The price of retail gasoline just dipped below $4 per gallon, AAA data showed on Thursday, but prices could rise to $5 per gallon by the end of the year, Goldman Sach’s Head of Energy Research Damien Courvalin said. “We think that’s the level at which we need to see sustained pricing to eventually solve the market deficit,” As for crude oil prices, Courvalin sees Brent climbing to $130 by the end of the year. “So we think Brent goes to $130 per barrel at the end of this year to reflect this need for sustained high prices.” “We’re still in deficit. Despite growth slowing, prices still have work to do, and that’s higher from here.” Goldman’s forecast assumes China’s demand for jet fuel and diesel only grows moderately from here until the end of 2023, pressured by its zero-Covid policy. That scenario could shift, Courvalin points out. “If we’re talking half a million barrels per day of Chinese demand going back to its prior highs, just on our pricing model, that’s $15 upside per barrel to Brent prices.” In the shorter term, Courvalin sees gasoline and diesel prices going up as refiners head into turnaround season due to the lack of a typical inventory buffer that is currently not present in the market. As of the latest EIA data, total motor gasoline inventories in the United States were 6% below the five-year average for this time of year, while distillate fuels were 24% below the five-year average. Brent crude was on the upswing on Thursday, trading $2.38 (2.44%) higher on the day at $99.78, pressing to reclaim its position above $100 per barrel—a position the international crude oil benchmark has held for most of the summer. NN: I could not agree more..
U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve Nearly Depleted……. U.S. crude in SPR hits lowest level since January 1985
The United States’ Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) now has only 453.1 million barrels in its inventory, following another significant drop in the past week that puts the emergency reserve at a low not seen in three and a half decades, Reuters reports, citing the Department of Energy. In the week ending August 19th, the SPR saw another draw of 8.1 million barrels, following smaller releases in the weeks leading up to that. In March, the Biden administration authorized the release of 1 million bpd from the SPR over a period of six months in a bid to lower oil prices and to potentially boost domestic production through contracts with companies to purchase future oil at fixed prices. The SPR releases are a response to the disruption of global oil markets caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and subsequent Western sanctions that have led to soaring oil and gas prices. The final plan called for a total release of 180 million barrels of crude from the SPR to counter the inexorable increase in oil prices amid a tight market. In addition to the lowest inventory levels in the SPR since 1985, last Wednesday, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimated that crude oil inventories (excluding the SPR) had fallen by 7.1 million barrels. For that week, U.S. crude oil inventories, excluding those in the SPR, were at only 425 million barrels, or 6% below the five year average. The largest sale from the SPR was announced on August 11, when the Department of Energy said that nine companies would buy 20 million barrels. According to the Institute of Energy Research, the SPR is expected to shrink to a 40-year low by the end of October, with inventories then at 358 million barrels, compared to 621 million barrels a year ago. NN: In March when your ha ha ha ha president ordered the release of oil from the emergency reserve US oil was trading at $85 a barrel. During the release oil surged to $120 a barrel and is currently trading at $100 a barrel. I would say its been a colossal fuck up. Please note most of the oil was bought by US certified bidders at below the spot price and sold to Europe…. Most of the oil did not make it into the US oil system. And since the release US oil inventories have FALLEN! ALL I CAN SAY IS WELL DONE ASSHOLES!
U.S. crude in SPR hits lowest level since January 1985
HOUSTON, Aug 22 (Reuters) – U.S. crude inventory in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) fell by 8.1 million barrels in the latest week to the lowest level in more than 35 years, according to data from the Department of Energy. Stockpiles in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) fell to 453.1 million barrels in the week to Aug. 19, according to the data. The 8.1 million-barrel draw was the largest since the end of April and brought inventory to the lowest level since January 1985. The large draw comes after a few weeks of smaller releases. An Energy Department spokesperson said the use of an additive to cool crude for transportation had slowed deliveries in recent weeks, adding that deliveries for August are being released according to schedule. President Joe Biden in March set a plan to release 1 million barrels per day over six months from the SPR to tackle high fuel prices, which have been contributing to soaring inflation. The SPR stocks have also declined due to sales from congressional mandates and Biden’s price initiative. The oil is sold to accredited oil companies via online auctions, and prices are set using a five-day average bracketing the date of delivery. The Energy Department has proposed to replenish the SPR by allowing it to enter contracts to purchase oil in future years at fixed, preset prices. The administration said it believes the plan would help boost domestic oil production.
US new home sales down by 12.6% in July
New home sales in the United States decreased by 12.6% in July compared to the previous month. The sales dropped by 29.6% compared to July 2021, according to the report published by the United States Census Bureau on Tuesday. On a month-to-month basis, the biggest decrease was in the Midwest with a drop of 20.6%, whereas in the South the sales reduced by 12.1%. Sales of new single-family houses were at $511,00 at a seasonally adjusted rate. The median price of new houses in July stood at $439,000, while the average sales price was $546,800 for the sold houses. The seasonally-adjusted estimate for new houses at the end of the month was $464,000. NN: Look out below… Home prices do not me squat to this crop of happy home owners…. They are monthly payment buyers which is doubling and tripling….. Tens are in department C.
Food the ultimate weapon of war
President Joe Biden’s administration is reportedly rewriting its National Security Strategy, which the White House is required to send to Congress annually, to account for the lessons of the war in Ukraine. One issue that this document will have to grapple with outside its traditional focus on statecraft and diplomacy: food. The conflict in Ukraine has put the geopolitics of food in the headlines, because Russian President Vladimir Putin has used hunger as a weapon against Kyiv and much of the world. Putin is giving an object lesson in how geopolitical insecurity can cause food insecurity — which can then make a whole raft of problems worse across the globe. A recent report by the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization makes for grim reading. The number of undernourished people in the world rose by perhaps 150 million between 2019 and 2021, due principally to the Covid-19 pandemic. In 2020, moderate or severe food insecurity increased by roughly as much as in the previous five years combined. Nearly 3.1 billion people were unable to afford a healthy diet; by some estimates, the number of people on the verge of starvation has multiplied tenfold since 2019. “This year’s report should dispel any lingering doubts that the world is moving backwards” in the fight against hunger, the FAO concluded. Now the war in Ukraine has compounded the problem. A Russian blockade has trapped Ukrainian grain that typically feeds millions of people around the world, hitting developing regions such as the Middle East and Africa particularly hard. Western sanctions have made it harder for global customers to buy Russian fertilizer. Higher costs for energy and shipping are also pushing up food prices. The World Food Program estimates that in 2022 an additional 47 million people may fall into acute food insecurity — meaning that they can’t get enough food to live a healthy, productive life. In Somalia, Yemen, Sudan and other countries, deaths due to hunger are rising as scarce aid dollars are redirected to Ukraine. Don’t count on the pain passing quickly: It could become more severe if a long conflict disrupts progressive Ukrainian harvests. Famine, the economist Amartya Sen argued, is a product of political pathologies. Make no mistake: Putin is using hunger to serve his political ends. Russia aims to isolate Ukraine from its international supporters by generating waves of global turmoil that will eventually make Kyiv’s backers tire of the fight. Russian diplomats may be pretending to participate constructively in negotiations to reopen Black Sea commerce. Yet Putin has no interest in seeing those talks succeed, because that would deprive him of one of his most potent forms of leverage. Don’t underestimate the global fallout. Intense hunger in the Middle East and North Africa could generate refugee flows that would further upset Europe’s politics and exacerbate its internal divisions. Food shortages can cause a rush into overburdened cities, create misery that extremist groups exploit, and otherwise precipitate violence and instability. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, for example, has blamed Russian policy for exacerbating the food shortages that caused the fall of Sri Lanka’s government. Putin’s strategy could eventually succeed, causing Kyiv’s less-committed supporters to call for Ukrainian concessions. It could also fail catastrophically, provoking Washington and other Western countries to break Putin’s Black Sea blockade by force. Or it could simply produce more political and strategic turbulence in a world that was hardly steady before.
US composite PMI at 27-month low in August
United States Flash PMI Composite Output Index in August stood at 45.0, staying in the contraction territory, S&P Global revealed in its report released on Tuesday. The figure was the lowest in the past 27 months. In addition, Flash US Services Business Activity Index was also at a 27-month low in August, with the reading landing at 44.1. Manufacturing PMI in the country reached 51.3, the lowest in 25 months. “August flash PMI data signalled further disconcerting signs for the health of the US private sector. Demand conditions were dampened again, sparked by the impact of interest rate hikes and strong inflationary pressures on customer spending, which weighed on activity,” Senior Economist at S&P Global Sian Jones commented, adding that “excluding the period between March and May 2020, the fall in total output was the steepest seen since the series began nearly 13 years ago.” NN: What would you call this, I call it further proof of the spreading recession.
Germany’s gas storage filled more than 80% – GIE
Gas Infrastructure Europe (GIE) said on Tuesday that Germany has so far managed to fill more than 80% of its natural gas storage capacity, surpassing its target of 75% for September this year. The target for October 1 is to fill at least 85% of its gas storage capacity, while by November 1 it aims to have its storage capacity filled up to 95%. Germany is adopting its three-stage energy plan to reduce its dependence on Russian gas. The latest news follows a recent comment by German Minister for Economy and Climate Robert Habeck, who anticipated the country will not need to use drastic economic measures to fight the situation during winter. NN: So how did Germany pull off this miracle… Buy importing the shit out of gas from the US. American gas stocks are only 50% filled in preparation for winter. 25% behind where they were this time last year…… Its going to be a long cold winter,
US natural gas rises over 2%, highest since 2008
US natural gas futures rose more than 2% on Tuesday, reaching $10 for the first time since 2008 amid continued concerns over supply disruption due to the Ukraine crisis and the global economic outlook. In its latest report, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said gas stocks were 296 billion cubic feet (bcf) lower and 367 bcf below the 5-year average of 2,886 bcf. Previously, Gazprom PJSCs announced that flow through the Nord Stream pipeline would be suspended from August 31 to September 2 due to scheduled maintenance work. This move adds pressure to European prices and threatens to create an economic disruption with world implications. US natural gas futures for delivery in September rose 2.87% to sell for $9.9630 per million British thermal units at 4:03 am ET. NN: what many people fail to grasp that all fossil fuels are joined together at the hip.. If oil and natural gas are in short supply in Europe they are in short supply in the US. The main reason is energy products are readily shipped all over the world. And supplies will gravitate to the market paying the most. Driving the prices will rise as you have seen the past year for everyone…….
Crude prices rise on supply concerns
Crude oil prices rose as concerns over supply stirred the market stability on Tuesday, following Tehran’s claims that Washington is delaying efforts to revive the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). Meanwhile, the allegations were refuted by the United States, noting that the apparent flexibility of Iran in negotiations had brought the deal closer than it had been two weeks earlier. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for settlements in October gained 1.56% going for $91.93 per barrel at 3:48 am ET. At the same time, Brent for the same month’s deliveries advanced by 1.05%, selling at $97.51 per barrel. NN: I do not care how much demand falling, Iran oil is coming to save the day… Its nothing more then blue sky before the elections they are TRYING to blow up your ass… How stupid is the public.. they get the Build Back Better lefty climate bill and name it the Inflation Fighting Act and people swallow it hook, line and sinker. I remember when Nixon tried the same shit with the Whip Inflation Now Act,…… Including a button you could wear:
It was instituted at a 5% inflation rate back then. If we use the same measurements on today’s (they changed the measurement bases to fuck social security recipients out of their inflation benefits increase they were due) inflation its over 10%…… And its getting worse..
Saudi Minister Says OPEC+ Could Cut Production At Any Time
- Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman prepared the market for a new round of production cuts.
- The Prince described the markets as being in a state of “schizophrenia”.
- Prince Abdulaziz: “Spare capacity is severely limited and the risk of severe disruptions remains high,”.
Citing “disconnect” in the oil futures market, Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman dangled the threat of potential OPEC+ production cuts that could come at any time. In an interview with Bloomberg on Monday, the Saudi energy minister said that “extreme volatility” was “undermining the market’s essential function of efficient price discovery”, in turn rendering it impossible for physical users to manage the costs of hedging or navigate the inherent risk. “This vicious circle is amplified by the flow of unsubstantiated stories about demand destruction, recurring news about the return of large volumes of supply, and ambiguity and uncertainty about the potential impacts of price caps, embargoes, and sanctions,” the Prince told Bloomberg.
Without sufficient liquidity, he said, there is a high level of disconnect, which means the “markets can’t reflect the realities of the physical fundamentals in a meaningful way…”.
The Prince described the markets as being in a state of “schizophrenia” and creating a “yo-yo” market that has lent a false sense of security. “Spare capacity is severely limited and the risk of severe disruptions remains high,” he said. The energy minister insisted that OPEC+ is “stronger and more cohesive than ever”, but also indicated that the expanded cartel could cut output at any time “and in different forms”. The minister’s comments come as the cartel begins work on a new agreement for post-2022 and the nature of the interview suggests that OPEC+ plans to view any new agreements through the prism of the current market volatility, which the Saudis appear to view as having been hijacked and disconnected from true fundamentals. The energy minister’s warning comes shortly after reports that OPEC+ members produced 2.9 million bpd below their production target in July. NN: OPEC has CUT production even after the arm bumping US president the beggar and chief went to Saudi Arabia to gravel in the sand begging for more oil….. he got less! Fucking insanity. All he has to do is issue the permits and unleash the American oil industry,,,, But the Liberal Lefties will never do that. All Europe has to do is approve the meditation gas pipeline from the proven huge natural gas reserve from Egypt to Cyprus. Like in the US the liberal lefties take the position of stopping the pipeline so Europe will be forced into alternative grenniewinnie projects that are not ready for prime time. Look at the destruction their stupid energy fantasies are causing. They really do no care….
Stocks Heading Toward Worst Selloff Since June: Markets Wrap
The Dow Jones Industrial Average index dropped over 650 points on Monday after recent remarks by Federal Reserve officials sparked concerns about the possibility that the United States economy may end up in a recession due to strong monetary tightening measures. The Dow Jones plummeted 1.90% or 640 points, pulled down by Intel, Salesforce and Disney, all of which lost over 3%. The Nasdaq 100 was 2.53% down and the S&P 500 plunged 2.10% at 2:07 pm ET. The euro was 1.07% lower against the dollar to go for 0.99325 at the same time. NN: Do not let them shit you. The US is in a embedded inflation crises. And it will drive the FED to repeatedly raise rates AND withdraw the 10 trillion dollars in stimulus it pumped into the economy. Inflation is a bubble, the stock market is a bubble, corporate debt markets are a bubble and real estate is a bubble. You can call the FED your bubble popper… They will do this kicking and screaming the whole way!