Greek Oil Tanker Drifting, Ablaze after Repeated Attacks in the Red Sea

A Greek-flagged oil tanker traveling through the Red Sea came under repeated attack Wednesday, leaving the vessel “not under command” and drifting ablaze after an assault suspected to have been carried out by Yemen’s Houthi militants, the British military said. The attack, the most serious in the Red Sea in weeks, comes during a months long campaign by Houthis targeting ships over the Israel-Hamas war in the Gaza Strip that has disrupted a trade route through which $1 trillion in cargo typically passes each year. In the attack, men on small boats first opened fire with small arms about 140 kilometers (90 miles) west of the Houthi-held Yemeni port city of Hodeidah, the British military’s United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations center said. Four projectiles also hit the ship, it added. It wasn’t immediately clear if that meant drones or missiles. “The vessel reports being not under command,” the UKMTO said, likely meaning it lost all power. “No casualties reported.” Later, the UKMTO warned the ship was drifting while on fire in the Red Sea. The Greek shipping ministry later identified the vessel as the tanker Sounion, which had 25 crew members on board at the time of the attack as it traveled from Iraq to Cyprus.

Later Wednesday, the UKMTO reported a second ship being targeted in the Gulf of Aden by three explosions that occurred in the water close to it, though they caused no damage. The Houthis did not immediately claim responsibility for the attacks, though it can take them hours or even days before they acknowledge their assaults. However, they did acknowledge US airstrikes in Hodeidah, something the American military’s Central Command said destroyed a Houthi surface-to-air missile and radar system. The last three recent attacks, including Wednesday’s, targeted vessels associated with Delta Tankers, a Greek company.  Early Thursday, the US military’s Central Command said the Lincoln had reached the Mideast’s waters, without elaborating.

Standard Chartered Says Oil Demand Hit All Time High in June

In a report sent  late Tuesday by Standard Chartered Bank Commodities Research Head Paul Horsnell, analysts at the company, including Horsnell, said global oil demand reached an all-time high in June. “The release of Joint Oil Data Initiative (JODI) data on 19 August has, together with a variety of national sources, allowed us to make a first calculation of actual global oil demand in June; we put demand at 103.01 million barrels per day,” the analysts stated in the report. “Following JODI revisions, we now estimate May demand at 102.68 million barrels per day, the second-highest monthly average after June,” they added. “Year on year demand growth was 788,000 barrels per day in June, a deceleration from 1.267 million barrels per day in May and 2.129 million barrels per day in April,” they continued. The analysts noted in the report that average growth was 1.521 million barrels per day year on year in the second quarter of 2024, which they pointed out was close to their forecast for 2024 full-year growth. “We expect demand to remain above 103 million barrels per day for the rest of 2024, before falling seasonally to 101.9 million barrels per day in January,” the analysts added. “We calculate that global supply increased 160,000 barrels per day month on month to 102.097 million barrels per day in June, still well below December 2023’s all-time high of 103.162 million barrels per day,” they said. In the report, the Standard Chartered analysts warned that, “while the global numbers appear bullish, market dynamics have remained extremely bearish”.

“The key support for Brent is the 5 August low of $75.05 per barrel; below that level we would expect a period of relatively chaotic and algorithmic-dominated trading given the high degree of dislocation from fundamental influences,” they warned.

“However, in terms of pure global supply and demand dynamics, we see little justification for a sustained period of trading below $80 per barrel,” the analysts highlighted. The Standard Chartered analysts stated in the report that the latest slide in prices has been ascribed in much media and analyst commentary to a reduction in the geopolitical risk premium, consequent on progress towards a bridging agreement that might allow a ceasefire in Gaza to be discussed further. They said in the report, however, that they are unconvinced by that explanation. “We do not subscribe to the concept of a geopolitical risk premium, but even if it was a useful way of analyzing markets, a reduction in the premium would be associated with the closing out of long positions,” they added. “What we have observed over the past week has primarily been an opening of new short positions,” they continued.

EIA: US crude inventories down by 4.6 million barrels

Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the week ending August 16, 2024

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 4.6 million barrels from the previous week. At 426.0 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 5% below the five year average for this time of year. U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 16.7 million barrels per day during the week ending August 16, 2024, which was 222 thousand barrels per day more than the previous week’s average. Refineries operated at 92.3% of their operable capacity last week. Gasoline production increased last week, averaging 9.8 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel production increased last week, averaging 4.9 million barrels per day. U.S. crude oil imports averaged 6.7 million barrels per day last week, increased by 366 thousand barrels per day from the previous week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged about 6.5 million barrels per day, 4.8% less than the same four-week period last year. Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 531 thousand barrels per day, and distillate fuel imports averaged 63 thousand barrels per day. Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 1.6 million barrels from last week and are about 3% below the five year  average for this time of year. Both finished gasoline and blending components inventories decreased last week. Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 3.3 million barrels last week and are
about 10% below the five year average for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories increased by 2.0 million barrels from last week and are 14% above the five year average for this time of year. Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 5.9 million barrels last week. Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 20.4 million barrels a day, down
by 2.3% from the same period last year. Over the past four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied averaged 9.1 million barrels a day, up by 1.5% from the same period last year. Distillate fuel product supplied averaged 3.6 million barrels a day over the past four weeks, down by 5.0%
from the same period last year. Jet fuel product supplied was up 3.2% compared with the same
four-week period last year

Gaza peace deal on ‘brink of collapsing’…….. Blinken fails to secure ceasefire deal……. Iran says its retaliation could take a ‘long’ time

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken left the Middle East late on Tuesday having failed to secure a deal to halt fighting between Hamas and Israel, highlighting how the two sides remained sharply divided despite US officials’ insistence that an agreement was close. After a day spent meeting Egyptian and Qatari officials, Blinken reiterated that Israel had agreed to what the top US diplomat called a “bridging” agreement that would create space for the two sides to hammer out the details of a ceasefire introduced by President Joe Biden in May. Now it was Hamas’s turn, he said. “Time is of the essence,” Blinken told reporters on the airport tarmac in Doha, minutes before beginning the trip home to the US. “Israel has now accepted that proposal — I heard that directly from Prime Minister Netanyahu yesterday — and we hope and expect Hamas will do the same.” It was Blinken’s ninth trip to the region since the conflict began with Hamas’s 7 October attack on Israel, and the result was just the same: Israel and Hamas were unable to set aside their disagreements to halt the fighting. Stymied in the push for an enduring ceasefire, Blinken had come to the region this week with a more modest proposal aimed at building common ground and easing the violence.

He said Israel must preserve its “strategic security assets,” mentioning its seizure of the Philadelphi corridor and the Rafah border crossing with Egypt earlier in the war. That comment drew a rebuke from a senior State Department official, who told reporters travelling with Blinken that “maximalist” statements from the Israeli leader weren’t constructive.

Looming in the background is the threat of an attack from Iran, which has sworn to retaliate against Israel for the assassination of senior Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran late last month. Israel has declined to take responsibility for the attack.

Iran said its response to the alleged Israeli killing of a Hamas leader in Tehran could take a long time, signalling that the Islamic Republic would not rush the expected retaliation that had raised fears of a regional war in the Middle East. “Time is on our side and it’s possible that the waiting period for this response will be long,” Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps spokesperson Ali Mohammad Naeini was cited as saying by Iranian state TV.

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long live the king

Netanyahu allegedly uncertain of ceasefire deal

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told the relatives of those Hamas holds in captivity that he is not yet certain a new agreement on a ceasefire with the organization will come to a realization, the Walla news agency reported on Tuesday. Netanyahu allegedly said he is “not sure there will be a deal” but insisted that if there is one, it will be in accordance with “Israel’s strategic assets.” The report came after United States Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced the Middle Eastern country agreed to the latest proposal of a ceasefire and prisoner exchange with Hamas. Meanwhile, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) stated it retrieved the bodies of six deceased hostages previously held by Hamas.

Israel strikes against Hamas operatives ‘hidden’ in Gaza school

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said that its forces performed “precise airstrikes” on Tuesday against Hamas members who were allegedly using the infrastructure of the Mustafa Khaft School in Gaza City to hide. According to the army, there was a command and control center from where the gunmen executed attacks against IDF troops and Israeli areas. The army guaranteed to be taking “numerous steps were taken to mitigate the risk of harming civilians, including the use of precise munitions, aerial surveillance and additional intelligence.” Despite US assurances yesterday that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had accepted the ceasefire proposal and blamed solely Hamas, the leader vowed that Israel will not stop with the goal of freeing more hostages and the latest update of the daily death toll in Gaza showed a continued rise.

Biden: Hamas ‘backing away’ from ceasefire deal….. My My What a Surprise

President Joe Biden while giving his prime time speech at the Democratic National Convention on Tuesday received one of over a dozen enthusiastic rounds of applause when he called for an end to the war in Gaza and emphasized the need for peace and security for Israel.

During his speech Biden said that Hamas was “backing away” from a deal with Israel to agree on a ceasefire in the war in Gaza.

“It’s still in play, but you can’t predict,” he said as he prepared to leave Chicago after a keynote address to the Democratic National Convention. “Israel says they can work it out… Hamas is now backing away.”

Earlier in the day, protesters against Israel’s war in Gaza briefly breached the outer security fence of the Democratic convention in Chicago Monday, hours before US President Joe Biden passed the torch to new nominee Kamala Harris. Biden did not directly address the security lapse in his hour-long speech, but he said “those protesters out in the street, they have a point. A lot of innocent people are being killed, on both sides” of the Israel-Hamas conflict. NN: All killed by or because of the savages. This peace deal is little more then a publicity stunt for the Democratic convention. BUY OIL!!!

Blinken: Israel accepts latest Gaza ceasefire proposal…… Netanyahu: Ceasefire deal in first stage

United States Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced on Monday that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu accepted the latest “bridging” proposal regarding a potential ceasefire in Gaza. “It’s now incumbent on Hamas to do the same,” Blinken underlined during a press conference, adding that after that, the mediators have to “come together and complete the process of reaching clear understandings about how they will implement the commitments they made in this agreement.” He reaffirmed that Washington is “deeply committed” to getting the job done as quickly as possible.

Netanyahu: Ceasefire deal in first stage

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated on Monday that the process of reaching an agreement on a new ceasefire and prisoner exchange between his country and Hamas is “already in the first stage.” Speaking in a video released on social media as United States Secretary of State Antony Blinken held a press conference and announced that Israel accepted the latest version of a deal proposed by the mediators, Netanyahu first thanked Washington for the “understanding” it “has shown to our vital security interests, in the course of our joint efforts to bring about the release of our hostages.”During the conference, Blinken explained that the agreed ceasefire will “proceed in phases” that will last six weeks. NN: Hamas has not agreed to this deal…… It will never make it to the final stages.

Netanyahu says he backs US hostage deal proposal

 

After a three-hour meeting with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu puts out a statement publicly backing the latest US bridging proposal that was presented to Israel and conveyed to Hamas at the end of the summit in Doha last week. “The Prime Minister reiterated Israel’s commitment to the current American proposal on the release of our hostages, which takes into account Israel’s security needs, which he strongly insists on,” the Prime Minister’s Office says in a statement issued in Hebrew and English.

Hamas rejected the US formula last night.

In its readout of the Netanyahu-Blinken meeting, the Prime Minister’s Office goes out of its way to stress that the meeting was “positive” and was held in a “good atmosphere.”

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken (left) meets with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Jerusalem, August 19, 2024. (David Azagury/US Embassy Jerusalem)

On Saturday, Israel had cautiously welcomed the new US “bridging proposal,” designed to facilitate and expedite a hostage-ceasefire deal, which was conveyed to Israel and to Hamas on Friday at the end of two days of talks between Israel and the mediators in Doha. The PMO put out a statement at the time that the proposal “contains components that are acceptable to Israel.” Netanyahu has been demanding that any hostage-truce deal provide for an ongoing IDF presence along the Egypt-Gaza border and include a mechanism to prevent a return of armed Hamas gunmen to northern Gaza. He has also insisted that Israel retain the right to resume the battle against Hamas in order to achieve both the war’s declared aims — the release of all hostages and the destruction of Hamas. And he has denied that Israel’s May deal proposal, on which subsequent negotiations have been based, entails a permanent ceasefire, even though the published text indicates that it does. It is not clear how the US “bridging proposal,” which has not been published, seeks to resolve these issues. Blinken is scheduled to meet Defense Minister Yoav Gallant in Tel Aviv shortly after 4 p.m.

Binkin last chance for a cease ceasefire

Any deal would have to be accepted by Netanyahu and Yahya Sinwar, who helped mastermind the Oct. 7 attack and became Hamas’ overall leader after Haniyeh was killed. Netanyahu faces intense pressure from families of the hostages and much of the Israeli public to make a deal to bring them home. But far-right leaders in his coalition have threatened to bring down the government if he concedes too much, forcing early elections that could drive him from power. Sinwar, meanwhile, is hiding in Gaza, likely deep inside Hamas’ vast network of tunnels, and has stuck to a hard line throughout the talks. He also tops Israel’s most-wanted list, raising questions about what happens if he is killed. In the past it has taken several days for Hamas’ negotiators to send proposals to Sinwar and receive his feedback. That means that even when the work of hammering out the latest proposal is completed, it would likely take a week or more for Hamas to formally respond to it. Palestinians in Gaza say they are exhausted and desperate for a cease-fire. When Hamas accepted an earlier proposal in May, spontaneous celebrations erupted — but those hopes were soon dashed .

Aid groups have called for a cease-fire since the start of the war, saying it’s the only way to ensure desperately needed food and humanitarian aid reaches Gaza. Experts have warned of famine and the outbreak of diseases like polio if the war drags on. Even if the fighting ends tomorrow, the U.N. has said it would take more than a decade and tens of billions of dollar to rebuild Gaza. In Israel, where many are still deeply traumatized by the Oct. 7 attack, there is widespread support for the war and little sympathy for the Palestinians. But the plight of the hostages has galvanized mass protests calling for a deal to bring them home and for the end of Netanyahu’s government, which many blame for the security and intelligence failures that allowed the attack to happen.

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Sinwar Needs To Surrender