Netanyahu Is Caught Between Hitting Iran and Heeding Allies……….Iran says it could destroy Israel’s nuclear facilities

When Iraq fired dozens of Scud missiles on Israel in early 1991, the US implored then Prime Minister Yitzhak Shamir not to respond. Shamir said he had to act. After days of late-night calls, high-level visits and long cabinet meetings, Israel stood down and the US led a 42-nation alliance that defeated Iraq in what became the Gulf War. Iran’s decision to launch 350 missiles and drones at Israel last weekend was the first time since then that a sovereign nation carried out such an assault on the Jewish state. Another hardline Likud party leader, Benjamin Netanyahu, is prime minister and an equally frantic set of calls and visitors is urging him not to react while cabinet meetings focus on the need to do something. But while offering many parallels, the latest events are different from 1991 in at least one significant way: Israel’s powerful Western allies aren’t offering to do the fighting for it. Rather, they’re suggesting that no one challenge Iran militarily just now. And many in Israel, including in Netanyahu’s hard-right coalition, say that will not fly. Iran has said its mission is over after seeking to avenge an attack on its diplomatic compound in Syria. Israel claimed success after repelling the barrage with virtually no damage or deaths. Yet the urgent question remains whether the two plunge into a deeper direct conflict with repercussions beyond the Middle East, and how much of the answer comes down to Israeli politics — and Netanyahu’s survival instincts. “We can’t absorb this quietly,” Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich said on Israel’s Army Radio on Wednesday. “We are at a crossroads regarding our place in the Middle East, as well as that of our children. Our deterrence is in a problematic spot, and a weak response is dangerous.” US President Joe Biden and UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak have told Netanyahu all week to “take the win,” referring to the fact that — with their help and that of neighboring Arab states — Israel stopped 99% of the projectiles aimed at it. “One thing Israel realized on October 7 is that what we think of as ‘deterred’ is not necessarily so,” said Menahem Merhavy, a researcher on Iran at Hebrew University’s Truman Institute. “Hamas was not deterred; Hezbollah is not deterred. We still have Gaza on our plate and the hostages and the north. That’s where we need to put our focus now.” Jonathan Conricus, a former military spokesman for Israel, now a senior fellow at the Washington-based Foundation for Defense of Democracies, says that no matter what Israel will directly hit Iranian soil. “The minimum would be to strike Iran hard enough to cause them to pause and think many times again before doing this again,” he said.

Iran says it could destroy Israel’s nuclear facilities

UK reportedly expects Israel, Iran ‘back and forth’ attacks………Israel allegedly won’t strike Iran until after Passover

The United Kingdom government expects Israel and Iran to constantly engage in “back and forth” attacks, according to an anonymous source from the Defense Ministry cited by Politico on Thursday. According to the media, the UK is deeply concerned about how the two nations seem to be entering into a possible long-lasting and more frequent confrontation, leaving behind previous proxy clashes and passing into a situation never seen before. The report comes a day after British Foreign Secretary David Cameron and other EU leaders met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu who stated his government will make its “own decisions and will do everything necessary to defend itself,” from Iran.

Israel allegedly won’t strike Iran until after Passover

Israel is supposedly not likely to retaliate against Iran until after the Jewish holiday of Passover, ABC News reported, citing a United States official. The holiday begins on April 22 and ends after nightfall on April 30. The source cited by the news agency added that Iran is on high alert, with some members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and other leadership sheltering in safe houses and underground facilities.

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Israel reportedly mulls hitting Iran’s nuclear facilities

Israel is considering targeting Iran’s nuclear facilities as a retaliatory measure to Saturday’s missile and drone attacks, Sky News reported on Wednesday, citing the former director of intelligence at the Israeli spy agency, Mossad, Zohar Palti. “No doubt. Everything is on the table right now,” Palti pointed out. In response to security concerns, Iran temporarily shut down its nuclear facilities on Sunday. Before the attack carried out by Iran, the London-based Elaph News reported that Israel had been conducting air force drills specifically aimed at preparing for potential strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities and other vital infrastructure in the event of an attack.NN;

Can Netanyahu avoid triggering a regional war?

CNN — 

Israel, aided by its allies, dodged a bullet Sunday. To be more precise, 60 tons of explosives aboard more than 350 Iranian projectiles, some bigger than a family car, failed to dodge Israel’s defenses. Yet Israel, in defiance of US President Joe Biden’s warnings to “take the win” and Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi’s threat of a “severe, extensive and painful” response to any retaliation, is contemplating just that. Deterrence, shorthand for “meanest S.O.B. in the room,” Israel believes, is the cornerstone of its survival. Iran is stealing that brick. In a paradigm shift after decades of shadow proxy war, Tehran is usurping Israel’s strategy. “We have decided to create a new equation,” Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Commander Hossein Salami said. “We will retaliate against them [Israel].” When faced with existential threats in the past, Israel has executed the most audacious raids the region has ever witnessed. Cloaked in extreme secrecy in 1981, they bombed Iraq’s nuclear reactor at Osirak before it went on line. Similarly, in 2007, they bombed Syrian dictator Bashar al Assad’s nuclear reactor before it could be built. Both attacks partnered intelligence with conventional military assets. It was 11 years before Israel admitted to the Syria strike. The point being, Israel won’t telegraph its plans as Iran did at the weekend, in carrying out an unprecedented attack in response to a suspected Israeli strike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus, Syria, earlier this month. Aside from the core members of Israel’s war cabinet – Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and Netanyahu’s former biggest political rival Benny Gantz – more than a dozen other people have sat at the table deep inside the Kirya, Israel’s maximum security defense headquarters in Tel Aviv, thrashing out their next move. Notably, Mossad Chief David Barnea and Army Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi are among several security and intelligence officials who have been brought in. Outside the room, Netanyahu faces huge pressure from his hard right governing coalition. Bezalel Smotrich is demanding he “restore deterrence,” and popular Minister of National Security Itamar Ben-Gvir is calling on the prime minister to “go crazy.” Outside Israel, where allies are condemning Iran’s attack but urging restraint and some are also bitter about Netanyahu’s deadly treatment of Gaza’s Palestinians since Hamas’s brutal October 7 attack, calls for fresh sanctions on Tehran are growing. War cabinet members Gantz and Gallant are both seized of the diplomatic opportunity – Gantz saying, “we will build a regional coalition to exact a price from Iran”, while Gallant, according to a government press release, “highlighted the opportunity to establish an international coalition and strategic alliance to counter the threat posed by Iran.” The defense minister has hinted heavily that Iran’s nuclear facilities are in his sights, saying it is “a state that threatens to place nuclear warheads on its missiles.” Netanyahu, meanwhile, said in a statement on the X account of his office, “The international community must continue to stand united in resisting this Iranian aggression, which threatens world peace.” Netanyahu’s next move will likely try to lock in sanctions, and strike before negative Gaza headlines dump the international good will filling his sails. The clock is ticking. He needs two things, time to prepare a significant surprise strike, and time to coalesce international diplomacy. As both march to different beats, his legendary political acumen faces one of its stiffest tests yet. Recent evidence suggests his finger no longer feels the regional pulse as it once did. Earlier this year, following Israel’s precise, targeted assassination of Saleh Al-Arouri, Hamas’s Lebanese chief, in a second-floor Beirut apartment, the former fighter pilot and former head of the IDF’s Military Intelligence Directorate Amos Yadlin told me Israel was acting inside “red lines” to avoid escalation. “The threshold is quite flexible,” Yadlin explained. “Deterrence is a decision at the head of a leader that can give a command to pull the trigger to launch a missile to start a war.” Yadlin knows a thing or two about deterrence and Israel’s past strikes against the nation’s existential threats. He was the fighter pilot who dropped the bomb that destroyed Iraq’s Osirak reactor in 1981, and in 2007 was the intelligence chief who planned the sophisticated audacious strike destroying Bashar al-Assad’s nuclear plant. Last weekend, Iran’s leaders decided Netanyahu’s calculation to kill Mohammad Reza Zahedi, the IRGC’s commander running their proxies threatening Israel from Syria and Lebanon, in their Damascus consulate on April 1 had crossed a red line. Netanyahu’s calculation was wrong. “I think the Iranians will be very, very careful, even if after a provocation is they will suffer a loss, but starting a war with the US or even with Israel. They are not there yet. The damage that can be inflicted on Iran is huge, is huge.” So the most important question right now must be, can Netanyahu read the room right – with Iran threatening to attack, allies warning him not to – and avoid triggering a regional war. And the answer to that is buried in Yadlin’s remarkable insights. Iran, he implied, won’t attack Israel as long as it fears America’s reaction. Netanyahu has so strained relations with the Biden administration over Gaza, Israel’s enemies smell blood. Since the US abstained at a UN Security Council vote last month to call for ceasefire in Gaza,  Hamas has taken an intransigent turn to hostage negotiations.Netanyahu is famed as a political survivor. But now he faces the biggest gamble of his career. He is betting the blood of his nation over Iran’s read of his rift with America.

Rising Middle East Risk Sparks Fear of $100 Oil

  • Uncertainty over a potential Israeli retaliation keeps oil markets on edge.
  • In case of further escalation, $100 oil is possible, analysts say, especially if this involves direct threats to oil supply.
  • Lipow Oil Associates: The worst-case scenario for oil supply is Iran attempting to disrupt tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz.

Despite Iran’s attack on Israel over the weekend, oil prices dropped on Monday as an Iranian response to the Israeli hit on the Iranian diplomatic mission in Syria was largely expected and priced in.   The well-telegraphed-in-advance Iranian drone attack against Israel may have been peak escalation, for now, analysts and investment banks say. However, uncertainty over a potential Israeli retaliation and whether restraint will prevail continue to keep the oil market on edge. Risk premiums and fear will continue to be priced in Brent Crude for the foreseeable future. Uncertainty and risks have grown in the Middle East – a key oil-producing region, which is also home to the world’s most crucial oil chokepoint, the Strait of Hormuz. About 21 million barrels per day (bpd), or a fifth of the world’s daily consumption, is being transported out of the top Middle Eastern exporters via the Strait of Hormuz.  In case of further escalation, $100 oil is possible, analysts say, especially if this involves direct threats to oil supply. “What is not priced into the current market, in our view, is a potential continuation of a direct conflict between Iran and Israel, which we estimate could see oil prices trade up to +$100/bbl, depending on the nature of the events,” Citigroup in a note, as carried by Bloomberg. The worst-case scenario for oil supply is Iran attempting to disrupt tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, which could send oil prices spiking to $130 per barrel, according to Lipow Oil Associates. “Any attack on oil production or export facilities in Iran would drive the price of Brent crude oil to $100, and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz would lead to prices in the $120 to $130 range,” Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates, told CNBC. An escalation involving the U.S. could send oil surging to $140 per barrel, according to Societe Generale, which has raised its Brent price forecast by $10 a barrel to reflect continued geopolitical risk premium. While warning that oil prices could spike well above $100 per barrel in case of a major escalation, investment banks do not consider such escalation the base-case scenario. While Israel is weighing its response to the Iranian attack, the G7 has called for restraint and the U.S. has signaled it wouldn’t be part of any Israel offensive against Iran. U.S. President Joe Biden has assured Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that the U.S. commitment to defend Israel is “ironclad,” but the U.S. would not participate in an offensive against Iran, a senior administration official has told NBC News.   As of early Tuesday, Israel was still weighing its options. Iran has signaled that with the drone barrage against Israel it considers the matter closed, the permanent mission of Iran to the United Nations said on Sunday, but added that “should the Israeli regime make another mistake, Iran’s response will be considerably more severe. It is a conflict between Iran and the rogue Israeli regime, from which the U.S. MUST STAY AWAY!” In view of calls on Israel for restraint, the “most likely path from here (to be) de-escalation rather than further escalation,” Richard Bronze, co-founder and analyst at Energy Aspects, told CNN. “While Israel’s allies are pushing for a diplomatic response, it appears for now that Israel is considering a more direct response. If this is the case, it unfortunately means that this uncertainty and tension will linger for quite some time, as markets will then focus on how Iran further retaliates,” ING strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey wrote in a Tuesday note. “Iranian oil output is most at risk and even a strong diplomatic response from Israel’s allies could hit Iranian oil exports significantly with stricter enforcement of oil sanctions,” say the strategists, who see up to 1 million barrels per day (bpd) of Iranian oil off the market in such case. Morningstar sees “more downside risks than upside at the moment,” Stephen Ellis, an energy and utilities strategist for Morningstar, wrote on Monday. “[T]he ample public and private forewarning from Iran amid rising regional tensions means the attack was already reflected in oil prices via a higher geopolitical risk premium.” Most of the recent rise to $91 oil before the Iranian attack has been the result of geopolitical risks rather than supply risks, according to Morningstar, which notes that the OPEC+ group has ample spare capacity of about 5 million bpd – and probably more – part of which it can return to the market if oil prices surge above $100. “We expect more downside risks than upside at the moment, and see a higher potential to touch $75 by the end of 2024 versus a sustained movement beyond $100 a barrel,” Morningstar’s Ellis said. Iran’s retaliation can now prompt profit taking and prices could be easing, but this is not the end of risk premiums, consultancy FGE said in a note on Monday. Despite pressure from allies on Israel to limit a possible response, further escalation is not entirely off the cards, but FGE says that “Our base case is that the worst has passed.” FGE’s base case is now for OPEC+ to decide to unwind some of the production cuts as of July. Even with another up to 1 million bpd from OPEC+ output back on the market, Brent is still expected to average $90-$95 a barrel in the third quarter with the ongoing political risk, the consultancy said.

Israel reportedly finalizes plans for counter-strike against Iran

The Israeli military is said to have finalized its strategy for the response to the weekend attack by Iranian forces, people familiar with the matter told The Jerusalem Post on Tuesday. Sources indicate that while the specific timing of the retaliatory action against Iran and its proxies remains undecided, the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) have agreed on the nature of the response they intend to deliver.Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) spokesperson Daniel Hagari previously stated Iran would not “get off scot-free” following the drone and missile attack its military launched on April 13.

Can Iran defend its nuclear assets from Israel’s firepower?

Tehran is tense, two days after Iran’s unprecedented direct attack on Israel.

Worried about war and its impact on Iran’s already flailing economy, a significant proportion of Iranians oppose what they see as the reckless adventurism of the country’s elite Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), which fired more than 300 drones and missiles on Saturday night. In a letter sent to BBC Persian, a long list of Iranian activists both inside the country and abroad criticised the IRGC’s actions and saying “No to warmongering!” Many Iranians also see the Iran-Israel confrontation now emerging from the shadows as being orchestrated by the Iranian government rather than reflective of the will of the Iranian people.

This perception is underscored by a heavy police presence on the streets of Tehran – ostensibly about enforcing strict Islamic dress codes requiring women to cover their hair but which many suspect is mainly about crushing any possible protests. Some decision-makers fear that if Iranian security forces and the IRGC’s command centres are hit in a war with Israel and the US, this could reignite nationwide protests that erupted in 2022 after the death of a young woman in police custody. Some graffiti has appeared on walls in Iranian cities – “Israel, strike the supreme leader’s [Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s] house,” reads one. “Israel hit them, they lack the courage to retaliate,” read another. The government has its own billboards – “Tel Aviv is our battleground, not Tehran,” reads one. Immediately after the IRGC attack, supporters of the Islamic Republic celebrated and a banner warning Israelis that “the next slap will be fiercer” was hung from a building in Tehran. “I believe it was the right decision to attack Israel to prevent further killings of Iranian commanders in Syria and elsewhere,” one woman said in a voice message sent to BBC Persian. But another said: “Iranians themselves are in a state of war with the current regime. We harbour no animosity towards any nation, including Israel.” Meanwhile a woman said she was concerned about a wider war. Such fears appeared to prompt people to scramble to stock up on essentials like food and fuel, with pictures showing queues forming outside petrol stations in Tehran and supermarkets inundated with shoppers.

With the official inflation rate standing at just over 40% and tens of millions of people struggling with the cost of living, a military confrontation with Israel was the last thing most Iranians wanted. The value of the Iranian rial fell against the US dollar after the IRGC attack, as it had already done after Israel’s earlier attack on the Iranian consulate in Syria. Many worry that, sooner or later, the military escalations will hike the prices of many goods, from mobile phones to home appliances and many foodstuffs. The Iranian government sets the price of some essential items such as bread and fuel, and lets many items be imported on a preferential exchange rate (in other words cheap foreign currency). But still the price of many goods follow the open market exchange rate. Iran’s economy has been struggling since the US left an international deal to limit Iran’s nuclear activities in 2018 and re-imposed crippling sanctions, particularly curbing Iran’s ability to export crude oil. On Tuesday, Iranian newspapers were focusing on international pressure on Israel to show restraint but also attempting to allay any economic concerns. Iran’s press – which reflects a range of political viewpoints, albeit within unwritten rules – has been largely supportive of the IRGC action.

Israel reportedly finalizes plans for counter-strike against Iran

The Israeli military is said to have finalized its strategy for the response to the weekend attack by Iranian forces, people familiar with the matter told The Jerusalem Post on Tuesday. Sources indicate that while the specific timing of the retaliatory action against Iran and its proxies remains undecided, the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) have agreed on the nature of the response they intend to deliver .Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) spokesperson Daniel Hagari previously stated Iran would not “get off scot-free” following the drone and missile attack its military launched on April 13.

Israel warns Iran won’t get off ‘scot-free’ after missile attack

Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) spokesperson Daniel Hagari underlined on Tuesday that Iran’s drone and missile attack over the weekend will not go unpunished, vowing that Israel would respond to the strikes. “We cannot stand still from this kind of aggression, Iran will not get [off] scot-free with this aggression,” Daniel Hagari told reporters at Julis military base. “We will respond in our time, in our place, in the way that we will choose,” he added. Earlier today, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi reassured his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin that Tehran is “not interested” in further escalating the tensions in the Middle East.

Iran’s Attack on Israel Sparks Global Concerns of Escalation

  • Iran launched over 300 missiles and drones at Israel, leading to fears of a broader Middle East conflict.
  • Israel’s war cabinet deliberates on the appropriate response, with differing opinions within the government.
  • Global leaders stress the importance of de-escalation and diplomacy to prevent further conflict escalation.

Leading diplomats and politicians across the globe, fearing another major escalation of fighting in the Middle East, urged restraint as the world waited for Israel’s response after it endured an unprecedented air attack by Iran over the weekend. Tehran fired more than 300 missiles and drones at Israel late on April 13, almost all of which were shot down by Israeli defense systems, along with intercepts by forces from the United States, France, Britain, and Jordan. Only a few missiles reached Israeli territory, causing modest damage to an air base and critically wounding a 7-year-old girl. Israel and Iran have been bitter enemies for decades, but this was the first direct attack by one on the other’s soil instead of through proxy forces or by targeting each other’s assets operating in third countries. The Israeli war cabinet was set to meet on April 15, with some hard-liners within the right-wing government said to be advocating a harsh response, while others were pushing for a more moderate decision. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu promised victory, while an influential member of the war cabinet said the country will retaliate in the “fashion and time” of its choosing.”We’re on the edge of the cliff and we have to move away from it,” European Union foreign policy chief Josep Borrell, who said he spoke with Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian late on April 14, told Spanish radio station Onda Cero. “We have to step on the brakes and reverse gear.” Added British Foreign Secretary David Cameron in an interview on April 15 with the BBC: “I think they’re perfectly justified to think they should respond because they have been attacked, but we are urging them as friends to think with head as well as heart, to be smart as well as tough.” Iran, which said it was responding to a suspected Israeli air strike on the Iranian Embassy compound in Damascus early last month that killed two brigadier generals, called on Western nations to “appreciate” the restraint it showed since the embassy attack and warned it will act more “resolutely” if “Israel crosses red lines.” The United States reiterated its “ironclad commitment” to the security of Israel but reportedly told the Jewish state it will not take part in any retaliatory action. Speaking late on April 14 at an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council, Secretary-General Antonio Guterres called for “maximum restraint” amid fears that Iran’s unprecedented attack on Israel could turn into a larger regional war. “The Middle East is on the brink…. Now is the time to defuse and de-escalate,” Guterres said. After the meeting ended without any resolution, U.S. Deputy Ambassador to the UN Robert Wood said “there has to be a Security Council response to what happened.” The Iranian launch came amid heightened tensions between Iran and the West over the continuing war in the Gaza Strip and a deadly air strike on April 1 believed to have been carried out by Israel on the Iranian Consulate in Syria. U.S. officials said Washington had been indirect contact with Iran through Swiss intermediaries before and after the attack, without providing details, but Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Nasser Kanaani cautioned on April 15 that no pre-arranged deal was made with any country regarding how Tehran would approach its military response to Israel. Israel’s retaliatory war in Gaza was sparked by a raid on Israeli territory carried out by Hamas, which rules Gaza and is designated as a terrorist group by the United States and European Union, on October 7. The raid left 1,200 people dead and hundreds of people were taken hostage. The ensuing Israeli invasion of the Gaza Strip aimed at destroying Hamas has killed more than 33,000 Palestinians, according to the Palestinian territory’s Hamas-run Health Ministry. Since the war in Gaza began, Tehran has openly supported militant groups and proxies targeting Israel that are part of Iran’s “axis of resistance” against Israel and the West, leading to concerns of a broader Middle East conflict involving archenemies Iran and Israel. While Russia, seen as close to Tehran, has stopped short of publicly criticizing Iran for the attack on Israel, the Kremlin on April 15 said “further escalation is in no one’s interests” and called for finding a solution through “political and diplomatic methods.”

Iran vows to respond ‘within seconds’ if Israel attacks…….. Iran warns against support for Israel, vows strong response…… Netanyahu: Iran ‘threatens world peace’

Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri Kani stressed on Monday that Tehran would not wait to respond to Israel’s potential attack, vowing that its response would occur “within less than a few seconds.” On April 13, the Iranian military launched an aerial attack on Israel, in what it described to be a military operation in retaliation for Israel’s deadly attack on the Iranian consulate in Syria’s capital city of Damascus earlier this month. The Pentagon previously refused to reveal any information about Israel’s potential response to the Iranian rocket barrage. Israeli media reported that Israel does not plan to engage in an “all-out war” with Iran following the latest developments.

Iran warns against support for Israel, vows strong response

Iran’s Armed Forces Spokesman Brigadier General Abolfazl Shekarchi issued a warning to Western leaders, urging them to cease their support for Israel, which he referred to as a “moribund regime” engaged in terrorism. Shekarchi emphasized Iran’s stance against war expansion but vowed to respond to any aggression, asserting that Iran “will cut off any hand that attacks our country.” “Any aggression from ‘Israel’ or its supporters will be met with a stronger response than before,” the spokesman said.

Netanyahu: Iran ‘threatens world peace’

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Monday stated that Iran “threatens world peace” and urged the international community to “stand united” against Iranian aggression,” the Prime Minister’s Office said in a post on X, formerly known as Twitter. The prime minister also thanked the United States, the United Kingdom, France, and other allies for their help in thwarting the Iranian drone and missile attack on Israel launched on Saturday night. Furthermore, Netanyahu said that US House of Representatives Majority Leader Steve Scalise expressed his support for Israel in a phone call, and informed the prime minister “of his initiative to advance in Congress, in the coming days, a series of measures against Iran and for Israel.”