Alphabet Inc. reported on Tuesday that its diluted earnings per share (EPS) for the second quarter of fiscal 2022 stood at $1.21, a figure 11% lower compared to the same period a year ago. Revenues in the second trimester jumped 13% year over year to $69.7 billion, while net income came in at $16 billion after falling 14% from the second three-month period in 2021. Operating income went up 0.50% and reached $19.45 billion. “In the second quarter our performance was driven by Search and Cloud. The investments we’ve made over the years in AI and computing are helping to make our services particularly valuable for consumers, and highly effective for businesses of all sizes. As we sharpen our focus, we’ll continue to invest responsibly in deep computer science for the long-term,” Alphabet and Google CEO Sundar Pichai said in the press release.
US consumer confidence falls for third consecutive month as recession fears loom
US consumer confidence fell for the third month in a row in July as Americans continue to feel the pinch of inflation and worry about the spectre of a possible recession. The drop in the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index in July followed a larger decline in June.
The Index now stands at 95.7, down 2.7 points from 98.4 in June. This is its weakest since February 2021.
The Present Situation Index — based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labour market conditions — fell to 141.3 from 147.2 last month. The Expectations Index — based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labour market conditions — ticked down to 65.3 from 65.8. American consumers are feeling especially gloomy as high inflation has blunted their purchasing power and there is increasing talk of the possibility that the US will fall into a recession. “As the Fed raises interest rates to rein in inflation, purchasing intentions for cars, homes, and major appliances all pulled back further in July,” she adds. “Looking ahead, inflation and additional rate hikes are likely to continue posing strong headwinds for consumer spending and economic growth over the next six months.”
Retailers are already sounding the alarm, with Walmart on Monday cutting its quarterly and full-year profit guidance, saying inflation is causing shoppers to spend more on necessities such as food and less on clothing and electronics.
Overall though, the economy is sending mixed signals. On one hand, growth appears to be sputtering, home sales are falling, and economists warn of a potential recession ahead. But on the other hand, consumers are still spending, businesses keep posting profits, and the economy keeps adding hundreds of thousands of jobs each month. In the midst of it all, prices have accelerated to four-decade highs, and the Federal Reserve is desperately trying to douse the inflationary flames with higher interest rates. That’s making borrowing more expensive for households and businesses. The Fed has to a difficult path to tread, hoping to slow the economy enough to curb inflation, but without causing a recession. Many economists doubt that such a “soft landing” is possible. Both policymakers and economists are in uncharted territory having no experience in analysing the economic damage from a global pandemic and Russia’s war in Ukraine. NN: The spin Mysters of Wall Street are in overdrive. Anyway you slice and dice it…. we are in a disaster de Jure….And the FED is not swayed by all this cries of pain from the streer…. with inflation running 400% over plan they have little choice
COVID death rate now ten times worse than original strain of the virus….. bark Bark BARK
https://youtu.be/oWeBawdOUQM
We’re being warned about a dramatic increase in the COVID death rate; now ten times worse than it was with the original strain. We’ve almost hit one million new cases in the past month as the burden on the health system takes its toll.
We’re being warned about a dramatic increase in the covid death rate; now ten times worse than it was with the original strain. We’ve almost hit one million new cases in the past month as the burden on the health system takes its toll.
Yes, another omicron subvariant — BA.5 — is now dominant among coronavirus cases reported in the U.S. But is BA.5 the “worst” version of COVID-19 to date? One scientist, Dr. Eric Topol, founder and director of Scripps Research Translational Institute, described it as such in a report about the subvariant’s “takeover” in late June.
“This version of the virus has caused a lot of trouble, more than other Omicron subvariants,” Topol wrote in an updated report on BA.5 on July 10.
The subvariant makes up more than 53% of COVID-19 cases in the country as of July 2, according to Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data estimates. It has surpassed other omicron subvariants, including “stealth omicron,” or BA.2, which ruled cases in the spring.
BA.5’s ‘immune escape’
The subvariant was characterized as “a whole different animal” by UC Davis Health because it is “most easily transmissible” and has a capacity to “evade previous immunity from COVID infection and vaccination.”
It was found that BA.5 and another newer omicron subvariant, BA.4, were four times more resistant to antibody protection offered by COVID-19 vaccines compared to BA.2, according to research published July 5 in the journal Nature.
While BA.5 makes up more than half of cases in the U.S., BA.4 was estimated to make up roughly 16% as of July 2, CDC data shows.
In Topol’s report, he wrote that BA.5 and BA.4 are the “most immune-evasive variants,” based on recent studies, but BA.5 is the most transmissible of the omicron lineage. He said BA.5 “takes immune escape, already extensive, to the next level, and, as a function of that, enhanced transmissibility, well beyond Omicron (BA.1) and other Omicron family variants that we’ve seen (including BA.1.1, BA.2, BA.2.12.1, and BA.4).”
This was noted in a preprint study that found BA.5 has an “increased transmission potential in the community,” according to the work published July 10 to MedRxiv involving researchers from the Kirby Institute in Australia. Dr. Nicole Van Groningen, of Cedars-Sinai Medical Center in Los Angeles, told KTLA that BA.5 “tends to have this capacity for reinfection” and this creates concerns about “increasing cases this summer.” Likely BA.5 and BA.4 reinfections after four weeks of an initial COVID-19 infection have been observed by Western Australia chief health officer Dr. Andrew Robertson, Business Insider reported. Dr. Peter Chin-Hong, of the University of California, San Francisco, told The New York Times that those infected with BA.5 or BA.4 are “less likely to lose their senses of taste and smell, or to experience shortness of breath, as compared with those infected with Delta or other variants of the coronavirus.” Because BA.5 is a newer omicron subvariant, “there is more to learn” about it, Yale Medicine reports. A preprint study published May 26 in BioRxiv found that BA.5 and BA.4 spread more rapidly in human lung cells compared to BA.2. Additionally, it found that the newer subvariants were more severe in infected hamsters compared to BA.2. “There’s clearly more room for the virus to evolve, get more fit, gain advantages as an immune escape artist and more efficiently infect cells,” Topol wrote in his July 10 report. The spread of BA.5 comes as the majority of the U.S. lives in a location where COVID-19 community spread levels are considered medium or high as of July 11, according to the CDC. Roughly 41% of the country lives where COVID-19 levels are considered low. NN: this is your 2 minuet warning… The B5 variant is coming to get us. With no effective vaccines available yet and previous immunity worhtless we are in trouble. Hospitals are staring to fill up again and hospital staff members are getting infected in droves. Of course the politicians have not told you…yet. They will keep this quiet till after the November elections. And we will be entering lockdowns again. GOD never leaves us helpless.. their is a prescription medicine that seems to work once you test positive.. Its called Paxlovid and you can get it from a pharmacy with a prescription… Figure out how to get some nice and legal like and stock up… Talk to your medical professional . The new Maderina vaccine targeting the new variants is in the 3rd phase of clinical studies as we speak. Unfortunately since the goveremnt cut vaccine appropriations it will come to market very late. Many many people will die because of government incompetence. Make sure you are not one of them!
Record number of COVID-hit Australians in hospital as Omicron surges
SYDNEY, July 16 (Reuters) – Australia will reinstate support payments for casual workers who have to quarantine due to COVID-19, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said on Saturday, as a fresh wave of Omicron-driven infections sweeps the country. Australia is battling a major virus outbreak driven by the highly transmissible new Omicron subvariants, BA.4 and BA.5, with authorities warning it could lead to more people ending up in hospitals and further straining the health system. “I want to make sure that people aren’t left behind, that vulnerable people are looked after,” Albanese told reporters after a snap meeting with state leaders. “No one (should be) faced with the unenviable choice of not being able to isolate properly without losing an income and without being put in a situation that is very difficult.” Albanese said the leave payments, that ended on June 30 and entitled workers to get up to A$750 ($510) for each seven-day quarantine period, will be restored and extended until Sept. 30. NN: their back. And it will be much worse this time
Ukraine says Russia increased gas pipeline pressure without prior notice
July 26 (Reuters) – Russian gas giant Gazprom (GAZP.MM) has sharply increased pressure in the pipeline that delivers Russian gas to Europe without prior notice, the Ukrainian state pipeline operator company said on Tuesday. Such pressure spikes could lead to emergencies including pipeline ruptures, and pipeline operators are obliged to inform each other about them in advance, the Ukrainian company said. Gazprom could not be immediately reached for comment. Russia has continued to pump gas through Ukraine even as the two countries are engaged in war. On Monday, Gazprom said its supply of gas to Europe through Ukraine was seen at 41.7 million cubic metres (mcm) on Monday versus 41.2 mcm a day earlier. At the same time, citing instructions from an industry watchdog, Gazprom on Monday said gas flows to Germany through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline – which bypasses Ukraine – would fall to 33 million cubic metres per day from Wednesday. That is half of the current flows, which are already only 40% of normal capacity. NN: Europeans may believe the war is in Ukraine…. Stupid war is war….. It will not be the first time Russia defeated Germany using the freezing winter weather as a weapon……
Morgan Stanley Warns Stock Bulls Deluded by ‘Wishful Thinking’
-
Fed funds rate well below inflation weakens odds of a pause
-
Bank has doubts that profit forecasts are realistic, too
The July stock-market rebound has emboldened bulls hoping prices will defy the gravity of the Federal Reserve’s escalating fight against inflation. Don’t be fooled, though, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management’s Lisa Shalett said: It’s just another false dawn. The nearly 5% gain in the S&P 500 Index this month has been supported by speculation that inflation is peaking and the job market is cooling. If so, the theory goes, the Fed could have room even to start cutting interest rates early next year. But Shalett, the division’s chief investment officer, said that “while this theory may be directionally correct, stock market pricing seems premature.” In the past, she wrote in a note to clients Monday, the Fed hasn’t stopped tightening monetary policy until a key measure of inflation — the core personal consumption expenditure index — is below its benchmark overnight lending rate. That’s far from the case now. Even if the Fed pushes up its target rate to 2.5% on Wednesday, as expected, it would still be significantly below the rate of inflation. That index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, was running at a 4.7% annual rate in May. “The latest bear market rally in our view is full of wishful thinking,” she wrote. “We worry that equity investors are conflating a peak in the acceleration of Fed policy with an end to Fed tightening.
History suggests inflation needs to peak before the Fed will stop tightening, but that’s not all.” There are other reasons not to think the Fed will rush to stand down. Since another inflation gauge, the consumer price index, rose 9.1% in June from a year earlier, Shalett said, it would take month-over-month reports of 0% or even outright deflation to get it below the 5% level at which the Fed could “declare victory.”
Moreover, the modest uptick in unemployment claims from historically low levels is unlikely “enough to allow the Fed to declare mission accomplished and that the equity bear market is over,” she said.
Shalett’s view adds to the growing debate on Wall Street over whether equity prices hit bottom after June’s rout plunged the S&P 500 into a bear market. Earlier Monday, Ed Yardeni said the index’s plunge to a 3,666.77 low in June likely marked the trough of the 2022 downturn. Yardeni in March 2009 correctly called the market bottom when the benchmark index reached an intraday low of 666.79 — 3,000 points below this year’s trough, in what he calls another “devilish number.” Shalett argues that not only will the Fed tightening cycle persist longer than bulls appear to anticipate, but expectations for corporate-profit growth will also likely remain too high to support even diminished valuations. “One might make the case that the positive stock market reaction to second quarter earnings misses indicates an ‘it’s all in the price’ attitude,” she wrote. “However, we doubt that even if the Fed ends its tightening campaign with a fed funds rate of 3.2% in December that next year’s earnings will deliver the 8% year-over-year growth that is currently forecast, especially if the Fed is prompted to cut rates early next year as the futures market suggests.” NN: I feel like i am back in the who farted game we played as kids. Reality is the economy is far from bottoming, the stock market has at least 30% more work on the down side. And betting against a FED, that is blinded to all other data in its war on inflation that it sparked off is far far from over, its a fools game to bet against the FED. When interest rate hit 20% on the FED funds rate in the eighties, was a life changing event for me. And the earth is moving under my feet once again. DO NOT UNDERESTIMATE THE POWER OF CENTRAL BANKS. NOR THE FACT THEY ARE DEMON POSSESSED IN THEIR WAR AGAINST INFLATION!!
Walmart cuts profit outlook for fiscal year 2023
Walmart Inc. announced on Monday that it revised down its profit projections for the second quarter of fiscal 2023, as well as for the full fiscal year 2023. “The increasing levels of food and fuel inflation are affecting how customers spend, and while we’ve made good progress clearing hardline categories, apparel in Walmart U.S. is requiring more markdown dollars. We’re now anticipating more pressure on general merchandise in the back half; however, we’re encouraged by the start we’re seeing on school supplies in Walmart U.S,” company President and CEO Doug McMillon noted in a press release. Walmart shares dropped over 8% in after-hours trade following the announcement.
wall mart Corportae Statement
Based on the current environment and the company’s outlook for the remainder of the year, it is providing the following updates to its guidance.
- Consolidated net sales growth for the second quarter and full year is expected to be about 7.5% and 4.5%, respectively. Excluding divestitures1, consolidated net sales growth for the full year is expected to be about 5.5%.
- Net sales include a headwind from currency of about $1 billion in the second quarter. Based on current exchange rates, the company expects a $1.8 billion headwind in the second half of the year.
- The company maintains its expectations for Walmart U.S. comp sales growth, excluding fuel, of about 3% in the back half of the year.
- Operating income for the second-quarter and full-year2,3 is expected to decline 13 to 14% and 11 to 13%, respectively. Excluding divestitures1, operating income for the full year2 is expected to decline 10 to 12%.
- Adjusted earnings per share4 for the second quarter and full year is expected to decline around 8 to 9% and 11 to 13%, respectively. Excluding divestitures1, adjusted earnings per share4 for the full year is expected to decline 10 to 12%.
The company’s updated guidance includes the effects of the following discrete items in the second quarter:
- Proceeds from an insurance settlement for Walmart Chile, which positively affects operating income by $173 million and adjusted earnings per share by $0.05
- Proceeds from a special dividend received by the company related to its equity investment in JD.com, which positively affects other gains and losses by $182 million and adjusted earnings per share by $0.05
- The company will provide further details on business performance and its outlook for the year when it reports second-quarter results on Aug. 16, 2022.
NN: This is called a AWH SHIT!!
Fed will cause ‘acute damage to growth’ in its inflation battle before pivoting, warns BlackRock
‘We see more volatility ahead until central banks take sides in the stark trade-off between growth and inflation they are facing,’ says BlackRock
The market’s view of interest rate hikes faces more volatility as long as central banks think they can tame high inflation without “crushing growth,” according to BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager. “We see more volatility ahead until central banks take sides in the stark trade-off between growth and inflation they are facing,” said strategists at BlackRock Investment Institute in a note Monday. “We think the Fed will overtighten rates and cause acute damage to growth before pivoting.” The Federal Reserve will kick off its two-day policy meeting on July 26, with many investors expecting it to conclude with another large interest-rate hike in an effort to cool the hottest inflation in four decades. “The Fed is set to raise rates by an additional 0.75% or more this week as it scrambles to raise the fed funds rate into restrictive territory to rein in inflation,” the BlackRock strategists said. A hike of three-quarters of a percentage point would take the fed funds rate to a target range of 2.25% to 2.5%. The market’s expectations for future policy rates of the Fed and European Central Bank have “swung up and down in the past year,” according to a chart in their note that cites Refinitiv data. The solid lines show “market expectations for 1-year rates in one year’s time based on interest rate swaps.”
“Market pricing for the fed funds rate jumped from near zero to almost 4% in June,” the strategists said. “That epic move was followed by a one percentage point drop in just a month’s time.”
Meanwhile, the Fed’s forecasts suggest it believes it can bring soaring inflation back to its 2% target without damaging growth. NB: hahahahahahahahHAHAHAHHHHHAAAAAAAAH
“Central banks think they can curb inflation and cause only a mild slowdown, whereas this is unlikely in reality, in our view,” the strategists wrote. They have been “ignoring the sharp trade-off they are facing: crush growth or live with some inflation.” In BlackRock’s view, a “soft landing” is unlikely and the Fed will pivot next year once the economic impact of its rate hikes becomes clear, according to their note. “The market agrees,” the strategists said. “Rate projections now show the Fed cutting rates in 2023. That’s consistent with our view.” The U.S. stock market was trading mixed early afternoon Monday as investors look ahead to the Fed meeting and a wave of company earnings reports this week. NN: of course the US is in a recession…… Soon it will be called a depression… Of course Janet baby sweetheart treasury liar in chief will deny it…….
The Federal Reserve will snuff out a stock-market bounce
A summer rebound is stirring hopes the bear market in U.S. stocks has seen its lows, but a meeting of Federal Reserve policy makers this coming week might test the nerves of would-be bulls. “I expect we will continue to see market volatility until investors have seen more convincing evidence that this period of Fed hawkishness is behind us, and I do not expect that to be the message” when central bankers conclude a two-day meeting on July 27, said Lauren Goodwin, economist and portfolio strategist at New York Life Investments, in a phone interview. Disappointing results from social-media platform Snap Inc. SNAP, -39.08% trimmed a weekly rise in stocks on Friday, The bounce last week lifted the indexes off 2022 lows after the S&P 500 sank to a finish of 3,666.67 on June 16.The rebound has been fueled in part by a dynamic that’s seen investors treat bad news on the economic front as good news for stocks, said James Reilly, an economist at Capital Economics, in a Friday note. That may sound strange, but it likely reflects, in part, a view among investors that weaker economic data will lead the Fed to raise interest rates less than previously thought, Reilly wrote.
Market expectations are for the Fed to deliver a 75 basis point interest rate increase on Wednesday, matching the increase seen in June, which was the largest since 2002. The U.S. services purchasing managers index fell to a 26-month low of 47 in July from 51.6 in the prior month, based on a “flash” survey from S&P Global Market Intelligence. A reading of less than 50 signals a contraction in activity. On Thursday, weekly jobless claims rose to the highest level since November but remained historically low, the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index unexpectedly fell deeper into negative territory, and the Conference Board said its leading economic index shows that a U.S. recession around the end of the year and early next is now likely. U.S. economic data due later this week include a first estimate of second-quarter gross domestic product, that’s expected to show a second straight contraction. While such an outcome is often described as a technical recession, a still strong labor market and other factors are seen making it unlikely the National Bureau of Economic Research, the official arbiter of the business cycle, will declare one.
Reilly said he doubts slowing activity will slow the Fed’s roll.
“Our central forecast is that U.S. economic growth will remain weak, but not so weak as to deter the Fed from hiking aggressively over the rest of this year. Such an outcome would probably mean rising discount rates and disappointing growth in corporate profits, which would be a fairly toxic combination for equity prices,” he wrote. Many Fed watchers, including some ex-policy makers, see a Fed intent on convincing market participants of its desire to snuff out inflation.
Former Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker on Friday said policy makers would need to keep raising interest rates even if there is a recession. “To let your foot up off the brake before inflation has come down” is just a “recipe for another recession down the road,” Lacker said,
Even if the economy slowed fast enough to cause Fed policy makers to back off, it probably wouldn’t be great news for equities, Reilly argued. That’s because corporate earnings would weaken further than the firm already expects, he said. It’s also unlikely that the support equities have seen as expectations for the fed-funds rate have moderated would continue in a severe slowdown, with history showing that valuations have tended to fall during such periods as appetite for risk deteriorated. Markets have been dominated by worries over red-hot inflation and the threat of recession, so a “somewhat more sanguine” read from companies so far was a dose of good news, Goodwin said. Indeed, investors have seemed to cycle between fears over inflation and recession, market watchers said. Red-hot inflation was the dominant worry as stocks tumbled and Treasury yields soared in the first half of 2022. More recently, market action indicates investors have focused more on the prospect of recession as the Fed aggressively tightens policy. Goodwin said inflation will remain a primary consideration when it comes to portfolio positioning because recession-resilient assets, such as cash, Treasurys and high-grade corporate bonds that worked in the last cycle can create a significant drag on wealth creation. NN: Our buddies that run the wall street conspiracy are hurting. Losses are significant and they are in trouble. So they have a solution… Its right out of the fuck your client playbook. Namely they are spinning FED tightening is coming to a end and the inflation fears are overblown. If you follow THEIR logic its time to be a buyer of beaten down “bargain” stocks. Hence the bear market rally back they are trying to get going. In essence they are going to throw their clients under the bus….. I am a seller here and now….
Fed to Inflict More Pain on Economy as It Readies Big Rate Hike
-
Recession seen as increasingly likely as Fed fights inflation
-
US inflation ‘entrenched and spreading,’ ex-Fed official says
The Federal Reserve will probably have to inflict much more pain on the economy to get inflation under control. Growth is already slowing in response to the Fed’s repeated interest rate increases, with the housing market softening, technology companies curbing hiring and unemployment claims edging up. But with inflation proving persistent at a four-decade high, a growing number of analysts say it will take a recession — and markedly higher joblessness — to ease price pressures significantly. A Bloomberg survey of economists this month put the probability of a downturn over the next 12 months at 47.5%, up from 30% in June.
“We have to curb things domestically to help us get where we want to go on inflation,” said Bank of America chief US economist Michael Gapen, who’s forecast a mild recession starting in the second half of 2022. After raising rates in June by the most since 1994, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and his colleagues are expected to approve another 75 basis-point hike this week and signal their intention to keep moving higher in the months ahead. Powell has said that failing to restore price stability would be a “bigger mistake” than pushing the US into a recession. Fed officials though continue to maintain that they can avoid a recession and execute a soft landing of the economy. They argue that the economy has underlying strengths and have voiced hopes that inflation could ease as quickly as it escalated. NB: HAHAHAHAHAHAHAH Inflation — as measured by the Fed’s favorite gauge, the personal consumption expenditures price index — was 6.3% in May, well above the central bank’s 2% target.
“The chance of a downturn in the next 12 months has risen to 38%, significantly higher than zero when we ran the model a month ago. The model sees a 100% probability of recession in the next 24 months.”
— Eliza Winger, Anna Wong and Yelena Shulyatyeva (economists)
The more popular consumer price index is running hotter: It rose 9.1% in June from a year earlier. Three-quarters of the goods and services in the CPI basket increased at an annualized rate in excess of 4% in June from May. NN: The US economy is already in a recession and it will continue to get worse. As far as the FED… they are proven fuck ups. And they will over tighten the thumb screws…….. As i a depression….