Beware Trump’s October surprise ahead of November elections

Historically, the closer to the election, the more outrageous it is likely to be, and outrageous is a Trump specialty

In a vitriolic Labor Day campaign speech parading as a news conference on the White House North Portico, US President Donald Trump predicted a “very safe and very effective” vaccine for COVID-19 could be available as early as next month, just in time to boost his reelection. Ordinarily such an announcement, at a time when 190,000 Americans have succumbed to the virus and 6.3 million more are infected, would be greeted enthusiastically, but coming from a pathological liar who once recommended injections of bleach, bright light and other quack remedies as curatives, the response has ranged from suspicious to disbelief. Former vice president Joe Biden, Democratic nominee for president, echoed the skepticism of many Americans. Aware that most scientists and health experts in and out of government doubt a safe and effective vaccine can be found that soon, he said he would want their testimony, not this president’s.  Trump has “said so many things that aren’t true, I’m worried if we do have a really good vaccine, people are going to be reluctant to take it,” he said. His running mate, Sen. Kamala Harris, was more blunt. “There’s very little that we can trust that can comes out of Donald Trump’s mouth,” she said. The president, sounding unhinged at times, called his opponents as “stupid,” “not competent,” “reckless” and “anti-vaccine” – and that was just Monday. Government scientists are reportedly worried about White House pressure on the Food and Drug Administration to approve a vaccine before it is proven safe and effective, as the law requires. The FDA leadership’s credibility is already suspect in the wake of its emergency authorization for convalescent plasma, and Trump has attacked agency staff as being “deep state” actors for questioning some his pronouncements. Trump’s abuse of a possible vaccine discovery for his own political gain could endanger millions of Americans who would avoid getting vaccinated because they won’t know this isn’t another Trump hoax or the real thing. If Trump does plan to spring his miracle cure surprise announcement, he might pick the third presidential debate on October 22 in Nashville. The value of an October surprise is to hold it until almost the last minute to avoid giving the opposition time to respond. Historically, the closer to the election, the more outrageous it is likely to be, and outrageous is a Trump specialty. Given Trump’s penchant for diversionary tactics, disinformation and surprise revelations, there are likely to be others. One possibility is an announcement by his consigliere, Attorney-General Bill Barr, of the results of John Durham’s investigation of the Mueller investigation into Russia’s role in the 2016 election. Durham, the US attorney in Connecticut, has turned up “surprising and damaging information,” Barr said, according to National Public Radio, and he refused to rule out releasing it before the election. Judging by how Barr misrepresented and delayed the Mueller report findings, you can expect him to give his version of Durham’s report without making any substance public, at least not before November 3.