Russian Navy Enters Warship-Crowded Red Sea Amid Houthi Attacks

Russian warships from the Pacific Fleet have crossed the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait and entered the Red Sea, the state-run Tass news agency said, venturing into a maritime region plagued by Houthi attacks and crowded with naval vessels. The detachment included the missile cruiser Varyag and frigate Marshal Shaposhnikov, Tass reported Thursday, citing the Russian Pacific Fleet’s press service, which said the ships were carrying out “assigned tasks within the framework of the long-range sea campaign.” The ultimate destination of the ships was unclear from the report, as was the reason Russia sent vessels to the area.

For months, the Yemen-based Houthis have carried out a series of attacks on vessels in the Red Sea in retaliation for Israel’s military actions in Gaza, forcing many ships to redirect their journeys. The group told China and Russia earlier this month that their ships can sail through the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden without being attacked. In exchange, the two countries may provide political support to the Houthis in bodies such as the United Nations Security Council, according to several people with knowledge of the militant group’s discussions.

Source: Bloomberg

The Houthis, an Islamist group, say they’re targeting ships linked to Israel, the US and UK. Yet, they appear to have mis-identified some vessels. Missiles exploded near a ship hauling Russian oil near Yemen in late January. It happened days after a spokesman for the Houthis told a Russian newspaper that Russian and Chinese merchant ships needn’t fear attacks. The Houthis also fired a missile at Chinese-owned oil tanker Huang Pu on Saturday, US Central Command said, highlighting continued risks to shipping in the seas off Yemen despite the agreement. Since the attacks started, most Western shipping firms have avoided the strait and are instead going around southern Africa. However, US and UK warships in the Red Sea have been hitting Houthi targets in Yemen for weeks in an attempt to deter the militant group from attacks on merchant vessels, while Iran, which supports the Houthis, has a spy ship just outside the Red Sea. A French ship is also nearby. Earlier this month, Iran, Russia and China held joint naval exercises in the Indian Ocean, according to Russia’s Defense Ministry. Both the Varyag and Marshal Shaposhnikov took part in the drills, which Russia said were meant to practice “safety in maritime economic activities,” including liberating ships hijacked by pirates. Russia has also sought a naval base on the Red Sea in Sudan, though a civil conflict in that country may put back those plans. NN: Everyone is coming to the party.

Rosneft Refinery Offline Following Ukrainian Drone Attack

A refinery in southwestern Russia owned and operated by state oil giant Rosneft has been taken offline and all production stopped, due to damage following a drone attack from Ukraine last week, Reuters reported on Thursday, quoting sources in the industry. Rosneft’s Kuibyshev oil refinery in the region of Samara on the Volga River was hit by a drone attack this weekend and had already halted half of its crude processing capacity after one of the two primary crude refining units at the facility caught fire. Ukraine has stepped up attacks on oil refineries in Russia in recent weeks, which have reduced Russian refining capacity, and which, reportedly, have the White House concerned about rising international prices. The United States has repeatedly urged Ukraine to halt its drone attacks on Russian oil refineries due to Washington’s assessment that the strikes could lead to Russian retaliation and push up global oil prices, the Financial Times reported last week, citing sources familiar with the exchange. Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries in recent weeks have taken out as much as 600,000 barrels in daily processing capacity in Russia, according to commodity trading major Gunvor. “It is significant because obviously this is gonna hit the distillate exports straight away,” Gunvor chief executive Torbjörn Törnqvist told Bloomberg on the sidelines of the CERAWeek conference in Houston last week. “So that will probably take down exports by a couple of hundred thousand barrels, so to me, it’s a distillate problem,” the executive added.

According to Reuters estimates, the amount of Russian oil refining capacity that has been taken offline due to Ukrainian drone strikes is 14% of Russia’s total refining capacity.

Calculations show that 900,000 barrels per day of refining capacity have been taken offline by drone strikes, Reuters reported on Tuesday. This includes Lukoil’s Norsi and Volgograd refineries, and Rosneft’s Kuibyshev and Ryazan refineries, among others.

The U.S. Breaks Its Self-Imposed Oil Price Ceiling of $79 to Refill the SPR

The latest crude oil purchase that the Department of Energy made as part of refill plans for the strategic petroleum reserve cost an average of over $81 per barrel, exceeding the $79 ceiling set by the federal government. Per an Argus report, the DoE declined to comment on why it had bought the oil despite the higher price hinting at more news to come later today. Back in 2022, to arrest an inexorable climb in retail fuel prices, the White House announced a release of 180 million barrels of crude oil from the strategic petroleum reserve. Critics warned the move would have a limited effect on prices but compromise the energy security of the country by reducing the level of crude in the SPR. The final amount of oil released from the SPR ended up exceeding 180 million barrels with the DoE pledging to replenish the reserve in a timely fashion but only when prices were favorable. The SPR is currently close to a 40-year low as a result of the massive release. The replenishing effort has been going on slowly, with three million barrels bought there and another three bought here as the very news of a planned purchase led to an uptick in prices. This forced the department to update the price range, at which it would be buying, raising the top end from $72 per barrel last year to $79 per barrel. Yet oil prices have been on a climb recently and WTI broke the $80-yer-barrel threshold earlier this month. As of March 22, the SPR stood at 363 million barrels of crude, Argus reported, citing Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm as saying that it should be back to normal by the end of the year. This, however, will not be a result of the replenishment effort but of the cancellation of 140 million barrels in previously planned SPR sales for the period to 2031. NN: Typical government deal  sell the oil at $70 buy it back over $83.

Traders Are Buying Oil At The Fastest Rate Since 2020

  • Traders seem to have finally realized that OPEC+ is serious about keeping crude oil supply constrained.
  • Kemp: traders are buying oil at the fastest rate since 2020.
  • According to the Reuters numbers, in the week ending March 19, traders bought the equivalent of 140 million barrels across the six most traded crude and fuel contracts.

After months of skepticism, traders seem to have finally realized that OPEC+ is serious about keeping crude oil supply constrained. Per the latest weekly data from Reuters, as reported by market analyst John Kemp, traders are buying oil at the fastest rate since 2020. And oil prices are on the rise. Of course, OPEC is not the only factor behind the change in sentiment among traders. Refinery disruptions in Russia resulting from Ukrainian drone attacks have also had a lot to do with the growing bullishness on oil markets. Recent reports that the U.S. had urged the Ukrainians to stop targeting Russian refineries and the Ukrainians’ refusal to do so probably reinforced the effect, too. There is also the improvement in analysts’ outlooks for the global economy. The picture seems to no longer be as bleak as it was last year, so oil demand projections are improving. A month ago, the International Monetary Fund revised upwards its forecast for the global economy, and so did S&P Global Market Intelligence. So traders are once again buying oil in significant volumes.

According to the Reuters numbers, in the week ending March 19, traders bought the equivalent of 140 million barrels across the six most traded crude and fuel contracts. Crude was the most bought, with 57 million barrels in West Texas Intermediate changing hands during that week along with 55 million barrels of Brent crude. “Escalating geopolitical tension, coupled with a rise in attacks on energy facilities in Russia and Ukraine, alongside receding ceasefire hopes in the Middle East, raised concern over global oil supply,” Nissan Securities analyst Hiroyuki Kikukawa told Reuters in comments on the latest movements in prices.Yet while geopolitical factors play a big role in day-to-day price swings, the OPEC+ cuts normally have a longer-term effect—once it kicks in, and this time, it took a while.Saudi Arabia first announced in July that it would reduce the amount of oil it supplies to global markets. Some saw it as insignificant, while others dismissed it as a desperate attempt to prop up the unproppable as prices remained stubbornly stuck within a narrow range below $80 per barrel. Yet later, the rest of OPEC and its Russia-led partners also joined the Saudis—and prices still remained locked in their range. The factors that kept them there were the same that are now fueling the rally: a pessimistic outlook for the global economy, geopolitical tensions that weren’t affecting oil supply, and general skepticism about demand in the era of the energy transition. The tide only began to turn this year as the outlook for global GDP began to change, with the first data about 2023 starting to come in. In some places, things were as bad as they seemed, such as the eurozone. In other parts of the world, however, such as the United States, the economy performed better than most expected, sparking hope that this year could be better still. And that shifted traders’ attention from demand to supply. There had been warnings about shrinking oil inventories amid the OPEC+ cuts but those got little attention until the change in economic outlook. Now, there’s suddenly concern about a deficit that even the IEA acknowledged, after a month ago confidently stating that the oil market was comfortably supplied.So now prices are on the rise again and Morgan Stanley has already forecast that Brent will hit $90 per barrel later in the year. “Every month that OPEC discipline remains in-place, Brent flat price will likely continue to catch up with where inventories and time spreads already are,” the bank said. It’s safe to say that OPEC discipline will remain in place for quite a while yet. NN:  a golden cross is a rare event. It attracts Al LOT of technical traders

Hamas official not ‘optimistic’ about ceasefire in near future

Hamas political deputy chief Khalil al-Yahya stated on Thursday that he holds a pessimistic view regarding the potential for a ceasefire agreement in the near future, claiming that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu intends to prolong the military “onslaught” in the Gaza Strip.During an interview with Iranian Press TV in Tehran, al-Yahya stressed that the military group is “ready” to show “the greatest level of flexibility” for the sake of the Palestinian people and resume negotiations on a potential ceasefire deal in the enclave. “If the talks are the way to end the war, we are ready,” the group’s political deputy chief underlined.Earlier today, a unanimous source from the Palestinian military group told the Al-Araby Al-Jadeed that Hamas has begun preparing for Israeli ground operation in Gaza’s southernmost city of Rafah.

US Says Major Israel Attack on Rafah Would Be ‘Huge Mistake’…… Israel Says It Will Invade Rafah No Matter What the US Says

(Bloomberg) — US Vice President Kamala Harris warned Israel against a major attack on the Gazan city of Rafah, where more than a million Palestinians have sought refuge as the war against Hamas continues. While broadly in line with the Biden administration’s repeated cautions to Israel, Harris’ comments on Sunday went beyond remarks by Secretary of State Antony Blinken during his trip to the region last week.“I am ruling out nothing,” Harris said to ABC when asked whether there would be consequences for Israel for a military assault on Rafah, which borders Egypt. “We have been clear in multiple conversations and in every way that any major military operation in Rafah would be a huge mistake.”

Read more: Israel Says It Will Invade Rafah No Matter What the US Says

Israel says it must send troops into Rafah because it’s the last bastion of Hamas, an Iran-backed Islamist organization. Israeli intelligence estimates there are around 5,000 to 8,000 Hamas fighters and group leaders in the city, Bloomberg has reported.

Israeli Forces Are Preparing a Push Into Rafah | More than one million people have sought refuge in the south Gaza city

Israel Says It Will Invade Rafah No Matter What the US Says

A top Israeli official said his country’s military is ultimately going to invade the southern Gaza city of Rafah and defeat Hamas “even if the entire world turns on Israel, including the United States.” “We are going to go in and finish this job, and anybody who doesn’t understand that doesn’t understand that the existential nerve of the Jews was touched” by the Oct. 7 attack when Hamas operatives killed 1,200 and abducted 250, Israeli Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer said on a US podcast posted online Thursday. A close confidant of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Dermer is headed to Washington early next week to listen to concerns from the Biden administration that such an invasion would cause many more civilian casualties at a time when famine and disease are spreading in Gaza.US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is in the region pushing for a deal between Israel and Hamas that would lead to a six-week cease-fire and an exchange of hostages for Palestinian prisoners along with a big increase in humanitarian aid to the more than 2 million Palestinians in the coastal strip.

“We’ve been very clear — President Biden’s been very clear — that a major ground operation in Rafah would be a mistake, something we can’t support,” Blinken told reporters in Cairo Thursday evening after meeting with Arab foreign ministers. “There is no place for the many civilians who are massed in Rafah to go to get out of harm’s way, and for those that inevitably remain, it would be a humanitarian disaster.”

Trump’s Net Worth Hits $6.5 Billion, Making Him One of World’s 500 Richest People

Donald Trump’s business empire was supposed to be in peril like never before on Monday. Instead, it turned into the single-greatest day on record for the former president’s wealth. Facing a deadline to post a bond of more than $500 million in a New York fraud lawsuit, a state appeals court tossed him a lifeline, slashing the amount he’d have to post to $175 million — an amount he says he’ll cover. Around the same time, his social media company Trump Media & Technology Group wrapped up a 29-month-long merger process, meaning shares worth billions of dollars on paper are now officially Trump’s. All told, his net worth increased by more than $4 billion. That means for the first time ever, Trump joined the ranks of the world’s wealthiest 500 people on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, with a fortune of $6.5 billion. “We have a great company and are incredibly honored,” Eric Trump, executive vice president of the Trump Organization, said in a statement. Trump, 77, has been rich all his life. But his fortune, which previously peaked at $3.1 billion, has largely consisted of real estate properties, the value of which he and his company were found to have inflated by billions of dollars a year for more than a decade to get better terms on loans. His illiquid wealth created a potential financial crisis ahead of Monday’s deadline to either pay his $454 million verdict or post a bond for 120% of the judgment while he appeals it. New York Attorney General Letitia James signaled she was ready to seize assets if Trump didn’t comply. NN:  No more problems paying fines, lawyers, campaign expenses or hookers 

Israel reportedly to begin Rafah op in mid-April, early May

Israel is planning to launch a ground military operation in the Gazan city of Rafah by the middle of April or early May at the latest, the Al-Akhbar newspaper reported on Wednesday, citing Egyptian sources familiar with the matter. The sources said Israel made the final decision after its latest round of negotiations with Hamas did not succeed. The ground operation would last four to eight weeks and be preceded by the evacuation of 1.5 million civilians currently displaced in Rafah. According to the sources, Egypt is concerned that a ground operation in Rafah would not mean just an escalation of the conflict in the Gaza Strip but that it would affect the entire region.  NN: When this happens the liberal lefties WOK munchkens will scream like a raped ape. Get over it. You start a war shit gets bombed and people get killed

Golden Cross Could Be A Real Blessing $$$$$$$

Their must be a thousand videos on Golden Crosses.. They really suck the traders in. We will cash out of our long positions as they cash in. And roll into a bearish short.

A “golden cross” occurres   when the 50 day, 100 day and 200 day moving averages  cross.  This type of activity indicates that a strong bullish momentum is about to unfold, which could lead to further gains for crude oil.

It doesn’t happen often, but when it does the markets buzz. As long-term indicators carry more weight, a golden cross scenario suggests that a bull market could be on the horizon. This is usually reinforced by high trading volumes which means crude oil could be about to boom.

The fundamentals are being  driven by  2 wars and OPEC+ production cuts. THE  technical backdrop is extremely bullish with crude’s moving averages  forming a golden cross. That’s when an asset’s 50-day moving average exceeds the corresponding 100- day and 200-day figure. Its last formation for the generic oil contract  saw WTI surge by more than $25 a barrel. From its June low of  $65 to above $90 in September.

This latest Golden Cross happened as U.S. crude futures have risen from around $70 a barrel at the start of the year to above $83. It’s left the 50-day, 100- day and 200-day  moving average for WTI oil  looking to move above the $90 September high. Projecting oil over $95  bases WTI. That puts BRENT over $98.  It’s a classic Golden Cross that often signals a continued bullish trend to new highs. Usually followed by a crash.

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Casing In On The Golden Cross

 

 

Traders Eye OPEC+ Cutbacks and Geopolitics

OPEC+ set to affirm its policy of production cuts amid tensions in the Middle East and Russia. West Texas Intermediate settled above $81, while global benchmark Brent closed above $86 a barrel. OPEC+ delegates aren’t seeing a need to change supply policy at a review meeting next week, according to several national officials, with quotas in place until June proving effective. The Houthis renewed threats against Saudi Arabia if it supported US strikes. Signs of a shift in monetary policy have also aided sentiment. The Federal Reserve has signaled a willingness to cut interest rates later this year, buoying appetite for risk assets, including oil. Crude has risen about 14% this quarter, breaking out of a tight range that held for the first two months of the year. Attacks by Ukraine on Russian refineries have aided gains, together with signs of strength in some product markets including gasoline. The positive overall market outlook has spurred hedge funds to increase their bullish bets on Brent.