The United States government seems to be nearing a ceasefire agreement in Gaza to stop offensive operations, facilitate the release of hostages and increase the delivery of humanitarian aid, according to a US official to the journalist David Ignatius from The Washington Post on Thursday. According to the journalist, the source stated that “the framework is agreed” and negotiations on how to implement the agreement are underway. The plan, detailed by US officials to Ignatius on Wednesday proposes a three-phase solution to the conflict. Initially, there would be a six-week ceasefire during which Hamas would free 33 Israeli hostages, including all women, men over 50, and the injured. In return, Israel would release “hundreds” of Palestinian prisoners and pull its troops back from densely populated areas to the eastern Gaza border. Humanitarian aid would be allowed in, hospitals would be fixed, and rubble clearance would start.
Gallant: Israel opens short ‘window’ for hostage deal with Hamas
Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant stated on Wednesday that its military created a “limited window of opportunity” for Israel to pursue the hostage deal with the Palestinian militant group Hamas, which would secure the return of 120 captives held in the Gaza Strip. “The conditions that will be created as a result of the deal will advance our national and security interests, and regarding the risks that may arise – the IDF and security forces know how to overcome them,” Gallant said at a graduation ceremony at the Israel National Defense College, stressing that it is Israel’s “moral” and “ethical” duty to facilitate the return of hostages. Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah previously noted that the Lebanese militant group would cease its attacks on Israel in case Hamas and Israel agree to a ceasefire. NN: Info i have suggests their is defiantly a deal in the works. Biden is desperate for win before he locks up reading his lines off of Q cards.
Israel’s Ambassador to the United States Mike Herzog claimed on Wednesday that US President Joe Biden is pushing for a ceasefire and hostage agreement between Hamas and Israel to be reached in order to strengthen his position and gain political credit if his efforts result in a successful outcome. “Biden will see it as an achievement and will want to take credit. It is not the main reason, but of course, there is a political dimension to it,” Herzog told Israel’s Army Radio. Furthermore, the envoy admitted that there are disagreements between the US and Israel over the war in Gaza, but went on to stress that relations between the two countries remain “strong.” NN: The world is sleeping
Oil fell as Hurricane Beryl looked less likely to pose major disruptions to crude infrastructure in Texas. West Texas Intermediate as of this posting is trading. Around $81 a barrel at key support levels after four straight weekly gains. Concerns that Hurricane Beryl would impede oil operations in the Gulf of Mexico and Texas helped drive up futures last week. Still, weakening product spreads indicate the storm has been less disruptive to infrastructure than expected. Still, exports may face delays after the Port of Houston and Port of Corpus Christi were shut down — the Port of Houston will remain closed, but the Port of Corpus Christi has reopened. About 85% of Houston has lost power, forcing oil companies to adjust operations. In addition to Hurricane Beryl, wildfires in Canada have started to threaten output. Oil touched the highest since late April last week, with money managers increasing their net-long positions on Brent for a fourth week, on expectations for higher demand and lower stockpiles over the summer months. Still, the rally has faced resistance from signs of weakness in China. The push and pull have limited the number of big moves in prices and sent a gauge of volatility to the lowest level since 2019 on Friday. Traders are in line for multiple reports this week that will shed light on global crude balances. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries — which has been choking off output to bolster prices — delivers its monthly outlook Wednesday, and the International Energy Agency releases forecasts Thursday. There will be a snapshot from the US Energy Information Administration as well.
United States President Joe Biden insisted in a letter he sent to the Democratic members of Congress and published on Monday that he is “firmly committed to staying in this race,” referring to this year’s election for head of state, “to the end, and to beating [his predecessor and the presumptive Republican nominee] Donald Trump.” “I have heard the concerns that people have … I am not blind to them,” Biden wrote. “I can respond to all this by saying clearly and unequivocally: I wouldn’t be running again if I did not absolutely believe I was the best person to beat Donald Trump in 2024. … Any weakening of resolve or lack of clarity about the task ahead only helps Trump and hurts us.” Biden’s letter came in response to concerns about his health and, therefore, ability to run in the election and resume his presidency following his performance in the first debate against Trump. NN: Only 2 people can get Biden out of the race…. GOD and Biden.
The number of supertankers headed for China dropped to the lowest in almost two years, adding to recent concerns about demand in the largest oil importer during the second half of the year. Only 86 of the tankers are indicating China as their next destination in the coming three months, shrinking by five from last week. That is the lowest weekly tally since August 2022 in data compiled by Bloomberg. The outlook for Chinese demand this half is showing signs of softness, potentially providing a headwind for crude prices. Concerns include slower-than-expected return of refineries from seasonal maintenance, softer purchases from some key suppliers in July, and a potential drop-off in monthly import volumes. Some 35 tankers are headed for the US, dipping by two from a week ago. Fourteen vessels sailed for Angola, the highest rate since late-April. The southern African producer has been targeting increased exports since it left the OPEC+ producer group. Click here for a PDF giving more details on destinations. A total of 546 vessels signaled future destinations on Friday in data based on vessels with arrival dates through Oct. 3 on MAP. Journeys are subject to change, and 37 of the tankers didn’t provide a clear destination. NN: After we get vacation time and the war out of the way we will be back to our CHINA binary trade,
Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich said on Monday that his country must continue with the war against Hamas in the Gaza Strip “until victory” is achieved. “Hamas is collapsing and begging for a ceasefire. This is the moment to squeeze the neck until we crush and break the enemy,” Smotrich posted on X, formerly known as Twitter. He pointed out that it would be “senseless” to halt the fighting now, “before the end” and let Hamas “recover to fight us again.” Smotrich’s comments come following reports claiming that Hamas gave initial approval to the ceasefire and hostage deal presented by United States President Joe Biden.
Lower oil prices and a focus on shareholder returns are leading US oil companies to drill less, slowing production growth.
Efficiency gains have partially offset the decline in drilling activity.
Natural gas production has fallen year-over-year due to low prices earlier in 2024.
Slowing drilling activity in the U.S. shale patch is capping oil production growth while natural gas output is down from year-ago levels amid above-average inventories and unsustainably low prices earlier this year. Oil and gas prices have dropped since the highs from the summer of 2022 when they spiked following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The decline in U.S. benchmark oil and gas prices over the past nearly two years has reduced – with a lag – drilling activity in the shale patch. America’s oil and gas production hit record highs at the end of 2023 and continues to be close to all-time highs, but growth has slowed down in oil output while gas production has started to fall after a mild 2023/2024 winter boosted inventories to above-average levels and sunk Henry Hub gas prices to $1.80 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in February 2024, compared to $9 / MMBtu in August 2022. Crude oil production from the Lower 48 basins, which exclude the federal offshore Gulf of Mexico, increased by 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) in April 2024 from the same month in 2023. But in April last year, the annual growth in the Lower 48 output stood at 900,000 bpd, per EIA data cited by Reuters market analyst John Kemp. The number of oil rigs currently stands at 479—down by 66 compared to this time last year, according to the latest Baker Hughes data. Despite the decline in the number of oil rigs, U.S. oil production has grown compared to year-ago levels, mostly thanks to efficiency gains, analysts say. Amid the ongoing consolidation in the American oil and gas industry, producers have become bigger and are focusing on shareholder returns. They wouldn’t be inclined to respond to every price spike with a major boost in drilling that ultimately floods the market with oil and depresses prices. The big companies are looking to become bigger by adding premier assets of the takeover targets to their portfolios. And the key driver of the industry now is returning more to shareholders and preparing for inventory stacked up for years of production ahead, without the need to grow organically by investing too much cash flow into the drilling of new locations and wells. In the second quarter of the year, oil production was essentially unchanged from the first quarter, amid a modest rise in the overall business activity index, according to oil and gas executives responding to the latest Dallas Fed Energy Survey.
“WTI (West Texas Intermediate) crude and Henry Hub natural gas pricing directly affects our business as we are operating existing wells and providing cash flow to investors,” an executive at an exploration and production (E&P) firm said in comments to the survey.
Another E&P executive added, “The last few years of mergers and acquisitions have decreased activity in the oil patch. The majors are not going to exhaust reserves to raise domestic production until supply and demand curves meet their goals.” “They do not have to participate in treadmill drilling to keep incomes at a pace to develop reserves and pay back loans.” So, growth in shale production is set to slow down. Lower 48 oil production growth exceeded expectations in 2023, adding 900,000 bpd of supply last year, but Wood Mackenzie expects Lower 48 oil production to grow by just 270,000 bpd in 2024 and another 330,000 bpd in 2025. Major natural gas producers curtailed some output in the spring in response to the price slump earlier this year, which saw prices tumble to a three-decade low. In its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, the EIA expects U.S. marketed natural gas production to drop by 1% this year, led by a 9% decline in the Haynesville region and 4% decline in the Appalachia region as some producers have limited development and production due to low natural gas prices. The current refill season has seen lower injections into storage so far, due to rising demand for gas-powered electricity in the summer heat waves. However, gas inventories are above average for this time of year, and working natural gas stocks for the week ending June 26 were 21% higher than the five-year average and 11% higher than last year at this time, per EIA data. The EIA expects storage inventories to end the summer injection season on October 31 at 6% above the five-year average. “If U.S. natural gas production is lower than our forecast and consumption in the electric power sector to meet air-conditioning demand increases more than we expect, natural gas prices could be higher than forecast,” the administration said. NN: After summer vacation driving/flying season is over the markets will be oversupplied. The next driver is the Jew Islam war.
Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant told the families of hostages held by Hamas on Thursday that a deal to release them is “closer than ever.” “A month ago I was pessimistic about our chances of reaching a deal anytime soon. One of my prime goals in all of my meetings in the United States was to put pressure on Hamas to come to a deal with the understanding that there’s not going to be a better deal,” Gallant said as quoted by Channel 12. “Today, and I’m saying this cautiously, we’re closer than ever,” he added. The comments come after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu confirmed he approved sending a delegation of negotiators to discuss Hamas’ latest proposal on a ceasefire and freeing hostages with the mediators from the United States, Qatar and Egypt. Earlier media reports suggested Israeli officials said the proposal is positive and allows the talks to move forward.
Israel reportedly okays sending delegation for individual talks
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu approved sending the country’s delegation for individual negotiations on the hostage deal, Axios reporter Barak Ravid shared citing sources from the prime minister’s office. According to the sources, the decision comes following Hamas’ latest response. “Important progress has been made, but there is still a significant way to go with serious challenges,” Israeli officials previously mentioned. Even with the most recent unfoldings, officials are still expecting the talks to be “tough” and last for a couple of weeks.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu underscored an aggressive stance in a recent briefing with national air force leaders on Thursday, emphasizing a new guiding principle in response to the ongoing combats with Hezbollah along the Lebanon border. “Whoever harms us, his blood is on his head,” Netanyahu declared, signaling a zero-tolerance policy towards any aggression and affirming Israel’s determination to retaliate decisively against any threats. “We have put this into practice,” said Netanyahu in Kirya in Tel Aviv, stressing that Israel is “determined to restore security to the north and return the residents safely to their homes.” Concerns of full-scale war between Israel and the Hamas-allied militant group Hezbollah in Lebanon have increased after an Israeli airstrike killed a senior Hezbollah commander. The US underlined there is no desire for war to spread in the Middle East while Iran said to be ready to support Hezbollah if needed.
Hezbollah says it launched more than 200 missiles and a “swarm of drones” targeting Israeli army positions, as hostilities between the two intensify. The Iran-backed group said it fired on targets in northern Israel and the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights. Hezbollah said it was responding to the assassination of a senior commander called Mohammed Nasser in southern Lebanon in Wednesday. The Israeli military reported sirens sounding in northern parts of the country and said it was striking launch sites in Lebanon. The two sides have been exchanging fire since the start of the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza, with Hezbollah acting in solidarity with the Islamist group. Hezbollah, like Hamas, is designated as a terrorist organization by the US. NN: Things are heating up. You will know it’s for real when they hit a few skyscrapers in Tel Aviv. . That is when the Lefty Liberals will figure surrendering to terrorists for hostages release only brings more terrorism.