s 70 million barrels short of what’s needed to meet demand every day.” In other words, if investment in new oil and gas production dries up, the world will soon face not just a supply squeeze but the mother of all supply squeezes. Per Exxon’s report, the effects of that squeeze will feature severe energy shortages and disruption to daily lives, with oil prices potentially rising by as much as 400%–twice as much as they jumped during the Arab oil embargo in the 1970s. This would, in turn, lead to higher unemployment, where rates could reach 30%, Exxon also said.

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Ukraine: Russia threat to country’s nuclear facilities……. Ukraine launches drone strikes on Russian oil facilities

Ukraine’s permanent mission to the international organizations in Vienna said in a letter sent to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) published on Thursday that the threat Russia could attack the former country’s nuclear facilities remains. “The Russian Federation continues to deliberately target Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, intending to disrupt the operation of the country’s nuclear power plants, which provide most of Ukraine’s electricity,” the mission’s letter read. It added that on August 26, Russia attacked its energy infrastructure, which resulted in several nuclear power plants or their parts being disconnected from the grid. Ukraine urged the agency to forward the notice to the IAEA’s members and help de-escalate the situation.

Ukraine launches drone strikes on Russian oil facilities

Aug. 28 (UPI) — Ukrainian officials said they struck a Russian oil depot with drones about 10 miles outside of its border in the Rostov Oblast on Wednesday morning. Oil tanks were set a blaze at the FDKU Atlas oil facility, located near the town of Kamensk-Shakhtinsky, east of the border with Russian-controlled parts of the Luhansk Oblast, a Ukrainian military intelligence source told the Kyiv Independent. Three oil tankers were on fire as of 4 a.m. local time, an hour after two drones “fell” on the oil facility, the Russian Telegram channel Baza reported.

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Something Big Is About Happen

Israel launched what it called a “counterterrorism operation” in the West Bank with hundreds of troops raiding the city of Jenin and other areas of the occupied territory. At least 10 Palestinians have been killed in the raids, either by airstrikes or gun battles on the ground. It’s the largest raid the West Bank has seen in months. Amna Nawaz reports.

More deta

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) launched an overnight counterterrorism operation in the West Bank targeting militants in multiple locations, including the cities of Jenin and Tulkarem. The IDF reported that it had eliminated five “armed terrorists” in those areas, apprehended “wanted suspects,” and located and confiscated “weapons including M-16s, ammunition and additional military equipment.” IDF troops additionally “exposed and dismantled explosives that were planted under the roads in the area” for use against Israeli forces. The IDF also carried out “an aerial counterterrorism operation in the area of Far’a” as part of its widespread sweep that killed an additional four “armed terrorists.” IDF spokesman Nadav Shoshani said on August 28 that the counterterrorism operation is ongoing. West Bank terrorists have perpetrated some 2,600 attacks against Israelis in the same time period. Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz hinted on August 28 that a larger-scale IDF operation was in the works. “We need to deal with the [terror] threat exactly as we deal with terror infrastructure in Gaza, including the temporary evacuation of Palestinian civilians and any other step needed,” Katz said, adding that the operation can be called “a war in every sense.” “The fecklessness of the Palestinian Authority when it comes to reining in terrorist groups, coupled with Iran’s campaign of supporting and arming Palestinian factions in the West Bank, has compelled Israel to launch a large-scale operation. Israeli security has increasingly been compromised by escalating violence in the West Bank over the last three years, while the Palestinian Authority has been outmatched by terrorist groups that are undermining its credibility and influence. Urgent action is needed to bring about substantial change in the West Bank before the situation deteriorates beyond the point of no return.”  “The West Bank, already on fire before October 7, is a key part of Iran’s strategy to engulf Israel from all sides. A Hamas foothold — or the proliferation of other terrorist groups — in the West Bank would be catastrophic given its proximity to Israel’s major population centers.”  The IDF eliminated five terrorists, including a wanted senior member of Hamas, in two separate counterterrorism operations on August 14. Katz warned on August 12 that Iran is working to destabilize both Jordan and the Palestinian Authority-controlled West Bank by smuggling weapons and funds through the Hashemite Kingdom. In an August 12 post on X, Katz noted that “a serious and dangerous situation is unfolding,” revealing that units from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) “are collaborating with Hamas operatives in Lebanon to smuggle weapons and funds into Jordan with the aim of destabilizing the regime.”

BlackMask Pod Cast

Iran has decided
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EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report for week ending Aug. 23, 2024

  Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the week ending August 23, 2024

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 0.8 million barrels from the previous week. At 425.2 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 4% below the five year average for this time of year. U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 16.9 million barrels per day during the week ending August 23, 2024, which was 175 thousand barrels per day more than the previous week’s average. Refineries operated at 93.3% of their operable capacity last week. Gasoline production decreased last week, averaging 9.6 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel production increased last week, averaging 5.0 million barrels per day. U.S. crude oil imports averaged 6.6 million barrels per day last week, decreased by 92 thousand barrels per day from the previous week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged about 6.4 million barrels per day, 6.1% less than the same four-week period last year. Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 867 thousand barrels per day, and distillate fuel imports averaged 220 thousand barrels per day. Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 2.2 million barrels from last week and are about 3% below the five year
average for this time of year. Finished gasoline inventories decreased, while blending components inventories increased last week. Distillate fuel inventories increased by 0.3 million barrels last week and are about 10% below the five year average for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories increased by 1.0 million barrels from last week and are 12% above the five year average for this time of year. Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 3.1 million barrels last week. Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 20.6 million barrels a day, down
by 2.9% from the same period last year. Over the past four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied averaged 9.1 million barrels a day, up by 1.1% from the same period last year. Distillate fuel product supplied averaged 3.6 million barrels a day over the past four weeks, down by 3.6% from the same period last year. Jet fuel product supplied was up 2.6% compared with the same
four-week period last year

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Oil Falls as Technical Correction Ends Three Day Rally

Oil fell as technical measures signaled a three-day rally driven by the threat of a halt to Libyan supplies was overdone.  “Short-term technical factors have come into play, and the three-day rally has lost momentum as the price of a barrel of WTI has risen above $77,” Alex Kuptsikevich, FxPro senior market analyst, said in a note to clients. The 200-day moving average could now act as resistance to further gains, after having served as a floor for prices for much of the year, he added. Libya’s eastern government declared force majeure — a legal clause allowing missed shipments — on all oil fields, terminals and facilities as it struggles with its Tripoli-based rival for control of the OPEC member’s central bank and oil riches. The 70,000 barrel-a-day El-Feel oil field was shut down. The disruption in Libya helped to shift an oil market that had been turning steadily more bearish in recent weeks. Still, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. cut its forecasts as global supplies increase, with the OPEC+ alliance due to begin adding barrels to the market next quarter. There’s also a weak demand outlook, especially in China, the world’s No. 1 importer. “We still assume that OPEC will raise production in Q4 as the market is potentially shifting from an equilibrium where OPEC supports spot balances and reduces volatility to a more long-run equilibrium focused on strategically disciplining non-OPEC supply and supporting cohesion,” Goldman analysts including Daan Struyven said. The threat to exports from Libya followed an exchange of fire between Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah over the weekend that rekindled fears that the conflict would affect physical exports from the Middle East. While both parties said that they had concluded military operations for now, the market is still watching for signs of further fallout from the war in Gaza. NN: We are seeing maximum market confusion here. And  that means opportunity. We will be posting trade recoes and BlackMask Market Update.

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Grossi says situation at Kursk plant ‘serious’

International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General Rafael Grossi stressed on Tuesday that the situation at the Kursk nuclear plant is “serious.” During his visit to the plant, Grossi underlined that a nuclear power plant must not be an object of military action “under any circumstances” and warned that it should not be used by “any party” for “military purposes.” The agency’s director general observed that while the power plant is currently functioning “close to normal,” there are visible signs of previous drone attacks. Grossi stated that the agency’s teams are currently stationed at “all nuclear facilities in Ukraine” and have not detected any leaks of radioactive materials.