White House ‘Actively Promoting’ Iran’s Noose around Israel

JERUSALEM, Israel – During the seven months since the October 7th Hamas massacre and kidnappings, the Israeli perception of the Biden administration’s relationship with their nation and especially with their prime minister has, for many, been transformed from warm and welcoming to bewildering and hostile. That has been more evident since the early weeks of 2024 when the White House made it clear they would prefer to see Benjamin Netanyahu replaced as prime minister. Later they would even summon coalition member and National Unity Party leader Benny Gantz to Washington to conduct business with Israel without consultation from either party with Netanyahu.

Israel’s Slow-Walk In Rafah Opens Door to Full-On Offensive….. Houthis claim downing of US MQ-9 aircraft…. US destroys 4 Houthi drones in Red Sea

On Thursday, Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich  said that Israel will pull out of its free trade agreement with Turkey. Earlier this month, Turkey decided to halt all trade with Israel over its conflict with Hamas in the Gaza Strip. Smotrich said Turkey’s move represents a “declaration of an economic boycott and a serious violation of international trade agreements.” Smotrich said Israel will also impose a 100% tariff on imports from Turkey while President  Erdogan is in power. He added that Israel will have to diversify its imports to reduce its dependence on Turkish products but that it could restore trade relations with Ankara if Turkish citizens elect a leader who is “sane and not a hater of Israel.” NN: War is coming. The question is what players will get suckered into the fray. And when they will get around to attacking oil transport systems.

Houthis claim downing of US MQ-9 aircraft

Yemen’s Houthi rebel group said on Friday that its forces shot down an American MQ-9 aircraft last night, the group’s spokesperson Ameen Hayyan said in the statement. The unmanned aerial vehicle was downed “while it was carrying out hostile actions in the airspace of Ma’rib Governorate,” the spokesperson said. “It is the fourth aircraft that was shot down during the Battle of the Promised Conquest and the Holy Jihad in support of Gaza,” he added. Earlier this week, the US Central Command (CENTCOM) destroyed four drones that are believed to belong to the rebel group.

US destroys 4 Houthi drones in Red Sea

The United States Central Command (CENTCOM) said the US forces in the Red Sea destroyed four drones on the territory of Yemen. They said the drones were located in an area controlled by the Houthis.

CENTCOM added it decided to act after it determined the drones represented a threat. “These actions are taken to protect freedom of navigation and make international waters safer and more secure for US, coalition, and merchant vessels,” it said in a statement.

 

 

Dow crosses 40,000 milestone for first time, trades at all-time high

Major US stock markets traded higher on Thursday, with the Dow Jones crossing the 40,000-point milestone for the first time. Markets have been buoyed by optimism following the latest April CPI report, which showed that the figure fell from 3.5% to 3.4%. At 10:50 am ET, the Dow Jones gained 0.28% or 111 points to reach 40,019, the Nasdaq 100 added 0.23%, and the S&P 500 rose 0.22%. On the currency front, the euro was down by 0.15% against the dollar, selling for $1.08679. NN: Now you know why as of yet i am not shoring this insanity.

Hezbollah, Hamas reportedly hold meeting in Beirut……… Israel allegedly strikes northeastern Lebanon

propaganda video

Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah (pictured) welcomed a Hamas delegation in Beirut, Lebanon, the Al Mayadeen channel reported on Wednesday. According to the media outlet, at the front of the Hamas delegation was Khalil al-Hayya, the militant group’s deputy head in Gaza. He was accompanied by Mohammed Nasr, a member of the group’s political bureau, and Osama Hamdan, a senior Lebanon-based spokesperson for Hamas. It was stated that the two sides discussed the latest developments in the Gaza Strip, while also touching on the subject of ceasefire negotiations. Both reiterated their commitment to achieving “victory, regardless of the sacrifices.”

Israel allegedly strikes northeastern Lebanon

The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) reportedly conducted air strikes on the city of Baalbek, located in northeastern Lebanon on Wednesday, The Times of Israel reported, citing Lebanese media. Video footage posted on X by Ahmed Yassine, a Lebanese journalist, shows explosions going off on the city’s outskirts. A Lebanese news outlet, Nabatieh News, also reported air strikes conducted by Israeli jets around Baalbek.

IEA Says Global Oil Demand Growth Outlook Has Softened

  • Agency trims 2024 growth forecast by 140,000 barrels a day
  • Market still set for deficit if OPEC+ extends production cuts

The outlook for global oil demand growth this year continues to soften amid an economic slowdown and mild weather in Europe, the International Energy Agency said.

World fuel consumption will increase by 1.1 million barrels a day this year, about 140,000 barrels less than expected a month ago, the Paris-based adviser said, trimming its projections for the second month in a row. The forecast change reflects a first-quarter demand contraction in rich countries combined with an upward revision to estimates for 2023. “Poor industrial activity and another mild winter have sapped gasoil consumption this year, particularly in Europe, where a declining share of diesel cars in the fleet were already undercutting consumption,” said the IEA, which advises most major economies. Oil prices are trading near $83 a barrel in London, having retreated 10% from this year’s peak as the fragile economic outlook coupled with abundant US oil supplies offset fears over Middle East conflict and production curbs by OPEC+.

Still, the picture may not be as bearish as the report initially suggests. Consumption remains on track to reach an annual record of 103.2 million barrels a day this year even with the lower growth forecast, according to the agency. That’s because it’s demand estimate for 2023 was revised higher.

The IEA’s oil-consumption estimates are lower than much of the industry, from trading houses to Wall Street banks. Commodities giants like Gunvor Group and Trafigura Group project growth closer to 1.4 million or 1.5 million barrels a day of demand growth this year.

Global oil markets face a supply deficit this quarter, in part due to output cutbacks by the OPEC+ coalition, led by Saudi Arabia, according to the IEA. The shortfall will deepen in the third quarter if the group chooses to support the curbs when it meets on June 1, as is widely expected.

The agency made no changes to estimates for 2025, when it expects that world oil demand will increase by 1.2 million barrels a day.

U.S. Crude Oil Inventories See Surprise Draw

Crude oil inventories in the United States fell this week by 3.104 million barrels for the week ending May 3, according to The American Petroleum Institute (API). Analysts had expected a 1 million barrel build. For the week prior, the API reported a 509,000 barrel build in crude inventories. On Tuesday, the Department of Energy (DoE) reported that crude oil inventories in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) rose by 0.6 million barrels as of May 10. Inventories are now at 367.8 million barrels—the highest point since last April, but well below the 656 million barrels in inventory in June 2020. Oil prices were trading down ahead of the API data release on Tuesday, pushed down by a market that is nervous about the possibility of interest rates staying high.     Gasoline inventories fell this week by 1.269 million barrels, countering last week’s 1.46 million barrel build. As of last week, gasoline inventories were about 2% below the five-year average for this time of year, according to the latest EIA data. Distillate inventories rose this week by 349,000 barrels, compared to last week’s 1.713-million-barrel build. Distillates were 7% below the five-year average for the week ending May 3, the latest EIA data shows. Cushing inventories saw a draw this week, according to API data, falling 601,000 barrels after increasing by 1.339 million barrels in the previous week.

New Bloomberg Study Warns of $150 Oil

A recent release  by Bloomberg Intelligence (BI) warned that, according to a new analysis by BI and Bloomberg Economics (BE),

“an escalation to a direct war between Israel and Iran could result in oil prices rising to $150 a barrel and global output cut by $1 trillion”.

Ziad Daoud, Chief Emerging Markets Economist at BE and co-author of the report, said in the release that the organization’s base case is that the war will remain largely confined, with limited impact on the global economy, but pointed out that this could change.“A risk scenario involving a prolonged conflict could result in a global recession that takes about $1 trillion off global GDP, with surging oil prices, and plummeting sentiment dropping growth to 1.7 percent,” Daoud added.“Outside of the financial crisis and pandemic, that would be the worst growth for world economy since 1982, when the Federal Reserve hiked interest rates to contain inflation from the 1970s oil shock,” Daoud continued. The BE representative noted in the release that the world economy is still recovering from an inflationary cycle exacerbated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and said “another conflict in a critical energy-producing region could significantly recharge inflation to nearly seven percent this year”. Significant disruption of production in the Persian Gulf region, or to transport of oil in the extreme case of a potential blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, could shift OPEC+ policy to maximum output, according to BI and BE, the release stated.In this case the spare production capacity in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Kuwait would become irrelevant if the strait is shuttered, the release warned. BI’s release pointed out that the new BI and BE study examined the impact of four scenarios “in the context of the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict”. In addition to a direct war, the study looked at a proxy war, a “confined war”, and a ceasefire, the release outlined.

“A proxy war, where Iran and Israel clash through proxies such as Lebanon and Syria, while less destructive than a direct war, may cost the global economy up to $300 billion, as prices jump up around $10 a barrel and investor confidence subsides. “Oil prices shrugged off Iran’s April 13 strikes on Israel, suggesting that markets see the extension … of a confined war as the most likely scenario. BI and BE see risks for oil skewed to the upside as healthy demand and OPEC+’s tight grip on supply form a solid fundamental backdrop,” it continued.

BI stated in the release that the impact of a potential cease-fire on oil prices would likely remain limited as the current geopolitical risk premium appears negligible.

“In a recent BI survey, 92 percent of 143 respondents said that there’s a less than $5 a barrel geopolitical risk premium attached to prices by the market,” BI added. “Red Sea attacks have had a limited effect on prices so far and OPEC has a meaningful amount of spare capacity (c. 6.8 million barrels a day), notes BI. Moreover, OPEC+ output policy likely won’t change in a ceasefire scenario if the impact on prices remains constrained,” it went on to state.  Analysts at Morningstar DBRS said the ongoing Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Hamas wars “could lead to a meaningful disruption of oil supply, potentially causing oil prices to surge”. In its latest short term energy outlook, which was released earlier this month, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) warned that “there remains significant uncertainty centered around ongoing developments in the Middle East, which have the potential to increase oil price volatility and lead to sharp increases in oil prices”.

“Prices increased in April due to falling global oil inventories. Geopolitical tensions also supported crude oil prices amid conflict between Iran and Israel, which added uncertainty to already heightened tensions in the Middle East,” the EIA said in its latest STEO.

“Despite these tensions, crude oil price volatility has been subdued for much of this year by significant spare crude oil production capacity. If holders of spare production capacity choose to deploy it, supply can be available to the oil market in the event of any short-term supply disruption,” it added.

OPEC still sees 2024 world oil demand growth at 2.2 mb/d

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said on Tuesday in its latest version of its Monthly Oil Market report that the global oil demand growth estimates for 2024 remained “broadly” the same compared to the last month’s assessment, standing at 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd). While there were “minor upward adjustments to 1Q24 data, including a slight upward adjustment in OECD Americas and Chinese data,” over better-than-anticipated oil demand performance in the reported quarter, this was offset by “a downward revision to the Middle East in 2Q24 and 3Q24,” as a slight decrease is expected in these two trimesters. For 2025, global oil demand growth is estimated to stand at 1.8 mb/d, also unchanged from the last assessment.

Israelis said to storm Jerusalem’s Al-Aqsa Mosque

Hundreds of Israelis stormed the courtyards of the Al-Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem on Tuesday, Al-Jazeer and Palestinian news agency WAFA reported. According to the reports, the Israelis raised the Israeli flag at the site. The incident took place on Israel’s Independence Day amid calls from Jewish groups to take control of the mosque. Meanwhile, Israeli police reportedly tightened measures around the mosque and conducted ID checks of Palestinians trying to enter it.

UNRWA: Nearly half a million forcibly displaced from Rafah

Nearly half a million Palestinians have been “forcibly displaced” from Gaza’s southernmost city of Rafah since May 6, the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees (UNRWA) said on Tuesday.

“People face constant exhaustion, hunger, and fear. Nowhere is safe. An immediate ceasefire is the only hope,” the agency said in its statement. According to the UNRWA’s latest estimate, 450,000 people have fled Rafah as fears continue to grow over Israel’s possible ground operation in the city. Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani previously underlined that Israeli’s planned offensive in Rafah set the negotiations with Hamas “backward.”

Houses in Jabalia reportedly bombed by Israel