Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated on Saturday that the country’s cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) will resume, but in a new form. “Our cooperation with the agency has not stopped, but will take on a new form,” Araghchi said at a meeting with foreign representatives and diplomats in Tehran, adding that the IAEA’s requests to inspect Iran’s nuclear sites will be “reviewed on a case-by-case basis … taking into account safety and security issues.” Iran previously suspended cooperation with the IAEA following the US’s attacks on its nuclear sites, citing the agency’s “double standards.”
Putin to Kim: Russia committed to all deals
Russian President Vladimir Putin voiced on Saturday his country’s commitment to all the agreements it reached with North Korea in a letter he sent to the latter nation’s Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un. Kim received the letter through Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, who is currently visiting Pyongyang. “The President sends you his warmest greetings and confirms his commitment to all agreements that have been reached. And he very much hopes for continued direct contacts with you in the very near future,” Lavrov told Kim
NN: Ukraine might be looking into the abys, Russia has a endless supply of troops to put into the mix
Yemen’s Houthi rebels release video of attack on Eternity C vessel in Red Sea
Yemen’s Houthi rebels have released dramatic footage capturing the moment they sank the Greek-owned cargo ship Magic Seas in the Red Sea, highlighting the growing threat to commercial shipping in the region. The video, published days after the attack, shows the vessel being struck by explosives, boarded by militants, and ultimately sinking following a series of coordinated assaults. Newsweek has reached out to the Pentagon for comment.
The Magic Seas attack underscores the threat posed by the Iranian-aligned Houthi militants to international shipping in the Red Sea, a critical artery of global trade. The area has become a battleground as the Houthis, citing solidarity with Palestinians, target vessels in response to Israel’s war against Hamas in Gaza.Their actions have prompted U.S. and Israeli retaliatory strikes, broadening the conflict and destabilizing maritime security across the region. Despite multinational patrols, the Red Sea remains a flashpoint where regional grievances now threaten global commerce, with rising tensions risking to draw the U.S. into a wider confrontation.
The footage, published late Tuesday by the Houthi’s media wing, depicts their June 6–7 attack on the Magic Seas. The video begins with the Houthis allegedly contacting the cargo vessel on VHF Channel 16, the international maritime distress frequency, demanding it to slow and stop. The crew refuses. Shortly after, explosions strike the starboard midsection, possibly from unmanned surface vessels (USV) used by the militants. Footage then shows four masked, armed militants running unopposed down the deck. Later, they pose with weapons atop the deckhouse in what appears to be a staged display. Drone shots reveal extensive hull damage, including multiple blackened blast marks and at least seven underwater explosions breaching the hull below the waterline. The ship eventually lists and sinks bow-first in calm seas, marking the end of the attack. Ambrey, a UK-based maritime security firm, confirmed the Magic Seas sank the day after the attack. The incident occurred roughly 51 nautical miles southwest of Hodeidah, a major Red Sea port held by the Houthis.
How Did the Attack Unfold?
According to Greek authorities, the assault involved eight speedboats carrying armed militants, four USVs, and multiple anti-ship missiles. The ship’s private security team destroyed two USVs, but two others detonated against the hull. Three missiles were launched; two made contact.
All 22 crewmembers—17 Filipinos, one Romanian, one Vietnamese, and three Sri Lankan security guards—were rescued by Yemeni Coast Guard forces.
Further Attacks
On Monday, the Houthis launched another coordinated assault, this time on the bulker Eternity C, killing three crew members and disabling the ship. According to the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations centre (UKMTO), run by the British military, “search and rescue operations commenced overnight” following the attack. So far, five crew members have been rescued, while two others remain wounded.
Brigadier General Yahya Saree, the Houthi military spokesperson: “We will not hesitate to use appropriate force to prevent any ship belonging to this company that has dealt with the Zionist enemy and violated the ban on entry to occupied Palestinian ports.”
UKMTO spokesperson: “Search and rescue operations commenced overnight following the attack on Eternity C. We continue to work with regional authorities to support maritime safety and security”
What Happens Next
Greek authorities continue to coordinate with the European Union‘s Operation ASPIDES, which escorts merchant vessels through the Red Sea. As Houthi attacks intensify, pressure is building for a broader international response. The U.S. Navy has ramped up patrols and carried out precision strikes on Houthi missile and drone sites, signaling a growing willingness to once again use force to protect global shipping. With Greece, the EU, and the U.S. now actively engaged, the Red Sea may become an increasingly militarized zone.
NN: did i not hear there is a peace deal?
Oil Rises Again on Middle East Tensions……..Never Mind Oil prices dip 2% with trade in focus
Oil gained for a second straight session as technical levels exaggerated a rally on fresh tensions in the Middle East. “Crude is treading water as short-term fundamentals remain firm, with product tightness supporting crude demand while geopolitical headlines are mixed, with some concerns about potential Houthi attacks in the Red Sea driving modest caution,” said Rebecca Babin, a senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth Group. The number of tankers passing through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait has remained low after falling sharply in late 2023 amid Houthi attacks. Elsewhere, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi wrote in the Financial Times that Iran has “good reason” to doubt further dialogue with the US. Still, the market remains largely focused on supply-and-demand dynamics rather than geopolitics. Iran’s reluctance to close the Strait of Hormuz in response to US military strikes on its nuclear facilities raised investors’ confidence that energy infrastucture won’t be used as leverage in future military standoffs. At the same time, near-term demand in the US and China remains solid, while pockets of extreme tightness are emerging in the physical market.
The rally was limited by the US unveiling a slew of letters warning key trading partners of high tariff rates, including 25% levies on goods from Japan and South Korea, muddling the long-term energy demand outlook for several major oil-consuming nations. US President Donald Trump said an Aug. 1 deadline was “not 100% firm” and signaled he might tweak rates further. Oil settled higher on Monday even after OPEC+ decided to increase production more rapidly than expected in August. Saudi Arabia raised the cost of crude for buyers in Asia by more than customers were expecting — a sign Riyadh is confident the market is strong enough to absorb extra supplies.
“The fundamental reality is that oil inventories remain low, and balances should tighten during the summer despite the OPEC+ increase,” Societe Generale SA said in a report. “The unwinding will show up in inventory levels, thus affecting prices and term structures, and the swoosh in the forward curve should eventually disappear.”
Never Mind:
Oil prices dip 2% with trade in focus
Crude oil prices slipped by more than 2% on Thursday after the newest tariffs imposed by United States President Donald Trump, including a 50% tariff on copper and a 50% trade duty on Brazilian exports. Investors also digested the latest World Oil Outlook 2050 report from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), which saw an increasing demand in oil by year 2050, but cut its demand expectations for the next few years. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for August’s deliveries dropped by 2.50% at 9:41 am ET, selling for $66.67 per barrel. Meanwhile, Brent for September’s settlements declined by 2.07% and went for $68.73 per barrel at 9:41 am ET.
The Oil Market Can Absorb OPEC+ Output Hikes?
- OPEC+ surprised markets by announcing a larger-than-expected August output hike of 548,000 bpd.
- Analysts say actual supply increases remain limited due to ongoing compensation cuts.
- Strong summer demand, especially from Asia, is expected to absorb the added barrels, but demand could falter this autumn. OPEC+ never fails to surprise speculators and market analysts. This weekend’s meeting to decide August production levels was expected to be a short routine video call to announce another output hike of 411,000 barrels per day (bpd). Short it was, but the size of the increase for August was bigger than expected— 548,000 bpd. The eight OPEC+ members that are unwinding the cuts are expected to make another supersized increase in September, with which the 2.2 million bpd cuts will all be back on the market, at least the headline figures suggest so. OPEC+ continues to rely on strong summer oil demand to absorb the additional barrels. The physical market appears to be tight in the near term, although the coming glut in the autumn and beyond is likely to push oil prices further down. Oil didn’t collapse following this weekend’s OPEC+ decision—a sign that there isn’t immediate fear of oversupply and that the market hasn’t shaken off entirely geopolitics-driven volatility.
Immediately after the OPEC+ meeting, Saudi Arabia raised the official selling price (OSP) for its crude destined for Asia and Europe in August, betting on robust summer demand to soak up the additional supply.
Current oil prices in the $60s per barrel are likely to encourage buying in Asia, as China continues to stockpile crude with high purchases at lower oil prices. The market is still tight in the near term, with the tightness reflected in the strength in the prompt Brent timespread, ING commodities strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey wrote in a note on Tuesday.“The expected supply surplus won’t materialise until later this year, when we expect more sustained downward price pressure,” they added. The middle distillate market is also tightening, more so than the crude market. Gasoil refining margins are rising, while speculators hold the largest net long position – the difference between bullish and bearish bets – in gasoil for a year, according to ING.
In the United States, middle distillate inventories sit at their lowest level in more than two decades for this time of the year, the bank’s strategists noted.
Saudi Aramco’s crude price hikes to all regions for August-loading cargoes also signal that physical markets remain tight, “suggesting the additional barrels can be absorbed—for now,” Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, wrote in a Monday note.
“In the short term, downside risks to crude appear contained,” Hansen said.
Ukraine: Russia launched massive attack with 728 drones……… Biggest Ever!
The Air Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported on Wednesday that Russia launched a massive overnight air assault involving 741 aerial threats, including 728 Shahed-type drones and decoy UAVs. The attack began at 20:00 (local time) on Tuesday and continued through the night. In addition to the drones, the assault involved seven Kh-101 and Iskander-K cruise missiles launched from Russia’s Saratov and Kursk regions, as well as six Kh-47M2 Kinzhal aeroballistic missiles fired from airspace over the Lipetsk region. Ukrainian air defenses neutralized 718 targets, according to preliminary data. Of these, 303 were destroyed by firepower, while 415 were lost or suppressed through electronic warfare systems. The city of Lutsk in the Volyn region in the northwestern part of the country was the main target of the strikes. Authorities recorded direct strikes at four locations and debris from downed objects in 14 others.
NN: does not look like peace to me
UK: Merchant ship sustains significant damage near Yemen
The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) reported Tuesday that a merchant vessel was attacked by five rocket-propelled grenades about 51 nautical miles west of Hodeidah, Yemen. According to third-party reports and the Company Security Officer, the rockets were fired from multiple small craft. The vessel sustained significant damage and lost all propulsion. UKMTO said the ship remains surrounded by small craft and is under continuous attack. Authorities are investigating, and vessels in the area are advised to transit with caution and report any suspicious activity.
NN: shit their goes the high explosive peace prize for the Yemen deal.. well hopefully a Gaza or Iranian peace deal can be done in time
Oil Climbs 2% as Houthi Rebels Hit Second Greek Vessel in Red Sea
A Greek-operated bulk carrier was attacked in the Red Sea on Monday in the second Houthi strike on commercial shipping in less than 24 hours, stoking fears of a renewed escalation in one of the world’s most critical oil transit corridors, Arab and Israel media report. The Eternity C, a Liberia-flagged vessel managed by Athens-based Cosmoship, was hit off Yemen’s Hodeidah coast using a combination of sea drones, rocket-propelled grenades, and small arms. Two seafarers were seriously injured and two more are missing, according to shipping intelligence sources cited by media. The vessel was reportedly en route to Iran with a cargo of steel. The attack follows Sunday’s strike on the Magic Seas, another Greek-managed bulk carrier. Houthi militants claim the Magic Seas has sunk. That vessel was hit southwest of Hodeidah and its crew abandoned ship before rescue. Both ships are Liberia-flagged, and neither was carrying Israeli cargo, according to tracking data. Insurance premiums for vessels crossing the Bab el-Mandeb strait have already increased, with underwriters signaling more exclusions are likely in coming days. The renewed Red Sea volatility comes as Axios reports that Israeli officials believe Donald Trump would authorize pre-emptive military action against Iran’s nuclear program if he returns to office. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is expected to raise the issue during a closed-door dinner with Trump this week. Tehran has restarted centrifuge operations at key enrichment sites, setting off fresh alarm in Tel Aviv.
NN: watch the clown show.
Oil Edges Up as Saudis Bet Market Can Absorb OPEC+ Output Hike
Oil crept higher as Saudi Arabia surprised customers in Asia by hiking prices for its main crude grade, signaling a vote of confidence that the market can absorb extra OPEC barrels. West Texas Intermediate crude traded above $67 a barrel, erasing earlier losses. Saudi state producer Aramco will raise the price for Arab Light crude, its flagship grade, by $1 a barrel to $2.20 a barrel more than the regional benchmark for Asian customers in August, according to a sheet from the company seen by Bloomberg. The pricing move staved off a rout in oil after a simultaneous decision by eight OPEC+ nations to increase supply more rapidly than expected with an addition of 548,000 barrels a day in August and more expected in September.
“The decision to raise prices during the peak summer demand season signals that physical markets remain tight, suggesting the additional barrels can be absorbed — for now,” said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank A/S. “In the short term, downside risks to crude appear contained.”
Meanwhile, President Donald Trump pushed back a July 9 deadline for country-by-country tariffs to go into effect to Aug. 1, allowing trade partners three more weeks to negotiate away economy-crushing levies on exports to the US. The delay has improved the near-term demand outlook for oil-consuming nations, including the European Union, facing especially punishing tax rates, but uncertainty surrounding the final outcome of talks continues to weigh on crude prices. Traders and analysts also noted that OPEC’s decision to hike production at an even faster-than-anticipated rate highlights bullish market fundamentals, including resilient demand in the US and China, as well as pockets of extreme tightness in the physical market amid summer driving season. The larger increase also amplifies a dramatic strategy pivot, from years of output restraint to reopening the taps to reclaim market share. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies had announced hikes of 411,000 barrels a day for May, June and July — already three times faster than initially planed — and traders had expected the same for August. The cartel will consider adding another 548,000 barrels a day in September at its next meeting on Aug. 3, according to delegates. The boost was based on “a steady global economic outlook and current healthy market fundamentals,” the group said in a statement on Saturday. OPEC+ will increase oil production even more rapidly than expected next month as eight key alliance members agreed to raise supply by 548,000 barrels a day at a video conference on Saturday. The countries had announced increases of 411,000 barrels for each of May, June and July. Bloomberg’s Anthony di Paola reports. Oil has been trading in a relatively narrow band since the pause in the Israel-Iran conflict, which saw Brent top $80 a barrel. OPEC+ is “clearly taking advantage of a period of tightness in global energy markets,” said Robert Rennie, the head of commodity and carbon research at Westpac Banking Corp. However, there are “downside risks” to oil prices as seasonal demand wanes after summer, he added. In the Middle East, Yemen’s Houthis have claimed responsibility for an attack on a ship sailing through the Red Sea, in their first strike on merchant shipping since December.
NN: do not be fooled supplies ae tight. many produces ae losing money with prices at these levels. refracking old wells can not be justified, and peace in the middle east is very elusive. i am still gunning for $100 brent
Oil Prices Expected to Stay Under $70……No Way
- Analysts widely expect oil prices to remain below $70 per barrel for the remainder of 2025, primarily due to global oversupply and ongoing uncertainties regarding demand.
- Despite heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, these factors are not anticipated to significantly drive up oil prices unless direct supply disruptions occur.
- Major investment banks and surveys project average Brent crude prices around $66-$67 and WTI crude around $63-$64 for the year, with OPEC+ likely to adjust production if prices fall significantly.
Despite heightened tensions in the Middle East, oil prices are likely to remain capped below $70 per barrel for the rest of the year amid ample supply and uncertainties about demand. Unless actual supply disruptions occur in and around the hotspots in the Middle East, the price of oil will be a function of supply and demand, analysts and investment banks say. Growing supply from the OPEC+ group, although not as high as the monthly headline figure of 411,000 barrels per day (bpd) suggests, is set to create an oversupply on the market going into autumn, even if summer demand holds strong. On the demand side, peak summer travel season may justify higher supply, but lingering trade and economic uncertainties may cap upside to prices. As a result, most analysts expect oil prices to hover around the current levels in the mid-$60s per barrel and average below $70 a barrel for 2025.
Currently, oil’s ‘normal’ price would be in the $70s range, but the market oversupply is keeping prices in the $60s, Rob Thummel, senior portfolio manager of Tortoise Capital, told BNN Bloomberg this week.
“In order for oil prices to return to what we think is the $70s, kind of normal price, you need the market to really rebalance,” Thummel said. “What that means is either oil production in other locations is going to fall, and, or effectively, demand for oil is probably going to rise more than what people expect in the second half of the year.” According to Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, crude oil may face headwinds in the second half of the year amid rising output and economic growth concerns.
“OPEC8+ continues to ramp up production in an effort to punish overproducing quota cheaters, and to reclaim market share from higher-cost producers which may eventually have to dial down production amid lower price expectations,” Hansen said in a weekly commodities commentary.
Major investment banks, including Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and JPMorgan, expect Brent crude prices to average $66.32 a barrel and WTI Crude to average $63.03 per barrel this year, according to a June survey by The Wall Street Journal. The responses in June were slightly higher compared to those in the May poll, but the analysts continue to see fundamentals as key for prices, and right now these fundamentals point to an oversupply amid uncertain economic prospects with the U.S. tariff policies.
The Reuters survey of 40 analysts and economists in June also saw a slight increase in the price forecasts. Brent is seen averaging $67.86 per barrel in 2025, up from $66.98 a barrel expected in May. WTI is expected to average $64.51, up from $63.35 per barrel in May. However, analysts concur that the glut would cap rallies unless the Middle East conflict broadens and leads to more volatility and price spikes.
In case an oversupply overwhelms the market if summer demand disappoints, OPEC+ is likely to act swiftly to put a floor under prices by pausing production increases.
“We expect OPEC+ to exert caution in raising production, even putting plans on hold indefinitely at the first signs that prices may fall significantly,” Matthew Sherwood, lead commodities analyst at EIU, told Reuters.
Next week could remove some uncertainty over the global economy and oil demand as July 9 is the end of President Trump’s 90-day pause on the so-called “reciprocal” tariffs.
“We could see tariff increases reinstated on some US trading partners if trade deals are not concluded. This leaves a fair amount of uncertainty going into next week,” ING strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey wrote in a note on Thursday.
The oil market is full of uncertainties, but current supply and demand balances point to an oversupply and subdued oil prices in the coming months, barring a supply disruption in the Middle East.