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S. Korea’s COVID-related deaths touch 3-month high

S. Korea’s New COVID-19 Cases Soar to 4-month High of Over 180,000

SEOUL, Aug. 17 (Korea Bizwire) — South Korea’s new COVID-19 cases jumped to a four-month high on Wednesday following the extended weekend amid the continued spread of a highly contagious omicron subvariant. The country added 180,803 new COVID-19 infections, including 567 cases from overseas, bringing the total caseload to 21,682,816, according to the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency (KDCA). It is the highest figure since April 13, when the daily tally came to 195,387 amid the worst virus wave. Wednesday’s figure also more than doubled from the previous day’s 84,128 cases. It is also about 20 percent larger than the 151,792 infections logged a week earlier. “An increase in travelers in the summer vacation season and the recent extended Liberation Day holiday are expected to have an impact (on infection tallies) this week,” Kim Sung-ho, the head of the interior ministry’s disaster management office, said during a government COVID-19 response meeting. New daily infections had hovered below the 100,000 level on Monday and Tuesday for the first time in a week due mainly to fewer tests over the extended weekend that included the Aug. 15 Liberation Day. On Wednesday, the country also reported 42 more COVID-19 deaths, bringing the total to 25,752, the KDCA said. The fatality rate stood at 0.12 percent. The number of critically ill patients came to 469, down from the previous day’s 563 cases, according to the KDCA. The number of imported cases has also risen markedly recently. Wednesday’s figure is the fifth largest daily tally ever, the KDCA said.

A citizen undergoes a COVID-19 test at a makeshift testing station in Seoul on Aug. 17, 2022. (Yonhap)

South Korea has seen another virus wave since July driven by the fast spread of the omicron subvariant BA.5 and the government’s lifting of virus curbs.

BA.5 accounted for 87.9 percent of total infections last week, up 11.6 percentage points from a week earlier, the KDCA said. It became the dominant variant in South Korea in the fourth week of July. The KDC has said that new infections are expected to peak at around 200,000 this month before shrinking at a slower pace, though the situation could change in line with potential impacts of the summer vacation season, weather conditions, and other factors. The number of critical cases could also surge to over 900 early next month, and the daily death toll could reach as high as 140, the health authorities said. To better protect high-risk groups, the government will bring in 50,000 additional doses of MSD’s Lagevrio oral pill. So far, 100,000 doses were brought in under the contract of buying a total of 242,000 doses of the antiviral pill. In March, the authorities began administering Lagevrio for patients with underlying illnesses or symptoms that prevented them from taking Pfizer’s Paxlovid or other treatment pills, and some 40,000 doses have been administered so far. NN: Do not be lulled to sleep. Our vaccines are wearing off. Everyone has let their guard down… Little testing, no quarantining of note, no masks and no travel restrictions. And the flying disease incubators and disease spreading machines are chock full of maskless untested and unvaccinated people….  How do you think this is going to turn out,  We are courting disaster come the fall covid next wave;;;;;;;

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Hedge funds pile up $125 billion bet against the S&P 500’s big summer rally

A more than $125 billion institutional short position has been building up against the U.S. stock market, driven by hedge funds, according to BNP Paribas. Futures contract data points to a sharp increase in the amount of bets against the S&P 500 index SPX, -1.29% in recent months, even though the stock-market gauge has climbed nearly 17% from its mid-June low when it tipped into a bear market. Greg Boutle, head of U.S. equity derivatives strategy at BNP, said positioning has “remained defensive,” in a client note this week, which highlighted the growing short position (see chart) against the stock market.

Institutional money is lining up to short the stock market

BNP Paribas, Bloomberg, CFTC data

Boutle said that despite signs of U.S. inflation cooling from 40-year highs, it likely would take “a larger and more persistent improvement in the macro outlook, to drive a larger scale reallocation of institutional money back into equities.” The S&P 500’s sharp climb has hit resistance this week as the benchmark approached its key 200-day moving average. “At this point, after the 17% rally, all the energy is gone to push higher.”  (NN bit:  Please recall  a rare Sunday night streaming TV show. I declared in the NASDAQ 100 a top at 13700,  with great confidence i recommended everyone into the pool) said Keith Lerner, co-chief investment officer at Truist Advisory Services, by phone. “But there could be a pain trade, if the market breaks out of short-term consolidation.” Still, any breakout higher likely would be short-lived, he said, given high stock-market valuations and expectations for further global tightening of financial conditions. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said Thursday he may support another large interest rate rise at the central bank’s Sept. 20-21 policy meeting.  More broadly, fund flows also show significant interest in “short-biased” investing in roughly the past three months, according to Refinitiv Lipper data.  As investors wrangle with questions about the durability of the U.S. economy as the Federal Reserve raises rates, billions have poured into funds (see chart) that consistently create a “net short” exposure to the overall market. July saw about $3.2 billion of inflows to Lipper dedicated short-biased funds, the largest monthly intake since April 2022 U.S. diversified equity funds returned an average of negative 14.2% on the year through Aug. 4, according to Refinitiv Lipper, but its dedicated short-biased funds were up 8.8% for the same stretch, when excluding those classified as focused on commodities. “The debate can continue whether or not we are in a recession, but what we can see is that there is both growing demand and supply for exposure betting against the overall market,” Fischer wrote, in a recent client note. NN: I am all in shorting this market. We are entering a deep dark recession/depression. And i want protection for us. The proven way i have done this over and over again is to short the coming appocolus.

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Producer prices in Germany rise 32.7% in July

German Producer Prices Post Highest Increase on Record

Germany’s producer prices rose strongly in July, driven by higher energy prices, posting the biggest increase ever recorded, the German statistics office Destatis said. Producer prices rose 37.2% on year in July, the German statistics office Destatis said Friday. This follows a 32.7% increase in June and a 33.6% rise in May. Compared with the preceding month, the producer prices index rose 5.3% in July, also the biggest month-on-month increase ever recorded. Energy prices rose 105.0% from a year earlier, Destatis said. Strong gains in the price of natural gas, up 163.8% on year, as well as a 125.4% increase in the prices of electricity, were major factors behind the increase, it said. The producer price index excluding energy rose 14.6% on year, according to Destatis. Prices of intermediate goods increased 19.1% from a year earlier. Significant price increases were recorded by metals, which were 24.1% up on July, Destatis said. Prices of nondurable consumer goods increased by 16.2% on year, prices of durable consumer goods rose 10.9% and capital-goods prices increased by 8.0%, Destatis’ data showed. NN: Holy shit batman!



Write to Maria Martinez at maria.martinez@wsj.com

















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Equity markets are too enthusiastic about upcoming Fed moves, says former KC Fed president
	


	
	

		








“We should continue to move quickly towards a level of key rates that will exert significant downward pressure on inflation,” said the chairman of the Federal Reserve of St. Louis. A US central bank (Fed) official said on Thursday that another sharp rate hike seems necessary at the September meeting, as inflation is still very high and will take time to slow.




“I’m leaning at this point, towards 75 basis points”, or three-quarters of a percentage point, as in previous meetings, mid-June and end-July, said in an interview with the Wall Street Journal the president of the regional branch of the St Louis Fed, James Bullard, known for his positions in favor of a restrictive monetary policy. “We should continue to move quickly towards a level of key rates that will exert significant downward pressure on inflation,” said the official, who is among the voters this year on the Monetary Policy Committee (FOMC), a body responsible for Fed decision. In other words, according to him, the Fed must continue, during its next meetings, to make strong increases in rates, until it reaches the range of 3.75-4.00% by the end of the year. “We have relatively good economic data, and very high inflation, so I think it would make sense to keep raising the key rate and into restrictive territory,” he said. “I don’t really see why you want to drag out interest rate hikes next year” instead of doing them in 2022, Bullard added. He stressed that he was not certain that inflation had peaked, despite the slowdown seen in July, and predicted a process of about 18 months to bring price pressures back to the Fed’s 2% target, with a trajectory probably jagged.


“The idea that inflation has peaked is hopeful, but it’s not really, statistically, in the data at this point,” said James Bullard.


He also anticipates growth in the second half, as the economy contracted in the first six months of the year, and believes the labor market will also remain robust. The minutes of the last meeting of the Fed, published on Wednesday, revealed the intention of the monetary committee to continue the rate hikes, while evoking the “risk that (the Fed) could tighten its policy more than necessary”. NN: The Fed is going to hose down this red hot economy. With further rate increases until it drives down real estate, stock market and the economy overall….. They have no choice its the only way to beat  now embedded inflated out of the system.





	


	





		

		
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Rate hikes to stop when inflation on way down – Fed’s George
	


	
	

		






 




























(Reuters) -The recent easing of U.S. financial conditions, including a surge in stock prices, may have been based on an overly optimistic sense that inflation was peaking and the pace of interest rate increases was likely to slow, Kansas City Federal Reserve President Esther George said on Thursday. In comments to a Kansas City economic group, George said the pace and ultimate level of future rate hikes remained a matter of debate. “To know where that stopping point is … we are going to have to be completely convinced that (inflation) number is coming down,” she said. George did not state a preference for whether the Fed should approve a third straight 75 basis point rate increase when policymakers meet next month, or a smaller half point increase – the two core options under consideration.


But she made clear that the drop in inflation registered in July, while good news, was not evidence the underlying problem was fixed. Much of the decline was related to energy costs, she noted, while prices for a broad set of other services and goods continued to increase.


“That is hardly comforting,” she said. And recent “abysmal” productivity numbers, which imply that workers are producing less for each dollar they are paid, could make controlling inflation that much harder, she added.




























 





	


	





		

		
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Housing market enters a recession
	


	
	

		


The housing cycle—which began its upward climb in 2011—has officially turned over. Simply put: We’ve moved into a housing recession.  Homebuilders broke ground on 982,000 single-family homes in June. That’s down 19% since February, and down 16% from the same month in 2021. While it’s hardly a “blow out,” it’s clear builders are cutting back. Historically speaking, that’s exactly what happens when a housing cycle turns over: As existing home inventory—which builders compete against—begins to spike, homebuilders start to cut back. “Peak euphoria is behind us. We are giving back some of the euphoria [home] pricing that was rolling over every housing market,” says Rick Palacios Jr., head of research at John Burns Real Estate Consulting. Existing home inventory will continue to rise, and homebuilding will continue to slow. At least that’s the view at John Burns Real Estate Consulting, which does consulting work for both builders and investors. As it does, the ongoing housing recession (i.e. a contracting housing market) could push home prices lower in bubbly regional housing markets. Indeed, many bubbly markets, Palacios says, are barreling towards price cuts in both 2023 and 2024. That includes markets like Phoenix, Nashville, West Palm Beach, Las Vegas, and Austin. In Boise, Palacios says home prices could go negative on a year-over-year basis as soon as December. “Builders are already [deciding] to not pour slabs in certain markets. Which is the technical trigger for a start for a home. In certain markets it will feel like [a housing bust],” Palacios says. Soon after mortgage rates spiked this spring, the housing market slipped into a “housing correction.” It’s easy to see how those higher rates priced out many would-be buyers. If a borrower in December took out a $500,000 mortgage at a 3.1% rate, they’d owe a monthly principal and interest payment of $2,135. If a borrower took out a $500,000 mortgage at today’s average 30-year fixed mortgage rate (5.51%), they’d get a $2,839 payment. NN: My bellwether…. I have been screaming recession Recession RECESSION……. 2 quarters of negative GDP.. You cannot have a depression (already a recession)  without a stock market crash and real estate wipeput. We are well on the way to all three.

	


	





		

		
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Tightening will ‘tap breaks’ on economy – Fed’s Kashkari
	


	
	

		
This ASSHOLE 9 months ago was calling inflation temporary. Now he is talking about “tapping” the breaks…. Try brace yourself for anti lock break deployment as the economy goes through the guard rail and off a cliff……. listen for yourself!!






Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari stated on Thursday that the central bank’s continuing tightening of key interest rates will “tap breaks on the economy.”  NB: a pigs ass. Try driving the US economy into a massive inflation/depression. Answering questions at the Young Presidents Organization Gold Twin Cities luncheon, he reiterated that inflation needs to be tamed “urgently,” and that although the Fed knows how to reach its 2% target goal, he is unsure whether the central bank can achieve this without pushing the economy into a recession. Kashkari further noted that the labor supply potential “is more or less fixed” and that the focus now needs to be on getting “the demand down.” NN: their is only one way to get demand down… And that is with a full blown depression…. And they damn well know it…



	


	





		

		
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US existing home sales plunge by 5.9% in July
	


	
	

		


Sales of previously owned homes in the United States fell by 5.9% in July against the prior month, as more buyers shied away from increasing mortgage rates and soaring prices. According to data from the National Association of Realtors, total existing home sales sagged for the sixth straight month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.81M, down from 5.11M in June. Economists had predicted the figure to come in at 4.89M.


Sales were down by 20.2% compared to the same period last year, with all four major U.S. regions recording monthly declines.


The supply of homes also remained squeezed, with total housing inventory rising by 4.8% month-on-month to 1.31M units at the end of July. At the current sales pace, unsold inventory sits at a supply of 3.3 months. “The ongoing sales decline reflects the impact of the mortgage rate peak of 6% in early June,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. The average rate of a 30-year fixed loan mortgage has since retreated to around 5.4%, according to Mortgage News Daily. Yun said this may give an additional boost to home buyers’ purchasing power in the near term. However, given that the rate was at just over 2.5% this time last year, purchasers still face relatively elevated mortgage costs. Meanwhile, the median existing home price for all housing types in June was $403,800 – a surge of 10.8% against July 2021. Prices have now risen year-on-year for 125 consecutive months, the longest-running streak on record. “We’re witnessing a housing recession in terms of declining home sales and home building,” Yun said. NN: Eneryry recession in my trading life time started with and ended with real estate. And it has started… look out below!



	


	





		

		
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Biden Oil, Gas Leasing Freeze Reinstated
	


	
	

		


(Bloomberg) — President Joe Biden won temporary permission to once again pause energy leasing on federal lands and waters, after a US appeals court found a trial judge’s order against the moratorium too vague to review. The court on Wednesday threw out the judge’s nationwide injunction forcing a restart of leasing from the Gulf of Mexico to Alaska and ordered the judge to revisit the issue. In the meantime, Biden’s pause stands.


The ruling came in a dispute between the administration and 13 energy-producing states led by Louisiana that sued to force Biden to resume leasing he paused a week after taking office. After the lower court last year issued its preliminary injunction against the leasing moratorium, the government appealed.








Read Biden’s executive order on the leasing moratorium here


“We cannot reach the merits of the government’s challenge when we cannot ascertain from the record what conduct — an unwritten agency policy, a written policy outside the executive order, or the executive order itself — is enjoined,” the appeals court wrote on Wednesday.


New Climate Law


It isn’t clear what immediate effect the ruling will have. Under the just-enacted Inflation Reduction Act, which provides hundreds of billions of dollars to fight climate change, the Interior Department is required to hold two auctions of oil and gas leases in the Gulf of Mexico. The law also makes future renewable energy projects on federal lands and waters contingent on leasing. The government can issue new wind and solar rights only if it has recently sold new drilling rights too — a requirement designed to spur more fossil fuel leasing despite Biden’s campaign pledge to stop permitting such projects on public lands. “It’s unfortunate we have to continue litigating policies by Biden that cause pain for American families, especially those crushing us at the pump,” Louisiana Attorney General Jeff Landry said in an emailed statement. A spokeswoman for the Interior Department said it was reviewing the ruling, “The practical impacts” of the ruling, and even of the case’s ultimate outcome, “may be minor” given those leasing mandates, said Erik Milito, president of the National Ocean Industries Association, which represents offshore oil and wind companies. Biden issued the moratorium so officials could examine the environmental impact of the leasing.


Environmentalists have pressured the president to go further in reducing fossil fuel development on federal lands.




























Drew Caputo, vice president of litigation at the environmental advocacy group Earthjustice, called on the Interior Department to swiftly overhaul federal oil leasing. “We are in a climate emergency and cannot afford any new leasing that will further entrench the fossil fuel industry’s hold on our country’s energy future,” Caputo said. Rising energy demand and surging gasoline prices in an election year had prompted administration officials to urge oil companies to boost production from existing leases. Energy interests say the US can’t afford to curtail new development on public lands and waters, which collectively provide about a quarter of the nation’s crude oil supply. Although new offshore production can take years to bring online, oil industry executives say the new auctions are needed to replenish reserves and offset natural declines at existing wells in the Gulf. After the lower-court judge ordered the Interior Department to restart sales, environmental groups objected in a separate action. A Washington-based judge canceled the first of those auctions, for 1.7 million acres (688,000 hectares) in the Gulf, after finding the government had underestimated the climate consequences.  Biden Scraps Offshore Oil Auctions in Alaska, Gulf of Mexico The 12 other states that sued the Biden administration are. Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Georgia, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Texas, Utah and West Virginia. The case is Louisiana v. Biden, 21-30505, 5th US Circuit Court of Appeals (New Orleans). NN: I guess the Biden administration does not realize the world is in a energy crises…… To me it is unbelievable what is happening. Biden begged the Saudi’s for more oil and they flipped him the bird. He is quietly making concessions to Venezuela for more oil. And he will allow Iran to go nuke for  oil. Their is no spare capacity in OPEC, They are hell bent on sanctioning Russian oil. Alakain oil that is already plugged in to the Alaskan pipe line is ready to be sent to the continental has lost its permits.



























	


	





		

		
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US Futures Tumble as Fed Worries Outweigh Earnings
	


	
	

		










US stock-index futures fell as concerns over the Federal Reserve’s aggressive rate-hike path outweighed robust corporate earnings and China’s stimulus plans. September contracts on the S&P 500 Index slipped 0.8% after the equity benchmark posted modest gains Tuesday amid a rally in retailer stocks. Nasdaq 100 futures retreated 0.9% signaling a selloff in technology names will continue. The dollar and Treasury yields rose as investors awaited the minutes of the Fed’s last policy meeting for clues on policy makers’ sensitivity to weaker economic data. US stocks have rallied on signs of peaking inflation and an earnings-reporting season that saw four out of five companies meeting or beating estimates  .( NB: What they fo get to tell you they meet or beat significantly reduces earnings estimates  AND most warned about a slow down the rest of the year ) Yet, continuing rate hikes and the likelihood of a recession in the world’s largest economy are weighing on sentiment. Meanwhile, concern is growing that Fed rate setters will remain focused on the fight against inflation rather than supporting growth. NN: What part of the FED has a inflation fire storm on its hands. They cannot relent. I have seen them drive the economy into the ground before and the stock market have a near death experience. It will be no different this time.