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Oil Prices Extend Gains on U.S. Supply Concerns and Additional OPEC+ cuts

Crude oil prices extended gains made at the start of the week as a significant portion of U.S. production capacity in the Gulf of Mexico remained shut-in, following Hurricane Francine. An additional driver for oil prices came from traders expecting inventory declines over the week to September 13. The American Petroleum Institute reports inventory estimated later today and the EIA releases its report on Wednesday. Per a Reuters poll, crude oil inventories could have shed some 200,000 bpd in the reporting period. Platforms and being reopened but 12% of oil production capacity and 16% of gas production capacity are still shut, Reuters reported earlier today. That’s still down from about 20% of oil capacity and 28% of natural gas capacity as of Sunday. The disruption caused by Francine on Gulf of Mexico oil and gas production pushed oil prices higher last week and the boost appears to have endured longer than one might expect, especially in light of reports that bearish bets on oil hit an all-time high also last week.

“This historic speculative selling pressure prompted a more than $10/bbl collapse in crude prices between late August and this past Tuesday,” Commodity Context analyst Rory Johnston wrote in a note cited by Reuters.

However, the supply disruption in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico and expectations that the Fed will later this week announce a long-awaited interest rate cut seems to have reversed sentiment, at least temporarily. This pushed Brent crude above $73 per barrel earlier today, with West Texas Intermediate topping $70 per barrel. “Growing expectations of an aggressive rate cut boosted sentiment across the commodities complex,” ANZ analysts said, as quoted by Reuters. Crude oil prices have declined by about 14% since the start of the third quarter, mostly because of weaker-than-expected economic data from top importer China. OPEC+ has agreed to maintain its supply cuts and members who exceeded their quotes have agreed a compensation schedule in addition to the recently announced reduction in targets due to delaying the implementation of tapering. This will result in significant increases in production cuts.
NN:
OPEC production will drop  even more on top of present cuts:
530,000 b/d lower in Q4-2024
540,000  b/d lower in Q1 and Q2-2025 
560,000  kb/d lower in Q3-2025
By my calculations.
Funny thing it is in what they forgot to tell you
Other Analysts Look at Oil Price Rise

Rebecca Babin, a senior equity trader for CIBC Private Wealth in New York said Crude is trading higher today due to ongoing disruption in Libyan oil flows, as the UN was unable to reach an agreement over the weekend. That’s what, adding that, “with bearish market positioning, there is limited supply to cover shorts, further supporting the rally”.

Brian Leisen, a Global Oil Analyst at RBC Capital Markets, said he doesn’t think there is anything fundamental driving price action today. “A lot of the focus since Friday and over the weekend has been on positioning and trade flows, which have been extremely negative,” he said. “Seeing a bounce in spot prices today is more of a function of being sold down so heavily this month,” he added. “From a physical perspective we’ve seen mixed reactions from the recent sell off, with some grades still having trouble finding a bid, but there have been green shoots for some grades now pricing competitively enough to get a positive reaction from traders, indicating a near term fundamental floor for crude prices,” Leisen went on to state.

Rania Gule, a Senior Market Analyst at XS.com. In a market comment on September 12,, said oil prices will continue to experience significant volatility in the near term. “The ongoing strength of the U.S. dollar, disruptions from natural factors such as tropical storms, and geopolitical tensions and production interruptions in key countries all contribute to market instability,” Gule said in the comment. “However, a sharp collapse in prices seems unlikely, especially if OPEC continues to adjust production in line with global demand,” Gule added. “The big question remains how the market will respond to forthcoming geopolitical and economic events, and whether major economies will face sharp slowdowns affecting global oil demand,” Gule continued.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reduced its Brent and WTI spot price forecasts for 2024 and 2025 in its latest short term energy outlook (STEO), which was released recently. According to its September STEO, the EIA now sees the Brent spot price averaging $82.80 per barrel this year and $84.09 per barrel next year and the WTI spot price averaging $78.80 per barrel in 2024 and $79.63 per barrel in 2025.

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Gallant: Military action against Hezbollah only solution

Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said on Monday that only military action against Hezbollah can ensure the safe return of evacuated residents of northern Israel to their homes. Gallant made his remark during a meeting with United States President Joe Biden’s envoy Amos Hochstein who arrived in Israel on Monday to discuss the ongoing tensions in the Middle East with Israeli officials. The likelihood of a ceasefire deal with Hamas in Gaza is “running out” as Hezbollah continues to “tie itself” to the Gaza-based militant organization, it was stated in the meeting readout posted by Israel’s Defense Ministry. Tensions between Israel and Hezbollah along the Israel-Lebanon border are running high, with both parties conducting frequent attacks on their opponents’ positions amid speculations about a possible escalation of the conflict into a full-blown war.

Netanyahu said to sack Gallant as defense minister

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu intends to remove Yoav Gallant from his position as defense minister and appoint former justice minister Gideon Sa’ar as his replacement, Israeli Broadcasting Corporation reported on Monday, citing a source from the prime minister’s office. Netanyahu has threatened to dismiss Gallant multiple times in the past, mainly due to disagreements regarding military operations in Lebanon and Gaza. Gallant opposes an immediate attack and actively supports pursuing a diplomatic solution and implementing a ceasefire instead. In response to the reports, Netanyahu’s office said that “the publications regarding negotiations with Gideon Sa’ar [to replace Gallant] are incorrect.”

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Ukraine denies links to ‘delusional’ suspect in Trump assassination attempt

MOSCOW, Sept 16 (Reuters) – The Kremlin said on Monday that the Ukrainian links of the alleged shooter in the assassination attempt on former U.S. President Donald Trump showed that “playing with fire” had consequences.
The remark was a clear reference to the United States’ support of Ukraine against Russia. Washington has sent tens of billions of dollars of military aid to Kyiv in an attempt to help Ukrainian forces defeat Russia.
Officials say Secret Service agents spotted a rifle barrel poking out of the bushes as they were clearing holes on the course ahead of Trump, then fired on a gunman near the property line, only a few hundred yards from where the former president was playing. Asked about what the FBI called an apparent assassination attempt on Trump, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said:“It is not us who should be thinking, it is the U.S. intelligence services who should be thinking. In any case, playing with fire has its consequences.” Peskov, when asked if the assassination attempt risked destabilising the United States, said it was not really Russia’s business, though Russia was monitoring the situation. “We see how tense the situation is there, including between political competitors,” Peskov said. “The political struggle is escalating, and a variety of methods are being used.” CNN, Fox News and the New York Times identified the suspect as Ryan Wesley Routh, 58, of Hawaii, citing unidentified law enforcement officials.
Three social media accounts bearing Routh’s name suggest he was an avid supporter of Ukraine in its war against Russia. The New York Times reported it had interviewed Routh in 2023 for an article about Americans who were volunteering to help the Ukraine war effort.
Routh told the Times he’d travelled to Ukraine and spent several months there in 2022 and was trying to recruit Afghan soldiers who fled the Taliban to fight in Ukraine.

Our Standards: NN: Something is very Strange here.

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Ten Money Managers Exit Eisler as Hedge Fund’s Gains Stall

Hedge fund Eisler Capital has seen a fresh round of departures as its transformation into a multistrategy hedge fund faces a period of poor returns and an intense war for talent with peers. About 10 money managers have left the $4 billion hedge fund firm in recent days, according to people with knowledge of the matter. The exits include people leaving voluntarily as well as those the firm has dismissed, the people said, asking not to be identified because the details are private. New York-based senior money manager Mark Mallon, one of Eisler’s first employees, has left the company along with his team. Leo Niemelainen, who joined in February, has departed along with Matt Haigh, Will Bartlett, Hardeep Jhutti and Bernd Kuhlenschmidt. A representative for the London-based investment firm declined to comment. The money managers named in the story either didn’t respond or declined to comment. Eisler Capital employs around 300 people globally and its hedge fund gained 0.06% through August this year, Bloomberg News has reported previously. By comparison, the PivotalPath Multi-Strategy Index, which tracks 70 hedge funds managing a combined $342 billion, has climbed 6.5%, with established peers such as Marshall Wace, Schonfeld Strategic Advisors, Walleye Capital, Point72 Asset Management, Citadel and Millennium Management outperforming many peers. The churn at Eisler is on top of several traders who left the firm earlier this year after it largely pulled back from money-losing bets on emerging-markets interest rates and some of those departees disagreed over investment strategy with Sam Wisnia, a top deputy to founder Edward Eisler. Among those who left in the earlier round were portfolio managers including Ying Zhang, Devvrat Tripathi and Johan Kurtz, Bloomberg News reported in May. Founded in 2015 by Eisler, a former co-head of Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s global securities unit, Eisler Capital has been transforming itself into a multistrategy hedge fund from its roots in macro trading. It shuttered its first money pool in 2022 and ditched plans to start another so it could focus on deploying teams across strategies. Prior to the latest round of departures, Eisler had more than 60 investment teams that worked across fixed income, equity, macro and commodities strategies. Multistrategy hedge funds are constantly engaged in an intense war for talent and frequent hiring and departures of traders are common. Yet the churn at Eisler has drawn industry attention, with some money managers stopped from trading well before reaching some loss thresholds set by the firm.

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Orban: It is clear that Trump’s life is in danger

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban expressed on Monday concern for former US President Donald Trump’s safety following an assassination attempt at Trump’s Florida golf club. Orban took to social media, stating that Trump’s life would remain at risk until he wins the upcoming presidential election. “It is clear that President Trump’s life is in danger, until his victory. We are praying for you, Mr. President!” Orban wrote on X. The incident occurred when Secret Service agents opened fire on a man hiding in the bushes near the golf course. The suspect, armed with an AK-47 and other gear, fled but was later apprehended. The FBI has joined the investigation, and US authorities are treating the case as an attempt on Trump’s life. NN:  His security is still a joke. The trick is to keep the protected perimeter around Trump small. Still leaving him vulnerable to a sniper. The latest sniper  got within 400 yards The average sniper can easily hit a target from 800 yards. Now don’t get me started on what a slightly modified China DJI drone can do. They can be bought on Amazon for under $1000. Ask the Ukrainians.

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Palmer Luckey Wants to Be Silicon Valley’s War King

A red phone sits on Palmer Luckey’s desk at the Costa Mesa headquarters of his military tech company, Anduril Industries.

The phone is a genuine article from the U.S. nuclear command, once connected to the network that led to the bunkers dug into the Rockies west of Colorado Springs that could order up the apocalypse. Luckey owned the red phone before he started Anduril, back when he was only famous for inventing the Oculus virtual reality headset in a trailer in the driveway of his childhood home in Long Beach, then selling that company to Facebook for $2 billion at age 21.

Back then, the phone was just kitsch, a physical piece of history he could gaze at as he worked on VR for a social media company. But after he donated $10,000 to an anti-Hillary Clinton political group in the fall of 2016, then got fired from Facebook a few months later, the red phone changed from a prop to a proposition. Flush with cash, unemployed and annoyed at Silicon Valley, he decided to become a military mogul — possibly the first whose office uniform is a Hawaiian shirt, cargo shorts and flip-flops.

“That was the dream, to be the guy with the red phone who gets The Call,” Palmer, now 31, said in an interview at Anduril’s headquarters.

He founded his new enterprise with four others. One had worked with Luckey at Oculus, but the remaining three came from Palantir, the intelligence analytics software company founded by Peter Thiel, the billionaire tech investor and right-wing political donor. When Thiel founded Palantir in 2003, he named the firm after the magical seeing-stones from Tolkien’s “Lord of the Rings.” Luckey followed in Thiel’s footsteps. Anduril is the elvish name of the reforged sword of Aragorn, king of men and hero of the forces of good in Tolkien’s epic. Translated into English from Quenya, the name means “Flame of the West.” A replica of the sword from the “Lord of the Rings” films hangs on the wall in Anduril’s office.

Continue reading “Palmer Luckey Wants to Be Silicon Valley’s War King”

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Houthis: We struck Israel with hypersonic ballistic missile

The Iran-aligned Houthis who control northern Yemen hit central Israel with a missile for the first time on Sunday and promised more strikes to come in solidarity with the Palestinians.
Houthi military spokesman Yahya Sarea said the group struck with a new hypersonic ballistic missile that travelled 2,040 km (1270 miles) in just 11 1/2 minutes. Israel’s military said the missile fell in an open area and nobody was hurt.
Air raid sirens had sounded in Tel Aviv and across central Israel moments before the missile landed at around 6:35 a.m. local time (0335 GMT), sending residents running for shelter. Loud booms were heard, which the military said came from missile interceptors. “Following the sirens that sounded a short while ago in central Israel, a surface-to-surface missile was identified crossing into central Israel from the east and fell in an open area. No injuries were reported,” the Israeli military said. Previously, Houthi missiles have not penetrated deep into Israeli air space, with the only one reported to have hit Israeli territory falling in an open area near the Red Sea port of Eilat in March. Apart from missiles, the Houthis have also attacked Israel with drones, including one that hit Tel Aviv for the first time in July, killing a man and wounding four people. That attack prompted Israeli air strikes on Houthi military targets near the port of Hodeidah that killed six and wounded 80. Israel should expect more strikes in the future “as we approach the first anniversary of the Oct. 7 operation, including responding to its aggression on the city of Hodeidah,” Sarea said.
The deputy head of the Houthi’s media office, Nasruddin Amer, said in a post on X on Sunday that the missile had reached Israel after “20 missiles failed to intercept” it, describing it as the “beginning”.
The Israeli military also said that 40 projectiles were fired towards Israel from Lebanon on Sunday and were either intercepted or landed in open areas. “No injuries were reported,” the military said. NN: This weapon the Fattah is a Iranian built hypersonic medium-range ballistic missile unveiled in 2023. It is Iran’s first hypersonic ballistic missile. And this is its first deployment in the Middle East According to Iran, it can maneuver in and out of the atmosphere, and is capable of bypassing missile defenses. Israel shot over 20 rockets at it. From all 3 of  its anti missal defense systems and did not come close o hitting it
Netanyahu: Anyone hitting Israel won’t escape our reach

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu underlined on Sunday at a weekly cabinet meeting that anyone who strikes the country and its forces “will not escape our reach.” “The Houthis should have known by now that we exact a heavy price for any attempt to harm us. Those who need a reminder are welcome to visit the port of Hodeida,” he remarked. “We are in a multi-front campaign against Iran’s axis of evil, which is striving for our destruction,” Netanyahu stressed. His comments come following new Houthi threats. Previously, Houthi spokesperson Yahya Saree said the militant group’s hypersonic ballistic missile managed to go undetected by Israeli defense systems, striking the Jaffa area. Saree further warned more such operations would be carried out in the near future. NN: This lame response coming within a half hour of the attack shows how worried Israel is…. as it should be. Their is  no way to evacuate Tele Aviv.

 

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Standard Chartered Analysts Draw 3 Main Oil Conclusions from Past Week

In a report by Standard Chartered Bank Commodities Research Head Paul Horsnell  analysts at the company, including Horsnell, outlined that they had drawn three main oil market conclusions from the events of the past week.

“One – central bank expectations are key drivers of oil price volatility … two – the latest drive lower has been due to long liquidation, not new shorts … [and] three – machine learning can provide a useful early warning system,” the analysts stated in the report.

Looking at the first conclusion, the analysts noted in the report that, in their view, the past week “has confirmed that macro is king”.

“Regardless of energy market fundamentals and the geopolitical background, nothing affects oil price dynamics as much as changes in market expectations of central bank actions,” they added.

Focusing on the second conclusion, the analysts stated in the report that there has been 135.2 million barrels of long liquidation by money managers over the past two weeks across the four main Brent and WTI contracts.

“The closing of longs has outnumbered new shorts by roughly five-to-one; money-manger shorts increased by 27.4 million barrels over the past two weeks,” they said.

Looking at their third conclusion, the analysts noted in the report that, “while the market may have appeared almost unanalyzable recently, SCORPIO, our machine-learning oil price model picked up a number of large negatives”.

“Its indication for October Brent settlement on 5 August was $76.19 per barrel; the actual settlement was $76.30 per barrel,” they added.

Oil prices have been highly volatile over the past week, the analysts stated in the report, highlighting that Brent traded across a $6.75 per barrel range and hit a seven-month low of $75.05 per barrel intra-day on August 5.

“On a purely fundamental basis, we see scope for a swift rally back above $80 per barrel given robust demand and a significant Q3 global stockdraw,” the analysts said in the report.

“However … we think that macro expectations will tend to lead when expectations of central bank actions become volatile,” they added.

In a market comment  Hani Abuagla, a Senior Market Analyst at XTB MENA, warned that concerns about weakened demand and a potential U.S. recession could continue to weigh on the oil market.

“This is despite reduced output from Saudi Aramco and ongoing production cuts by OPEC+ aimed at stabilizing global prices,” Abuagla added.

“Traders could now turn their attention to the United States crude oil stocks change … A drop in crude inventory data could support oil prices to a certain extent although selling pressure could remain,” Abuagla continued.

In a separate t analysis by Antonio Ernesto Di Giacomo, a Senior Market Analyst at XS.com, noted that, “as the world awaits the … [U.S. crude oil stock] report, the industry remains vigilant for changes that could alter the delicate balance between supply and demand”.

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Oil Net Short For First Time in History

Brent crude oil is currently priced at $72.14 per barrel, showing a slight increase of $0.17 (+0.24%) for the day. However, behind this small rise is a much larger story unfolding in the oil markets. According to energy investor and market commentator Eric Nuttall, the financial demand for oil, known as

“net length,” has dropped to its lowest point in history. Essentially, “

net length” refers to the difference between the number of investors betting oil prices will rise (long positions) versus those betting they will fall (short positions). When net length is low, it means there is a reduced belief that prices will increase. What’s even more striking is that, for the first time ever, the paper market for Brent crude is “net short.” This means there are now more investors betting that oil prices will fall than those expecting them to rise. This is significant because it’s rare to see such pessimism in the market, especially when physical global oil inventories are falling at a rate of about a million barrels per day. Why does this matter? Typically, when oil supply is low, prices tend to rise due to scarcity. However, the current setup is unusual—while physical oil barrels are declining, the financial market appears to be betting on lower prices.

For contrarians who thrive on going against the crowd, this could signal an opportunity.

They may believe the market is underestimating the potential for future price increases, given the tight supply situation.

BlackMask Pod Cast:

you will never see this again
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Hamas vows to fight Israel ‘until occupation is defeated’

Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar sent a letter to Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in which he vowed the group would fight Israel until “the occupation is defeated and swept away from our land, and our independent state with full sovereignty is established with Jerusalem as its capital.” Sinwar thanked Nasrallah for Hezbollah’s support for the group during its conflict with Israel and for his condolences following the killing of previous Hamas head Ismail Haniyeh. In the letter published by Lebanese news outlet Al-Mayadeen, he also stated that “blessed convoys of martyrs will increase in strength and power in confronting the Nazi Zionist occupation.”