Survey suggests November’s election is still a toss-up
Half of voters rate current economic conditions as ‘poor
Republican Presidential nominee Donald Trump leads Vice President Kamala Harris by a point in a new national poll by the New York Times and Siena College, as the US election enters its final stretch. The survey of 1,695 registered voters conducted Sept. 3-6 shows support for Trump at 48% against 47% for Harris, within the three-percentage point margin of error. The poll was carried out via telephone, using live interviewers, in English and Spanish. The poll shows 56% of registered voters say Trump would do a better job handling the economy, while 51% of voters rate current economic conditions as poor. The survey found that 28% of likely voters said they felt they needed to know more about Harris, who became the Democratic nominee when President Joe Biden announced in July he wouldn’t run again. Democrats had a slight edge in enthusiasm in the latest survey, with 91% saying they were enthusiastic about voting versus 85% of Republics.
Crude oil prices began the week with gains as traders took a break after the latest selloff and as a weather system in the Gulf of Mexico could become a hurricane before it makes landfall. “Crude oil recorded its biggest weekly fall in 11 months amid a darkening economic backdrop. Weak jobs data in the U.S. on Friday raised concerns over flagging oil demand in the world’s biggest consumer,” ANZ analysts said in a note cited by Reuters. The latest jobs report from the Labor Department, released on Friday, showed 142,000 new jobs were added in August, which was below expectations. However, unemployment rose less than forecast in the same month, keeping optimism alive about an interest rate cut soon. “OPEC+’s announcement to delay the start of its planned output increase signals that the producers’ group remains focused on balancing the market,” Morgan Stanley analysts said in a note quoted by Bloomberg. “Unless demand weakens more, we estimate Brent likely remains anchored around the mid-$70s.” It is worth noting that the selloff last week did not pause even after OPEC signaled it would not, after all, start returning supply to the market from October and even after the EIA reported yet another sizable draw in crude oil inventories for the last week of August. This week, three reports will move prices, including OPEC’s and the International Energy Agency’s latest monthly market updates. The Energy Information Administration is also scheduled to release its Short-Term Energy Outlook this week. OPEC and the EIA will release their reports on Tuesday. The IEA’s Oil Market Report is due out on Thursday.
The member of Israeli Knesset’s Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee from the ruling Likud party Nissim Vaturi said that it is a “matter of days” before a full-scale war between Israel and Lebanon breaks out. Vaturi told Kan, Israel’s public broadcaster, that in case the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah escalates into war, the militant organization’s stronghold in Beirut’s Dahiyeh neighborhood “will look like Gaza.” Vaturi said Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told Israeli military officials during a briefing on Sunday that Israel “must end this saga” in a possible reference to the ongoing conflict with Hezbollah along the border with Lebanon. “There is no other way,” Vaturi stated, arguing in favor of a preemptive strike against Hezbollah that would culminate in a ground invasion.
Barrage of Rockets Launched From Lebanon Into Israel
Hezbollah bombed two Israeli settlements in northern Israel on Sunday, escalating tensions between the militant group and Israel. The group launched rockets at Kiryat Shmona and Shamir, saying the attacks were retaliation for Israeli raids, including one on Saturday which injured emergency workers in the Lebanese village of Froun. Hezbollah’s statement emphasized that these strikes were a direct response to Israel’s recent actions in southern Lebanon, with the most recent Israeli attack targeting buildings in Aitaroun, Maroun al-Ras and Yaroun. NN: Peace peace peace their will be no peace.
Israel on Sunday temporarily closed all its border crossings with Jordan following an attack at the Allenby Bridge, where a gunman from Jordan killed three Israeli security guards before being shot dead. The Israel Airport Authority confirmed the closure of all border points with Jordan in response to the attack after initially just one crossing was shuttered.
Netanyahu vows action after border attack
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addressed the recent attack near Jordan’s border, which killed three Israeli security guards. In his statement, Netanyahu emphasized Israel’s commitment to defeating Hamas, recovering all hostages and ensuring Gaza no longer poses a threat to Israel. This statement came amid one of Israel’s largest protests, with thousands of people demonstrating against Netanyahu’s handling of negotiations with Hamas.
Israel attacked 14 Iranian tankers to disrupt oil exports, according to Lieutenant General Hossein Salami, commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Salami stated that the attacks occurred in the Red and Mediterranean Seas, targeting Iran’s efforts to export oil. He also claimed that Israel suffered damage to 12 of its own ships in the process. Iranian-backed forces, including Hezbollah and the Houthis, have declared their support for the Palestinians, with the Houthis specifically targeting Israeli-linked ships in the Red Sea and beyond.. NN: Sooner or later they will get around to attacking Iranian oil. just like Ukraine is attacking Russian oil.
Hedge funds turned the least bullish on crude in records going back more than 13 years on the prospect of swelling supplies and waning demand. Money managers decreased their combined positions on Brent and West Texas Intermediate oil by 99,889 lots to a total net-long position of 139,242 lots, according to ICE Futures Europe and CFTC data for the week ended Sept. 3. That’s the lowest in data stretching back to March 2011.
The souring sentiment comes amid a plunge in prices in recent weeks, driven by worries about demand in the US and China and exacerbated by heavy selling from algorithmic-based funds. Inflaming the negative sentiment was a potential deal to restore Libya’s production as well as the possibility OPEC+ would increase output next month. The group has since paused the plan to revive production, but the reversal has failed to increase prices.
The souring sentiment comes amid a plunge in prices in recent weeks, driven by worries about demand in the US and China and exacerbated by heavy selling from algorithmic-based funds. Inflaming the negative sentiment was a potential deal to restore Libya’s production as well as the possibility OPEC+ would increase output next month. The group has since paused the plan to revive production, but the reversal has failed to increase prices.
Hedge funds and portfolio managers have significantly reduced their long positions in oil futures over the past two months due to concerns about slowing demand and rising supply.
Bearish sentiment in the oil market has been fueled by weak manufacturing data from China and the United States, an end to Libya’s production halt.
Oil prices have plummeted to a 9-month low, erasing all gains from 2024, despite OPEC+’s decision to delay output hikes.
Despite a slight uptick in bullish bets last week, portfolio managers have slashed their long positions in oil futures over the past two months, fearing slowing demand and rising supply. In the week to August 27, hedge funds and commodity trading advisors were net buyers of the equivalent of 32 million barrels in the six most traded crude and petroleum futures, following net selling of 48 million barrels during the previous week, per data from trade exchanges compiled by energy analyst John Kemp in his blog. Yet, the buying in the latest reporting week did little to reverse the more than halving of the bullish bets in oil futures since early July.
Traders continue to be highly bearish on oil amid concerns about global oil demand, especially in the world’s top crude oil importer, China. The prospect of OPEC+ adding more supply has also weighed on sentiment this week, but today, OPEC+ decided to delay output hikes for at least another two months.
Traders and analysts fear that the market won’t absorb additional barrels amid slower-than-expected demand and rising non-OPEC+ supply, especially from North America and South America—the U.S., Canada, Brazil, and Guyana. In the week to August 27, hedge funds and other portfolio managers added fresh longs in Brent Crude, driven by the halt to part of Libya’s oil production over a political standoff between the rival governments in the east and west. As a result, the net long position – the difference between bullish and bearish bets – jumped by 31% to 81,000 lots in the week to August 27. At the same time, demand for the U.S. benchmark WTI was relatively muted. Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, wrote in a commentary on traders’ positioning.
Overall, the combined net long at 267,000 lots “remains near the bottom of the long-term range due to relatively weak price action, as traders remain skeptical about crude’s upside potential amid OPEC+ production increases and China’s demand softness,” Hansen said.
The positioning of the hedge funds is so bearish that there is more than sufficient headroom to cut shorts and add longs.
But since August 27, the end of the latest reporting period, more bearish news and data have piled up to further weigh on market sentiment and oil prices. It will take a bullish end-of-summer demand reading in the coming weeks and signs of falling commercial inventories globally to lift oil prices and make traders more bullish on the commodity.
NN: Bend over gab your ankles grit your teeth and prepare for incoming…… I will be providing you live commentary after the NY opening.
Hamas propaganda video. Pulling on the heart strings of the gullible masses
WASHINGTON (AP) — The Biden administration and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu were sharply at odds Thursday over prospects of reaching a deal for a Gaza cease-fire and hostage release, with Netanyahu saying it was “exactly inaccurate” that a breakthrough was close.
“There’s not a deal in the making,” Netanyahu said in an interview with “Fox and Friends.” His public skepticism comes as U.S. officials said they were working on a revised proposal to address remaining disputes between Israeli and Hamas leaders after the weekend discovery of six dead hostages added urgency to the talks.
National security spokesman John Kirby reiterated Thursday that only disagreements on “implementing details” of a cease-fire proposal need to be hammered out. “I’ve heard what the prime minister said. I’m not going to get into a back and forth with him in a public setting,” Kirby told reporters. “We still believe, though this is incredibly difficult … if there’s compromise, if there’s leadership, we can still get there.” President Joe Biden’s team, a lame-duck administration two months before the election, has projected optimism this summer as it works with fellow mediators Egypt and Qatar to try to get Israel and Hamas to agree to a truce in the 11-month war in Gaza. The deal would release more of the hostages taken by Hamas during its Oct. 7 attack on Israel, including Americans, in exchange for Palestinian prisoners — one of the big sticking points. U.S. officials said in the days before Israeli forces recovered the bodies of six recently slain hostages, including Israeli-American Hersh Goldberg-Polin, that Israeli and Hamas leaders could sign off on a deal as soon as the end of this week. “I’m optimistic. It’s far from over. Just a couple more issues. I think we’ve got a shot,” Biden told reporters last Friday.
“To ask Israel to make concessions after this murder is to send a message to Hamas: Murder more hostages, you’ll get more concessions,” Netanyahu said Thursday. “That’s the wrong thing to do, and I think the Israel public overwhelming is united against that.”
The Biden administration has stressed that its ally Israel has supported the negotiations and Hamas has been blocking a deal. This week, however, Biden said “no” when asked if Netanyahu was doing enough in the talks.
“We see time and again that Israel agrees to certain terms,” said Shira Efron, a policy adviser at the U.S.-based Israel Policy Forum, which analyzes Israeli-Palestinian relations. “It doesn’t say no, it agrees to certain terms — but then says, ‘Yes, but under those conditions.’”
“These public statements that come out after what seems to be an agreement … basically derail the agreement,” Efron said NN: Their in no deal. And deal making with terrorists…. Only brings more terrorism. Hamas only has so many hostage cards to play. And no other cards. They will never give up all there cads. Its a matter of survival. They know their days are numbered. Hence their desperate savagery and phycological ware fare!
Billionaire entrepreneur Elon Musk wrote on X that United States Vice President and Democratic nominee in the 2024 presidential election Kamala Harris intends to “destroy” the right to free speech “under the constitution.” Musk, an outspoken critic of the Democratic Party, responded to another X user who mentioned him, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and Tulsi Gabbard as “raising concerns” about the freedom of speech in the US if Harris becomes president.The world’s wealthiest individual repeatedly criticized Harris and the Democratic Party for their stance toward free speech. Warning they support censorship and the erosion of constitutional liberties.
