The Israeli war cabinet has decided to retaliate “clearly and forcefully” against the missile and drone attack carried out by Iran on Saturday, The Times of Israel reported on Monday citing the local broadcaster Channel 12. The report says Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi think that Israel should take action in response, but without harming the US-led coalition that played a crucial role in assisting Israel in defending itself against the Iranian attack. Israel intends to convey the message that it “will not allow an attack of that magnitude against it to pass without a reaction.” The response will be coordinated with the United States, the media added
Biden wants to prevent larger Middle East conflict
United States President Joe Biden on Monday expressed Washington’s willingness to prevent the further widening of the conflict in the Middle East, underlining the country’s commitment to protect the interests of the United States and its allies in the region, including Iraq. During the meeting with Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ Al Sudani at the White House, the US president stated that Washington is determined to secure a ceasefire between Hamas and Israel that would “bring hostages home.” Biden highlighted that the United States and Iraq are working to jointly defeat ISIS. The Iraqi prime minister stated that the ties between Washington and Baghdad stand at an “important juncture,” with Iraq striving to shift from a military relationship to a comprehensive partnership with the United States.
US officials and their allies are focusing efforts now on ensuring any retaliation from Israel doesn’t raise the stakes too high.
The huge salvo of missiles and drones launched from the arid plains of Iran toward Israel was the kind of direct conflict between the Middle East powers that the world had long feared would mark the explosion of a full-blown regional war. But behind the unprecedented nature of the attack was a dance of diplomatic signaling that allowed both sides to claim success, raising the risk of a broader conflict without making it a certainty. The Israeli military said 99% of the barrage was shot down and no Israelis were killed after Iran had signaled for days it was coming. Tehran said it had made its point, seeking to put the march toward a wider conflagration on hold. Israel’s backers in the US and Europe were also pressing to avoid any further escalation in calls on Sunday. For all the steps toward the brink since Hamas attacked Israel on Oct. 7, the Jewish state and its enemies have managed to stop short of the precipice, even as violence has spread to other countries in the Middle East. What changed over the weekend is that the latest US-led diplomatic efforts — until now focused on deescalating the crisis in Gaza — are being targeted at ensuring any response from Israel is measured, according to people familiar with the discussions.
US officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, said while the attack was meant to be deadly and destructive, Washington is urging Israel against retaliation.
The concern, though, is that logic might not prevail, according to a person familiar with the discussions. Indeed, one wildcard is the pressure on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu from hardliners in his government, though the success in defeating the Iranian strike may strengthen his hand.The attack by Iran was “very calibrated” to limit the damage, said Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East & North Africa Program at Chatham House. Still, she said, “we’re closer than ever to a broader regional war.” Iran’s latest assault was a dramatic escalation, with the hardline government striking directly for the first time after decades relying on proxies like Hamas and Hezbollah to fight a shadow war with its main regional rival. It showed with the massive barrage that it was ready to challenge Israel’s superior military head on, something no other power had dared to do for decades. The US moved ships and planes into position and vowed to help protect Israel. The UK and Jordan were also involved. Oil markets steadied on Monday after Israel repulsed the attack but the prospect of $100 for a barrel of oil is now looming again, while Bloomberg Economics predicts a direct war between Israel and Iran would thrust the world economy into recession. But Iran, seeking to avoid a spiraling conflict with Israel’s superior military, preceded the operation with days of public and private warnings. Its officials described its intent to retaliate to countries in the region, according to a person with knowledge of the briefings, a move which enabled this message to reach the US indirectly. American officials said there was no direct warning to the US. Though the damage was limited, Iranian officials touted the operation as a successful retaliation for an April 1 attack on a diplomatic compound in Damascus that killed several of Iran’s military commanders. Iran blamed that hit on Israel, whose government hasn’t taken responsibility. On Sunday, Israel was also celebrating having defeated the onslaught, able to demonstrate again the country’s military prowess in downing the missiles and protecting its citizens following criticism in the wake of the Hamas attack six months ago. For Netanyahu, there’s also a renewed demonstration of support from the US and its allies after months of escalating public criticism of Israel’s deadly military operation in Gaza, including from President Joe Biden. Congressional leaders are planning a long-delayed vote on additional aid for this week. US officials who had warned in the days before the attack that the situation was extremely dangerous were relieved the defenses had worked and damage hadn’t been worse. They called on Israel in public and in private to resist the desire to retaliate against Iran, or at least to keep whatever response there is limited enough to prevent raising the stakes further.
Israel made clear to the US on Sunday it’s not looking for a significant escalation with Iran, according to US officials. They’re looking to protect themselves and defend themselves, one official said. “Remember, these are two parties that have a very long history with one another,” said Michael Singh, a former top White House official who is now managing director at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. “Neither would like to see this erupt into a full scale war. Does that mean a miscalculation can’t happen? Absolutely not.” Calls in Israel for another round of retaliation, this time directly against Iran, added to the fears. National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir demanded a “crushing attack.” While Netanyahu didn’t endorse that appeal, Israel’s war is still far from over.
Many in Israel aren’t clamoring for a quick flex of the muscle, partly because Iran’s attack was so unsuccessful.
For the moment, the weekend attack seemed to signal that the deterrence that’s kept Iran from widening the war into a full-on battle with Israel still holds. Iran is trying to draw a “new line,” according to Dana Stroul, who until December was the Pentagon’s deputy assistant secretary for the Middle East.
“If Israel targets any of its officials abroad, even when those officials are engaged in terrorist activities, Iran will respond with attacks like we saw last night,” she said. Israeli leaders “will need to respond,” but in a way that will “prevent opening a new escalatory cycle that tips into full scale regional war,” she said.
Though potentially devastating, the assault appeared designed more to demonstrate resolve than to overcome Israel’s defenses, said one western diplomat.
Still, officials in the region said they expect some kind of response by Israel, given the unprecedented nature of Iran’s direct attack. Just how severe it is will show whether the march toward the brink of broader conflict is in fact on hold.
The lack of damage and casualties means that the Israelis could limit their strike, said Mark Cancian, a defense analyst with the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. “Maybe they will attack a military base that launched the missiles, maybe a production factory, maybe Iranian naval assets,” he said. “Everyone is watching to see what the Israelis will do.”
Republican lawmakers demanded the U.S. launch a retaliatory strike against Iran for the drone and missile attacked launched against Israel. On Saturday, Iran launched hundreds of suicide drones toward Israel and later ballistic missiles in a retaliatory attack for an airstrike on the Iranian consulate building in Syria that killed Tehran’s top commanders. President Joe Biden vowed prior to the attack to do everything possible to protect Israel. However, aid to Israel amid the country’s war with Hamas has been delayed due to division within the Republican party. Following the attack, Rep. Steve Scalise (R-LA) announced the House will move forward next week to consider a bill that will provide Israel with an aid package. “In light of Iran’s unjustified attack on Israel, the House will move from its previously announced legislative schedule next week to instead consider legislation that supports our ally Israel and holds Iran and its terrorist proxies accountable,” Scalise wrote. “The House of Representatives stands strongly with Israel, and there must be consequences for this unprovoked attack.” Sen. Linsday Graham (R-SC) praised the decision by House leadership while adding that Iran must face consequcnces for attacking a U.S. ally. Prayers for our ally, Israel, who is under attack by the Ayatollah and his henchmen. It is long past time for Iran to pay a heavy price for the terrorism they sow throughout the world. I’m glad to see the House will take up the Israel aid package next week and hope they will do the same for Ukraine, making it a loan as President Trump suggested,” Graham wrote on X. He added, “The world is a dangerous place, and we have to show resolve for our friends and determination against our enemies.” Sen. Marsha Blackburn also took to X, formerly Twitter, to demand Biden launch an immediate “aggressive retaliatory strikes on Iran.”
Israel and allies including the US, UK and France managed to mostly foil an unprecedented attack by Iran on the Jewish state. The Islamic Republic fired more than 300 drones and missiles against Israel on Saturday evening. Almost all were intercepted before they reached Israeli airspace and there were no fatalities reported. A 10-year-old girl in Israel was badly injured by falling shrapnel, while an army base was lightly damaged. US President Joe Biden said he condemned the assault — the first from Iranian soil against Israel — in the strongest terms and Israeli officials warned it was “a severe and dangerous escalation” from Tehran. Yet neither said they would retaliate against Iran, which had promised an attack against Israel after its embassy compound in Syria was hit by missiles on April 1, killing seven Iranian officers Israel Defense Minister Yoav Gallant says hundreds of missiles and drones fired by Iran were blocked by Israel, the US and others “with great success.” Iran said it would not carry out further assaults in the absence of a strong reaction from Israel. Stock markets in Israel, Saudi Arabia and elsewhere in the Middle East fell on Sunday, but only slightly. “We see this operation as achieving a complete result and there’s no intention to continue” it, the chief of staff of Iran’s military, Mohammad Bagheri, told state TV on Sunday. Iran was capable, he said, of an attack “tens of times” bigger but deliberately limited it. Biden will speak with Group of Seven leaders on Sunday “to coordinate a united diplomatic response,” according to a White House statement.
He spoke to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and reiterated Washington’s support for the country was “ironclad.” However, he said the US wouldn’t support an Israeli counterattack against Iran, Axios reported, citing an unidentified White House official. Israel’s cabinet is expected to meet on Sunday afternoon to discuss the country’s response. “This campaign is not over yet and we need to remain prepared,” Israel’s defense minister, Yoav Gallant said. “Israel withstood the attack tonight. The IDF blocked this attack in the most impressive way, together with our partners. The entire world saw tonight what Iran is, a country of terror.” Oil prices rose in the wake of the Syria strike, with Brent climbing above $90 a barrel and analysts saying it could reach $100 on a direct conflict between Iran and Israel. The Israeli shekel weakened and neared its weakest level this year. On Sunday, Israeli stocks increased as much as 0.7% in early trading, but reversed those gains as of 11:40 a.m. in Tel Aviv. Saudi Arabia, which said it had “deep concern over the military escalation developments in the region,” saw its main bourse drop 0.5%.
“Iran designed its retaliation to cause maximum symbolism, but minimum damage,” said Ziad Daoud, chief emerging-markets economist for Bloomberg Economics. “By itself, it shouldn’t move markets. But if it triggers an Israeli counter-response, then we’re spiraling into somewhere very dangerous. Key to what happens next is whether the US can restrain the Israeli reaction.”
Israel’s military said Iran launched about 170 drones, 30 cruise missiles and 120 ballistic missiles. Only the latter penetrated Israeli airspace and in “very small numbers,” according to the Israel Defense Forces. The drones and cruise missiles were all intercepted before they got to Israel.
Iran’s Attack on Israel
A US defense official confirmed its forces in the region — bulked up since the Israel-Hamas war erupted on Oct. 7 — shot down Iranian-launched drones. UK and French forces were also involved. “Thanks to these deployments and the extraordinary skill of our servicemembers, we helped Israel take down nearly all of the incoming drones and missiles,” Biden said. Israel has upgraded its air defenses considerably over the past decade and a half, adding new systems for interceptions of ballistic missiles fired from as far away as 2,400 kilometers (1,500 miles). That range includes Yemen, Syria and Iraq, where militant groups allied with Iran are based, as well as Iran.
The Israeli government has not yet decided on how it will respond to Iran’s retaliatory overnight attacks on its territory, the Times of Israel reported on Sunday, citing an Israeli official. According to the report, Israel’s war cabinet will discuss its potential response at a meeting scheduled for 3:00 pm local time (2:00 pm CET). After launching the strikes, Iran said the action was a “legitimate response” to Israel’s attack on its consulate in Damascus, while reports claimed Israel is planning a “significant response” to Tehran’s drone and missile attacks. NN: It would be a colossal fuck up if Israel does not attack Iran’s nuclear facilities.
More than 300 projectiles were heading toward Israel on Sunday, The New York Times reported citing two Israeli officials, which was later confirmed by Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) spokesman Daniel Hagari. According to the officials, while most of the projectiles were fired from Iran, a small number also came from Iraq and Yemen. The officials further detailed that Iran launched 185 drones, 110 surface-to-surface missiles, and 36 cruise missiles. Hagari said that 99% of these projectiles were neutralized by air defenses. Meanwhile, another Israeli official, cited by Channel 12, said that “Iran’s attack was a strategic failure,” adding that now they should get ready “and not sleep in peace.”
Iran tells UN it’s not looking for ‘escalation’
Iran’s Permanent Mission to the United Nations told the agency that it has no intention to escalate the conflict in the Middle East. In a letter, Iranian representatives said that the operation against Israel was launched due to the UN Security Council’s “inaction and silence, coupled with its failure to condemn the Israeli regime’s aggressions.” “Certain countries’ precipitous condemnation of Iran’s exercise of its legitimate right suggests a reversal of roles, equating the victim with the criminal,” it was further written. Meanwhile, the UNSC has decided to hold a meeting over Tehran’s actions.
Iran has initiated a significant aerial attack on Israel, deploying dozens of drones and potentially missiles, as confirmed by both US and Israeli officials this Saturday.
In a televised address, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that “in recent years, and even more so in recent weeks, Israel has been preparing for the possibility of a direct attack from Iran.” The attack was widely anticipated by US and Israeli intelligence agencies, which have been on high alert, expecting a forceful response from Tehran to last week’s attack on Iran’s embassy in Damascus, Syria.
According to Iranian media, the drones were launched from Yemen and may have been Iran’s HESA Shahed 136, a type of kamikaze uncrewed aerial vehicle designed to attack ground targets from a distance. The Shahed 136, also known as Geran-2, is intended to overwhelm enemy air defenses by being fired in salvoes.
Iran launched an attack on Israel, escalating long-standing tensions between the two nations.
Iran accused Israel of perpetrating a strike on its consulate in Damascus on April 1, and pledged to retaliate.
Israel also threatened a counterattack if Iran made any retaliatory moves, though Israel has neither confirmed nor denied its involvement in the Damascus strike.
Iran on Saturday launched attacks against Israel, according to the Israel Defense Forces, escalating long-standing tensions between the two nations that have the potential to trigger a regional war. Strains between Iran and Israel have been heating up since the start of the war in Gaza in October, and especially over the past several weeks after Iran accused Israel of perpetrating an attack on its consulate in Damascus on April 1.Iranian leaders, including Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, pledged to retaliate against Israel for the Damascus strike and Israel, in turn, threatened a counterattack of its own. Israel has neither confirmed nor denied its involvement in the Damascus attack.“If Iran attacks from its territory, Israel will react and attack in Iran,” Israeli Foreign Affairs Minister Israel Katz wrote in a Wednesday post on X, tagging the Ayatollah’s X account. Given Iran’s various warnings, the White House had been expecting an Iranian strike and had been communicating with Israel to ensure they would be prepared to defend themselves. On Friday, President Joe Biden said he anticipated that Iran might strike Israel “sooner than later.” Ahead of the attacks on Saturday, Biden was en route back to the White House, earlier than initially scheduled, to meet with his national security team amid the growing prospect of an Iranian strik.Earlier on Saturday, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard seized a Portuguese-flagged cargo ship with links to Israel in the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping route. The White House condemned the move shortly after. Ahead of the attack, Israel also announced that beginning on Sunday, it would close schools and limit gatherings to 1,000 people in certain areas.
John Kirby, the White House’s national security spokesman, said Friday that Iran’s threats to strike Israel remain “real” and “viable.” Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi, chief of Israel’s general staff, met with Kurilla about a possible Iranian attack after a separate meeting with commanders on the readiness of Israeli forces. Late Thursday, U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin had called Gallant to reassure him Washington would defend its closest ally in the region if Tehran struck on its soil. Austin told Gallant “Israel could count on full U.S. support to defend Israel against Iranian attacks, which Tehran has publicly threatened,” a Pentagon spokesman said. Iran has threatened to retaliate for an attack last week in Damascus, Syria, that Tehran said was an Israeli airstrike on a diplomatic building. The strike killed several top Iranian military officials, including a senior member of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ elite Quds Force. An Iranian strike on Israel could inflame the region as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government is under growing international pressure to wrap up its military campaign against Hamas militants in the Gaza Strip. Hamas’s Oct. 7 attacks in Israel, which killed around 1,200 people, and Israel’s subsequent offensive in Gaza, which has claimed more than 33,000 lives, have ratcheted up tensions in the Middle East to a level not seen in decades. In their phone call on Thursday, Gallant told Austin that “a direct Iranian attack would require an appropriate Israeli response against Iran,” the Israeli Defense Ministry said. U.S. officials, frustrated by Israel’s decision to not inform them about the Damascus strike, have pushed their Israeli counterparts to share information about how Israel could respond to an Iranian strike, U.S. officials said, in part to protect forces in the region. Netanyahu met Friday with senior security officials, including Gallant, to discuss Israel’s readiness for an Iranian response, according to Israeli officials. In Tel Aviv, residents went about their day on Friday, flocking to cafes and shops on the first day of the Israeli weekend. The scenarios for a potential attack on Israel that have been presented to Khamenei include strikes by Tehran’s proxies in Syria and Iraq, according to advisers to the Iranian Revolutionary Guard and the Syrian government. To avoid an attack within Israel’s internationally recognized territory, Iran and its allies could also attack the Golan Heights, a disputed territory annexed by Israel from Syria in 1981, the advisers said. Another option would be to hit Israeli embassies, notably in the Arab world, to show them that friendly ties with Israel could be costly, these people said. In recent days, social-media accounts associated with Iran’s Revolutionary Guard have stepped up messaging around a potential attack on Israel. Several widely shared posts include satellite images of prominent locations in Israel, such as Ben Gurion Airport, surrounded by Iranian attack drones. “What place do you love? The choice is in your hands,” the posts, which were picked up by several Israeli media, say in Hebrew. Another post includes a video showing an Iranian hypersonic missile with the Farsi caption “5 minutes to Haifa and Tel Aviv.”
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps seized an Israel-linked container ship near the Strait of Hormuz between the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman on Saturday, the state-run Islamic Republic News Agency reported. IRGC special forces boarded the MSC Aries from a helicopter and directed it toward Iranian territorial waters, the Islamic Republic News Agency said, without giving a reason for the seizure. The vessel’s beneficial owner is Zodiac Maritime Ltd., part of Israeli businessman Eyal Ofer’s Zodiac Group, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. No one responded to a call to Zodiac’s office in London, outside of normal business hours. The vessel last called at the United Arab Emirates’ Khalifa Port and was sailing east toward the Strait of Hormuz as of Friday evening local time. Security and intelligence firm Ambrey Analytics said it received information of a “boarding” around 50 nautical miles northeast of the UAE’s Fujairah. The seizure comes as Israel braces for an Iranian response to a suspected Israeli attack on Iran’s embassy in Syria on April 1. Potential scenarios had included an unprecedented drone and missile strike on Israeli territory as early as this week, Bloomberg reported. Zodiac’s ships have been repeatedly targeted in attacks in the same area in recent years that the US and Israel have blamed on Iran. Tehran previously denied involvement.
