During Monday’s virtual meeting between the United States and Israeli officials, the formers expressed serious concern about the looming threat of famine in Gaza and strongly criticized the Israeli Defense Forces’ (IDF) plans for Rafah, Israel’s Channel 12 reported on Tuesday, citing a readout of the meeting. “You’re going to be responsible for the third famine crisis of the 21st century. That is not something we can accept as partners. The [Rafah] evacuation plan you’ve presented thus far is not impressive and is not implementable,” the broadcaster added, citing US National Security Advisor (NSA) Jake Sullivan. The report further stated that the American representatives reiterated that if Israel wants approval from the US for any operation in Rafah, they must provide a viable plan for the “day after” in Gaza.
Ukrainian Drones Hit Russia’s Third-Largest Oil Refinery
Ukrainian drones hit the primary refining unit of Russia’s third-largest refinery southeast of Moscow more than 800 miles from the front line, Reuters reported on Tuesday. The Taneco refinery of Russian company Tatneft in Tatarstan, an industrialized region southeast of Moscow, was attacked by Ukrainian drones in the latest such attack from Ukraine on Russian refining infrastructure.The refinery has a capacity to process 340,000 barrels per day (bpd) of crude. Its primary refining unit, with a capacity to process about 155,000 bpd, was hit in Tuesday’s attack, according to pictures seen by Reuters. The unit caught fire, which was swiftly extinguished, Russian media report. They also quote Ramil Mullin, the mayor of the city of Nizhnekamsk, where the refinery is located, as saying that there have been no injured people in the attack. A source with the Ukrainian intelligence in Kyiv told Reuters that Ukraine hit a major Russian oil facility in Tatarstan to reduce Russian oil revenues. Ukraine has stepped up attacks on oil refineries in Russia in recent weeks, which have reduced Russian refining capacity, and which, reportedly, have the White House concerned about rising international prices. The United States has repeatedly urged Ukraine to halt its drone attacks on Russian oil refineries due to Washington’s assessment that the strikes could lead to Russian retaliation and push up global oil prices, the Financial Times reported last month, citing sources familiar with the exchange. According to Reuters estimates, the amount of Russian oil refining capacity that has been taken offline due to Ukrainian drone strikes is 14% of Russia’s total refining capacity.Calculations show that 900,000 bpd of refining capacity have been taken offline by drone strikes, Reuters reported last week.
Iran Vows Revenge on Israel For Strike on Consulate in Syria
- Senior general killed in air strike on embassy compound
- Tehran says Israel bears full responsibility for consequences
Iran said it would take revenge on Israel for a deadly air strike on its embassy compound in Syria — a rare direct confrontation in the adversaries’ escalating proxy conflict over the war in Gaza.
“The crime won’t remain unanswered,” Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi said, according to the semi-official Tasnim news agency.
The strike in Damascus late Monday killed at least seven Iranian personnel including senior military commanders and destroyed the consulate building, according to Iranian state media. Israel hasn’t confirmed the attack, in keeping with its usual response to accusations of targeting Iran.
Among the dead was Mohammadreza Zahedi, a high-ranking general linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, who previously led its Quds Force in Syria and Lebanon. Oil advanced to near a five-month high after the attack. While Israel has struck Iran-linked targets in Syria for years, including suspected assassinations of individual personnel, Monday night’s attack would be the first time that it’s directly hit an Iranian diplomatic facility. The air strikes have increased since the outbreak in October of the war with Gaza-based Hamas, an Iran-backed group that’s designated a terrorist organization by the US and European Union. In a flurry of late-night diplomatic activity, Iran’s Foreign Ministry summoned the Swiss envoy who represents US diplomatic interests in Iran at 12:45 a.m. local time on Tuesday. An Israeli air strike on Iran’s embassy compound in Syria killed a number of people including a top military commander, Iranian and Syrian state media said. Israeli officials didn’t confirm the strike. Bloomberg’s Patrick Sykes reports.
Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian wrote on X that Iran sent Washington an “important message” and emphasized “the responsibility of the American government” in Monday’s attack due to its support for Israel.
Three hours later he discussed the incident by phone with his counterpart in Oman, which has previously served as a mediator between Iran and the US. The US told Iran that it wasn’t involved in the strike and didn’t know about it ahead of time, Axios reported, citing an unidentified National Security Council spokesperson. Israel hasn’t confirmed the strike, in keeping with its usual response to such accusations.
Iran’s top security body also held a late-night meeting to discuss the incident. A statement said the Supreme National Security Council took “appropriate decisions,” without elaborating.
Hezbollah, the Lebanese militia backed by Iran that’s launched near daily rocket attacks on northern Israel, vowed that it “won’t go without punishment and revenge against the enemy. ”Any retaliation will need to be measured against the risk of inviting a further Israeli counterstrike. In January, Iran fired missiles at what it called an Israeli spy base in northern Iraq in response to the assassination of another of its commanders in Syria.
NN AUDIO FILE
BREAKOUT OIL TRDE
WTI up to $84 per barrel, hits 5-month high
Crude oil prices for front-month contracts rose on Monday, with the main oil benchmark for North America, West Texas Intermediate, reaching its highest level since late October 2023. The upward movement of oil prices appeared to be propelled by stronger-than-expected manufacturing activity in the United States which seemingly brightened the demand outlook at the start of the second quarter. The ongoing turmoil in the Middle East and Ukraine further exerted pressure on crude prices. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for May delivery rose 0.90% to sell at $84.03 per barrel at 11:02 am ET. Brent for June settlement was up 0.63% to $87.63 a barrel at the same time. NN: You got to love the golden cross
Ukraine’s power firm severely damaged by Russian strikes
DTEK, Ukraine’s largest private energy provider, reported on Saturday significant damages to its infrastructure due to Russian missile and drone attacks,
According to the head of the firm, Dmytro Sakharuk, five of its six plants were damaged or destroyed, resulting in the loss of 80% of its generating capacity, with repairs potentially taking up to 18 months.
President Volodymyr Zelensky condemned the attacks in his nightly address, describing them as “vile strikes” aimed at debilitating Ukraine’s energy capabilities.
Zelensky: We will have to retreat without US support……. Russia destroys Ukrainian ammo depot in Dnieper direction……. Power outages hit Odessa region
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said in an interview with The Washington Post published on Friday that his country’s forces would have to begin to retreat in its war against Russia unless the United States provides Kiev with more weapons and other military aid. “If there is no US support, it means that we have no air defense, no Patriot missiles, no jammers for electronic warfare, no 155-milimeter artillery rounds,” Zelensky claimed. “It means we will go back, retreat, step by step, in small steps,” he added. The Ukrainian president insisted his country’s troops are “trying to find some way not to retreat” and that the military’s “smart steps” after Russia’s takeover of Avdiivka helped stabilize the situation for the time being. Still he insisted Ukraine must take steps to launch a counteroffensive because if it doesn’t, “Russia will do it.”
Russia destroys Ukrainian ammo depot in Dnieper direction
The Russian Defense Ministry said on Saturday that the Russian military destroyed a Ukrainian ammunition depot on the right bank of the Dnieper River. The troops also destroyed Ukrainian camouflaged firing positions, the ministry said. The Russian forces used kamikaze drones to attack Ukrainian soldiers in trenches, the ministry added. It did not provide an estimate of damage and casualties.
Power outages hit Odessa region
Emergency power outages were observed in Odessa and its surrounding region due to damages sustained by an energy facility, as reported by energy utility company Ukrenergo on Sunday. The disruption resulted in emergency shutdowns in Odessa and nearby areas due to equipment damage, with potential for increased shutdowns as consumption rises. Last night, an air raid alert was issued across Ukraine, including Odessa, and this morning, Natalya Gumenyuk, the official representative of the operational command “South” of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, confirmed damage to the energy facility area.
NN: Ukraine is running out of ammo and becoming more desperate by the day. And desperate people do desperate things. Like bombing Russian oil export terminals on the Baltic and Black sea. I am sure $5.00 gasoline will get Biden get reelection attention.
Hamas sets out four conditions for ceasefire talks
Hamas stressed on Saturday that successful indirect ceasefire negotiations depend on four conditions. The Palestinian group said
- Israel must stop all hostilities,
2. Withdraw from Gaza,
3. Allow displaced Palestinians to return to their homes,
4. Let humanitarian aid enter the enclave.
Ceasefire talks have made little progress in the months after the previous pause in the conflict in late November 2023. Negotiations are led by mediators such as Qatar and Egypt and were recently described as “stuck.”
NN Audio File
DREAM DREM DREAM
Novak: Russia to cut oil production in Q2……… Novak rules out complete diesel export ban for now
Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak announced on Friday that Russia will be implementing oil production cuts in the second quarter of 2024 to align with the rest of the OPEC+ member countries. According to Novak, Russia will reduce oil production and exports gradually. In April, production will be reduced by an additional 350,000 barrels per day (bpd) and exports will decrease by 121,000 bpd. In May, production will see a decline of 400,000 bpd with exports cut by 71,000 bpd. By June, production will be reduced by approximately 471,000 bpd. The oil companies will adjust their production levels based on their share of the country’s total oil output. Novak emphasized that these measures aim to ensure a fair contribution from all countries towards the reduction of production and market stabilization.
Novak rules out complete diesel export ban for now
Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak (pictured) ruled out the implementation of a complete prohibition on the export of diesel fuel from Russia, stating that the country produces sufficient quantities, Ria reported on Friday. “No, we produce diesel in sufficient volume, twice as much as is required to supply the domestic market, so there is simply nowhere to put it,” he said when asked about the necessity of imposing an export ban on diesel fuel. As a result of market saturation, the aforementioned ban was lifted in late November. In an effort to maintain stability in the domestic market, the Russian government recently imposed a prohibition on the export of gasoline from the country between March 1 and August 31.
Oil Prices Surge as Russia Strikes Ukrainian Energy Facilities…….. Ukrainian power plants damaged by Russian assault
Russia has targeted Ukranian energy facilities in an overnight attack with long-range precision weapons, Russia’s Defense Ministry said on Friday. “Last night, the Russian Armed Forces delivered a combined strike by air-launched, seaborne and ground-based long-range precision weapons, including Kinzhal aero-ballistic hypersonic missiles, and also by unmanned aerial vehicles against energy facilities and air defense sites of the Ukrainian army. The goals of the strike were achieved. All the targets were struck,” The ministry said. Ukraine’s largest power provider, DTEK, said that three of its thermal power stations were targeted in the overnight attacks. According to the Ukrainian military, the attack included dozens of missiles and at least 60 explosive drones—all aimed at energy infrastructure. Ukraine said that 84 of 99 missiles were shot down, but the late-night attacks did manage to damage Ukraine’s energy assets in six separate regions, some of which triggered emergency shutdowns. The Russian attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure come after Ukraine stepped up its drone attacks on Russian refineries in recent weeks, reducing Russia’s overall refinery capacity and cutting into Russia’s refinery output, including gasoline and diesel production for its own domestic market. The United States had urged Ukraine to stop its attacks on Russia’s refineries on concerns that any Russian retaliation could result in a spike in crude oil prices. Rising crude oil prices, which lead to higher gasoline prices, are problematic for sitting U.S. presidents in election years. Earlier this week, Russia attacked an underground natural gas storage site in Ukraine, but the attack did not disrupt supply.
Ukrainian power plants damaged by Russian assault
Thermal and hydroelectric power plants in central and western Ukraine were damaged by a Russian overnight assault, Ukrenergo, the country’s electricity transmission system operator reported in a post on Telegram on Friday. “During the combined attack, energy facilities were hit again. Thermal and hydroelectric power plants in the central and western regions were damaged,” the report stated. DTEK Holdings Limited, Ukraine’s largest private energy firm, shared that its equipment was “seriously” damaged in the attack. According to the company’s statement, one engineer was injured. Earlier, Russian forces launched an assault aimed at infrastructure sites near the central Ukrainian city of Dnipro.
Oil Prices Gain 2% on Tightening Supply
U.S. benchmark crude gained over $2 on Thursday as U.S. crude inventories tightened and OPEC+ vowed to keep the output cut status quo as tensions continued to flare in the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine. At 4:23 p.m. ET on Thursday, U.S. crude benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) trading up 2.05% at $83.02, while global benchmark Brent crude was trading up 1.61% at $87.48. WTI has gained 14% so far this year. This week’s inventory data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed a U.S. crude oil stockpile build of 3.2 million barrels, compared to the previous week’s draw of 2 million barrels. In both cases, the data showed a draw in gasoline inventories, helping to support oil prices. That data, released on Wednesday, put downward pressure on oil prices initially. However, after some time to digest the data, which analysts said was a smaller increase than anticipated for this time of year, prices shifted into rally mode. “We … expect U.S. inventories to rise less than normal in reflection of a global oil market in a slight deficit,” Reuters quoted SEB analyst Bjarne Schieldrop as saying. “This will likely hand support to the Brent crude oil price going forward.” Also putting upwards pressure on oil prices is the continued intensification of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which has focused most recently on energy infrastructure. A Ukrainian drone attack last week on a Russian refinery operated by state-run Rosneft has resulted in a production shutdown after damage to the refinery’s crude processing capacity.
Ukraine has stepped up attacks on oil refineries in Russia in recent weeks, which have reduced Russian refining capacity, and which, reportedly, have the White House concerned about rising international prices. Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries in recent weeks have taken out as much as 600,000 barrels in daily processing capacity in Russia.
On Thursday, JP Morgan suggested that oil prices could rise further, pointing to Russia’s decision to impose additional curbs on production.“ Russia’s actions could push Brent oil price to $90 already in April, reach mid-$90 by May and close to $100 by September,” they wrote in a note, as quoted by Investing.com. OPEC is meeting again next week and expectations are that it will leave its production policy unchanged.
NN AUDIO FILE
Grinding Higher