Oil Prices Crash By 11% As UAE Calls On OPEC To Open The Taps

  • UAE Ambassador to Washington says his country favours production increases and will encourage OPEC to consider higher production levels.
  • The UAE marks the first OPEC+ member to call for more production.
  • Brent crude has dropped more than $15 per barrel as traders have begun to take profits.

In a complete oil industry turnaround, The UAE’s ambassador to Washington has said in a statement to the press that they “favour production increases and will be encouraging Opec to consider higher production levels.” Yousef al-Otaiba’s statement, carried by the FT, comes as both the UAE and Saudi Arabia—two of the very few, if not the only, OPEC members that are believed to have spare capacity—have ducked calls from President Joe Biden to discuss the crisis that is brewing the oil markets after Russia invaded Ukraine, sending oil prices sky high. OPEC managed to lift its production by 560,000 bpd in February, according to a new S&P Platts survey, but President Biden has repeatedly asked OPEC to increase its production to ease prices for the American consumer. While the UAE and Saudi Arabia are the most likely candidates for having spare capacity that could be turned on on short notice, they are already producing to quota. Producing more would be a violation of the OPEC agreement—and more importantly, the OPEC+ agreement that it made with other countries, including Russia. Neither Saudi Arabia nor the UAE is likely to do anything to upset this hard-fought alliance. But that doesn’t mean that they would be opposed to getting the rest of the group on board; not because President Biden attempted to ask again, but because oil prices are calling for it. The hurdle, however, will be getting Russia—the largest non-OPEC member in the alliance—on board with this plan. “The UAE has been a reliable and responsible supplier of energy to global markets for more than 50 years and believes that stability in energy markets is critical to the global economy,” al-Otaiba added. The UAE marks the first OPEC+ member to call for more production. In the meantime, Brent prices have crashed more than $15 per barrel as Ukraine’s Zelenskiy says he’s prepared for certain ‘compromises’. NN: It looks like the top in oil has been put in. That was at $130 bases CL.

OPEC Raises Oil Production By Most In 7 Months

  • OPEC members raised their production in February by a collective 480,000 bpd.
  • Combined, OPEC+ produced 560,000 bpd more in February than it did in January.
  • The figures show that 14 members of the group underproduced their quota for the month.

OPEC+ has found itself in the crosshairs of the global oil industry with its repeated failure to produce to its increasing oil production quota. But for February, the OPEC+ group has managed to make the biggest gains in oil production in seven months, the latest S&P Global Community Insights survey showed on Wednesday. OPEC members raised their production in February by a collective 480,000 bpd, reaching 28.67 million barrels per day, while the rest of the OPEC+ group lifted its February crude oil production by 80,000 bpd, to 14.07 million bpd, the survey showed. Russia’s crude oil production accounts for the majority of the non-OPEC members’ production. Combined, OPEC+ produced 560,000 bpd more in February than it did in January, according to the survey. Still, the figures show that 14 members of the group underproduced their quota for the month. The members responsible for much of the increases are members not bound by the constraints of the production quota agreement: Iran, Libya, and Venezuela. Ironically enough, the oil industries of those three countries face significant challenges. Iran and Venezuela’s oil industry continues to be under sanctions, while Libya’s oil industry faces routine volatility as the nation struggles for stability. A 560,000 bpd increase is still not enough to offset months of the group’s underproduction. But it comes at a critical time in an oil market trying to get by without Russian crude—Russian crude that happens to be part of the OPEC+ deal. The OPEC+ group—including Russia—has also agreed to lift its March production by another 400,000 bpd, but serious questions remain about its available spare capacity. If anything has the power to lull OPEC+ out of its oil production slumber, however, it is today’s high crude oil prices. Oil prices were trading down roughly 5% on Wednesday morning, but Brent was still trading at more than $120 per barrel, up more than $5 in a week.

Germany Is Stalling EU Efforts to Broaden Russia’s SWIFT Ban

Germany has emerged as the main roadblock to broaden European Union sanctions against Russia by targeting the country’s biggest bank and its energy sector. Berlin is the leading power resisting efforts to add Sberbank PJSC to the list of Russian financial institutions cut off from SWIFT — the bank messaging system behind much of global trade — according to multiple diplomats familiar with the matter and documents seen by Bloomberg. Sberbank, which holds about half of Russian retail deposits, was excluded from the initial list of banks being removed from SWIFT as part of a decision to shield energy-related transactions, but calls to strengthen penalties from member states in central and eastern Europe have grown as Russia intensifies attacks on Ukraine. Documents show that Germany has repeatedly urged caution over the move during diplomatic meetings that have taken place in recent days, including among ministers. Chancellor Olaf Scholz has also come out publicly, calling for restraint on sanctions that could impact energy. He said this week that he opposes cutting off supplies from Russia, calling deliveries of oil and gas of “essential importance” to the European economy and making clear that continuing energy imports is a “conscious decision.”

Germany’s stance risks creating a split in a key aspect of allies’ efforts to punish the Kremlin over its war on Ukraine. President Joe Biden announced on Tuesday that the U.S. will ban imports of Russian fossil fuels including oil, in a move that was in part matched by the U.K.

After Germany’s surprise pledge to deliver weapons to Ukraine and accelerate defense spending, the country is again drawing criticism as it seeks to protect its economy, which relies on Russia for more than half of its gas supplies and more than a third of its oil. “Germany has done a heroic deed? No, you are doing too little,” Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba wrote in a commentary in the Welt newspaper on Wednesday. German officials are aware that pressure could increase to target energy supplies, but are cautious about escalating tensions at the moment and see that position supported by other member states, according to people familiar with the government’s thinking. Finance Minister Christian Lindner has said discussions on additional financial sanctions are ongoing and nothing can be ruled out. One of the EU diplomats said that other major western European governments, including Italy, would align behind the SWIFT move if there was a united position. Senior EU officials also support the measure, one of the people said. Another official said that technical work on Sberbank and SWIFT was ongoing. Gazprombank is another entity that has so far been exempt from the measure. Germany has also raised concerns over advanced proposals to restrict access to ports, arguing that the measure could hit trade in goods that haven’t been sanctioned, according to EU diplomats and one of the documents. Germany and others are also opposed to the EU following the U.S. and the U.K. in banning oil imports from Russia. European nations rely more heavily on Russian fuels than the U.S. and governments are concerned about the impact on businesses and consumers already buckling under surging prices.

Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban said he was against joining those measures. “We still need the gas and oil that comes from Russia,” he said in a video posted on Twitter by a spokesperson.

Oil continued its rally above $126 a barrel on Wednesday. Futures in New York have soared more than 35% since the invasion of Ukraine. Russia is the source of more than a quarter of Europe’s oil imports, according to the European Commission. As part of a strategy to wean the continent off Russian energy, the EU’s executive arm noted that there are more potential alternatives for oil and coal supplies than for gas, where Russia provides more than 40% of the EU’s total consumption. The situation is even more extreme for Germany. French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire noted this week that the initial decision to exclude some Russian banks from SWIFT was agreed by all 27 EU member states, taking into account varying levels of dependence on Russian gas. As the current holder of the presidency of the EU, France is acting as a mediator and hasn’t publicly taken a stance. While Sberbank and the Russian Central Bank were initially spared, “all options are on the table,” he told broadcaster BFM TV this week. “All decisions are effective if they are taken in European unity.” NN: Russian oil will not be embargoed… People who do not need the oil simply will not buy it,  like the US and Canada… The rest are begging for oil and they will buy all the oil Russia has to sell…… Eventually

U.S. sanctions on Russian oil to leave more cargoes at sea with no buyers

LONDON, March 8 (Reuters) – The U.S. ban on Russian oil and gas imports is likely to leave more cargoes at sea with no buyers, and the European Union’s decision to continue imports was unlikely to make much difference to disarray in Russian oil trade, analysts said on Tuesday. U.S. President Joe Biden on Tuesday imposed an immediate ban on Russian oil and other energy imports in retaliation for the invasion of Ukraine and Britain said it would phase out imports through the end of 2022.  The European Union did not join the ban because it is more dependent on Russian oil and gas supplies. Gas flows to Europe have so far been steady since the invasion, which Russia calls a “special military operation”, but Moscow on Monday warned that sanctions on Russian oil could prompt it to close a major gas pipeline to Europe. Existing disruption to oil trade, caused by traders steering clear of Russian supplies due to concern they may unwittingly fall foul of sanctions imposed on Russia, is likely to worsen after the U.S. ban, traders said. Buyers will also be concerned about the kind of reputational hit that Shell took at the weekend for buying Russian oil. Shell said earlier it would stop buying oil from Russia and cut links to the country entirely. Shell’s decision came days after it faced a hail of criticism for buying Russian oil at a steep discount – a transaction that two weeks ago would have been routine – underlining how Moscow’s pariah status is growing even in a market it used to dominate. Russia exports around 7 million barrels per day of crude and refined fuel, about 7% of global supply. “Redirecting trade flows takes time. It creates dislocation in the market,” said Roger Diwan, vice president of financial services at S&P Global. “The more you do have this type of rerouting and we don’t know where the volumes are going, the physical world starts to get gummed up.” The new sanctions could leave more cargoes already on the water struggling to find buyers, analysts said. As Biden announced the U.S. ban, there were 34 cargoes of Russian oil aboard 26 ships headed to the United States, most of which was fuel oil but included 3.2 million barrels of crude, according to Houston-based energy strategist Clay Seigle, citing Vortexa data. One U.S.-based trader said that when it comes to trading Russian oil, the situation was “getting untenable.” Goldman Sachs estimated that more than half of Russian oil exported from ports remained unsold. “If sustained, this would represent a 3 million bpd decline in Russian crude and petroleum product seaborne exports,” it said on Tuesday. JP Morgan estimated around 70% of Russian seaborne oil was struggling to find buyers. “Shipping disruptions in the Black Sea have brought trade deals with the country to a virtual standstill,” the bank said on Tuesday. BCA Research analysts also said some private companies were boycotting Russian energy, but it saw less of an impact so far. “Estimates vary but about 20% of Russian oil exports could be affected so far,” BCA said, adding Russian crude could still make its way to markets such as China. Kpler said there were signs a growing number of cargoes were going to sea unsold. In 2021, energy was the most imported product by the European Union from Russia, accounting for 62% of total EU imports, or the equivalent of about 99 billion euros ($108 billion). NN: their has been no supply disruptions. The issue is delivery. Their is no sanctions against the delivery of oil. Traders are waiting for the buyers to get comfortable, Vessel  charter agencies want to be sure their insurance is in place. They are waiting for the signals that their ships and cargo’s will not be seized…… This will work out in the next few months or so and oil will plunge in price…….

Saudi Arabia Reaffirms Commitment To Russia Despite War In Ukraine

  • Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has reaffirmed his country’s commitment to the OPEC+ agreement with Russia.
  • The Kingdom has not made a move to bring extra crude onto the market despite the current spike in crude prices.
  • Since 2017, Russia and Saudi Arabia have signed a string of high-profile energy deals that have pulled the Kingdom away from the U.S. sphere of influence.

Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MbS) reiterated last week his country’s “commitment to the ‘OPEC+’ agreement” – working alongside the agreement’s other key partner, Russia – despite the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine. MbS sought to couch this extraordinary re-assertion of his country’s alliance with Russia in terms of the “the kingdom’s keenness on the stability and balance of oil markets”. However, this idea was quickly undermined by the announcement of that the ongoing modest rise of 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) in collective output seen over the past few months will continue, despite the economic damage being done to many developed economies by current high oil and gas prices. In reality, what MbS’s comment underlined was the broad-based strategic political and economic shift seen by Saudi Arabia since the end of the 2014-2016 Oil Price War, away from the U.S.’s sphere of influence and towards that of China and Russia. The catalyst for this seismic shift in geopolitical alliances was the failure of the 2014-2016 Oil Price War, which was launched with the specific intention by Saudi Arabia to destroy – or at least severely disable for as many years as possible – the U.S.’s then-nascent shale oil sector, It was obvious to the Saudis at that point – and indeed to the U.S. – that the unchecked build-out of lower fixed cost oil in increasingly large volumes would mean the gradual but extreme diminution of Saudi Arabia’s power in the world and as a key player in the Middle East, given that its only true basis of power is its oil supplies. NN: talk about throwing away a win. The US became a net oil exporter….. Totally self sufficient in EVERY know energy technology. So sad in a year  the liberal lefties financed by American enemies have destroyed the edge. The attack on the Ukraine would have never happened if the west simply exploited their existing energy resources. By design the enemies of freedom using the Greeneeinniees to make the great democracies hopelessly and completely dependent on hostile Russian and Middle Easter sources for oil. These people are fascists and have nothing but destain and hatrered for democracy

Saudis, UAE decline to help US with oil

The de facto leaders of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates declined to arrange calls with President Joe Biden in recent weeks as the U.S. worked to contain a spike in oil prices driven by Russia’s war on Ukraine,

Citing U.S. and Middle Eastern officials, the Journal reported that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and the UAE’s Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed al Nahyan both declined requests to speak to Biden amid dissatisfaction in both countries over U.S. policy in the region. “There was some expectation of a phone call, but it didn’t happen,” a U.S. official told the Journal, referring to the planned discussion between the Saudi crown prince and Biden. “It was part of turning on the spigot” of Saudi oil. Biden did, however, speak with the crown prince’s father, King Salman, on Feb. 9, the Journal reported. Officials said relations had grown strained between the U.S. and the two Persian Gulf nations over the Biden administration’s lack of support for the war in Yemen and its revived negotiations on the Iran nuclear deal. Saudi officials reportedly also seek legal immunity for the Saudi crown prince, who faces multiple lawsuits in the U.S., including over the killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi in 2018. The White House has looked to Iran, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela for talks about increasing oil production to offset the effect of the Ukraine crisis on energy markets. Biden on Tuesday announced a ban on Russian oil imports, a major escalation of sanctions that will cause further price hikes for American consumers. Saudi and Emirati officials had earlier this month rejected calls to pump more oil, saying they would stick to a production agreement approved by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+), an alliance that includes Russia.The Saudi crown prince and the UAE’s Sheikh Mohammed both participated in calls with Russian President Vladimir Putin last week. NN: Biden did not contact the Saudi’s even one time since he and his merry band of clueless liberals took office. Now those chickens are coming home to roost. You need to understand the Biden’s administration overt hostility to the oil industry…. Both domestic and foreign. Despite the greennioeeewinnieee fantasy it will take a generation for non fossil fuel technology to come to fruition…… Enjoy the wait!

Gazprom’s Wingas curbs gas deals in Germany, says Handelsblatt

https://youtu.be/DN9KQwA211w

FRANKFURT (Reuters) – Wingas, a German subsidiary of Gazprom, is curbing gas deliveries in Germany by no longer offering new forward contracts, a German newspaper reported on Tuesday. Handelsblatt cited an unnamed Wingas salesperson as well as an unnamed broker for a portfolio manager that buys natural gas for German municipal utilities and energy companies. In a statement to the paper, Wingas said that the business and many other suppliers are being appropriately cautious amid current market volatility.Wingas did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment. NN: Do you not think Putin will not fuck back. Their is no replacement for Russian supplied Natural gas and crude oil in Europe……. The best thing to do right now is give Putin his pound of flesh. Then regroup and take the noose off the neck of Europe. This only works if government take the shackles off the oil industry

Poland offers its MiG-29 fleet to Ukraine

Poland has agreed to hand over all of its MIG-29 fighter jets to a US airbase “immediately and free of charge” as part of a plan to provide aircraft to the Ukrainians.

“The MIG-29 is not the best aircraft around at the moment but it’s better than nothing. “NATO has been giving arms openly to Ukraine – this is just another type of weapon.” He said that with Poland handing the jets to the US at their German base, it is like Poland saying to Russia if you want an argument about this, have it with Washington, don’t have it with us”. And he added: “The main thing is for Ukrainian pilots to find a safe way to take the aircraft into Ukraine.”

NN: This is a devolving story…… More details to follow. If their are sufficient number, based outside Ukraine, properly armed it could be a game changer

Explainer-LME nickel surge puts clearing houses in the spotlight

LONDON (Reuters) – The London Metal Exchange (LME) took emergency measures to halt trading in nickel on Tuesday as prices doubled to more than $100,000 a tonne. The surge was blamed on short-covering by one of the world’s top producers as Western sanctions squeezed Russia, a major nickel producer. Traders said some holders of nickel positions had also struggled to pay margins to their clearing house. A clearing house is a critical part of the financial market’s basic plumbing, standing between the buyer and seller to take on the risk if one side of the trade defaults. The world’s biggest clearing houses include LCH, part of the London Stock Exchange Group, ICE Clear and CME Clear, which handle trillions of dollars of transactions annually in stocks, bonds, derivatives and metals. Since the global financial crisis, regulators have forced more financial transactions to be backed by clearing houses to improve transparency, making clearers bigger in size. Critics have said it is now the clearing houses rather than banks that have become “too big to fail”, meaning that taxpayers might have bail them out if one of them went bust to avoid contagion given their myriad connections across financial markets. Clearers have had to reinforce their defences so they can cope if their two biggest members, usually banks, go bust at the same time. Regulators also monitor the models clearers use to determine how much margin – a type of insurance payment – is needed to make sure this is not pegged at too low a level just to attract business. Global regulators have conducted stress tests on the five biggest clearing houses in the world, which showed they had enough capital on hand to handle a significant increase in volatility. Collateral such as treasuries or cash must be posted by members of a clearing house as “insurance” against potential losses or default in their positions. This margin payment moves in tandem with the price of the asset or contract. The LME, which clears all trading of its metals contracts, said on Friday it was raising margin requirements for nickel contracts by 12.5% to $2,250 a tonne. The extra charge kicks in at close of business on Tuesday, March 8. LCH increased margins on some government debt during the euro zone debt crisis, triggering accusations from some governments this was aggravating the crisis. ICE said on Tuesday it was not the first time to see volatility in commodity markets and all of its margin calls have been met within an hour. In stressed markets, however, it can be difficult for some market participants to raise enough cash or collateral at short notice to meet the margin call. They can, but it is very rare given there are several safety nets to burn through before that happens. Actual failures include a clearing house in France in 1974, in Malaysia in 1983 and in Hong Kong in 1987. But when LCH unwound Lehman Brothers’ $9 trillion interest rate swaps portfolio during the global financial crisis, it used up only about a third of the margin at hand, meaning the neither LCH nor its members suffered losses from closing Lehman’s positions. Nasdaq Clearing was fined about $36 million pounds last year over the default of a Norwegian power trader Einar Aas in 2018 which showed deficiencies in the clearer’s operations. But although the margin on hand was too little at that time, the remaining loss was covered by tapping Nasdaq Clearing’s own capital and the clearers default fund, to which all members had contributed.

Biden: US bans Russian oil and gas imports…. UK to phase out Russian oil by end of 2022…. EU drafts plan to ditch Russian gas by 2030

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. President Joe Biden announced a ban on Russian oil and other energy imports on Tuesday in retaliation for the invasion of Ukraine, underscoring strong bipartisan support for a move that he acknowledged would drive up U.S. energy prices. “We’re banning all imports of Russian oil and gas energy,” Biden told reporters at the White House. “That means Russian oil will no longer be acceptable in U.S. ports and the American people will deal another powerful blow to (Russian President Vladimir) Putin’s war machine.” Oil prices jumped on the news, with Benchmark Brent crude LCOc1 for May climbing by 5.4% to $129.91 a barrel by 1345 GMT.  The United States imported more than 20.4 million barrels of crude and refined products a month on average from Russia in 2021, about 8% of U.S. liquid fuel imports, according to the Energy Information

UK to phase out Russian oil by end of 2022

British Energy Secretary Kwasi Kwarteng announced on Tuesday that the United Kingdom will phase out Russian oil and oil products by the end of the year. “This transition will give the market, businesses and supply chains more than enough time to replace Russian imports – which make up 8% of UK demand,” he explained. Kwarteng added the UK will work with companies to help them find alternative suppliers. He also stated that “while the UK is not dependent on Russian natural gas,” as it represents 4% of British supply, the government is looking into ending gas imports from Russia as well.

EU drafts plan to ditch Russian gas

According to the European Commission, gas imports from Russia can already be reduced by two thirds in the coming year. The rest will then be phased out in the coming years, according to a plan presented by the Commission on Tuesday. Brussels is mainly looking at compulsory building up of gas reserves and a faster transition to sustainable energy. Dependence on Russian gas should be reduced well before 2030, according to the European Commission. The EU wants to obtain more liquid gas (LNG) from the US, Azerbaijan and Turkey, among others, and is increasing the targets for renewable energy for 2030. For example, more biomethane and hydrogen will be imported and the use of fossil energy at home must decline more quickly.

The measures would save 155 billion cubic meters of gas by 2030, which is the same as the total volume from Russia.

Two-thirds of that could be saved within a year. Last year, 45 percent of the European gas supply consisted of Russian gas. Companies are obliged to fill gas storages In addition, it will be mandatory for companies to fill the gas storage facilities “on EU territory”.At the moment this is more on a voluntary basis. Only in Germany are companies obliged to have at least 90 percent filled in storage by December 1 each year.