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Oil Prices Up On Geopolitical Risk…… US Orders Military Buildup

Crude oil prices started the week up after U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin announced a guided missile submarine would be deployed to the Middle East. The move comes as Israel and its U.S. allies brace up for an attack by Iran and its regional allies in the Middle East in retaliation for the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran and that of a senior Hezbollah figure in Lebanon. “Secretary Austin reiterated the United States’ commitment to take every possible step to defend Israel and noted the strengthening of U.S. military force posture and capabilities throughout the Middle East in light of escalating regional tensions,” a statement by the Pentagon said, as quoted by Reuters.

The prices of oil futures rose on Monday with WTI up over 1% as investors remained laser-focused on tensions in the Middle East. While some reports claimed that a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas might be within reach, others revealed that Iran’s strike on the former could come before negotiators sit down to talk on August 15. It was also mentioned that the Iranian Revolutionary Guard and the new president’s administration remain at odds with regard to the scale of the attack. Many world leaders expressed their worries over the potential move as it could be a prelude to a regional conflict. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for September deliveries gained 1.11% to sell at $77.70 per barrel at 4:06 am ET. At the same time, Brent for October settlements increased 0.83%, going for $80.36 a barrel. “The immediate market concern will be attacks on Iran’s oil supply and infrastructure,” Commonwealth Bank of Australia analyst Vivek Dhar told Bloomberg. Even so, Dhar added

“We see Brent oil futures trading between $75 and $85 a barrel in the short term,” noting that in case of a bigger war in the Middle East prices will jump.

Prices also received some support from statements made by U.S. Fed officials, who suggested last week that inflation may be declining sufficiently to motivate an interest rate cut sooner rather than later. Interest rates in the U.S. have been one of the main bearish factors for oil this year. “All the elements of inflation seem to be settling down (and) I’m relatively hopeful based on the conversations I’m having that that’s going to continue,” Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin said, as quoted by Reuters, on Friday.. NN BlackMask  Pod Cast:

Big Military buildup

 

 

 

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Biden: Trump is a genuine danger to national security

US President Joe Biden warned that a second term for Donald Trump would pose a significant threat to national democracy and security. In an extract of a CBS interview published on Sunday, he emphasized the importance of current global decisions, stating that choices made in the coming years could shape the next six decades. Biden also criticized the Supreme Court, calling it “out of whack,” and proposed an 18-year term limit for justices. He highlighted the danger posed by “mega Republicans” who, in his view, show little regard for political institutions. Biden underscored that safeguarding democracy is essential to the nation’s identity. NN:  This is not helpful. Trump is a known quantity. It’s not his first rodeo. The Democrats are trying to cause panic. I am afraid it’s going to get uglier.

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13 injured in Ukraine’s attack on Kursk

 

At least 13 people were injured in a Ukrainian airstrike on the Russian city of Kursk, in the region of the same name. According to local authorities, a Ukrainian missile hit a residential building, resulting in a fire. Kursk acting Governor Alexey Smirnov said emergency services are working at the site of the attack. “Ukrainian special services are spreading rumors about panic in the city, but this is not true,” he added.

A ministry statement said the Russian military and border guards have blocked Ukrainian forces from pushing deeper into the region in southwestern Russia. It added that the army is attacking Ukrainian fighters trying to advance into the area from Ukraine’s Sumy region.

“Attempts by individual units to break through deep into the territory in the Kursk direction are being suppressed,” the ministry said.

Ukrainian troops had advanced as much as 15 kilometers (9 miles) into Russian territory, according to the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think tank. The data that hasn’t been officially confirmed. Kyiv has not commented on the incursion. In a video address to the nation late Thursday, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy did not mention the fighting in the Kursk region but emphasized that “Russia brought the war to our land, and it should feel what it has done.” “Ukrainians know how to achieve their goals,” Zelenskyy said, adding that he received three “productive reports, exactly the kind our country needs now” on Thursday from the commander of Ukraine’s armed forces, Oleksandr Syrskyi.

 

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Oil Markets Driven by Macro Economy, Not Fundamentals

  • Oil prices rose for the fourth straight session on Friday, boosted by positive U.S. jobs data that eased economic concerns.
  • The U.S. Labor Department reported a significant drop in unemployment claims, suggesting resilience in the job market.
  • Despite positive economic signals, oil markets are cautious due to the potential impact on Federal Reserve interest rate decisions.

Oil prices settled higher on Friday for the fourth consecutive session, after positive U.S. jobs data helped ease growing jitters about the state of the U.S. economy. Brent crude for September delivery was up 62 cents to trade at $79.78 per barrel at 16:45 hrs ET while the corresponding WTI crude contract was changing hands at $77.07/bbl, good for a 62 cents gain. The latest data by the Labor Department revealed that initial claims for state unemployment benefits fell 17,000 to a seasonally adjusted 233,000 for the week ended Aug. 3, the lowest level in 11 months. That figure came in lower than 240,000 jobless claims forecast by economists polled by Reuters. Overall, the U.S. economy grew at a 2.8% clip in the second quarter,  double the growth pace in the first quarter. “The talk of an imminent recession seems wide of the mark,” Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex, told Reuters. His sentiments are echoed by BlackRock saying the U.S. recession fears are overdone. The asset manager has argued that the July U.S. jobs report is more in-line with an economic slowdown than a recession. BlackRock notes that job creation is slowing, but averaged a robust 170,000 over the past three months; consumer spending, while cooling, remains relatively healthy and Q2 corporate earnings have so far topped expectations, with S&P 500 earnings growth projected at about 13%, above the 9% expected at the start of the season. BlackRock is the largest money manager in the world with $9.1 trillion in Assets Under Management (AUM). With oil markets now focusing more on the state of the U.S. economies and largely ignoring supply/demand fundamentals, another presidency by Republican candidate Donald Trump might not be a bad idea, after all.

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F-22 Jets Arrive in the Middle East to Signal US Support for Israel

Stealthy US Air Force F-22 Raptor jets have arrived in the Middle East in a show of force meant to deter Iran and its proxies from attacking Israel following the assassination of a top Hamas leader. US Central Command announced the arrival in a post on X but didn’t disclose how many jets have been deployed or exactly where they landed in the region. The F-22s send a powerful signal to Iran because “they can operate with impunity in Iranian airspace without Iran being aware,” according to retired Lieutenant General David Deptula.“They can perform not just air-to-air operations but can surreptitiously conduct intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance operations and have the capacity to deliver bombs as well.”

This deployment of F-22s marks the first to the Middle East since June 2023, when the planes built by Lockheed Martin Corp. were sent in response to what officials said was more aggressive behavior by Russian aircraft. Earlier last year off the coast of South Carolina, an F-22 shot down a Chinese balloon, which the US said was used for high-altitude surveillance. The US has ordered more forces closer to Israel amid concerns that Iran will attack the country at any time in response to the killing of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. Israel has neither confirmed nor denied it was responsible but its officials haven’t pushed back against the claim.

“This is the biggest crisis deployment of the F-22s” since they went operational in late 2005, according to Rebecca Grant, an airpower analyst with the Lexington Institute in Arlington, Virginia. “Deploying F-22s means this is serious and there’s a chance of big force packages operating in multiple locations and with allies.”

In addition to flying stealthy ground strikes against “Iranian militia or other targets, as needed,” Grant said, the jet’s data links allow it to coordinate with non-stealthy aircraft for attacks or defensive maneuvers. NN: This is the second deployment of F22 to the middle east in the past week. Which means they are preparing for something big

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Israel Strike on Gaza School claims Kills 100 Palestinians (human shields}…….Israeli army says Taba’een school death toll inflated

 

An Israeli strike on a school in Gaza City killed about 100 Palestinians during Saturday morning prayers, Hamas said. The Israel Defense Forces said the airstrike targeted Hamas militants operating from a command center embedded in the Al-Taba’een school, according to a Telegram post. The school was located adjacent to a mosque in Daraj Tuffah, which serves as a shelter for the residents of Gaza, the IDF said.

The center was as a hideout for Hamas commanders, it said. A Hamas command and control center embedded in the Al-Taba’een school” 

Local Gaza authorities said the dead included women and children who were sheltering in the school , (Human Shields for Hamas)  even as the IDF said precise weapons and various steps were taken to mitigate the risk to civilians. The attack is one of the deadliest in the Israel-Hamas war, and the high death toll from the strike is expected to hinder international attempts to resume cease-fire talks between the two sides. The US, Qatar and Egypt are calling for a new round of talks on Aug. 15, the latest attempt by the Biden administration to end the war in Gaza even as the region braces for an expected Iranian attack on Israel. Israel has said it will send a delegation, while Hamas has yet to respond. The three nations have been pressuring the two sides for months, urging both Israel and Hamas militants to halt fighting in the Gaza Strip that has killed roughly 40,000 Palestinians, according to the Hamas-run health ministry in the coastal strip. Hamas, which attacked Israel on Oct. 7, is designated a terrorist group by the US and European Union. NN: Where do you think negotiations, with the cold blood mass murderer SIN WAR, will go from here. This animal needs killing.

Israeli army says Taba’een school death toll inflated

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) reported on Saturday that at least 20 terror operatives and senior commanders of Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad were present at the al-Taba’een school in Gaza City during the deadly school strike, but denied over 100 Palestinian deaths. “According to a preliminary examination, the numbers published by the government media office in Gaza — which acts as a media arm of Hamas — are exaggerated and do not match the information available in the IDF, the precise munitions used, and the accuracy of the strike,” the IDF added. The military added, citing its intelligence, that the command room was based out of a prayer room in the al-Taba’een school, in Gaza City’s Daraj neighborhood.

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Russia Says Reinforcements Arrive to Fight Ukrainian Incursion

Russia dispatched military reinforcements to confront Ukrainian forces in an ongoing battle in its western Kursk region, the first foreign incursion on its territory since World War II. The Defense Ministry in Moscow said in a statement Saturday that tanks had arrived and “taken up firing positions” against the Ukrainian troops, whose surprise cross-border operation is the biggest assault on Russia since President Vladimir Putin ordered the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Earlier, the ministry said it was also deploying additional artillery and multiple-rocket launchers as the fighting entered a fifth day. Russian security services announced a “counter-terrorism” regime in Kursk and the neighboring Belgorod and Bryansk border regions on Saturday, which allows for restrictions on movement. The National Anti-Terrorism Committee said it was a response to Ukraine’s “unprecedented attempt to destabilize the situation” in Russia. Putin looked grim-faced at a regular meeting of his Security Council on Friday, though he offered no comment on the crisis that’s spiraling into the most serious wartime challenge to the Kremlin since last year’s short-lived mutiny by Wagner mercenary leader Yevgeny Prighozin.

Ukraine Continues Incursion Into Russia’s Kursk Region

Source: Institute for the Study of WarNote: Map shows control areas and events as of August 8, 2024

Air defenses downed 26 drones overnight in the Kursk region and another six over the Yaroslavl region northeast of Moscow, the Defense Ministry said on Telegram. Russia said Friday that its forces used air strikes and artillery to stop Ukrainian troops pushing “deep into” its territory in Kursk. Authorities in Moscow declared a federal emergency in the region as thousands of people abandoned their homes to flee the fighting. While much of the situation on the battlefield remained unclear, Russian military bloggers reported Ukrainian advances as deep as 37 kilometers (23 miles) into the Kursk region. Video posted on social media appeared to show a column of at least a dozen Russian troop vehicles that had been destroyed in the Rylsk district. The footage couldn’t be independently verified. The Russian state nuclear corporation Rosatom said Saturday that the Kursk atomic power plant near the city of Kurchatov was operating normally, according to the Tass news service. Fighting around the town of Sudzha, the site of a key transit point for the last remaining pipeline carrying Russian gas to Europe, helped push European natural gas prices to the highest level this year on fears of possible disruptions to supplies. Flows were reported to be continuing within the normal range. While the US doesn’t support “long-range attacks” into Russia, the intervention in Kursk is consistent with Washington’s policy on Ukraine’s use of American-supplied weapons, Deputy Pentagon Press Secretary Sabrina Singh told reporters. “Ukraine is fighting a legitimate defensive war against an illegal aggression,” said Peter Stano, lead spokesperson for the EU’s foreign affairs and security policy. “In the framework of this legitimate right to defend itself Ukraine is entitled to hit the enemy wherever it finds necessary on its territory, but also on the territory of the enemy.” The spectacular operation in Kursk is a boost for Ukrainian army Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi, who’s faced criticism over his leadership, Volodymyr Fesenko, head of the Penta research institute in Kyiv, said in a Facebook post. “We have been waiting for something like this for a long time,” Fesenko said. NN: Little reported….. this may be a game changer, Watch the 10  minute video

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US to reportedly provide Israel $3.5B in arms, military equipment

The United States is set to provide Israel with $3.5 billion to spend on armaments and military equipment, CNN reported Friday, citing people familiar with the topic. The monetary aid comes months after Congress appropriated it to Tel Aviv, and it is part of the $14.1 billion supplemental funding bill for Israel that Congress passed in April, the sources added. The funding is essentially for Israel to buy advanced weapons systems and other equipment from the US through the Foreign Military Financing program, amid escalating tensions with Iran.

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Hamas official allegedly killed in drone strike in Lebanon

A Hamas official was eliminated after Israel reportedly launched a drone attack on Lebanon’s southern city of Sidon on Friday, AFP reported, citing unnamed sources. “An Israeli strike targeted a Hamas movement security official from the Ain al-Helweh [refugee] camp while he was inside his vehicle in the city of Sidon,” the source said. Additionally, an AFP correspondent claimed to have seen emergency personnel removing a carbonized body from the vehicle while soldiers cordoned off the area.

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US to lift ban on offensive weapons sales to Saudi Arabia

WASHINGTON, Aug 9 (Reuters) – The Biden administration has decided to lift a ban on U.S. sales of offensive weapons to Saudi Arabia, three sources familiar with the matter told Reuters on Friday, reversing a three-year-old policy to pressure the kingdom to wind down the Yemen war.
The administration briefed Congress this week on its decision to lift the ban, a congressional aide said. One source said sales could resume as early as next week, while another said deliberations on timing were still under way. “The Saudis have met their end of the deal, and we are prepared to meet ours, returning these cases to regular order through appropriate congressional notification and consultation,” a senior Biden administration official said. Under U.S. law, major international weapons deals must be reviewed by members of Congress before they are made final. Democratic and Republican lawmakers have questioned the provision of offensive weapons to Saudi Arabia in recent years, citing issues including the toll on civilians of its campaign in Yemen and a range of human rights concerns. But that opposition has softened amid turmoil in the Middle East following Hamas’ deadly Oct. 7 attack on Israel and because of changes in the conduct of the campaign in Yemen. The threat level in the region has been heightened since late last month, with Iran and Lebanon’s powerful Iran-backed Hezbollah group vowing to retaliate against Israel after Hamas’ political chief Ismail Haniyeh was killed in Tehran. The Biden administration also has been negotiating a defense pact and an agreement for civil nuclear cooperation with Riyadh as part of a broad deal that envisions Saudi Arabia normalizing ties with Israel, although that remains an elusive goal. Since March 2022 – when the Saudis and Houthis entered into a U.N.-led truce – there have not been any Saudi airstrikes in Yemen and cross-border fire from Yemen into the kingdom has largely stopped, the administration official said. Biden adopted the tougher stance on weapons sales to Saudi Arabia in 2021, citing the kingdom’s campaign against the Iran-aligned Houthis in Yemen, which has inflicted heavy civilian casualties. Yemen’s war is seen as one of several proxy battles between Iran and Saudi Arabia. The Houthis ousted a Saudi-backed government from Sanaa in late 2014 and have been at war against a Saudi-led military alliance since 2015, a conflict that has killed hundreds of thousands of people and left 80% of Yemen’s population dependent on humanitarian aid.