US stock-index futures fell as concerns over the Federal Reserve’s aggressive rate-hike path outweighed robust corporate earnings and China’s stimulus plans. September contracts on the S&P 500 Index slipped 0.8% after the equity benchmark posted modest gains Tuesday amid a rally in retailer stocks. Nasdaq 100 futures retreated 0.9% signaling a selloff in technology names will continue. The dollar and Treasury yields rose as investors awaited the minutes of the Fed’s last policy meeting for clues on policy makers’ sensitivity to weaker economic data. US stocks have rallied on signs of peaking inflation and an earnings-reporting season that saw four out of five companies meeting or beating estimates .( NB: What they fo get to tell you they meet or beat significantly reduces earnings estimates AND most warned about a slow down the rest of the year ) Yet, continuing rate hikes and the likelihood of a recession in the world’s largest economy are weighing on sentiment. Meanwhile, concern is growing that Fed rate setters will remain focused on the fight against inflation rather than supporting growth. NN: What part of the FED has a inflation fire storm on its hands. They cannot relent. I have seen them drive the economy into the ground before and the stock market have a near death experience. It will be no different this time.
OPEC Chief Sees High Risk of Oil Squeeze Amid Bullish Demand….. US crude inventories down by 7.1 million barrels – EIA…….
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Haitham Al-Ghais says Chinese consumption fears are overdone
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Oil market could comfortably absorb extra Iranian supplies
Global oil markets face a high risk of a supply squeeze this year as demand remains resilient and spare production capacity dwindles, the new head of OPEC said.
Fears over slowing consumption in China and the wider world — which have pushed crude prices 16% lower this month — have been exaggerated, OPEC Secretary-General Haitham Al-Ghais said in an interview with Bloomberg Television.
At the same time, producers in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and beyond are running out of extra supplies they can bring to market, Al-Ghais said at OPEC’s Vienna headquarters. The Kuwaiti oil executive was appointed as the group’s top diplomat this month. “We are running on thin ice, if I may use that term, because spare capacity is becoming scarce,” Al-Ghais said. “The likelihood of a squeeze is there. International oil prices (Brent) have retreated to near $90 a barrel amid signs of a slowing economy in China — where fuel use slumped to a two-year low in July — and a lackluster holiday driving season in the US. Still, the OPEC chief remains confident that world oil demand will increase by almost 3 million barrels a day this year, bolstered by China’s return from Covid-related lockdowns. “China is still a source of phenomenal growth,” he said. “We haven’t seen China open up exactly — there’s a strict Covid Zero policy — I think that will have an impact when China gets back to full steam.” The OPEC+ alliance surprised traders earlier this month by agreeing on a token production increase of just 100,000 barrels a day, despite calls for extra supplies by US President Joe Biden, who made a landmark trip to group leader Saudi Arabia in July. The 23-nation group, an amalgam of OPEC nations and non-members, explained that it had to ration its “severely limited” reserves of output with “great caution.” OPEC and its partners hold idle capacity of roughly 2 million to 3 million barrels a day, or about 3% of world output, Al-Ghais said.
The crunch has arisen from years of underinvestment in the global oil industry, both in developing new supplies and building the refineries and other infrastructure to process them, he said.
“Chronic underinvestment for several years is really what’s taken us to where we are today,” he said.
World markets may also face strain as European Union sanctions on OPEC+ member Russia over its invasion of Ukraine come into effect in December. Despite the political turmoil, the group has shown it’s keen to preserve ties with Moscow, which Al-Ghais considers to have played a “critical role” in the stability of global markets. Oil’s losses deepened this week on signs that OPEC member Iran is close to reviving a nuclear accord that could ease US sanctions on its oil trade. Tehran could add about 1.3 million barrels a day within six months of an agreement, according to the International Energy Agency. Still, global demand remains healthy enough to absorb any additional flows from the Islamic Republic, provided they are released in a responsible and gradual fashion, according to the OPEC chief. With so much uncertainty, it’s too early to say what the OPEC+ coalition will decide when it next meets on Sept. 5, Al-Ghais said. The group, which has gathered online since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic in early 2020, aims to have an in-person gathering in Vienna in December, he said. “We’ve demonstrated time and time again in the past that we’re willing to do whatever it takes to do what the market really requires,” Al-Ghais said. NN: to think the world is surplus in oil is a fools perspective. The world is in for a decade or more of a energy supply crises.
US crude inventories down by 7.1 million barrels – EIA
Commercial crude oil inventories in the United States, which are not taking into account those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, went down by 7.1 million barrels to 425 million barrels in the week ending August 12, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported on Wednesday. US crude oil refinery inputs averaged 16.4 million barrels per day, down by 158,000 barrels per day from the average recorded the week prior. Refineries operated at 93.5% of their capacity, while gasoline production decreased, averaging 10.0 million barrels per day. Imports of crude oil into the US averaged 6.1 million barrels per day, 39,000 barrels per day fewer compared to the previous week. Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 9.2 million barrels. NN: This idea of a oil glut is plain old horsehit!!! And my bet is oil will hit new all time highs as reality sets in.
Biden Oil, Gas Leasing Freeze Reinstated
CEO Confidence Deteriorated Further in Q3
CEO confidence tumbles again, down for 5th consecutive quarter
NEW YORK, Aug. 17, 2022 /PRNewswire/ — The Conference Board Measure of CEO Confidence in collaboration with The Business Council declined for the fifth consecutive quarter in Q3 2022. The Measure now stands at 34, down from 42 in Q2. The Measure has fallen deeper into negative territory, to lows not seen since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, but consistent with prior contractionary periods. (A reading below 50 points reflects more negative than positive responses.) The Q3 survey asked CEOs to describe the economic conditions they are preparing to face over the next 12-18 months. An overwhelming majority—81%—said they were preparing for a brief and shallow recession, with limited global spillover, while only 7% said they do not expect a recession. Thus far, however, CEOs do not seem to be experiencing the recessionary conditions that typified recent contractions. In fact, three-quarters of CEOs say demand has risen or held steady over the past three months. “CEO confidence plunged further in Q3, amid continued high inflation, rapidly tightening monetary policy, and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty,” said Dana M. Peterson, Chief Economist of The Conference Board. Yet, alongside this deepening concern over the direction of the economy, business leaders continue to report conditions and intentions at their own firms that paint a more nuanced picture. In fact, three-quarters of CEOs say demand has risen or held steady over the past 3 months, while a majority said they intend to continue expanding their workforce and increasing wages.” “CEOs are now preparing for the near-inevitability of a US recession by year-end or in 2023,” said Roger W. Ferguson, Jr., Vice Chairman of The Business Council and Trustee of The Conference Board. “However, the vast majority expect the downturn to be brief and shallow—compared to just 12% expecting a deep recession, with material global spillover. Inflation remains the top challenge for CEOs, with 60% reporting that their input costs have increased or held steady over the past three months, with little expectation of easing in 2022.” Ferguson continued: “Throughout the survey, we found signs CEOs are preparing for weakening economic conditions ahead. In Q3, 50% of CEOs expect to grow their workforce over the next 12 months, down from 63% in Q2. Likewise, 82% of CEOs expect their capital spending to grow or hold steady over the next year, down from 93% in Q2. Finally, there are signs of some easing in a historically tight labor market: 44% of CEOs reported difficulties in hiring qualified people that cut across the organization (rather than concentrated in a few areas)—down considerably from 61% in Q2.”
Current Conditions, CEOs’ assessment of general economic conditions deteriorated further in Q3:
- Just 6% of CEOs reported economic conditions were better compared to six months ago, down from 14% in Q2 2022.
- 77% said conditions were worse, up from 61%.
- CEOs remained pessimistic about conditions in their own industries in Q3:
- 25% of CEOs reported that conditions in their industries were better compared to six months ago, up slightly from 24%.
- Conversely, 48% said conditions in their own industries were worse, up from 37%.
Future Conditions, CEOs’ expectations about the short-term economic outlook weakened in Q3:
- Just 7% of CEOs said they expected economic conditions to improve over the next six months, down from 19% in Q2.
- 73% expected conditions to worsen, up from 60%.
CEOs’ expectations regarding short-term prospects in their own industries declined further in Q3:
- 20% of CEOs expected conditions in their own industry to improve over the next six months, down from 28%.
- 48% expect conditions to worsen, up from 34%.
Employment, Recruiting, Wages, and Capital Spending
- Employment: 50% of CEOs expect to expand their workforce over the next 12 months, down from 63% in Q2.
- Hiring Qualified People: 73% of CEOs report some problems attracting qualified workers, down from 80% in Q2. Notably, just 44% report difficulties that cut across the organization, rather than concentrated in a few key areas—down considerably from 61% in Q2.
- Wages: 89% of CEOs expect to increase wages by 3% or more over the next year, down slightly from 91% in Q2.
- Capital Spending:82% of CEOs expect their capital budgets to increase or remain the same over the next year, versus 93% in Q2.
US Recession Outlook:The overwhelming majority of CEOs are preparing for a US recession over the next 12-18 months. However, expectations are that it will be a brief and shallow recession with limited global spillover. Conversely, less than 10% anticipate the US will not fall into recession.
Changes in Demand:More than 35% of CEOs said demand for their company’s products and/or services increased over the past 3 months, while an equal proportion said demand remained about the same. An additional 19% said demand remained on the decline.
Changes in Cost Pressures:Sixty percent of CEOs said input costs over the past 3 months remained the same or rose with no easing expected by year-end. Thirty-three percent expressed similar sentiment about cost pressures but expected some easing by year-end. Only 8% said costs eased but not significantly enough to pass along savings to customers/consumers.
Source: CEO Confidence Survey Third Quarter 2022 / The Conference Board
NN: I pay particularly close attention to this CEO confidence survey. A CEO is a spin doctor and he got the job because he is the best at it. They are paid to get a pile of shit and make it appear as gold bars. He is the cheerleader and chief. Earnings anymore are carefully crafted by legal experts and have a lot of wishful thinking. This survey is annonomis and is a chance for CEO’s to compare notes. Consumer confidence surveys are just mirroring the bullshit the simple man has absorbed… Pretty much useless. I have been a subscriber for decades and this is the best way to get the pulse of the mover and shakers who are the titans of business. These are the Indian chiefs sitting in the big tent with a head full of feathers. This is one of the most pessimistic surveys I have even seen They all are reporting to you a recession is coming and they are worried…(81%). The part where they say the recession will be shallow and a brief recession is little more the the glass is half full thinking.. It is incredible that the vast majority are predicting a recession in the first place… it is noteworthy. Its what they are not saying publicly that is very revealing.
Housing Market Continues to Slow as Recession Fears Loom
In another sign that builders are putting down their tools, housing starts — or the number of homes that began construction in a given period — declined a sharp 9.6 percent in July, with single-family homes leading the drop-off. This is the second indicator in as many days that the housing market is entering a slow period, and possibly a recession. On Monday, the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) /Wells Fargo Housing Market Index, which measures builder confidence, dropped into negative territory.
“A housing recession is underway with builder sentiment falling for eight consecutive months while the pace of single-family home building has declined for the last five months,” said Robert Dietz, chief economist for NAHB, in a statement.
Like the economy writ large, however, it’s not all bad for housing. While single-family construction fell, multifamily is ramping up. Building permits fell 1.3 percent from June but are up 1.1 percent from last year, due in large part to relative strength in multifamily housing. “The number of multifamily 5+ units currently under construction is up 24.8 percent year-over-year,” Dietz said. The growing interest in multifamily hasn’t been lost on investors. Silicon Valley venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz on Monday announced that it’s pledging $350 million to Flow. The company, which was founded by former WeWork CEO Adam Neumann, is ostensibly focused on the rental housing market — though details about its exact business model are sparse.
Another wrinkle in the downbeat outlook for housing: The situation varies significantly by geography. Housing starts were up 65.5 percent in the Northeast, but were down 33.8 percent in the Midwest and 18.7 percent in the South, according to Oxford Economics. The latter areas experienced a boom in housing demand during the pandemic but are now sliding the most. Still, despite slowing construction and falling demand, housing prices remain historically unaffordable. NAHB found that just 42.8 percent of the new and existing homes sold in the second quarter were affordable to families making the median salary of $90,000. That number was 56.9 percent in the first quarter. This loss of affordability is taking place against the backdrop of a nationwide housing shortage. One measure said the U.S. is 3.8 million homes short of meeting housing needs. This suggests that while short-term demand is falling, in large part due to higher mortgage rates, more housing is still sorely needed. Marc Andreessen highlighted the problem in his blog post announcing Andreessen Horowitz’s investment in Flow. “The demographic trends driving America’s housing market are impossible to ignore: our country is creating households faster than we’re building houses,” he wrote. “Structural shortages in available homes for sale push housing prices higher, while young people are staying single for longer and increasingly concentrating in highly desirable urban centers.” Yet builders remain wary about moving ahead with projects. The total number of housing units that were authorized by permits but have not yet begun construction jumped 5 percent to 296,000, which is a new record. This backlog does mean that housing starts could pick up in the coming months, even as permit issues slow, but it’s also possible that order cancellations will jump.
New data from Redfin shows that about 63,000 home-purchase agreements were canceled in July. That means 16 percent of all homes that were under contract that month fell through, which is the highest rate in more than two years. On one hand, this means buyers are walking away without their dream home. On the other, it could suggest that buyers have more leverage. “Homes are sitting on the market longer now, so buyers realize they have more options and more room to negotiate,” said Heather Kruayai, a Redfin real estate agent in Jacksonville, Florida, in a press release. “They’re asking for repairs, concessions and contingencies, and if sellers say no, they’re backing out and moving on because they’re confident they can find something better.”
Perhaps whatever Adam Neumann is cooking up will fit the bill. NN: i am sick and tired of hearing the spin about this great demand for housing… See it gets into the fact that want and get are two different things. So yes the surveys are correct millions of people want a house… But hold on to you poope cushion… They WANT a house for sure. But their is another part of the equation we do not want to forget. You got to have the money and income and be able to afford it BEFORE YOU GET IT NEVER MIND KEEP IT. And more and more Americans can afford the rent or a Walmart tent. As interest carry costs skyrocket and inflation makes the materials and labor to build a house more and more expensive home owner ship becomes a metarverse illusion.
WTI Crude Falls To Lowest Level Since January
Crude oil prices fell further on Tuesday, with WTI falling to its lowest benchmark price since January this year. Crude oil prices began their fall on Monday, dragged down by China’s disappointing economic data that led to China’s central bank cutting lending rates.
WTI prices fell to $86.13 per barrel by 2:24 pm ET, down $3.28, or 3.67% on the day. Brent crude fell $2.98 (-3.13%) on the day to $92.12 per barrel—the lowest price since February this year. Gasoline prices in the United States have been falling for months now led by falling crude oil prices. Today’s gasoline prices in the United States average $3.949 per gallon, according to AAA data, down from $3.956 yesterday. Over the last month, U.S. gasoline prices have fallen 60 cents. They are still 76 cents above where they were this time last year. The weight of disappointing data out of China—the world’s second-largest oil consumer and largest oil importer—was compounded on Tuesday by developments surrrounding the Iran nuclear deal. Just moments before the deadline, Iran sent its written response to the EU regarding the “final” nuclear deal text. In its letter, Iran suggested that it was closer than it had ever been to securing a deal, although there were a few sticking points—mainly that the U.S. guaranteed the deal couldn’t be changed by future U.S. Presidents. Despite the current crude oil fundamentals that suggest the market is still tight, the market fear is that Iran could unleash on the market hundreds of thousands of barrels of crude oil per day if sanctions were to be lifted. Iran has said that it could ramp up production and exports within months. NN: I believe what we are seeing is the seasonal demand drop… That occurs most years as driving season ends and heating oil season has not started yet. Refineries do not buy crude when they are shut down for seasonal maintenance and switching from making gasoline to making heating oil. I do not believe when you average out the seasonality that oil demand has peeked…… So that means i must buy oil….. If they want to gift me oil in the eighties i feel we should accommodate them…. And if they want to give me oil in the seventies i do not want to be rude so i will accept their gift…..
UK inflation jumps to record 10.1% in July
The United Kingdom’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 10.1% in July in comparison to the same period a year earlier, the report from the Office for National Statistics showed on Wednesday. The figure came in above analysts’ expectations of 9.8% and saw a rise from June’s figure of 9.4%, marking a fresh 40-year high. Month on month, consumer prices were up 0.6%. Core CPI in July jumped 6.2% year on year. The Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs (CPIH) soared 8.8% in comparison to July 2021, while the reading was 0.6% up compared to the month prior. Meanwhile, the producer input and output price rates saw annual growths of 22.6% and 17.1% in July, respectively, as food products, and metals and non-metallic minerals provided the most significant upward contributions. In comparison to June, the output data rate was up by 1.6%, and the input figure rose 0.1%. NN: THEIR IS NO DOUBT ABOUT….. IT WE ARE IN A GLOBAL HYPERINFLATION! I do not care how much smoke they blow about inflation moderating (like cancer from time to time it will go in remission) it will come back bigger and badder then ever. Here is the secret… Central Banks the world over have got to get their funds rate over the inflation rate and keep it their for 6 months to a year…..Talk about miserable chemotherapy…. If and when they accomplish this the patient will be near dead… In another words the world will be in a massive inflation/depression and the real estate and stock market crashes will have erased wealth like never seen before. And my reco is to sell real estate and short the shit out of the stock market
GOP Trump critic Liz Cheney loses primary BY A LANDSLIDE……Lesson fuck with Trump and you will pay!!
Republican Representative Liz Cheney lost the Wyoming primary, according to media projections. She conceded the race to Harriet Hageman, who was endorsed by former United States President Donald Trump. Cheney is currently the highest-profile Trump critic in the GOP, voting to impeach him following the Capitol riot. She is also one of only two Republican representatives who agreed to take part in the January 6 committee, which is investigating the Capitol incident. The daughter of former Vice President Dick Cheney, she has held Wyoming’s at-large congressional district since 2017 and was the House Republican Conference chair from 2019 to 2021. Wyoming Representative Liz Cheney stated that she could “easily” have been reelected to office but “it would have required that I go along with President Trump’s lie about the 2020 election.” She lost her primary after voting to impeach Trump and refusing his claim about voter fraud in 2020. “This primary election is over, but now the real work begins,” Cheney said. “If we do not condemn the conspiracies and the lies, if we do not hold those responsible to account, we will be excusing this conduct and it will become a feature of all elections. America will never be the same,” she warned.
NN: I guarantee you every Republican facing election is watching. King Trump love him or hate him is a power to recon with. The FBI raiding a former president over a document dispute that Trump had a license at one time to posses is not enough. I hasten to point out my old pal and nemeses Hillary had a server in her janitors closet chock full of classified documents…..SO documents among the mops or golf clubs so far has never been prosecuted. I believe that raid cemented the public’s resolve to defend Trump and he has a real shot at winning him the next prisidential elections. Trump will cement his power as King Trump if Trumrights sweep the fall elections.
Oil Drops 5% On Disappointing Economic Data From China
- July economic data soured on the back of China’s restrictive zero-Covid policy.
- China’s central bank cut lending rates on Monday.
- Crude prices crashed by more than 5% on Monday morning.
Oil prices fell sharply on Monday, dragged down by disappointing economic data from the world’s largest crude oil importer and the world’s second-largest crude oil consumer. The price of WTI and Brent crude fell by more than 5% as China’s central bank cut lending rates to light a fire under demand, as its July economic data soured on the back of China’s restrictive zero-Covid policy. Further dragging down China’s July economic data is its property crisis, which saw property investments fall by 12.3% in July—the fastest rate this year. Both the disappointing economic data and the central bank rate cut came as a surprise to the market. Chinese policymakers now expect China to miss its targeted economic growth rate of 5-5.5% in the second half of the year.
The July data surprise (NB: I was not surprised and you weren’t either since we have predicting $88 oil or lower for weeks, the temporary bottom has not been out in yet) sent WTI crashing to $87.22 per barrel, a $4.87 (-5.29%) on the day. Brent crude fell to $93.23 per barrel, a loss of $4.92 (–5.01%) on the day. China’s oil refinery data was also a disappointment, with its refinery output falling to 12.53 million bpd—the lowest level since March 2020 and 8.8% lower than processing rates in July 2021 due to unplanned shutdowns at state-run refineries such as Sinopec and PetroChina and shrinking refining margins. Also in the mix is a new round of tax probes that the Chinese government is prepared to launch on private teapot refiners—another potential trigger for refinery slowdowns. Teapots account for one-fifth of China’s crude oil imports. China imports more than half of the oil it consumes, mainly from Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, and Oman. The Iran factor also played into oil prices on Monday, with Iran suggesting that it could find a way to agree on a nuclear deal “in the near future” if the U.S. would consider its “red lines”. A finalized nuclear deal could send more oil barrels into the market. NN: The oil/energy crises is far from over. When and IF Iranaian oil comes to market it will take them years to ramp up. When and IF they get tofull production it will not make up the growing oil deificte. Reality is world energy consumption exceedes capicity and will for years into the future. The inconvienent ruth is the world has underinvested in oil and refinery capacity. It will takes years to correct this mistake. Today on Iranian hysteria oil hit a low of $86.80 a barrel. As you know i want to start buying operations. The cheaper oil is when we start the better….
Wells Fargo Plans to Shrink Its Vast US Mortgage Empire
Wells Fargo & Co. is planning to reduce its vast mortgage empire, which once produced out one of every three home loans in the US
Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC) is planning to dramatically reduce the size of its mortgage lending business, Bloomberg reported Monday, shedding its commitment to be No. 1 in the business x years after Charlie Scharf took over as CEO and as the bank tries to get into regulators’ good graces. The effort is likely to begin with severing ties to outside mortgage firms that produced about a third of its $205B in new home loans last year, Bloomberg said, citing people familiar with the business. With the change, Wells Fargo (WFC) is likely to focus on lending to existing customers or in places where it’s already present. The shift is likely to include paring or potentially stopping so-called correspondent mortgage lending, a business in which Wells Fargo (WFC) provides funding for loans that are arranged by outsiders, the people told Bloomberg. The mortgage business is already suffering from lower volumes as interest rates increase. During such downturns, staffing in the mortgage business normally are cut. With the change in focus, Wells Fargo (WFC) will make deeper cuts, Bloomberg said. NN: When the big dicks flee the whore house their must be a monkeypox epidemic….
The Housing Market Has Led Us Into Every Recession Since WWII……. US Homebuilder Confidence Hits Worst Slump Since 2007 Collapse
https://youtu.be/AIfKJAm2Fmo
Jerry Howard, National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) CEO, has plenty of experience in the housing industry. Prior to joining NAHB, Jerry served as the Chief Lobbyist for the National Council of State Housing Agencies. For over a quarter of a century, Jerry has been analyzing the housing market. In a interview with Bloomberg, Jerry shared with viewers a less-than-sunny perspective. He explained,.” “It looks like we’re heading into a housing recession, and if that is indeed the case, it doesn’t bode well for the economy as a whole. A damning quote for sure, but it didn’t stop there. Howard continued, “We’re getting more and more pessimistic.” The sentiments shared concerns that have echoed recently. Elon Musk said that a recession was inevitable not too long ago. Consumers have also been warned of an everything recession by George Noble. Howard continued, “At the same time we’re seeing inflation on mortgage rates and interest, we’re seeing increases in construction costs that are throwing the market off.” Howard provided a capstone to the topic by lamenting past economic patterns, “Historically, housing has led us into every recession since WWII, but, it’s also led us OUT of every recession since WWII. Right now with the supply shortage we have…costs of construction and costs of loans, I don’t know that we’d be able to lead us out of a recession. I think this is a potentially dangerous situation.” NN: If you thing the 2007/2008 housing wipeout was bad… You have not seen shit!! this coming global housing wipe out will be of biblical proportions. From Beijing, to Bombay to Boston houses will be abandoned in mass…. If fact Wells Fargo announced it is getting out of the home mortgage business. And it has been the biggest originator of home mortgages in the US till now
US Homebuilder Confidence Hits Worst Slump Since 2007 Collapse
The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index fell 6 points to 49 this month, the eighth consecutive monthly decline and the lowest reading outside of the pandemic era since 2014, a survey released on Monday showed. A reading under 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as poor than good. According to the NAHB, rising construction costs and high mortgage rates weighed on sentiment. The Fed’s increasingly aggressive fight to quash high inflation by lifting borrowing costs has already begun to be felt in the housing sector, which is highly sensitive to interest rates. The current sales of single-family homes component fell to 57 from 64 and the gauge of single-family sales expectations for the next six months fell to 47 from 49, while the prospective buyer traffic index declined to 32 from 37. NN: when the people in the business run for the fire exit you should take note…. Housing crash coming/