NN Audio Note:
Biden: Hamas ‘backing away’ from ceasefire deal
United States President Joe Biden accused Hamas of “backing away” from a ceasefire agreement with Israel in the Gaza conflict, as well as a potential prisoner exchange.
“It’s still in play, but you can’t predict,” he says as he prepares to leave Chicago after his farewell speech at the Democratic National Convention on Tuesday. “Israel says they can work it out… Hamas is now backing away.”
Hamas declined the most recent offer put forth by mediators after the Doha summit and subsequent talks in Cairo. They justified their refusal by stating that there were “new conditions regarding the prisoner exchange process and withdrawing from previous clauses in a way that does not allow reaching an agreement.” On his side, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that the agreement was “already in the first stage.”
Oil adds 1.80% on supply worries…… Oil Buying Opportunity May Have Arrived: Citi
The prices of oil futures rose on Thursday as investors reacted to the decline in exports of the commodity from the world’s largest oil exporter, Saudi Arabia, seemingly fueling uncertainty regarding oil’s global supply. Moreover, the US Energy Information Administration showed a bigger-than-expected reduction in the country’s stockpiles, further contributing to supply concerns. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for October’s deliveries soared by 1.85% at 11:37 am ET to sell for $73.26 per barrel. A minute later, Brent for October’s settlements surged by 1.80% to go for $77.43 per barrel.
Oil Buying Opportunity May Have Arrived: Citi
Citi: Brent’s 200-day moving average at $82.5 per barrel is a strong resistance point, while the $75 per barrel level serves as a key support
Citi Research, in a note dated August 21, sees this price pressure as a likely precursor to a rebound despite recent easing in geopolitical tensions. The recent price decline is primarily driven by two key factors: easing geopolitical risks, particularly in Gaza with a potential ceasefire on the horizon, and China’s economic slowdown. China’s weakened industrial production and softer oil imports data have weighed heavily on the global demand outlook, contributing to a reduction in the geopolitical risk premium for oil. However, Citi warns that the market isn’t out of the woods yet. While the geopolitical landscape appears calmer, risks remain. Hurricane season poses a significant threat to oil supply chains, and ongoing tensions in North Africa and the Middle East could easily reignite volatility. The current market positioning is historically short, which could spur a rebound if Brent dips further, especially as it nears the $75 per barrel support level. In the U.S., the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a significant drop in commercial crude oil inventories, which fell by 4.6 million barrels to 426 million barrels. This draw exceeded expectations and, along with increases in refinery runs and crude exports, adds a bullish tilt to the near-term outlook for crude. Citi also highlights technical factors influencing the market. Brent’s 200-day moving average at $82.5 per barrel is a strong resistance point, while the $75 per barrel level serves as a key support. This technical setup could encourage buying if prices approach the lower end of this range. Looking forward, Citi suggests that OPEC+ faces critical decisions. With production cuts set to ease in October—market conditions allowing—any further decline in prices toward the low $70s might prompt the group to reconsider its strategy. As refinery margins remain under pressure, especially from plummeting gasoil cracks, the upcoming winter season may be pivotal in shaping the market’s direction.
NN BlackMask Blog
OIL IS A SCREAMING BUY!!!!!
IDF troops find explosives in UNRWA bags in Gaza’s Rafah
UNRWA Under Fire Again: Explosives Found in Gaza School Compound, Israel Demands Accountability
IDF troops operating in Rafah’s Tel Sultan neighborhood found explosives in UNRWA-marked bags during a search of a facility located near schools, the military says in a statement. According to the statement, the Nahal Brigade’s 50th Battalion found guns, military vests, and enemy intelligence documents during the raid in the southern Gazan city. Additionally, forces part of the IDF’s 162nd Division directed airstrikes on a squad of armed terror operatives and terror sites in the neighborhood in recent days. As tensions rise, the Israeli government is pushing forward legislation to designate UNRWA as a “terror organization.” See above The IDF releases footage from the operations in Rafah. NN: i remember the good ole days when they kept coloring books and pencils in schools. Not machine guns and bombs like in Gaza And get this YOUR leaders believe you can make peace with these people…. Especially Under UN aide programs supplying weapons.
Sinwar Demands His Own Survival as Ceasefire Talks Implode
JERUSALEM, Israel – As the Israel-Hamas war enters its 321st day, ceasefire negotiations continue amid evolving demands and regional developments. Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar has reportedly added a new demand to the ceasefire negotiations: his own survival.An Egyptian official told Israeli media that Sinwar wants assurances he won’t be killed, despite previously stating he’d be proud to die fighting Israel.This as cracks may be forming in Palestinian support for the terror leader. On Tuesday, a Gaza woman interrupted a live Al Jazeera English broadcast from Gaza, shouting, “May Allah curse you, Sinwar and Hamas!” An unidentified man immediately hauled her away. Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu insists on maintaining an Israeli military presence along the Philadelphi Corridor at the Gaza-Egypt border. President Biden is reportedly pressuring Netanyahu to soften his stance, but with the IDF having found and destroyed 150 tunnels there in recent days, Israel believes it must guard the corridor to end Hamas threats permanently. “We are prepared for any scenario – both in defense and attack,” the prime minister declared. In Jerusalem, the stakes for a ceasefire deal couldn’t be higher. Iran and Hezbollah stand ready to strike if talks fail. One official told Politico, “If we don’t get a deal, there’s a chance that Iran attacks and this escalates into a full-blown confrontation.” Meanwhile, the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier group has arrived in Middle Eastern waters, joining another U.S. carrier already in the region. This bolstered military presence adds a new factor to the regional calculus Netanyahu remains resolute in Israel’s military readiness. During a tour of an Air Force base, he declared, “The Air Force is our iron fist that knows how to hit the soft underbelly of our enemies.” NN: He is such a piece of work he deserves 300 virgins…
Ukraine hits fuel ferry in Kavkaz port, Russia
The Ukrainian Armed Forces targeted the railroad ferry Conro Trader carrying fuel tanks in the port of Kavkaz, located in Russia’s Krasnodar region, Crimea, resulting in a massive fire at the location, local officials reported on Thursday. “Another attempted terrorist attack on the territory of the Krasnodar region was carried out by the Kiev regime – a railroad ferry with fuel tanks in the port of ‘Kavkaz’ was attacked. Emergency and special services are working on the site,” the operational headquarters of the Krasnodar Territory said through its Telegram channel. Reports added that Ukrainian forces used a Neptune anti-ship missile during the attack. As of now, details regarding the extent of the fire and any potential casualties remain undisclosed.
Saudi Arabian oil exports at three-year low in June
The value of Saudi Arabia’s oil exports in June landed at 66.3 billion riyals, or approximately $17.7 billion, declining by 9.3% compared to the same month in 2024 to the lowest level in three years, the country’s General Authority for Statistics (GASTAT) revealed in its report published on Thursday. Year-on-year, the figure stood at 73.2 billion riyals, or about $19.5 billion. The document noted that a decrease in oil exports was the main contributor to the overall drop in the country’s merchandise exports in the sixth month of this year. In the second quarter of 2024, the share of oil exports in the total figure went down from 77.4% registered in the same trimester in 2023 to 75%.
Biden to urge Netanyahu for more flexibility on Gaza-Egypt border…..Netanyahu has not eased stance on Philadelphi Corridor
United States President Joe Biden is expected to urge Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to show greater flexibility regarding Israeli military presence along the Philadelphi Corridor on the Egypt-Gaza border to facilitate a ceasefire and hostage agreement, sources told Axios on Wednesday.
The Biden-Netanyahu telephone conversation will take place later today. Namely, the dispute over control of the Philadelphi Corridor emerged during recent negotiations, with Israel seeking to retain control while Hamas demanded a complete Israeli withdrawal from the area.
Netanyahu’s demand was also faced with opposition from Egypt, which is said to be insisting on Israel’s full withdrawal from the corridor and the Rafah border crossing, an insider previously told Al-Qahera News channel. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken also stressed that Washington is against “long-term” Israeli occupation of the Gaza Strip upon his departure from Doha.
Netanyahu has not eased stance on Philadelphi Corridor
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has not changed his position on maintaining military control over the Philadelphi Corridor, an unnamed diplomatic source in the Prime Minister’s Office says. The source denies a claim by US officials who told The Washington Post that Netanyahu offered certain concessions on the matter in a call with US President Joe Biden yesterday. The Philadelphi Corridor runs along the Gaza-Egypt border, where Hamas for years smuggled in arms and weapons components. Netanyahu has insisted that Israel will not withdraw from the route to prevent Hamas from rearming.
NN BlackMask Blog:
Philly Cheesesteak
Greek Oil Tanker Drifting, Ablaze after Repeated Attacks in the Red Sea
A Greek-flagged oil tanker traveling through the Red Sea came under repeated attack Wednesday, leaving the vessel “not under command” and drifting ablaze after an assault suspected to have been carried out by Yemen’s Houthi militants, the British military said. The attack, the most serious in the Red Sea in weeks, comes during a months long campaign by Houthis targeting ships over the Israel-Hamas war in the Gaza Strip that has disrupted a trade route through which $1 trillion in cargo typically passes each year. In the attack, men on small boats first opened fire with small arms about 140 kilometers (90 miles) west of the Houthi-held Yemeni port city of Hodeidah, the British military’s United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations center said. Four projectiles also hit the ship, it added. It wasn’t immediately clear if that meant drones or missiles. “The vessel reports being not under command,” the UKMTO said, likely meaning it lost all power. “No casualties reported.” Later, the UKMTO warned the ship was drifting while on fire in the Red Sea. The Greek shipping ministry later identified the vessel as the tanker Sounion, which had 25 crew members on board at the time of the attack as it traveled from Iraq to Cyprus.
Later Wednesday, the UKMTO reported a second ship being targeted in the Gulf of Aden by three explosions that occurred in the water close to it, though they caused no damage. The Houthis did not immediately claim responsibility for the attacks, though it can take them hours or even days before they acknowledge their assaults. However, they did acknowledge US airstrikes in Hodeidah, something the American military’s Central Command said destroyed a Houthi surface-to-air missile and radar system. The last three recent attacks, including Wednesday’s, targeted vessels associated with Delta Tankers, a Greek company. Early Thursday, the US military’s Central Command said the Lincoln had reached the Mideast’s waters, without elaborating.
Standard Chartered Says Oil Demand Hit All Time High in June
In a report sent late Tuesday by Standard Chartered Bank Commodities Research Head Paul Horsnell, analysts at the company, including Horsnell, said global oil demand reached an all-time high in June. “The release of Joint Oil Data Initiative (JODI) data on 19 August has, together with a variety of national sources, allowed us to make a first calculation of actual global oil demand in June; we put demand at 103.01 million barrels per day,” the analysts stated in the report. “Following JODI revisions, we now estimate May demand at 102.68 million barrels per day, the second-highest monthly average after June,” they added. “Year on year demand growth was 788,000 barrels per day in June, a deceleration from 1.267 million barrels per day in May and 2.129 million barrels per day in April,” they continued. The analysts noted in the report that average growth was 1.521 million barrels per day year on year in the second quarter of 2024, which they pointed out was close to their forecast for 2024 full-year growth. “We expect demand to remain above 103 million barrels per day for the rest of 2024, before falling seasonally to 101.9 million barrels per day in January,” the analysts added. “We calculate that global supply increased 160,000 barrels per day month on month to 102.097 million barrels per day in June, still well below December 2023’s all-time high of 103.162 million barrels per day,” they said. In the report, the Standard Chartered analysts warned that, “while the global numbers appear bullish, market dynamics have remained extremely bearish”.
“The key support for Brent is the 5 August low of $75.05 per barrel; below that level we would expect a period of relatively chaotic and algorithmic-dominated trading given the high degree of dislocation from fundamental influences,” they warned.
“However, in terms of pure global supply and demand dynamics, we see little justification for a sustained period of trading below $80 per barrel,” the analysts highlighted. The Standard Chartered analysts stated in the report that the latest slide in prices has been ascribed in much media and analyst commentary to a reduction in the geopolitical risk premium, consequent on progress towards a bridging agreement that might allow a ceasefire in Gaza to be discussed further. They said in the report, however, that they are unconvinced by that explanation. “We do not subscribe to the concept of a geopolitical risk premium, but even if it was a useful way of analyzing markets, a reduction in the premium would be associated with the closing out of long positions,” they added. “What we have observed over the past week has primarily been an opening of new short positions,” they continued.