Financial markets across the Middle East tumbled Monday, as concerns over a potential Iranian attack on Israel added to bearish sentiment spawned by the ongoing global equity rout. Israel’s equity benchmark, the TA-35 Index, slid as much as 3.1%, to trade at the lowest since February, extending last week’s 3.3% slide — the biggest weekly loss since last October. The shekel fell as much as 1% against the dollar to trade nearly at a nine-month low, while its $3 billion eurobond maturing 2023 was quoted lower.The latest losses were sparked in part by an Axios report that US Secretary of State Antony Blinken had told his G-7 counterparts that Iran and its ally Hezbollah could attack as early as Monday. Citing three unidentified sources briefed on the call, Axios said Blinken saw the attacks starting in the next 24 to 48 hours. However, regional markets were also feeling the heat from a global selloff that’s been fueled by signs of a worse-than-expected US economic slowdown. The growth concerns also weighed on oil prices, sending crude futures to a seven-month low. The Saudi Tadawul Index and Egypt’s Hermes benchmark shed as much as 3.7% and 5.8% respectively. Turkey’s Borsa Istanbul 100 Index was the hardest hit, sliding more than 7% at one point. “There remains much greater risk to asset prices in Israel, Lebanon, and Iran, with the latter fully sanctioned for foreign investors anyway, than anywhere else in the region,” he added. But with the conflict threatening to escalate, markets will likely remain under pressure. The shekel was down for the sixth straight day, while the Egyptian pound slid as much as 1.6% against the dollar to trade at a five-month low. Yields on Egypt’s May 2050 dollar bonds exceeded 12%, advancing for the sixth day to their highest level since February, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Gallant: Army should be ready for ‘quick transition to offense’
Israel’s Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said on Monday that the country’s military should be prepared for a “quick transition to offense” in case of an anticipated Iranian and Hezbollah attack on Israel, following last week’s Israeli strikes on Beirut and Tehran. “Our enemies are carefully considering their steps thanks to the abilities you have demonstrated in the last year. However, we must prepare for all possibilities, including a quick transition to offense,” Gallant stated during his visit to the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) headquarters in Tel Aviv. Previously, sources told Axios that the United States and Israeli officials expect Iran to carry out its retaliatory attack on Israel on Monday.
Users report issues with online trading platforms
Numerous users reported issues with the online trading services of Fidelity Investments, The Charles Schwab Corporation, and The Vanguard Group Inc., Downdetector’s data showed on Monday. Most problems reported include mobile brokerage and online brokerage. Meanwhile, Fidelity acknowledged the issue in a post on X, formerly Twitter. The news came amid a drop in the prices of cryptocurrencies linked to a plunge in Wall Street.
Iran says it does not want regional escalation but must ‘punish’ Israel
DUBAI, Aug 5 (Reuters) – Iran is not looking to escalate regional tensions but believes it needs to punish Israel to prevent further instability, the foreign ministry spokesperson said on Monday, following the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran last week.
“Iran seeks to establish stability in the region, but this will only come with punishing the aggressor and creating deterrence against the adventurism of the Zionist regime (Israel),” Nasser Kanaani said, adding that action from Tehran was inevitable. Kanaani called on the United States to stop supporting Israel, saying the international community had failed in its duty to safeguard stability in the region and should support the “punishment of the aggressor.” The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps’ top Commander Hossein Salami on Monday reiterated the elite group’s threat that Israel “will receive punishment in due time”. Tehran and Iran-aligned groups such as Hamas and Hezbollah have accused Israel of killing Haniyeh on 31st July. Israeli officials have not claimed responsibility. NN: Says the head of a murdering regime. Wakes up every day screaming death to Israel… Death to America. Who supplies weapons to murdering terrorist organizations the world over.
Egypt to reportedly not back Israel if Iran attacks
The Egyptian government held a conversation with Israeli officials in which withdrew any military support to defend Israeli territory in case Iran decided to perform a retaliatory attack after the killing of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh. According to The Times of Israel on Monday citing Qatari media sources, Egypt also informed Tehran that it would prohibit any military activities in its airspace that could jeopardize regional stability. Egyptian officials clarified to their Iranian counterparts that this decision should not be seen as an act of hostility towards Iran, but as a measure to protect Egypt’s sovereignty. The discussions with both parties allegedly took place during a meeting in Cairo.
Oil nears 8-month low on US recession fears….. Ignores coming war in the Middle East
Oil extended losses from the lowest close in seven months as a selloff in wider financial markets countered rising tensions in the Middle East, with traders watching for a potential retaliatory strike on Israel by Iran. Brent futures slipped below $76 a barrel — erasing this year’s gains — after closing at their lowest since early January on Friday. West Texas Intermediate dropped below $72. A rout in global equities worsened on Monday on concerns around the economic outlook. Still, the market is bracing for a possible attack from Iran and regional militias against Israel in retaliation for assassinations of Hezbollah and Hamas officials. The US has sent defensive reinforcements to the region.
Oil has notched four weeks of declines on signals of faltering demand in the US and China, with the Asian nation rolling out plans to spur domestic consumption over the weekend. OPEC+ supply cuts and concerns the conflict in the Middle East could impact production from the region had supported prices. “While there are growing demand concerns, geopolitical risks continue to hang over the oil market,” Warren Patterson, head of commodities strategy at ING Groep NV in Singapore, said in a note. He added that an escalation in the Middle East may lead to short-term volatility, but a disruption to crude supply is needed to see sustained price strength. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken told his G-7 counterparts on Sunday that an attack on Israel by Iran and Hezbollah could begin as early as Monday, Axios reported, citing three unidentified sources briefed on the call. The US doesn’t know the exact timing, Blinken said but sees the strikes starting in the next 24 to 48 hours, according to the report.
Saudi Arabia raised the price of its flagship crude to Asia for the first time in three months, a tentative sign that the kingdom remains confident about demand in the region. It made significant cuts for Europe and the US.
Libya’s internationally recognized government alleged “political blackmail” as production began to be cut at the OPEC nation’s largest oil field. Production at Sharara has dropped by at least 50,000 barrels a day to 210,000 since employees received orders to trim the southern field’s output on Saturday night, according to people familiar with the matter. They asked not to be identified as they aren’t authorized to speak to the media. The North African nation is split between dueling administrations in the capital in the west, Tripoli, and a rival in the east. It wasn’t immediately clear what prompted the decision or whether output would be further curtailed. NN: The great oil giveaway. Make sure you get some.
Israeli military: 30 rockets launches from Lebanon overnight…….Biden ‘hopes’ Iran won’t launch revenge attack on Israel…… American Lefties NOW Selling Out Israel
The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) shared on Sunday that 30 rockets were launched from the Lebanese territory at the Israeli border town of Beit Hillel. According to the Israeli military, most of the rockets were intercepted by air defenses, with one hitting the Beit Hillel and some falling in the open areas. The Israeli forces also launched retaliatory airstrikes targeting the positions used by Hezbollah militants in southern Lebanon. No casualties have been reported so far.
Biden ‘hopes’ Iran won’t launch revenge attack on Israel
United States President Joe Biden expressed hope that Iran will refrain from responding to Israel’s attack which killed Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. In response to a journalist’s question about whether Iran would stand down from seeking revenge for Haniyeh’s killing, Biden said, “I hope so. I don’t know.” Meanwhile, top officials from the United States and Israel have indicated that they expect Iran to launch a retaliatory attack on Israel as soon as Monday in response to the deaths of Hezbollah senior commander Fuad Shukr and the Hamas political leader. NN Audio file:
Lefty Liberals WOK, LGBT, fagots, HOMO, COMMIES, Selling OUT Israel and you
US allegedly looking to send more fighter jets to Middle East……US The USS Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group
The United States is planning to send more combat aircraft to the Middle East amid rising tensions, the New York Times reported on Friday citing American officials. One military official revealed that the country’s forces located in the aforementioned region are taking “necessary measures” to boost combat readiness and defend both the US and its partners from potential attacks Iran and its proxies might conduct. Another source shared that the number of additional planes is yet to be decided. Furthermore, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin is yet to give his final blessing for the motion. Meanwhile, Department of Defense Deputy Press Secretary Sabrina Singh said that the US plans to bolster “force protection” in the Middle East.
USS Lincoln Carrier Strike Group to deploy to the Middle East
West Coast carrier USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN-72) is setting sail to the Middle East from the Pacific to relieve the carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt (CVN-71) and its strike group. Meanwhile, the Navy is sending additional ships to the region following threats from Iran, Pentagon officials announced on Friday evening. “To maintain a carrier strike group presence in the Middle East, the Secretary has ordered the Lincoln Carrier Strike Group to replace the Theodore Roosevelt Carrier Strike Group, currently on deployment in the Central Command area of responsibility,” reads the Pentagon statement. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, “has ordered additional ballistic missile defense-capable cruisers and destroyers to the U.S. European Command and U.S. Central Command regions. The Department is also taking steps to increase our readiness to deploy additional land-based ballistic missile defense.” The U.S. moves to bolster military presence in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East follows reports that Iranian military officials and proxy forces in Lebanon, Iraq and Yemen will meet to discuss options to retaliate against Israel following the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. “Iran and the resistance members will conduct a thorough assessment after the meeting in Tehran to find the best and most effective way to retaliate against [Israel],” a senior Iranian official told newswire Reuters. The Pentagon also announced the deployment of unspecified fighter squadrons headed to the region.“The Secretary of Defense has reiterated that the United States will protect our personnel and interests in the region, including our ironclad commitment to the defense of Israel,” reads the statement from the Pentagon.
Oil May Hit $200 on Broader Middle East Conflict
Michael Rubin, a Senior Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI), outlined that a broader conflict in the Middle East “is growing likelier”. “Look, the collective policy of the United States, Europe, and the UN has for decades been to kick the can down the road,” he said.
“Eventually the road runs out. Did anyone really think that Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis were arming themselves with ever-more sophisticated missiles and drones because they wanted them as backdrops for a parade?” he added.
And what would a broader conflict in the Middle East mean for oil prices?
“There would be a spike,” Rubin sid, “perhaps as high as $200 per barrel,” he added.
“Throw civil war in Venezuela into the mix, and maybe $250 per barrel,” he continued. “But markets adjust. Demand reduces. Plus, the Middle East no longer has the monopoly over oil and gas it once did. There’s fracking, Nigeria, Alberta. offshore U.S., and many more locations that can help blunt the impact, even in the short-term, should governments choose to allow them to do so,” Rubin went on to state.
Maritime intelligence company Dryad Global advised its clients that the past two weeks have seen an unprecedented sequence of escalatory events that have the potential to lead to a major flare-up in the Middle East.“This sequence of escalatory events will likely lead to retaliatory attacks on Israeli territory and assets in the coming days,” Dryad warned.
“It is assessed that these are highly likely to impact commercial shipping through increased Houthi airstrikes on merchant vessels in the Red Sea, Gulf of Aden, and Arabian Sea, as well as IRGCN seizures of merchant vessels in the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman,” it added.
The company noted that “in line with this heightened risk”, it advises against “all transit of Israeli-linked vessels within the Red Sea, Gulf of Aden, Gulf of Oman, and the Persian Gulf until further notice”.
Matthey Bey, a senior analyst at RANE, told Rigzone that Iran and Hezbollah “will almost certainly retaliate in some form to the two … assassinations in recent days” and added that the scale could approach the size of Iran’s attack on Israel in April.
“The scale and manner of any Israeli retaliation will likely be dependent on the scale of Iran and its allies’ attack on Israel and whether or not there is significant damage or casualties.”
Bey said any escalation in the conflict would add a few dollars to oil prices as a risk premium, a conflict in Lebanon would not necessarily directly affect the Middle East’s oil and gas production located in countries like Iraq and Saudi Arabia, which he said means there may not be a change in the long-term oil supply and demand balance.
“However, if the United States gets involved and does so through deploying military assets based in Gulf Cooperation Council countries, Iran and its proxies could return to targeting GCC oil and gas infrastructure, which may have a more significant impact on the physical supply of oil if a crucial node is hit as was the case in the 2019 attack on the Abqaiq oil processing facility,” he said.
“With the exception of potential Hezbollah strikes targeting Israeli gas production and processing facilities, Iran and its allies’ initial round of retaliation is unlikely to target oil and gas production throughout the region,” he added.
“Prices would initially rise sharply if this conflict occurred, and then move towards a level that retains a higher risk premium but nearer the level that reflected actual (if any) changes in oil production or flows,” he said.
Josephine Mills, an Analyst at Enverus Intelligence Research confirmed that the Middle East produces over 20 percent of the world’s oil production and warned that any disruption to this production and/or ability to export crude to market would result in an increase to oil prices. “Iran alone contributes ~3.4 million barrels per day. If even just 15 percent of their production was impacted it would increase our 2H24 price forecast by ~$3,” Mills added.
OPEC+ to Reevaluate Production Cuts as Brent Crude Prices Falter
OPEC maintained steady oil production in July, averaging 26.99 million barrels per day—a slight decrease of 60,000 bpd from June levels, according to a Bloomberg survey. Venezuela and Iran accounted for most of the 60,000 bpd dip, with both countries experiencing decreased demand from China. OPEC and its allies held a monitoring meeting earlier this week as the group hopes to gradually unwind its production cuts starting in Q4. OPEC has cautioned, however, that any changes to its planned supply increases will depend on market conditions.Despite escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, crude futures have declined, leaving Brent crude below $80 a barrel. This drop poses challenges for OPEC+ nations, with Saudi Arabia in particular facing a four-quarter growth slump, forcing it to slash investments in key economic projects. In July, Saudi Arabia maintained its output at 9 million bpd, largely in line with its OPEC+ quota. Algeria and Kuwait also stayed within their targets. Iraq and the UAE, however, continued to exceed their production limits. Iraq increased its output by 30,000 bpd to 4.28 million bpd, Bloomberg’s survey showed. Russia and Kazakhstan, along with Iraq, have pledged additional cuts to compensate for their chronic overproduction throughout the duration of the production cut agreement. Venezuela and Iran, exempt from the current OPEC+ agreement, saw the largest declines in July. Venezuela’s output dropped by 60,000 bpd to 830,000 bpd, and Iran’s production fell by 50,000 bpd to 3.26 million bpd. Both countries rely heavily on sales to China, which is expected to reduce imports amid slowing economic growth. Bloomberg’s analysis is based on ship-tracking data, information from officials, and estimates from consultants, including FGE, Kpler Ltd., and Rapidan Energy Group.