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Aramco prices IPO at top price of 32 Saudi riyals per share

Aramco has priced its highly anticipated initial public offering at 32 riyals ($8.53) per share.

State-owned oil giant Saudi Aramco’s initial public offering (IPO) will be the biggest in history, but will still fall significantly short of the towering $2 trillion valuation long sought by Saudia Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Aramco priced its IPO at 32 riyals ($8.53) per share, the top of its indicative range, the company said in a statement, raising $25.6bn and beating Alibaba’s record $25bn listing in 2014.

At that level, Aramco has a market valuation of $1.7 trillion, comfortably overtaking Apple as the world’s most valuable listed firm.

But the listing, expected later this month on the Riyadh stock exchange, is a far cry from the blockbuster debut originally envisaged by the Crown Prince. Nick Note: Do not let the Stupids bullshit you. This is the BIGGEST IPO ever Aramco’s local listing was oversubscribed by nearly three times, attracting offers worth 189.04 billion riyals ($50.4 billion), according to banks advising the listing. … That 1% is equivalent to 2 billion shares. It has noting to do with the electric car, Co2 emissions or other fantasies that oil will be replaced anytime soon.. The reality is this is the worlds largest cheapest oil producer. And the worlds largest biggest most profitable company. And Nothing is going to change that for decades to come. AND AND the other Middle East oil producers including Iran are  watching. They have never been able to capitalize their great assets on a mammoth scale…. till now. Welcome to the era of oil states Sovereign Wealth Funds…..

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If the sterling rally fizzles, this chart could be a key reason why

Surge in registration of younger U.K. voters

The British pound has been on a roll of late, climbing against both the dollar   on expectations the Conservative party will secure a majority in the Dec. 12 general election. The pound on Thursday reached a fresh five-month high against the U.S. dollar. With a majority in Parliament, Prime Minister Boris Johnson intends to pass a withdrawal agreement bill to exit the European Union. Johnson would then have to negotiate a trade deal with the E.U. Virtually every pre-election poll has the Conservatives with a bigger lead than is necessary to secure a majority in the Parliament. The general consensus is that a victory by 6 or 7 percentage points is needed for Conservatives to escape a so-called hung Parliament. Of the major polls, only one, from ICM Research, shows the Conservatives with a 7-point lead. More typical is the poll from YouGov showing the Conservatives with a 9-point lead.

If sterling traders are making a mistake, however, it will be because of this chart.

Put together by Samuel Tombs, chief U.K. economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, it shows a surge in voter registrations. About two-thirds of those registrations been made by those under the age of 35, who are far more likely to vote Labour. In 2017, first-time voters aged 18 and 19 favored Labour by 47 percentage points, according to YouGov. Nick Note: As you know i think this is going to blow up in Boris face. Remember the people did not elect him. AND AND AND the Brits are very suspicious of the in the dark of the night Brexit deal Boris and friends are trying to cram down their throat… My bet obviously is this will fall apart. The Brits are courting disaster!

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OPEC considering a deeper cut to its oil production

Global oil-producing group OPEC and its allies are meeting in Vienna, with expectations raised over whether the alliance will make further cuts to its output at the two-day gathering. The 14 members of OPEC and a group of allied non-OPEC producers led by Russia (collectively known as OPEC+) are expected to at least keep production cuts at their current level of 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) through to June 2020. The current agreement is due to expire in March but there’s speculation that the group could opt to cut further — if Russia agrees. OPEC meets on Thursday and the group will be joined by its non-OPEC allies on Friday — with a final decision likely that afternoon. Oil prices have rallied in recent trading sessions, boosted by intensifying speculation about the potential for deeper production cuts. However, Brent crude futures remain around 15% lower when compared to an April peak, with WTI down 12% over the same period. On Thursday, a Reuters report, citing two unnamed sources from OPEC+, said the main scenario for discussions on Thursday would be whether to deepen oil cuts by more than 400,000 bpd. Helima Croft, RBC head of global commodities strategy, told CNBC’s Dan Murphy in Vienna on Thursday that a production cut of 400,000 bpd was “potentially a very realistic option.” “I think this actually is something which is very much a live option. We are actually hearing that this was not a proposal that the Iraqi’s made but that it was a proposal made by the Saudi government,” Croft said. “And so, the fact that this is potentially coming from Saudi Arabia — the driver of the OPEC bus — I think means that we should give it a lot more credibility than if it is coming from a country that is very compliance-challenged like Iraq.” On Monday, a separate Reuters report suggested Riyadh wanted to deliver a positive surprise to the market before the partial listing of state producer Saudi Aramco. It also indicated OPEC+ would seek to deepen cuts by at least 400,000 b/d to the current deal. Iraqi Oil Minister Thamer Ghadhban has since publicly endorsed a 400,000 bpd production cut, telling CNBC on Wednesday that the current level of production cuts was “not really that effective.” Ghadhban’s comments raised eyebrows among some external observers, with many quick to point out that OPEC’s second-largest oil producer was also one of its most chronic over-producers. Iraq has consistently violated output cut agreements due to its complicated political situation and heavy reliance on hydrocarbon revenues for reconstruction after years of war. The OPEC+ group (amounting to 24 countries) has cut its collective production since January 2017 in a bid to counter increasing global oil supply from the likes of U.S. shale oil producers and lackluster demand. OPEC+ was prompted to act after global oil prices tumbled in mid-2014 due to an oversupply but U.S. shale producers are not a part of the deal and shale oil supply has grown exponentially. The U.S. is now the world’s largest oil producer hitting 12.3 million bpd in 2019, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, up from 11 million bpd in 2018. Along with rampant shale supply, faltering demand due to a global economic slowdown, exacerbated by the Sino-U.S. trade war, has once again threatened to unbalance oil supply and demand dynamics. The US  produces more oil than Saudi Arabia and Russia, although there are signs that production growth is slowing in the States. Nick Note: This is all very nice. But I want to see what happens (my satellites show production still increasing… analyzing  thermal imagoes is  more complicated then tuning into CNBC and listening to sweet tits and pretty boy) after OPEC members  all go back home and the Vienna hookers go back to servicing truck drivers in the back of the sleeper cabs. I am told the hookers prefer turning tricks at the 5 star hotels. As you know we took profits on natural gas before it fell out of bed. We then took profits on crude oil shorts at the cycle low before the pop up. AND yesterday we cashed in on the jump in heating oil. So for now all i want to do is my Amazon prime shopping. As i am  looking for something to pounce on.

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EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report

Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the week ending November 29, 2019
Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased last week by 4.9 million barrels last week. Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 21.2 million barrels per day, up by 0.3% from the same period last year. U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 16.8 million barrels per day during the week ending November 29, 2019, which was 464,000 barrels per day more than the previous week’s average. Refineries operated at 91.9% of their operable capacity last week. Gasoline production decreased last week, averaging 9.9 million barrels per day. Distillate
fuel production increased last week, averaging 5.3 million barrels per day. U.S. crude oil imports averaged 6.0 million barrels per day last week, down by 201,000 barrels per day from the previous week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports
averaged about 6.0 million barrels per day, 21.3% less than the same four-week period last year.
Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 399,000 barrels per day, and distillate fuel imports averaged 143,000 barrels per day. U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 4.9 million barrels from the previous week. At 447.1 million
barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 3% above the five year average for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 3.4 million barrels last week and are about 4% above the five year average for this time of year. Finished gasoline and blending components inventories both increased last week. Distillate fuel inventories
increased by 3.1 million barrels last week and
are about 11% below the five year average for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories decreased by 1.7 million barrels last week and are about 5% above the five year average for this time of year. Over the past four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied averaged 9.2 million barrels per day, up by 0.8% from the same period last year. Distillate fuel product supplied averaged 4.2 million barrels per day over the past four weeks, up by 1.8% from the same period last year. Jet fuel product supplied was up 1.4% compared with the same four-week period last year
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Boris Johnson, Emmanuel Macron and Justin Trudeau are caught on a hot mic

Trump is the laughing stock of world leaders. at one time our leaders had the worlds respect and fear, with trump their is neither

Justin Trudeau, Emmanuel Macron and Boris Johnson were caught on a hot mic at the Buckingham Palace NATO reception yesterday evening, appearing to gossip about Donald Trump and the length of his impromptu press conferences.  In a clip, the three world leaders seem to be discussing why the French President was late during the London summit, held to mark the alliance’s 70th anniversary. Princess Anne also appears to be involved in the discussion but it is unclear if or how she responds. None of the men mention Trump by name but Dutch PM Mark Rutte is heard joking with Macron about the ‘fake news media’, with Trudeau appearing to refer to the US President’s talks with the media yesterday.   Trump spoke at length to reporters in the afternoon after an awkward press conference with Emmanuel Macron, following on from an earlier and equally lengthy chat after a sit-down with NATO president Jens Stoltenberg in the morning.   In the clip, British Prime Minister Johnson asks: ‘Is that why you were late?’ as he stoops down and chuckles in disbelief, before Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau, swigging from his drink, shoots back: ‘He was late because he takes a 40 minute press conference off the top.’   The video then cuts to a later clip, which is without context, and sees Macron pointing furiously before Mr Rutte exclaims ‘fake news media’ and Trudeau adds: ‘You just watched his team’s jaws drop to the floor.’  He then motions as if his jaw is dropping. Nick Note: America can not stand another term of Trump as President. One can only hope the stupid money wakes up or GOD intervenes

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Trump abused power of presidency, Dems conclude in impeachment report

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The impeachment inquiry into Donald J. Trump, the 45th President of the United States, uncovered a months long effort by President Trump to use the powers of his office to solicit foreign interference on his behalf in the 2020 election. As described in this executive summary and the report that follows, President Trump’s scheme subverted U.S. foreign policy toward Ukraine and undermined our national security in favor of two politically motivated investigations that would help his presidential reelection campaign. The President demanded that the newly elected Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky, publicly announce investigations into a
political rival that he apparently feared the most,
former Vice President Joe Biden, and into a
discredited theory that it was Ukraine, not Russia, that interfered in the 2016 presidential election. To compel the Ukrainian President to do his political bidding, President Trump conditioned two official acts on the public announcement of the investigations: a coveted White House visit and critical U.S. military assistance Ukraine needed to fight its Russian adversary. During a July 25, 2019, call between President Trump and President Zelen
sky, President Zelensky expressed gratitude for U.S. military assistance. President Trump immediately responded by asking President Zelensky to “do us a favor though” and openly pressed for Ukraine to investigate former Vice President Biden and the 2016 conspiracy theory. In turn, President Zelensky assured President Trump that he would pursue the investigation and
reiterated his interest in the White House meeting. Although President Trump’s scheme
intentionally bypassed many career personnel, it was un dertaken with the knowledge and
approval of senior Administration officials, including the President’s Acting Chief of Staff Mick
Mulvaney, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, and Secretary of Energy Rick Perry. In fact, at a press conference weeks after public revelations about the scheme, Mr. Mulvaney publicly acknowledged that the President directly tied the hold on military aid to his desire to get Ukraine to conduct a political investigation, telling Americans to “get over it.” President Trump and his senior officials may see nothing wrong with using the power of
the Office of the President to pressure a foreign country to help the President’s reelection
campaign. Indeed, President Trump continues to encourage Ukraine and other foreign countries
to engage in the same kind of election interference today. However, the Founding Fathers prescribed a remedy for a chief executive who places his personal interests above those of the country:
impeachment. Accordingly, as part of the House of Representatives’ impeachment inquiry, the Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence, in coordination with the Committees on Oversight and Reform and Foreign Affairs, were compelled to undertake a serious, sober, and expeditious investigation into whether the President’s misconduct warrants that remedy. In response, President Trump engaged in an unprecedented campaign of obstruction of this impeachment inquiry. Nevertheless, due in large measure to patriotic and courageous public servants who provided the Committees with direct evidence of the President’s actions, the Committees uncovered significant misconduct on the part of the President of the United States. As required under House Resolution 660, the Intelligence Committee, in consultation with the Committees on Oversight and Reform and Foreign Affairs, has prepared this report to detail the evidence uncovered to date, which will now be transmitted to the Judiciary Committee for its consideration.
Full Report – Trump Impeachment Inquiry
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API Reports Larger Than Expected Crude Draw

The American Petroleum Institute (API) has estimated a crude oil inventory draw of 3.72 million barrels for the week ending November 28, the biggest draw since September. After today’s reported inventory move, the net inventory moves so far this year stand at a draw of 2.98 million barrels for the 49-week reporting period so far, using API data. WTI spot prices were trading up on Tuesday prior to the data release despite disappointing trade negotiation news courtesy of President Trump. At 12:12pm EST, WTI was trading up 0.13% (+$0.07) at $56.03—more than $2 per barrel lower than last week’s levels. The price of a Brent barrel, on the other hand, was trading slightly down, by $0.02 (-0.03%) at that time, at $60.90—also roughly $2 per barrel down from last week.  The API  reported a build of 2.93 million barrels of gasoline for week ending November 28. Distillate inventories saw a build of 794,000 barrels for the week, while Cushing inventories fell by 251,000 barrels. US crude oil production as estimated by the Energy Information Administration showed that production for the week ending November 22 climbed to another brand new high for the week of 12.9 million bpd—more than 1 million bpd over the daily average production at the beginning of the year.

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Trump: No deadline on reaching China trade deal

United States President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that he has “no deadline” for reaching a trade deal with China and added it could be “better” to wait until after the 2020 US presidential election to strike the agreement. Speaking ahead of a meeting with NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg in London, Trump insisted the trade agreement will only depend on whether he wants to make it as he once again insisted Beijing wants the deal as soon as possible.On Monday, the US president stressed that the fact he signed the bill backing Hong Kong protesters doesn’t make chances of a trade deal with China “better” but insisted it is still possible an agreement will be struck.

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Bank Math Adds Up to Possible December Squeeze

Some big banks are cutting it close on a key regulatory measure, which could limit their ability to lend if year-end markets get rocky

https://youtu.be/4NbhBrvuXaI

Don’t rule out another bumpy New Year’s Eve in the funding markets. The lack of cash circulating in short-term money markets has pushed up the effective fed funds rate, the actual level at which banks lend to each other overnight. As a result, Hills says the CME’s tracker of rate decision probabilities may be reflecting the odds for the effective fed funds rate to remain elevated due to this week’s funding squeeze, rather than expectations for the fed funds target range going forward. The effective fed funds rate, the actual level at which banks lend overnight, jumped above the interest rate on reserves that bank keep in excess of their reserve requirements  Usually, this is seen as a temporary state of affairs because banks have no incentive to borrow from another bank when it could simply withdraw funds on deposit at the Fed, but the persistence of the fed funds rate above the IOER has raised questions whether the central bank is losing its grip over its benchmark interest rate.

Market participants have pointed to the sharp jump in the repurchase rate, or repo rate.  This key interest rate represents the amount that banks, dealers and hedge funds are charged for borrowing funds for a short period of time, in return for collateral such as Treasurys. Investors tend to be nervous about a climb in repo rates as they’re usually associated with banking crises and credit crunches. Repo rates spiked back in the 2008 financial crisis when banks were unwilling to lend to each other amid questions about their solvency.

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Oil gains amid push by Saudi Arabia for further supply cuts

THEY ARE BACK!!!

TOKYO (Reuters) – Oil prices rose on Tuesday, as OPEC and its allies discuss whether to deepen a supply cut pact ahead of meetings this week, although prospects after Saudi Arabia’s planned listing of Aramco fuelled uncertainty for traders, limiting gains. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude CLc1 was up by 20 cents, or 0.4%, at $56.16 a barrel. The contract rose 1.4% on Monday. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, a group known as OPEC+, are discussing a plan to increase an existing supply cut of 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) by a further 400,000 bpd and extend the pact until June, two sources familiar with the matter said. Saudi Arabia is pushing the plan to deliver a positive surprise to the market before the initial public offering (IPO) of state-owned Saudi Aramco, the sources said. The “oil price is little moved today, suggesting that traders are sceptical about the additional 400,000 bpd cut on top of the extension of (the) current production cut agreement,” said Margaret Yang, market analyst at CMC Markets in Singapore. “The question is what they are going to do after the Aramco IPO and that creates uncertainty for the oil prices,” Yang said. OPEC ministers will meet in Vienna on Thursday and the wider OPEC+ group will gather on Friday. Concerns about the inability of the United States and China, the world’s two biggest oil users, to reach a preliminary deal to resolve their 17-month trade dispute also weighed on oil prices, along with discouraging U.S. economic data. A senior adviser to President Donald Trump said a U.S.-China trade deal was still possible before the end of the year, adding that the first phase of the agreement was being put to paper, but the talks have been dragging on for weeks now. And while OPEC may cut output, U.S. producers have been only to happy to match any market shortfalls, with production setting successive records. Growth into 2020, though, may range between 100,000 bpd and 1 million bpd. U.S. crude inventories are expected to have declined last week, which may support prices, with analysts in a preliminary Reuters polls suggesting a contraction of 1.8 million barrels. In a sign of buying interest for oil, fund managers increased net long positions in U.S. crude futures and options in the week to Nov. 26, the U.S. Commodities Futures Trading Commission