- National polls have been showing that President Trump has narrowed his deficit.
- Surveys in the critical battleground states of Pennsylvania and Florida are also tentatively showing Biden has peaked.
- The chances of a contested election are rising and could lead to a stock sell-off and a dollar rise.
- Two weeks ahead of election day, there are signs that incumbent Donald Trump is clawing back some support, raising the chances that the race could drag on for longer.
Before pointing to the encouraging signs for the president, it is essential to note that Biden’s lead remains significant and that there major differences in comparison to 2016. These include the fact fewer undecideds, more high-quality state surveys, and the fact that 38 million Americans have already voted – around six times more than at this point six years ago. Moreover, pollsters may be overcompensating for some of their errors back then.
All in all, Biden is a clear favorite to win the elections – but the chances that it will be disputed by a disgruntled Trump are now higher then ever.
On the national level, the New York Times/Siena College poll showed Biden leading by nine points – the first post-debate high-quality poll to show only a single-digit lead for the former Vice President. Surveys from Fox News, NBC, ABC and others showed a double-digit advantage during October. Another recent publication worth mentioning is the IBD/TIPP poll that pointed to Trump trailing by only three points. This pollster is releasing daily surveys that have consistently been more favorable to the incumbent. Back in 2016, it showed the then-businessman leading over Hillary Clinton – was wrong as she won the popular vote by nearly three million people or 2%.
These polls have pushed the RealClearPolitics average down to 8.6%:
Nick Note: Again i want to be on record here. Trump is losing BUT its closer then most people think. FOR A FACT it will be close enough for Trump to move to plan B. Their will be weeks of pissing and shitting as the elections will be decided by the lawyers. I believe the markets will be devastated. That is why we spin the wheel with eyes glued to the silver ball.