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Ebrahim Raisi, Iranian President Confronting West, Dies at 63

  • He was seen as a favorite to succeed Supreme Leader Khamenei
  • He put all institutions, and power in the hands of hardliners

Ebrahim Raisi, the ultraconservative cleric whose tenure as Iran’s president was marked by a mass uprising and an increasingly hawkish stance toward the West, has died after a helicopter crash. He was 63. The president’s helicopter went down Sunday in the northwest of the country, state media said. His death, along with that of Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian who was traveling with him, was confirmed Monday by the semi-official Mehr news agency. Raisi, who won the election in 2021 to become the country’s eighth president, took office during an economic crisis brought on by the US withdrawal from a landmark nuclear deal and the worst Covid-19 outbreak in the Middle East. Though he had little influence on Iran’s most important institutions, such as the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, he was widely seen in Iran as a favorite to eventually succeed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who is in his mid-80s. His death removes the only serious rival to Khamenei’s son, Mojtaba, to take the top job. Raisi’s death comes at a time of turmoil in the Middle East, centered on Israel’s war against Iran-backed Hamas in Gaza. Triggered by Hamas’s attack on Israel in October, the war has spurred violence across the region. Iranian-supported militias in Iraq and Syria have targeted US bases, the Houthis in Yemen have fired on commercial shipping in the Red Sea and Lebanon’s Hezbollah has launched missiles almost daily into Israel. Iran and Israel attacked each other directly for the first time in April. Raisi won the presidency on a record-low turnout in a poll that mostly excluded reformists and veteran politicians. He entered office pledging to end efforts to build trade ties with the West and instead focus on developing links with China and Russia. His presidency ended a period in which the foreign ministry was led by multilingual diplomats who favored better relations with the US and stronger trade with Europe. He was born in the north-east city of Mashhad, one of the holiest sites in Shia Islam. His father died when he was 5 years old and he attended various Islamic seminaries as a child before becoming a public prosecutor in Karaj, a city in northern Iran, in his early 20s. He was married to Jamileh Alamolhoda, the daughter of an ultraconservative cleric, and together they had two daughters. Raisi first stood for the presidency in 2017, losing to Hassan Rouhani, the relatively moderate incumbent. Rouhani was central to the nuclear accord that former President Donald Trump jettisoned in 2018. In his subsequent rise to the presidency and backed by the highest levels of Iran’s religious and military establishment, Raisi’s election meant all of the country’s state institutions and levers of power were in the hands of hardliners. With Iran’s economy battered by years of sanctions, Raisi promised to improve matters when he finally took office. Instead, Iran’s currency has plummeted to successive lows against the dollar and the country is facing mounting pressure to boost cooperation with UN inspectors of its nuclear program, or face diplomatic censure followed by a potential referral to the UN Security Council. Raisi was sanctioned by the US in 2019, which cited his role in human rights violations over many decades. In 2018, Amnesty International accused him of being a member of a “death commission” that forcibly disappeared and executed thousands of political dissidents in the late 1980s. During his time in office, Iran was gripped by some of the most widespread and violent protests in the Islamic Republic’s history. Triggered by the death of a young woman who had died in police custody shortly after being arrested for allegedly violating Islamic dress codes, the protests were brutally suppressed. Iran resumed diplomatic relations with Saudi Arabia in 2023 after a seven-year rift, in a deal brokered by China. Both countries were invited to join the BRICS group of emerging-market nations that year, although so far only Iran has officially become a member. Raisi also sought to strengthen ties with China, visiting the country in 2023 and meeting Chinese President Xi Jinping. Iran has backed Russia in its war in Ukraine, supplying drones and participating in the creation of new shipping and rail routes, seeking to weaken sanctions.

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Iranian media confirms Raisi’s death…….. Putin: Iran’s Raisi was ‘true reliable friend’ of Russia

Several Iranian media outlets, including the country’s state television, confirmed the death of 63-year-old President Ebrahim Raisi. The semi-official Mehr news agency, IRNA and the IRIB news agency confirmed the reports of his death. “The helicopter’s passengers, including Ebrahim Raisi, Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, Iran’s East Azerbaijan Province Governor Malek Rahmati, and Ayatollah Mohammad Ali Ale-Hashem, the representative of the Leader of the Islamic Revolution to East Azarbaijan Province, along with several other people were martyred in the incident,” Mehr reported. “Upon the martyrdom of the president and the minister of foreign affairs, the government cabinet convened an urgent meeting,” IRNA said. NN: Another mass murderer sent to hell. The author of the atrocities out of Hamas and the coming hell out of Hezbollah.

Putin: Iran’s Raisi was ‘true reliable friend’ of Russia

Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Monday that late Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi was a “true reliable friend” for his country. In an official statement, Putin mourned Raisi’s death stressing that “he made an invaluable personal contribution to the development of good neighborly relations between our countries.” For his part, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov added his condolences to Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian for the one who also expressed respect for the work done in international relations. Russia sent a Russian Il-76 plane with rescuers to assist in rescue operations when crews reported difficulties in reaching the crash site.

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Oil Tanker Hit by Houthi Missile in Red Sea…… Continues voyage under its own power

A China-bound oil tanker in the Red Sea was struck and temporarily disabled by a ballistic anti-ship missile fired by Houthi militants, the US Central Command said. The strike Saturday on the Greek-owned M/T Wind caused flooding that knocked out its propulsion and steering, which the crew restored without help from a coalition vessel that responded to a distress call. The Wind, which most recently docked in Russia, resumed its course under its power, Centcom said in a statement. No casualties were reported. While Centcom didn’t provide a location, Agence-France Presse reported earlier Saturday that an oil tanker was hit near the Bab el-Mandeb strait, about 10 nautical miles (19 kilometers) southwest of the Yemeni port of Mokha. AFP cited maritime security firm Ambrey. Iran-backed Houthis have been attacking warships and merchant vessels passing through the Red Sea since mid-November, especially those linked to Israel, the US and the UK, in response to Israel’s war against Hamas in Gaza. They’ve effectively closed a key global shipping route, forcing ships traveling between Asia and Europe to avoid the Suez Canal and go around southern Africa. Separately, UK Maritime Trade Operations earlier reported a vessel with some damage, 98 nautical miles south of Al Hudaydah, Yemen. The ship known as the Master sustained slight damage after being struck by an unknown object on the port quarter. The ship and its crew were safe and continued to their next port of call. Shipping and freight executives believe the Red Sea will remain too dangerous for many more months, if not the rest of the year putting some upwards pressure on energy market.

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Israel-Hama 700 terror tunnel shafts in Rafah, 50 to Egypt

Israel went public on May 17 with the discovery of 50 smuggling tunnels leading from the southern Gazan city of Rafah to Egypt. Defending Israel against South African-filed genocide allegations at the International Court of Justice, attorney Gilad Noam devoted part of his remarks to the ongoing military operation in Rafah, a focus of international pro-Palestinian advocacy. In addition to hosting four Hamas battalions and their reinforcements from elsewhere in the Gaza Strip, Rafah is the site of “an intricate underground tunnel infrastructure that runs underneath the city and provides ample space for operatives, command and control rooms, and military equipment,” Noam said. “Nearly 700 tunnel shafts have been identified in Rafah, from which approximately 50 tunnels cross into Egypt. These tunnels are used by Hamas to supply itself with weapons and ammunition, and could potentially be used to smuggle out of Gaza hostages or Hamas senior operatives.” In an overnight phone call with U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant briefed his counterpart on the Rafah operation, which, Gallant’s office said, has so far entailed “the destruction of several terror tunnels, as well as efforts to locate hostages.” The statement did not mention neighboring Egypt.

Expert Analysis

“Israel has finally lifted the veil on one of the region’s open secrets: that the Egyptians, while cracking down on the Muslim Brotherhood in their midst, have been turning a blind eye and likely making a handsome profit off gun-running to Hamas, the Brotherhood’s Palestinian affiliate. This disclosure comes not a moment too soon. There are potentially dozens of hostages in Rafah — Americans among them, perhaps — who now face the prospect of being transported into the Egyptian Sinai, never to be seen again. The United States must use its diplomatic and military aid to Cairo to stop Cairo’s double game.” — 

“Israel has been nothing but patient with Egypt playing spoiler during this crisis. After Cairo refused to let in Palestinian refugees — a temporary measure that would have shortened the Gaza war — Jerusalem assented to the positioning of heavy Egyptian reinforcements in the supposedly demilitarized Sinai to seal off the Rafah border. And all the Israelis have got in return has been vitriol and, most recently, Egyptian support for the foul allegations being leveled against them at The Hague. President Sisi is supposed to be a pragmatist rather than a populist. This cannot continue.” — Joe Truzman, Senior Research Analyst at FDD’s Long War Journal

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WTI Challenges $80 Again on Strong Economic Data

U.S. crude oil prices pushed past $80 on Friday, with the global benchmark Brent crude also enjoying its first weekly gain since mid-April on Chinese industrial output data and U.S. consumer prices, both of which came in more favorably than anticipated for April.  On Friday at 4:20 p.m. ET, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was trading a penny shy of $80, and had surpassed $80 earlier in the afternoon. Brent crude was trading at $83.91, up 0.77% on the day.  The April U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) released on Wednesday showed a 0.3% increase from March, lower than the Dow Jones estimate of 0.4%. This data lent more optimism to the potential for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, with some speculating that rate cuts could start as early as September, according to CNBC.  Also boosting oil prices was Chinese economic data released earlier on Friday. Official data cited by Reuters showed China’s industrial output growing 6.7% year-on-year in April, up from 4.5% in March and beating expectations of a Reuters poll of analysts of 5.5%. Both sets of economic data provide strong tailwinds for oil demand.  This week, gasoline prices in the U.S. continued to fall as oil prices remained low, with the national average price per gallon at $3.597 on Friday, down over four cents on the week. according to AAA, but still about 7 cents higher than this same time last year.  Last week, gas demand rose mildly from 8.79 million barrels per day to 8.87 bpd, with U.S. stockpiles reporting a small draw against the backdrop of what AAA calls “lackluster pre-Memorial Day demand”.   “Barring some unforeseen event, this pokey drop in pump prices is not likely to change anytime soon,” said Andrew Gross, AAA spokesperson. “There are seven states with county gas averages at less than $3 a gallon. This trend will likely accelerate as more gas outlets east of the Rockies drop their prices.”

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Israel’s Gantz threatens cabinet exit…… Lapid urges Gantz to resign

Israeli Minister without Portfolio Benny Gantz set a June 8 deadline for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to present a comprehensive Gaza strategy. In a news conference, Gantz urged for a clear plan to resolve the conflict with Hamas, including future governance of Gaza. Gantz proposed a six-point strategy and warned that if it is not adopted, he will withdraw his party from Netanyahu’s government, stressing the need for a “clear and realistic strategic compass.” It came after Israeli opposition leader Yair Lapid called on him to resign.

Lapid urges Gantz to resign

Israeli opposition leader Yair Lapid (pictured) called on Israeli Minister without Portfolio Benny Gantz to resign from the government. Lapid called the current administration “the worst government in the country’s history,” stressing that Gantz should step down to protest the government’s handling of various issues. He said he believes Gantz’s resignation would ultimately aim to end Prime Minister Netanyahu’s hold on power. “He should say that he will no longer help Netanyahu stay in power and he is leaving the government immediately and calling for elections now,” he said.

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Oil Posts Weekly Gain Settling Above $80

Oil notched a weekly gain while futures stayed in a narrow range, with the outlook for supply and inflation in focus. West Texas Intermediate settled above $80 a barrel, posting a 2.3% weekly gain and the third advance in four weeks. Lower US crude stockpiles and a sign that inflation could be ebbing have provided a lift to prices this week. However, they’ve had to vie in recent sessions with bearish forces such as an International Energy Agency outlook for weaker demand growth. Although the market has shed much of its geopolitical risk premium over the past few weeks, traders got a strong reminder that threats remain after Ukrainian drones set Russia’s Tuapse refinery on fire. The facility has already been offline for three months this year following a previous strike. Price action this week has been muted as the competing drivers largely offset each other. The conflicting factors resulted in a tight weekly range, with Brent volatility falling to the lowest since March. Traders are awaiting the next big catalyst in the oil market, and many expect to find it in the net OPEC+ meeting on June 1. The group is widely expected to continue with existing production cuts, with some members seeking to have their capacity levels upgraded.

Prices:

  • WTI for June delivery rose 83 cents to settle at $80.06 a barrel in New York.
  • Brent for July settlement advanced 71 cents to settle at $83.98 a barrel.
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Missile strikes oil tanker near Yemen’s Mocha port…………….UK says ship damaged in strike in Red Sea

PROPAGANDA VIDEO

  A Panama-flagged oil tanker was hit by a missile in the Red Sea, around 10 nautical miles southwest of Yemen’s Mocha port, as reported by a British security firm, Ambrey. The attack occurred recently, although the exact date was not specified. While no group has claimed responsibility yet, the Yemen-based Houthis have been targeting vessels in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden since late last year. Yemen-based Houthis have been implicated in similar attacks since late last year.

UK says ship damaged in strike in Red Sea

The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) said on Saturday that a ship suffered slight damage after it was struck by an unknown object while sailing the Red Sea. It is currently unclear who launched the object at the vessel. The UKMTO said the incident happened 76 nautical miles northwest of Al Hudaydah, Yemen. There were no casualties and the ship continued toward its next port of call.

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China Attempts to End Property Crisis With Broad Rescue Package

  • Beijing removes floor on mortgage rates, lowers downpayment
  • PBOC readies $42 billion of funding to buy unsold homes

Xi Jinping’s government announced its most forceful attempt yet to rescue the beleaguered Chinese property market, relaxing mortgage rules and urging local governments to buy unsold homes as authorities become increasingly concerned about the sector’s drag on economic growth. The support package also includes lower down-payment requirements for homebuyers and 300 billion ($42 billion) of central bank funding to help government-backed firms buy excess inventory from developers. Those properties would then be converted into affordable housing.While equity investors cheered the news — sending an index of developer shares up nearly 10% on Friday — it’s far from clear whether the plan will draw a line under the property crisis. The funding announced by China’s central bank is just a fraction of what some analysts say is needed to address the supply-demand mismatch in housing, and many potential buyers are waiting for prices to fall further before stepping in. Friday’s announcement nevertheless underscored Xi’s renewed focus on propping up the world’s second-largest economy, which faces a slew of challenges from rising US tariffs to historically high youth unemployment. The question now is whether authorities can muster the right mix of financial firepower and policy adjustments to shore up confidence without returning to the speculative excesses of previous decades. The relending program is estimated to translate into 500 billion yuan of credit overall for housing buyups, the central bank said. That’s short of analysts estimates, which place required funding at 1 trillion to 5 trillion yuan — depending on the scale and speed at which the government digests housing inventory. It marks a new phase for Beijing’s stance on property, seven years after Xi dictated that “houses are for living in, not for speculating.” The latest measures, while potentially easing the pressure on developers, will accelerate Xi’s plans of increasing public housing. The central bank on Friday cut the minimum down-payment ratio for first-time buyers to 15%, a record low according to Yan Yuejin, research director at E-house China Research and Development Institute. Second-home buyers now need to put forward 25%, with both moves representing a 5 percentage-point. China’s property market is in crisis. Home prices are falling, developers are defaulting and people are angry. The worry is that a total collapse will bring down an already faltering economy. Bloomberg Originals explores how the real estate sector became such a mess and what the implications could be for the global economy.

Source: National Bureau of Statistics

China began lowering the nationwide floor of mortgage rates in 2022

“The effects will depend on whether consumers will take heart,” said Shen Meng, a director at Beijing-based investment bank Chanson & Co. If not executed well “it’s unlikely to stimulate demand and induce a structural turnaround.”

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Biden administration wants to ‘shut down’ Israel-Hamas war

 

The Biden administration wants to “shut down” the war in Gaza as it fears what might happen after Israel defeats Hamas, Hudson Institute Senior Fellow Michael Doran says. Mr Doran said the United States government is afraid Israel will “turn its guns” against Hezbollah. “That will be a disaster from the Biden administration’s point of view because it will destroy their Iran policy, Hezbollah being the favorite proxy of Iran,” he told Sky News host James Morrow.. NN: America is selling out Israel to appease Iran. How do think that will end up?