Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the week ending August 9, 2024
U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 1.4 million barrels from the previous week. At 430.7 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 5% below the five year average for this time of year.
U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 16.5 million barrels per day during the week ending August 9, 2024, which was 65 thousand barrels per day more than the previous week’s average. Refineries operated at 91.5% of their operable capacity last week. Gasoline production decreased last week, averaging 9.7 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel production decreased last week, averaging 4.8 million barrels per day. U.S. crude oil imports averaged 6.3 million barrels per day last week, increased by 61 thousand barrels per day from the previous week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged about 6.6 million barrels per day, 2.0% less than the same four-week period last year. Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 578 thousand barrels per day, and distillate fuel imports averaged 81 thousand barrels per day. Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 2.9 million barrels from last week and are about 3% below the five year average for this time of year. Both finished gasoline and blending components inventories decreased last week. Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 1.7 million barrels last week and are about 7% below the five year average for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories increased by 2.2 million barrels from last week and are 14% above the five year average for this time of year. Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 3.1 million barrels last week. Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 20.6 million barrels a day, down by 1.7% from the same period last year. Over the past four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied averaged 9.2 million barrels a day, up by 2.2% from the same period last year. Distillate fuel product supplied averaged 3.7 million barrels a day over the past four weeks, down by 2.3% from the same period last year. Jet fuel product supplied was up 1.6% compared with the same four-week period last year
Hamas says it will not take part in Thursday talks
Israel has said it will attend
US Secretary of State reported to have postponed trip
Iran could hold back attack on Israel with Gaza truce
Biden adviser visits Lebanon for deescalation talks
CAIRO, Aug 14 (Reuters) – The Palestinian Islamist group Hamas said on Wednesday it would not take part in a new round of Gaza ceasefire talks slated for Thursday in Qatar, dimming hopes for a negotiated truce that Iranian sources say could hold back an Iranian attack on Israel.
The U.S. has said it expects indirect talks to go ahead as planned in Qatar’s capital Doha on Thursday, and that a ceasefire agreement was still possible. However Axios reported that U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has postponed a trip to the Middle East that had been expected to begin on Tuesday. The conflict has left the enclave with no clean running water, Three senior Iranian officials have said that only a ceasefire deal in Gaza would hold Iran back from direct retaliation against Israel for the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh on its soil last month. The Israeli government said it would send a delegation to Thursday’s talks, but Hamas, the Palestinian militant group that controls Gaza, requested a workable plan to implement a proposal it has already accepted rather than more talks. “Hamas is committed to the proposal presented to it on July 2, which is based on the U.N. Security Council resolution and the Biden speech and the movement is prepared to immediately begin discussion over a mechanism to implement it,” Senior Hamas official Sami Abu Zuhri told Reuters.
“Going to new negotiation allows the occupation to impose new conditions and employ the maze of negotiation to conduct more massacres,” he added.
There has been no let-up in fighting in Gaza, where residents of the southern city of Khan Younis said Israeli forces blew up homes in the east and intensified tank shelling on eastern areas of the city centre.
Israel said it was responding to Hamas rocket fire towards Tel Aviv on Tuesday and had struck rocket launching pads and militants among 40 military targets over 24 hours, including in central Gaza, Khan Younis, and western Rafah in the south. Armed groups of Hamas and the Islamic Jihad said they had attacked Israeli forces in several areas, while Palestinian health officials said Israeli strikes had killed at least 14 people so far on Wednesday, mostly in the centre and south. Hamas also said its fighters were engaged in fierce clashes with Israeli forces in another Palestinian territory, the Israeli-occupied West Bank, where Israel said it had killed a number of militants. A ceasefire deal would aim to end fighting in Gaza and ensure the release of Israeli hostages held in the enclave in return for many Palestinians jailed by Israel, but the two sides remain divided by sequencing and other issues.
Hamas wants an agreement to end the war and a withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza as a basic pre-condition for releasing hostages, while Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says he will only agree to a pause in fighting to allow as many hostages to return as possible. He has repeatedly said the war can only end when Hamas is eradicated.
In an attempt to deter a separate escalation between Iran-backed Hezbollah and Israel, after the latter killed a senior Hezbollah commander in Beirut’s southern suburbs last month, Amos Hochstein, a senior adviser to U.S. President Joe Biden, landed in Beirut on Wednesday. Hochstein will meet with Lebanese caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati and parliament speaker Nabih Berri, who heads the armed Amal movement, which is allied to Hezbollah and has also fired rockets on Israel. “We are facing uncertain opportunities for diplomacy, which is now moving to prevent war and stop Israeli aggression,” Mikati said in a speech ahead of a cabinet meeting on Wednesday.
Mikati said talks with Arab and Western leaders had intensified due to the seriousness of the situation in Lebanon and the region.
The Lebanese militant group Hezbollah and Iran are said to be planning a “direct attack” on Israel should negotiations on a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip fail. A possible ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas, which is anticipated to be reached this week, could only prevent Iran from launching a retaliatory attack for the assassination of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh, according to Iranian sources who spoke to Reuters under the condition of anonymity.US ambassador to Turkey, Jeff Flake, previously stated that Washington has urged Ankara to encourage Tehran to de-escalate tensions in the region. However, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Nasser Kanaani emphasized that Western appeals for Tehran to avoid a retaliatory response “lack political logic.” NN: Sounds like things ae escalating to me.
United States Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic expressed Tuesday confidence in the recent inflation data, indicating progress toward the Fed’s 2% target.
However, he emphasized the need for more data to confirm this trend. “It would be really bad if we cut rates and then had to raise them again,” Bostic warned, highlighting the cautious approach the Fed is taking.
While Bostic acknowledged that the Fed’s current rate posture is restrictive, he believes it’s necessary to ensure inflation remains under control. He hinted at a potential rate cut by the end of the year, provided the economy evolves as expected.
The Lebanese militant group Hezbollah and Iran are said to be planning a “direct attack” on Israel should negotiations on a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip fail. A possible ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas, which is anticipated to be reached this week, could only prevent Iran from launching a retaliatory attack for the assassination of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh, according to Iranian sources who spoke to Reuters under the condition of anonymity. ambassador to Turkey, Jeff Flake, previously stated that Washington has urged Ankara to encourage Tehran to de-escalate tensions in the region. However, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Nasser Kanaani emphasized that Western appeals for Tehran to avoid a retaliatory response “lack political logic.”
DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — As Iran threatens to respond to the suspected Israeli assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, the regional militias that the Islamic Republic has armed for decades could play a role in any attack. In April following an Israeli attack on the Iranian Embassy compound in Syria, Iran launched 170 bomb-carrying drones, more than 30 cruise missiles and more than 120 ballistic missiles toward Israel. Israel, the U.S. and other nations shot down many of the projectiles, some of which came from Yemen. Iran could launch a similar assault, but this time Hezbollah may get involved as the militia seeks revenge for the Israeli strike last week killing senior commander Fouad Shukur. Such an assault could strain Israeli air defenses, meaning more missile strikes raising the risk of casualties — and of a further escalation experts fear could lead to a wider regional war. Iran, including over its nuclear program, have kept it from receiving new arms while Israel and Gulf Arab states allied with the U.S. have received advanced weapons. While developing its own missile program, Iran can’t match those sophisticated weapons. It relies on militias as an asymmetric threat to squeeze both Israel and the United States. Iran’s arming began in earnest in the 1980s with Shiite forces in Lebanon fighting against Israel. They became the Hezbollah militia. The arming expanded with the 2003 U.S.-led invasion of Iraq that toppled dictator Saddam Hussein, a longtime foe of Tehran. Iran strongly backed Syrian President Bashar Assad in his country’s long war. And Iran has continued when the opportunity has arisen, even arming Sunni militants while viewing itself as the world’s defender of Shiite Muslims. Those relationships are managed by Iran’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guard, one of the most powerful armed groups in the Middle East.
The militias in Iran’s self-described “Axis of Resistance” include these:
In Iraq, Iran supported a slew of forces that mobilized in 2014 to battle the Islamic State group. Those state-sanctioned, mainly Shiite militias, known as the Popular Mobilization Forces, have grown into a powerful political faction, armed with rockets, drones and other weaponry. The International Institute for Strategic Studies puts their strength at some 180,000 fighters. Other smaller or little-known militant groups have emerged and claimed attacks against U.S. forces as well amid this Israel-Hamas war. Iran-backed armed groups attacked U.S. personnel in Iraq more than 60 times between October and Feb. 4, according to the Congressional Research Service. The deadliest came on Jan. 28, when the U.S. said a drone launched by Iranian-backed Iraqi militias hit a facility known as Tower 22 in Jordan on the Syrian border, killing three American troops and wounding dozens of others. In response, U.S. airstrikes hit more than 85 targets at seven locations, including command and control headquarters, intelligence centers, rockets and missiles, drone and ammunition storage sites and other facilities connected to the militias or the Guard’s expeditionary Quds Force.
Hezbollah formed in 1982 amid Israel’s occupation of southern Lebanon. Israel remains highly wary of Hezbollah, particularly over the vast missile arsenal it is believed to possess and its battle-hardened forces who also supported Assad in Syria. While Israel has sophisticated missile defenses including its Iron Dome system, a mass barrage of fire from Hezbollah and others at the same time could overwhelm the country. Estimates suggest Hezbollah has an arsenal of 150,000 rockets and missiles, including precision-guided missiles. The militia also has been blamed for suicide bombings in the past, including a 1983 bombing in Beirut that killed 241 American servicemen, though the group maintains it wasn’t behind the attack. Hezbollah also has drones and surface-to-air missile systems. Hezbollah’s forces number as many as 25,000 full-time fighters, with additional tens of thousands in reserves, according to an Israeli military assessment. Hezbollah’s leader Hassan Nasrallah in 2021 said the group had 100,000 trained fighters.
Despite being Sunni, both the Palestinian militant group Hamas and Islamic Jihad have received weaponry and other materiel from Iran. The groups, however, have been struck hard by Israel since the Oct. 7 Hamas attack that began the war, which saw militants kill 1,200 people and take 250 others hostage. Israel’s war on Hamas in the Gaza Strip since has killed at least 39,580 Palestinians, according to Gaza’s Health Ministry, which does not distinguish between civilians and combatants in its count. Israel’s military says it has killed roughly 15,000 militants in the war.
The Houthis have held Yemen’s capital, Sanaa, since 2014 as part of that country’s ruinous war. They follow the Shiite Zaydi faith, a branch of Shiite Islam that is almost exclusively found in Yemen. While broadly an insurgent force, the group with Iran’s support is now able to launch drone and missile attacks that have drastically disrupted shipping in the Red Sea corridor and now even reach Israel. The U.S. Navy’s efforts at stopping the shipping attacks have led to the most intense continuous combat its sailors have faced since World War II, but has yet to end the assaults. The amount of direct command Iran wields over the Houthis, however, remains a matter of debate among experts. The Houthis’ attacks have raised their international profile while cracking down on dissent at home. The rebels claim they’ve recruited 200,000 additional fighters since launching their attacks. The rebels and their allies have a fighting force of some 20,000 fighters, according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
Oil capped its biggest daily gain since October as fears of a potential Iranian response to last month’s assassination of a Hamas leader in Tehran outweighed a dip in broader markets. West Texas Intermediate crude soared $3.22 to settle above $80 a barrel. Tehran reiterated Sunday its determination to punish Israel for the killing, as the US shored up naval and air forces in the Middle East. The US benchmark crossed above its 200-day moving average, a move that supercharged upward momentum.
“Algorithmic trend followers still hold dry powder in Brent crude, suggesting aggressions from Iranian soil could still spark additional buying activity from this cohort,” said Dan Ghali, a commodity strategist at TD Securities.
The gains signal a possible shift in money managers’ positioning. Last week, macroeconomic gloom prompted hedge funds and algorithmic traders to roll back their net-long wager in ICE Brent to the smallest since the data was first published in 2011. Bullish bets on gasoline and diesel in the US were also at multiyear lows. Traders will be looking to market reports this week for more clarity on supply and demand balances. OPEC on Monday trimmed forecasts for global oil demand this year and next. The International Energy Agency will publish its monthly outlook Tuesday, which will be followed by US inflation data Wednesday.
The prices of oil futures continued to rise on Monday after the White House expressed its concerns that Iran could attack Israel and that it could happen this week, fueling worries about the export of the commodity from the Middle East. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for September’s settlements skyrocketed by 3.51% at 1:54 pm ET to sell for $79.48 per barrel. At that time, Brent for October’s deliveries gained 2.71% to go for $81.82 per barrel.
Gold up by 1.6% on Middle East concerns
The prices of precious metals rose on Monday after Israel and the United States voiced concerns that Iran could attack the former country, seemingly turning traders to safer investments such as those in gold. Gold increased by 1.61% at 2:23 pm ET to sell for $2,469.61 per ounce. At the same minute, silver grew by 1.87% to go for $27.96 per ounce. Platinum went up by 1.77% to sell for $942.27 per ounce. Palladium advanced by 1.60%, going for $911.52 per ounce.
Israel keeps up strikes across Gaza Strip as it battles Hamas
Israel says Iran is preparing attacks, raising fears of wider confrontation
Hamas is sceptical about new international ceasefire call
CAIRO, Aug 12 (Reuters) – Israeli forces pressed on with operations near the southern Gaza city of Khan Younis on Monday amid an international push for a deal to halt fighting in Gaza and prevent a slide into a wider regional conflict with Iran and its proxies. Palestinian medics said Israeli military strikes on Khan Younis on Monday killed at least 18 people and wounded several. Meanwhile more families and displaced persons streamed out of areas threatened by new evacuation orders telling people to clear the area. Later an Israeli airstrike killed five people in the Zeitoun suburb of Gaza City, and two others were killed in Rafah, near the border with Egypt, medics said.
As fighting continued, Hamas reacted sceptically to the latest round of Egyptian and Qatari-brokered talks due on Thursday, saying it had seen no sign of movement from the Israeli side. The group said on Sunday that mediators must force Israel to accept a ceasefire proposal based on ideas from U.S. President Joe Biden, which Hamas had accepted, “instead of pursuing further rounds of negotiations or new proposals that would provide cover for the occupation’s aggression”. Two sources close to Hamas told Reuters the group was convinced the new call for talks was coordinated beforehand with Israel to deter responses from Iran and Hezbollah to the assassination of the group’s chief, Ismail Haniyeh, in Tehran and a top Hezbollah leader in Lebanon. “It is a mild rejection you can say. Should Hamas receive a workable plan, an Israeli positive response to the proposal it had accepted, things may change, but so far Hamas believes Netanyahu isn’t serious about reaching a deal,” said one Palestinian official close to the mediation effort. Hamas’ reaction to the talks came as preparations for a larger scale confrontation grew, with Washington ordering a guided missile submarine to the Middle East and the Abraham Lincoln strike group accelerating its deployment to the region.
Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant told U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin that Iran was making preparations for a large-scale military attack on Israel,
wars and the signing of the first historic peace accord between the two sides.
Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant told United States Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin in a phone call on Sunday that Israel detected military preparations in Iran that have not been observed during the last few days, the Israeli media reported. Previously, it was also reported by the Israeli intelligence community that Iran is planning to launch an attack on Israel in the coming days. It is not known, however, whether the assault will be coordinated by both Iran and Hezbollah, or whether the Lebanon-based militant organization will retaliate against Israel separately. Sources in the Israeli intelligence community as cited by Axios, alleged the attacks will be more severe compared to the events in April when Tehran launched drones and missiles against targets in Israel in response to the attack on its consulate in Damascus, Syria. High-ranking Iranian officials repeatedly stated retaliation against Israel was certain to come but did not provide further details.
